WHat do you mean by "typically"? Please give me a list of games of similar scope/scale of Clair Obscur that failed.
'Failed' is too strong a word so i'll go back on what I said - not seeing the same level of success [as Clair Obscur], or what would be expected from a mainline FF, would be more accurate.
I've already mentioned several games within the same genre which paint a picture of what typical recent JRPG sales look like eg. Persona 3 Reload, SMT Vengeance, Yakuza: Like a Dragon + Infinite Wealth, and Metaphor have all barely exceeded 2 million units.
At 3.3 mil Clair is tracking beyond most of its peers, including long established franchises by major developers. As you say: "that's freaking awesome", but it also isn't suggestive of a trend. People are taking one game as a signal that turn-based is back, when it was already here with unimpressive sales...
The fact that subsequent games did about as well should be an indicator that it wasn't some freak accident (aka, lighting in a bottle).
FFVII - 10 mil
FFVIII - 8.6 mil
FFIX - 5.1 mil
What sales analyst would consider a near 50% decline in the following two entries, and then not being able to regain the same 10 mil peak for nearly 20 years as "about as well"?
What sales analyst would consider peaks getting progressively lower across the generations (10 mil for FFVII -> 8.5 mil for FFX -> 7 mil for FFXIII) as "about as well"? It's a description of a bear market if ever there was one.
As an aside, lightning in a bottle isn't the same meaning as "freak accident". I feel it's worth pointing this out because you're acting like my usage of the idiom is some affront to the games.
lightning in a bottle
to succeed in a way that is very lucky or unlikely
freak accident
something bad that happens that is extremely unlikely and so would have been hard to prevent
Both describe the unlikelihood of an event, but a freak accident couches it in negative terms, while lightning in a bottle is considered positive.
Capturing lightning in a bottle is still an accomplishment albeit an unlikely one. It also doesn't necessarily mean everything just goes back to normal afterwards. There can be longer term consequences, eg. a failing writer suddenly breaks out with a smash hit book which spawns a successful series.
FFVI with 870k overseas sales going to FFVII with 5.8mil overseas sales, popularizing the series and JRPGs for millions beyond Japan, almost certainly counts.
Perhaps Clair Obscur will signal a new trend. And I would welcome it. But we don't know. Because we aren't at the finding out stage yet.
Additionally, Clair Obscur sold over 3.3 million copies in 33 days. Final Fantasy XVI is estimated to have sold between 3.4 - 4.1 million copies since it was released two years ago. How expected do you think that was?
Why should I comment on speculation and not concrete numbers? FF16 sales figures have not been disclosed. All we know is that it sold in one week (3 million) what Clair Obscur sold in one month, and what nearly all of Sega's RPGs released in the last few years have failed to do yet in their lifetime.
Context is also important. You're comparing a game released exclusively on one platform for $70 with one released multiplatform for a budget price of $50. All of these factors can affect sales success moreso than the type of combat system, and i'm surprised (or not) that it hasn't been brought up yet.
Final Fantasy VII was released in 1997 when the gaming industry was much smaller. It had a more limited global reach, fewer distribution options, and no digital storefronts. Selling over 10 million units back then was a monumental achievement. Final Fantasy VIII got close to that, as did Final Fantasy X. Final Fantasy XV, on the other hand, released in 2016 in a vastly different environment. It had a decade-long development cycle, a massive marketing budget, and access to a much larger gaming audience across multiple platforms including digital sales, and PC. Despite all of those advantages, it only managed to match the raw sales total of a game from two decades prior (and marginally surpass two others). There were approximately 300 million console and PC gamers around 2005. There are almost 2.5 billion console and PC gamers now. And yet Final Fantasy XV did about the same numbers as Final Fantasy VII through X, and Final Fantasy XVI has sold less copies than any single game from Final Fantasy VII through Final Fantasy X. That signals stagnation, not growth.
Thanks for describing exactly why VII can be considered lighting in a bottle!
Clair Obscur: ~3.3 million
Final Fantasy VII: ~10 million
Final Fantasy VIII: ~8.6 million
Final Fantasy IX: ~5.1 million
Final Fantasy X: ~8.5 million
^ By the way, if 10 million sales in 2016 isn't as impressive as 10 million in 1997, then why are we acting like 3.3 million in 2025 is at all up there with the 1997?
Really gets the noggin joggin.
Something you are not considering is that Final Fantasy XV also is a worse reviewed game, both by critics and consumers alike. But I can see why you would want to frame your argument the way you did. Anything to paint that game in a good light, huh?
I didn't consider it because it's
completely irrelevant to a discussion revolving around sales.
Square Enix have access to the figures and has a whole department doing market research. Why is there this conspiratorial idea that they are just stubbornly acting against what people want rather than following trends in their own data?
If the market says turn-based will make FF17 a big seller, that's what they'll do. But the market after XV released and sold 10 million suggested they do otherwise.
And "insulting" games? Get a grip.