Geez, I guess it will sound horribly slanted, but....do you really think that Pikmin's head start means anything? This industry is unhealthily obsessed with "The New" and the only thing an August/September launch guarantees is that the game will be a non-factor in the holiday sales season. I am not so sure that even Fable will make much of a difference for Xbox. KOTOR saw a late summer release last year, and while it continued to prosper over Christmas I don't believe it really helped move Xboxes off of shelves.
After two months, a game has pretty much blown its load, unless it ignites an exceptionally large sensation (as was the case with GTA and Halo). Game releases are becoming as "front-loaded" as Hollywood movies.I'm not really talking about software sales alone, but the synergy between software and hardware. I don't think that Pikmin and Paper Mario are going to motivate consumers to buy Cubes. Metroid is the only big title with mainstream appeal, which is why I have characterized it as being the title that Nintendo is banking on this holiday season.