So far, I'm 1 for 1. I backed Skullgirls PC and that seems to have worked out.
Still waiting on:
Yatagarasu (I wish this was on greenlight)
Hyper Light Drifter
Shantae
Soul Saga
MIghty No. 9
Normally I agree with you -- there's no reason to pre-order in a lot of cases. Unless you plan on picking the game up day 1 in the first place or there's some other incentive that makes it worth your while.
I kickstarted a couple of games myself, but I wouldn't get upset if it went wrong.
I also Kickstarted Skullgirls, and I'm pretty happy with that. At least you have good taste.