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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

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GhaleonEB

Member
The factors you listed are all pretty long term, and have been simmering for a while. Even if they impact the market by -10% suddenly, it seems unlikely that it would be in that time frame.

I've maintained a scheduled periodic investment through two market crashes now, and looking back that's served me far better than had I tried to time things. I've concluded there's no way I'm going to beat the market, at least not for long.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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DOW dipped 10% or close to 10% three times since 2011, two in 2012, so it's not like a huge crash. Plus, the dow dipped nearly 6% twice in the past two months.

I use an exponential moving average with a 100 day period as a guideline look at the past 6 to 12 months. When the DOW hits it or goes below it to me it is a buying opportunity. That happened each month since June, except in July. Since I invest monthly, it's not like I'm really timing the market, I invest monthly anyway, but wait for such cases to buy, meaning I buy once a month but will adjust the timing. I just prefer buying when people are selling, which always happens anyway.

I didn't say I would only buy if it dipped 10%.
 
F

Flo_Evans

Member
Mengy said:
Yeah, back when I bought into GOOG some part of me wanted to sell my entire portfolio and stuff it all into Google, but "never put your eggs into one basket" kept popping into my head so I didn't.

If only I had, wow. I mean don't get me wrong I've almost doubled the money I put into Google now, so I'm not too upset. But that profit could have been so much greater if I had only gone with my gut feeling.

Part of me wants to sell it all now and put all my money into GOOG even today, even at almost $1K per share. Is that as crazy as it sounds? Or will it keep going up and up and away?
Click to expand...

IDK, I might get off and look for something else (I bought GOOG @ $700). I really want to add more cash to my portfolio and get more stocks but I am trying to pay down some debt 1st. When your investments beat your debts though its like fuck it, go on margin!

Kind of want to get back into AMZN. I bought it at $200 and sold for $250.

Anytime I get 25%-50% profits I think of selling. But I think you are better off just sticking with "good" stocks than constantly messing around.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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If you want a 3D printing IPO, there was one today. High risk of course. VJET Up 128% from its IPO, 28% if you had bought at opening. I'm thinking of putting maybe just a tiny sum in it, see where it goes.
 
P

Piecake

Member
Ive decided to go 100% stock. 50% total market, 50% international market index funds

I was previously at about 85/15 stocks bonds, because having bonds was recommended, but Ive been thinking about it for a while and it really doesnt make a whole lot of sense for a guy in his late 20s. I have about 30-40 years before I am going to touch this so whats the point of holding bonds when they are very likely to get a lower return than stocks? Time is my hedge right now. Now, when I am in my 50s its going to be a good idea to put money into bonds since time is no longer an awesome hedge, but right now? I don't see it, and I won't be stupid enough to sell during a massive slump
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Piecake said:
Ive decided to go 100% stock. 50% total market, 50% international market index funds

I was previously at about 85/15 stocks bonds, because having bonds was recommended, but Ive been thinking about it for a while and it really doesnt make a whole lot of sense for a guy in his late 20s. I have about 30-40 years before I am going to touch this so whats the point of holding bonds when they are very likely to get a lower return than stocks? Time is my hedge right now. Now, when I am in my 50s its going to be a good idea to put money into bonds since time is no longer an awesome hedge, but right now? I don't see it, and I won't be stupid enough to sell during a massive slump
Click to expand...
This is my thinking as well. I currently hold around 10% of my total ROTHs in bonds, but starting January I think I'm going to just turn off the contributions to it and go stock only until my mid 40's. I'll keep the money I have in the bond fund, but the share of my portfolio will drop. I'll phase into (and up to) about 15% bonds when I get into mid to late 40's. (Which is not that far away, as I'm 36 now; planning to retire at 56.)
 
T

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Ether_Snake said:
Gold rallying today, for whatever reason.
Click to expand...

Eh, long term it's in the process of a multi-year bubble burst. Someone on GAF kept telling people to buy gold a year ago and I warned him that it was a bubble...even to the point that it was following the bull trap pattern.

People invest in things they don't understand. Gold is a material. It does not create wealth. It does not have a profit or revenue stream. It's just stuff, and stuff doesn't change value.
 
T

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Piecake said:
Ive decided to go 100% stock. 50% total market, 50% international market index funds

I was previously at about 85/15 stocks bonds, because having bonds was recommended, but Ive been thinking about it for a while and it really doesnt make a whole lot of sense for a guy in his late 20s. I have about 30-40 years before I am going to touch this so whats the point of holding bonds when they are very likely to get a lower return than stocks? Time is my hedge right now. Now, when I am in my 50s its going to be a good idea to put money into bonds since time is no longer an awesome hedge, but right now? I don't see it, and I won't be stupid enough to sell during a massive slump
Click to expand...

If you have a 10+ year time horizon, always go 100% stock. Bonds lose real value long term. Inflation beats them narrowly...on average at least. If you just sample the 1980s of course it's different.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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VJET (small 3D printing company from germany) rises another 30% today after doubling last friday on its IPO. Bought some at 32$.

.com bubble all over again, woooooooo
 
F

FlashFlooder

Member
teh_pwn said:
If you have a 10+ year time horizon, always go 100% stock. Bonds lose real value long term. Inflation beats them narrowly...on average at least. If you just sample the 1980s of course it's different.
Click to expand...

I agree, plus bonds are due for a major crash whenever the Fed inevitably stops the printing presses.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
teh_pwn said:
If you have a 10+ year time horizon, always go 100% stock. Bonds lose real value long term. Inflation beats them narrowly...on average at least. If you just sample the 1980s of course it's different.
Click to expand...

After that 10 year horizon is where I get a bit worried about the mix. For the kids college funds, I'm going with pure US stock and international index funds, for now. Then planning to transition 10% to a bond fund each year they are in high school, to slowly stabilize the balance. So they'll have 40/60 or maybe 50/50 by the time they're in college and need to start drawing the funds down. At least, that's the current plan.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
I'm happy cos I'm almost back to October 2012 levels with AAPL lol :p Yeah NFLX is the bigger news tho but I have more shares of the former lol
 
F

Flo_Evans

Member
Wish I would of bought AAPL back when it hit $400 like I said I was going to.

Might be a buying opportunity tomorrow if the conference blows.
 
P

Piecake

Member
GhaleonEB said:
After that 10 year horizon is where I get a bit worried about the mix. For the kids college funds, I'm going with pure US stock and international index funds, for now. Then planning to transition 10% to a bond fund each year they are in high school, to slowly stabilize the balance. So they'll have 40/60 or maybe 50/50 by the time they're in college and need to start drawing the funds down. At least, that's the current plan.
Click to expand...

I really like the concept of a TIPS fund. Once I get to that 10 year countdown, I think im gong to do a half and half split between a Total bond and a TIPS bond fund. Yea, nothing to do with timing, just the makeup of the bonds when that time comes
 
M

MesserWolf

Member
teh_pwn said:
Eh, long term it's in the process of a multi-year bubble burst. Someone on GAF kept telling people to buy gold a year ago and I warned him that it was a bubble...even to the point that it was following the bull trap pattern.

People invest in things they don't understand. Gold is a material. It does not create wealth. It does not have a profit or revenue stream. It's just stuff, and stuff doesn't change value.
Click to expand...

Gold is not a commodity like the others tho.

It is considered also as an hedge against inflation. It has a double nature of commodity/currency somewhat.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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What's the logic there? It opened much higher and everyone sold off to the point where it's now lower than yesterday's close?:p
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Ether_Snake said:
What's the logic there? It opened much higher and everyone sold off to the point where it's now lower than yesterday's close?:p
Click to expand...

Profit taking. Stock has had a crazy run and then you had the CEO yesterday saying the share price was too high. Never seen that before lol
 
E

EmptySpace

Banned
so where does one start with investing?

EmptySpace knows at least some of the jargon since he took some financial markets courses in university. what's the ideal amount to start with? he's very risk-averse, so bonds as a first-timer would be good? money market just to get the feet wet? or etfs?

or should EmptySpace read more books to get more of an idea?
 
P

Piecake

Member
H

Husker86

Member
EmptySpace said:
so where does one start with investing?

EmptySpace knows at least some of the jargon since he took some financial markets courses in university. what's the ideal amount to start with? he's very risk-averse, so bonds as a first-timer would be good? money market just to get the feet wet? or etfs?

or should EmptySpace read more books to get more of an idea?
Click to expand...

I just started about a year ago with my job's retirement benefits and now branched out adding a Roth IRA and some non-retirement investing.

I recommend finding a company that has commission free ETFs. I personally use Fidelity and they offer a nice selection of commission free ETFs so any trades you do will not cost anything extra.

I went with S&P500 ETFs. I started with mostly the large cap ones and smaller shares of the small cap. I have moved over more of non-retirement account to small cap because it has been and is currently kicking ass. Large cap would be lower risk and they are doing well too.

Obviously I don't have a huge amount of experience, but if you are in it for the long-term I think you would be relatively safe going for large cap ETFs. I haven't put anything in bonds since I'm 27 and am more focused on growth now. I can't tell you if that is stupid or not but bonds just didn't make sense to me at this point.

Vanguard also has commission free trades on their ETFs but they have a minimum of $3,000 I think. very low fees though.

Do not do mutual funds. I have researched a reasonable amount and have not found any convincing evidence to go with mutual funds over ETFs.
 
L

luckyboyceo

Member
EmptySpace said:
so where does one start with investing?

EmptySpace knows at least some of the jargon since he took some financial markets courses in university. what's the ideal amount to start with? he's very risk-averse, so bonds as a first-timer would be good? money market just to get the feet wet? or etfs?

or should EmptySpace read more books to get more of an idea?
Click to expand...
I think you can open an account at most firms with a deposit of $1000. That's what I started with and it was enough to allow me to learn the basics of investing without risking any relatively large sum of money.
 
E

EmptySpace

Banned
Husker86 said:
I just started about a year ago with my job's retirement benefits and now branched out adding a Roth IRA and some non-retirement investing.

I recommend finding a company that has commission free ETFs. I personally use Fidelity and they offer a nice selection of commission free ETFs so any trades you do will not cost anything extra.

I went with S&P500 ETFs. I started with mostly the large cap ones and smaller shares of the small cap. I have moved over more of non-retirement account to small cap because it has been and is currently kicking ass. Large cap would be lower risk and they are doing well too.

Obviously I don't have a huge amount of experience, but if you are in it for the long-term I think you would be relatively safe going for large cap ETFs. I haven't put anything in bonds since I'm 27 and am more focused on growth now. I can't tell you if that is stupid or not but bonds just didn't make sense to me at this point.

Vanguard also has commission free trades on their ETFs but they have a minimum of $3,000 I think. very low fees though.

Do not do mutual funds. I have researched a reasonable amount and have not found any convincing evidence to go with mutual funds over ETFs.
Click to expand...

so vanguard s&p etf?

a brokerage account is required for vanguard in canada, psh. have to go through bank. and there's not a lot of etfs to choose from, no global etfs either.

EmptySpace might read more for the time being and then invest in etfs.
 
H

Husker86

Member
EmptySpace said:
so vanguard s&p etf?

a brokerage account is required for vanguard in canada, psh. have to go through bank. and there's not a lot of etfs to choose from, no global etfs either.

EmptySpace might read more for the time being and then invest in etfs.
Click to expand...

I've never used Vanguard, just know they get a lot of praise. I find it hard to believe they have no global ETFs, hmmm. Or do you mean your bank that you have to use doesn't offer global?

These are the commission free ETFs that Fidelity, who I use, offer:
https://www.fidelity.com/etfs/ishares
 
P

Piecake

Member
Husker86 said:
I've never used Vanguard, just know they get a lot of praise. I find it hard to believe they have no global ETFs, hmmm. Or do you mean your bank that you have to use doesn't offer global?

These are the commission free ETFs that Fidelity, who I use, offer:
https://www.fidelity.com/etfs/ishares
Click to expand...

Canada's a special place of apparently ridiculous fees, little choice and a lot getting screwed over when it comes to mutual funds and etfs apparently.
 
E

EmptySpace

Banned
Husker86 said:
I've never used Vanguard, just know they get a lot of praise. I find it hard to believe they have no global ETFs, hmmm. Or do you mean your bank that you have to use doesn't offer global?

These are the commission free ETFs that Fidelity, who I use, offer:
https://www.fidelity.com/etfs/ishares
Click to expand...

individual investors can't open an account within vanguard canada unlike the usa, and this is the list of etfs they offer.

https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/etfs/etfs.htm

so is it then better to invest in vanguard usa-listed etfs instead of the canadian ones that trade in the tsx? it's kinda complicated to go that route. currency fluctuations, conversion fees, taxes, etc.
 
P

Piecake

Member
EmptySpace said:
individual investors can't open an account within vanguard canada unlike the usa, and this is the list of etfs they offer.

https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/etfs/etfs.htm

so is it then better to invest in vanguard usa-listed etfs instead of the canadian ones that trade in the tsx? it's kinda complicated to go that route. currency fluctuations, conversion fees, taxes, etc.
Click to expand...

If I were you Id try to find the simplest, easiest way to purchase low cost index funds. The lower and more diversified the better

Personally I like Total Us Stock and Total International Stock. I doubt they'd have exactly that up in canada, but yea, just go with big damn indexes since those best follow the market and are usually the cheapest.

I use Vanguard because I love the business model and want to support it. If supporting that in Canada means a gigantic clusterfuck for you then don't bother. Find the cheapest etf you can get and go with that
 
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