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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Ether_Snake

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With VJET in particular I have nothing but simply hoping that a rise in the 3D printing sector will make them grow. They were worth 1B yesterday, which is nuts for such a minuscule company probably not even worth 20M. Good thing I have only a small sum in there.

In other news:

People's Bank Of China Says No Longer in China’s ‘Favor’ to Boost Record

The People’s Bank of China signaled it no longer benefits China to increase its foreign currency reserves that now exceed a record $3.7 trillion.

“It’s no longer in China’s favor to accumulate foreign-exchange reserves,” Yi Gang, a deputy governor with the People’s Bank of China said in a speech organized by China Economists 50 Forum at Tsinghua University yesterday. “The marginal cost of accumulating foreign-exchange reserves has exceeded the marginal gains.”

[...]

Yi, who is also head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said in the speech that the appreciation of the yuan benefits more people in China than it hurts.
 

Piecake

Member
With VJET in particular I have nothing but simply hoping that a rise in the 3D printing sector will make them grow. They were worth 1B yesterday, which is nuts for such a minuscule company probably not even worth 20M. Good thing I have only a small sum in there.

In other news:

People's Bank Of China Says No Longer in China’s ‘Favor’ to Boost Record

Well, sounds like China might be tentatively shifting to consumer growth instead of export growth because the only reason why they were buying bonds was to lower their currency. If thats their plan, then I would say that is good news.
 

Ether_Snake

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Curious what the impacts would be, more imports I guess, higher demand for resources?

Maybe this will go towards what I had expected back in 2008 for the years to come: China competes with the rest of world (bringing wages down in the developed countries, among other things resulting from having to compete), and then when things have balanced a bit more it starts to increase domestic consumption. I expected much more degradation of working conditions in the first world before it would happen though. In the scenario I expected, China would have basically taken steps to incite people to go to work in China. If wages raise, I think China will do it. Brain drain to China. People would go to raise money then come back, pushing family-making to later. Much more likely to happen than a place like Dubai.

In turn, the demand should be good for Canada/Australia I guess, on the natural resources front. Nature is gonna get screwed though:/

Big Chinese companies are likely to grow as a result if this happens. The US, Korea and Japan might see some serious competition.

edit: sorry for the late edit:p
 

Piecake

Member
Curious what the impacts would be, more imports I guess, higher demand for resources?

Probably. Its going to be interesting what they are going to do about their environment when increasing domestic consumption would lead to an even shittier situation. I have a feeling that they probably don't want to switch the direction of their economy AND go green. That would be quite the shake-up. They really need to fix it though because besides the long term health costs, it creates a brain drain as well since who the hell would want their kids growing up in smogshit when you got the chance to leave? Some interesting decisions.

I have read that China has the largest deposit of shale gas in the world, so they could look into that. One huge issue with that is that shale drilling takes a shit ton of water and they already have a severe water shortage problem. I don't see shale gas being possible unless they come up with a new process or use ocean water or something.

Lol, we sort of took opposite takes after your edit. I honestly don't see China pushing wages down in the west more. Ive read recently that companies are actually considering moving production back to the states and movement has been happening on that front. The main drivers in this is energy costs (lot cheaper in the US), supply chain stability, and having more control over production so that you can react to a changing market and oversee quality control better. Not to mention less bureaucratic hassle here.

Now, I am definitely not suggesting that we are going back to the 50s and 60s manufacturing level, but I think heavy crap, high end, etc and maybe other things that need to react better to the market will go here, and wherever there is a big market in the world. Cheap shit will still be made by poor countries and poor workers
 

Ether_Snake

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Yes my anticipation was back in 2008 during the crisis. Basically; competition would drive us down, China up, until a semi-equilibrium is reached. It did happen to some extent as you demonstrate; it's become cheaper for various reasons to produce here, but part of that is because wages have been stagnating. The US still has huge poverty issues and for the first world to compete with China we needed to make a lot of sacrifices which aren't clear, but you can imagine that it works no differently than when companies compete.

I think China has the resources to take a green turn. They are already heavily invested in solar, even if it has been mostly for exportation purposes and to destroy foreign companies in the sector; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_by_country

Solar power in the People's Republic of China is one of the biggest industries in mainland China. In 2007 China produced 1700 MW of solar panels, nearly half of the world production of 3800 MW, although 99% was exported.

Chinese solar panel production reportedly quadrupled between 2009 and 2011 to surpass the entire global demand. As a result, the EU accused China of dumping its solar panels in Europe at below-cost prices, involving 20 billion U.S. dollars of trade between the two powers.[8]

As well, solar water heating is extensively implemented.[12]

As of 2012, China generates about 7 GW of power, with recent announcements that target an additional 10GW of power by the end of 2013 with a target of 21GW of power by the end of 2015.[13]

Large PV power plants in China include the 200MW Golmud Solar Park.

So I expect solar to boom further in China on the domestic consumption front. The Chinese government isn't stupid, they know they need sustainable growth and for that you need sustainable living conditions. With well over a billion people it won't be easy, but they know they don't need to regulate births if inflation takes root and their economy shifts further towards a consumption-driven society; people won't be able to afford having a lot of kids, and they won't need the associated bureaucracy in place to limit it.

That being said, there is also this crap:

Number of nuclear power plants in construction world-wide
npp-under-construction-180113.gif

They'll bet on nuclear big time.
 

Piecake

Member
Yes my anticipation was back in 2008 during the crisis. Basically; competition would drive us down, China up, until a semi-equilibrium is reached. It did happen to some extent as you demonstrate; it's become cheaper for various reasons to produce here, but part of that is because wages have been stagnating. The US still has huge poverty issues and for the first world to compete with China we needed to make a lot of sacrifices which aren't clear, but you can imagine that it works no differently than when companies compete.

I think China has the resources to take a green turn. They are already heavily invested in solar, even if it has been mostly for exportation purposes and to destroy foreign companies in the sector; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_by_country



So I expect solar to boom further in China on the domestic consumption front. The Chinese government isn't stupid, they know they need sustainable growth and for that you need sustainable living conditions. With well over a billion people it won't be easy, but they know they don't need to regulate births if inflation takes root and their economy shifts further towards a consumption-driven society; people won't be able to afford having a lot of kids, and they won't need the associated bureaucracy in place to limit it.

That being said, there is also this crap:

Number of nuclear power plants in construction world-wide


They'll bet on nuclear big time.

But, how is solar going to work in all of that smog? Can it? I honesetly don't know. I have lived in Beijing and Nanjing for a year a piece and let me tell you, seeing a clear blue sky was a rare occurrence.

They might have to go Nuclear and clean coal just to get to a point where they can actually use solar. I don't see any way that they are using natural gas anytime soon with their huge water issues.

And youre defintiely right about population. The sheer expense will keep it down, but I dont think thats a good thing. Having a declining population is definitely bad for your economy. I don't think they need to reduce population to solve their enviromental fuck ups. they just need cleaner energy, better regulations and better oversight. Better education too
 

Ether_Snake

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True about the solar but is it really like this everywhere? I'd imagine a lot of villages could use it.

For population count, it's a double-edged sword. It used to be true that low population count was bad, but this is going to change in the near future. That is one thing I keep saying about Japan; there is 120M Japanese on a very small surface area; that's insane. It's not a problem to have a low birth rate. Lower population count, far more automation in the future, practically no unemployment. Land/housing becomes cheaper, so people own more. It begins to fuel a more consumption-driven economy, especially with not having to pay so much for kids, which would be a change for Japan as they tend to save a lot and not spend much.

It's radical, but I don't think it will hurt Japan as much as people claim. It only peaked in the early 2000s, not long ago, and is expected to remain over 100M until 2050. I think Japan have always been ahead of everyone else for the past few decades, and what they are going through is totally adapted to the coming decades where machines continue to eliminate jobs. Optimal economies will have optimal population count. People say Japan is doomed and whatnot, yet look at their standard of living. They are just going through a transition phase before everyone else, a transition that will likely be much more painful for countries with high population count. Plus, the birthrate won't drop indefinitely, it will balance out eventually as the economy changes. The Japanese economy needs to go through a transformation before birth rates can stabilize.
 

Piecake

Member
True about the solar but is it really like this everywhere? I'd imagine a lot of villages could use it.

For population count, it's a double-edged sword. It used to be true that low population count was bad, but this is going to change in the near future. That is one thing I keep saying about Japan; there is 120M Japanese on a very small surface area; that's insane. It's not a problem to have a low birth rate. Lower population count, far more automation in the future, practically no unemployment. Land/housing becomes cheaper, so people own more. It begins to fuel a more consumption-driven economy, especially with not having to pay so much for kids, which would be a change for Japan as they tend to save a lot and not spend much.

It's radical, but I don't think it will hurt Japan as much as people claim. I think Japan have always been ahead of everyone else for the past few decades, and what they are going through is totally adapted to the coming decades where machines continue to eliminate jobs. Optimal economies will have optimal population count.

Well, its basically everywhere on the East coast, where the vast majority of people are and pretty nasty in all of the inland big cities


Chongqing, China. Which is really far away from the east coast. So yea, rural areas might be alright, but big cities? nope. And the rural areas are dirt poor. So there would have to be some significant investment, which is unlikely or some sort of individual home solar panel program to get that working

http://www.china.org.cn/video/2013-07/05/content_29330515.htm

You know its bad when a clear day is news.

Well, as long as automation replaces worker productivity then I guess it can work out, but increasing automation hasnt increased the United States labor productivity growth rate. That growth rate has actually decreased (still growing, obviously, just less so). So yea, not totally confident that its going to revolutionize the world economy and lead to a bunch of growth. As for population, well, you do need an actually sustainable growth rate at some point because you'll simply run out of people that way.
 

Gaaraz

Member
I think it's in part to me drastically shifting the focus of my portfolio recently (I sold a few shares at a decent profit, and re-invested in solar and 3D printing companies) but my entire portfolio has gone from being very much positive to just over 5% down! By contrast my Vanguard tracker has consistently done quite well.

Maybe time to realise I'm not cut out for all of this, but I'm not going to panic sell and move everything into the tracker just yet... every share I bought, I genuinely believed I was buying for the right reasons, and those reasons still hold true now... just need to ride this out I guess (and resist the urge to buy more on the way down, like I did with Tesla - though the price right now is looking quite tasty...)
 

Ether_Snake

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Yeah 3D printing has gone down a lot recently, I'm not too worried long term though.

What do you guys think happens if China stops buying treasuries? Doesn't it mean we'll have inflation if the yuan appreciate since everything China buys from abroad will be bought with a higher yuan? If the yuan rises, they can afford to buy everything at a higher price no? So one would expect commodities to go up in price? Is China only buy with a reserve of US dollars or are they not buying by converting the yuan to USD?

edit: I'm thinking of putting some money in a Japan-tracking ETF, maybe CJP, but the expense ratio is high (well, 0.7%). Might wait till Jan 1st when I will make all my TFSA holdings ETFs.
 
Anyone here using TD Ameritrade?

I'm confused about their fee structure. If I sell stock or earn money through dividends and I want to transfer the money to my bank account, do I get charged a $25 fee? That seems like a ripoff. Am I reading the following right?

https://www.tdameritrade.com/pricing/brokerage-fees.page

Also, for those of you looking to get started I went with WallStreetSurvivor.com for the portfolio simulator I asked in a previous post. Lots of good info, and the interface is pretty slick.

In other news, I just bought my first shares today. I'm officially an investor! And I already lost $1 due to Microsoft shares going down after I placed the trade.
 

Piecake

Member
Yeah 3D printing has gone down a lot recently, I'm not too worried long term though.

What do you guys think happens if China stops buying treasuries? Doesn't it mean we'll have inflation if the yuan appreciate since everything China buys from abroad will be bought with a higher yuan? If the yuan rises, they can afford to buy everything at a higher price no? So one would expect commodities to go up in price? Is China only buy with a reserve of US dollars or are they not buying by converting the yuan to USD?

edit: I'm thinking of putting some money in a Japan-tracking ETF, maybe CJP, but the expense ratio is high (well, 0.7%). Might wait till Jan 1st when I will make all my TFSA holdings ETFs.

I think its more broadening the consumer base and have the people who are buying, buy more. If prices rise in any significant way it will severely hurt their consumer economy because a lot of people in China are simply dirt poor. Its not just the rural areas, but the cities too. While there has been a ton of growth, China has massive inequality. I dont think you get to a consumer driven economy when only the top 10% can actually buy crap

So yea, it might increase prices a little bit around the world, but my guess is that China will keep those prices down domestically, somehow, because they need to
 

Ether_Snake

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I wonder how, unless an appreciation of the Yuan causes a huge fall in the USD that would just increase Chinese purchasing power.

I still have some gold, I'm thinking of selling. Not sure yet, only thing that could make it go up is probably precisely if the USD went down rapidly as a result of a floating Yuan. I doubt it would happen quickly.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...hackles-burnishes-yuan-appeal-currencies.html

About 17 percent of China’s global trade was settled in the yuan in the first nine months of this year, compared with less than 1 percent in 2009, according to Deutsche Bank AG. The PBOC has arranged currency-swap lines with more than 20 overseas financial centers, including London and Frankfurt, encouraging greater use of the yuan for trade and finance.

Appetite for yuan-denominated assets is increasing after China’s economy expanded 7.8 percent in the three months through September, reversing a two-quarter slowdown. Manufacturing and exports rose more than economists projected last month, while inflation quickened to 3.2 percent from 3.1 percent in September, official reports showed.

Yuan positions at financial institutions accumulated from foreign-exchange sales, a measure of capital inflows, climbed 1.6 percent in October to 27.9 trillion yuan ($4.6 trillion), the highest in official data going back to 2000. Of 276 investors surveyed last week by Bank of America Corp., 39 percent said China was their favorite market.

I'm thinking this might actually have a really bad impact on gold prices; if the USD doesn't collapse (even if it was to go lower), and the Yuan appreciates AND stabilizes as well, then all those Chinese buying gold will sell their gold, just like people don't buy gold if the US dollar is doing well. When you only have the USD as a stable currency it's one thing to use gold as an hedge, but if the Yuan is there as well after floating and stabilizing, as well as an Euro that might have healed by then, I see even less reasons to hold gold. I think I'll sell what I have left.

edit: sold
 

Ether_Snake

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Can't you determine how much you will need for the down payment and only move that to secure investments?

edit: Fuck I'm doing so well on my 401k investments year after year. Just this year up 16%. Gotta invest in similar funds at least with my TFSA.
 

Piecake

Member
If you are definitely buying a house in 2-3 years I would move that house money into safer investments. All of your house money.

If you can be flexible when you buy it, say if the market tanks in 2-3 years, you will have no problem waiting a few more years before buying, then you can remain in stocks (still should have some bonds in an investment with that short of a time frame)

Its just super risky to have it all in stocks with a short, definite time frame. I mean, what happens if the market tanks in 2 or 3 years and you need to buy a house? Or want it so badly you do something stupid and buy a house? It would be a very stupid financial decision

Hell, you could simply take the money out and go cash if you think bonds suck butt and will only get worse in the next 2 years (probably will)
 

Ether_Snake

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I've been planning to buy a house for a few years now, and was/is still planning to buy one next year, but every time I come closer to the date I push it back. People have been talking about the housing market going down in Canada for years now and it hasn't happened much. But at the same time, I have no reason to hurry. I could do it, I just still think prices are stupid and I don't feel like it's a bad thing for me to wait. I could go either way really. No plans for kids/family/etc yet.
 

CrankyJay

Banned
Glad I got out of OLED at 38...just took a big patent hit today in Europe.

Will let the dust settle before deciding if I want to buy back in.
 
I almost bought $1k of intel yesterday. Glad I waited. Will probably buy the shares at some point. Seems like a pretty solid dividend stock to own. At the same time I get the feeling that investing in Qualcomm is a better deal in the short-term as more and more people upgrade to mobile devices and tablets. Intel might actually shrink if they don't get into the mobile space soon.
 

Ether_Snake

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Autodesk keep on rising. See I was dumb to sell a few months back to "cash my gains and buy again later when it drops", it hasn't dropped, and now I don't want to buy in at the current price. Won't buy a day after great earnings report but I won't wait too much, I'll cost-average anyway down the line.
 

bistromathics

facing a bright new dawn
I stopped using it as a joke and finally invested in bitcoins a few weeks ago and it really gave me a taste for playing markets. I think i'm ready to start dipping my toes into real stocks now that I have some seed money.

What site would you guys recommend for 'pinning' or 'favoriting' certain stocks just to keep track of the metrics over time. I used the generic app on my iPhone for a little while which i think just pulls from yahoo. Is yahoo still the place to go on an actual computer?
 

Ether_Snake

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I use Google Finance. Just create a portfolio for stock-tracking and another for your purchases. Add one share of the stock at your "target" price.
 
I stopped using it as a joke and finally invested in bitcoins a few weeks ago and it really gave me a taste for playing markets. I think i'm ready to start dipping my toes into real stocks now that I have some seed money.

What site would you guys recommend for 'pinning' or 'favoriting' certain stocks just to keep track of the metrics over time. I used the generic app on my iPhone for a little while which i think just pulls from yahoo. Is yahoo still the place to go on an actual computer?

I'm using www.wallstreetsurvivor.com
 
How does everyone feel about Gamestop as a holiday breakout stock?
Currently sitting at 50 bucks even, targets are around 62 with most firms calling it a buy who are speculating on it. With the gangbusters sales that ps4 and xbone are doing, is it fair to say we might see a nice bump within the next couple of months?
 
How does everyone feel about Gamestop as a holiday breakout stock?
Currently sitting at 50 bucks even, targets are around 62 with most firms calling it a buy who are speculating on it. With the gangbusters sales that ps4 and xbone are doing, is it fair to say we might see a nice bump within the next couple of months?

I wouldn't buy it. Stock has been going down in price for the past week. The dividend looks nice, but not for the current price. Also, I expect a lot of people will be buying games digitally so the stock might take a beating. Not to mention that GS probably doesn't make too much money from new stuff. Their profit comes from used games. More digital sales, less used games -> less profit -> lower share price.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Also, to all the people in the thread. How do you guys decide what stocks to buy, what is your strategy?
 

Ether_Snake

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Aren't people selling old games massively? I would expect used sales to go through the roof especially if the PS3/360 drop in price (if they haven't already). But that being said I'd never buy GS, I can't imagine any such store lasting over time.
 
Aren't people selling old games massively? I would expect used sales to go through the roof especially if the PS3/360 drop in price (if they haven't already). But that being said I'd never buy GS, I can't imagine any such store lasting over time.

Good point. The way I see it is that now the new generation has hit, all the people are going to want "new" games. All the other used "last-gen" games are going to lose a lot of their value fairly quickly.
 

Ether_Snake

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Futureshop was giving out new next-gen games (Battlefield 4, AC4, etc.) in exchange for old games I think recently. It was more profitable for them to give new games in exchange of old ones than selling the new ones.
 

Husker86

Member
My first buy of an individual stock, TSLA, has made me sad. I'm sticking with index funds for the rest of my life. Down 35% but at this point I can't make myself sell it.
 

CrankyJay

Banned
My first buy of an individual stock, TSLA, has made me sad. I'm sticking with index funds for the rest of my life. Down 35% but at this point I can't make myself sell it.

You made a rookie mistake, you chased on a stock flying high...I've done it myself. Many have.
 

Husker86

Member
When you bought it, did you expect it to go up in the short term or the long term? If long term, has anything changed (besides the stock price) related to their overall strategy that makes you think it no longer is a good purchase long term?

Long term; I purchased it within my Roth IRA so it's nothing I need to tap anytime soon. I still think I'll come out ahead at some point in time and I believe in the company, I'm just still struggling with not watching all of my portfolio daily.

You made a rookie mistake, you chased on a stock flying high...I've done it myself. Many have.

Yeah...I guess I just have to remind myself that I wasn't in it for short-term gains.
 

CrankyJay

Banned
$177. I think it was second week of October or so. Went up for a bit, dropped, recovered and then boom.

I think it will get back up there eventually...the market likes to fill gaps. If you believe in the company long term then just hold.

I personally don't think Elon Musk plays to lose, so TSLA will be fine.
 
My first buy of an individual stock, TSLA, has made me sad. I'm sticking with index funds for the rest of my life. Down 35% but at this point I can't make myself sell it.

This is my biggest fear as a person who just recently started investing. A lot of stocks seem overvalued to me and I'm afraid that I will "buy high, sell low." However, I would buy Tesla if I had the funds. I don't think long-term you can lose. Electric cars are the future.
 

Ether_Snake

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I'm down 28% on TSLA, no big deal, just sucks I can't add more at the current price (I could, but it would give it too much place in my portfolio). So for now I can only wait.

edit: added to NKE today. Been a while since I bought any, was already up 58%, and I see no reason to sell at the moment. P/E would have to go a bit higher for me to rethink things.

BTW is there any way to view the progression of a company's P/E on a chart somewhere?
 
Anyone still following ARNA? I believe it could be on the verge of a serious breakout:

-They've had a nice run-up since the announcement of their expansion deal with Eisai (low $4's to mid $6's in just 3 weeks).
-Eisai doubling their rep workforce to educate physicians about Belviq
-Eisai footing the bill for additional indications for Belviq (namely, Diabetes and Smoking Cessation)
-Eisai recently started DTC advertising in magazines, TV spots should follow soon.


And the best part... Short Interest for 11/15/2013 was just released and is near an all-time high at 64M (of just 260M outstanding shares).

The prescription numbers have been steadily rising since the drug released, but haven't been the instant blockbuster WS was hoping for (hence the run down from $13'S to $4's from FDA approval til now), BUT the company is in really good financial shape (especially for a small pharm co.) and has basically structured their partnership so they have nowhere to go but up (vast majority of their expenses are covered by Eisai). They also have a very good pipeline in other underserved markets, and a whole slew of extremely valuable patents.
 

Ether_Snake

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Ycharts is the best place for that, not only can you chart P/E but you can chart virtually every metric you can think of and even compare them on the same chart.

Awesome, didn't know about that. Thanks.

edit: Ah crap you have to register after a few views.
 

Piecake

Member
This is my biggest fear as a person who just recently started investing. A lot of stocks seem overvalued to me and I'm afraid that I will "buy high, sell low." However, I would buy Tesla if I had the funds. I don't think long-term you can lose. Electric cars are the future.

If you are afraid of that, follow his advice and go index funds. You will have a lot less worries and heartache. If you think the US is overvalued you can always invest more internationally.
 
How does everyone feel about Gamestop as a holiday breakout stock?
Currently sitting at 50 bucks even, targets are around 62 with most firms calling it a buy who are speculating on it. With the gangbusters sales that ps4 and xbone are doing, is it fair to say we might see a nice bump within the next couple of months?
I like it. I bought it when it was above 50 and I'm confident it's going to reach the 60-70 range sometime around the first quarter of 2014. I think they're going to have strong holiday sales this year.
 

Ether_Snake

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Looks like after the Tesla fires, the next brouhaha will be over Tesla freezing; battery performance in the cold. I did some Googling and found a lot of concerns over battery performance dropping significantly under subzero temperatures. As the adoption rate increases in cold states we'll probably start hearing about this, especially since Tesla itself seems to be making a lot more tweets and videos about "see how Model S was designed for excellent performance in winter environments.".

In normal circumstances, multiple companies would face the same issues and share the bad publicity, but now it's going to be Tesla again and again, with Kotaku-level attention-seeking articles. Tesla is basically going to always be hit by anyone who wants to undermine electric cars.

Feels like holding Tesla stock is going to be one long endurance test:p
 
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