ipukespiders
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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
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CrankyJay™
Member
.46%, I’ll take it. Gimme the over the next week or two and I’d be happy.
ManofOne
Plus Member
Here Are My Some of My Notes From The Federal Reserve Minutes On Inflation
1) "Manufacturing activity continued to gen-erally outperform activity in the services sector, and manufactured exports from China and some other Asian economies remained strong, especially to the United States. Inflation rebounded in many foreign economies, reflecting rising energy prices and other temporary fac-tors. However, underlying inflationary pressures re-mained subdued."
2) "The nominal Treasury yield curve steepened markedly, largely because of increases in longer-term real yields, although measures of inflation compensation also increased further. "
3) "Incoming data on inflation were a little above what the staff had expected. The 12-month changes in total and core PCE prices were expected to transitorily move above 2 percent in coming months, as the low inflation readings from the spring of last year dropped out of the calculation window. In addition, inflation was forecast to be temporarily boosted this year by the expected emergence of some production bottlenecks and supply constraints. "
4) "The staff viewed the risks of upside inflationary pressures as hav-ing increased since the previous forecast and now saw the risks to the inflation projection as balanced. "
5) "Participants observed that headline PCE inflation con-tinued to run below 2 percent. In the near term, the 12-month change in PCE prices was expected to move above 2 percent as the low inflation readings from "the spring of last year drop out of the calculation. Most par-ticipants also pointed to supply constraints that could contribute to price increases for some goods in coming months as the economy continued to reopen. After thetransitory effects of these factors fade, however, partici-pants generally anticipated that annual inflation readings would edge down next year. "
6) "Market-based measures of inflation compensation at the 5- and 10-year horizons had continued to move up over the intermeet-ing period, while survey-based measures of inflation ex-pectations were little changed on balance. A number of participants indicated that the increases in market-based measures of inflation compensation from the very low levels of last spring were consistent with the view that inflation was likely to move along a path over time con-sistent with the Committee’s goals."
7) "Com-mittee’s goals to achieve maximum employment and in-flation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run and with inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, they would aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expecta-tions remain well anchored at 2 percent. Members ex-pected to maintain an accommodative stance of mone-tary policy until those outcomes were achieved."
8) "isorderly condi-tions in Treasury markets or a persistent rise in yields that could jeopardize progress toward the Committee’s goals were seen as cause for concern. While overall fi-nancial conditions were still seen as accommodative, a number of participants remarked that financing condi-tions remained challenging for many small businesses"
1) "Manufacturing activity continued to gen-erally outperform activity in the services sector, and manufactured exports from China and some other Asian economies remained strong, especially to the United States. Inflation rebounded in many foreign economies, reflecting rising energy prices and other temporary fac-tors. However, underlying inflationary pressures re-mained subdued."
2) "The nominal Treasury yield curve steepened markedly, largely because of increases in longer-term real yields, although measures of inflation compensation also increased further. "
3) "Incoming data on inflation were a little above what the staff had expected. The 12-month changes in total and core PCE prices were expected to transitorily move above 2 percent in coming months, as the low inflation readings from the spring of last year dropped out of the calculation window. In addition, inflation was forecast to be temporarily boosted this year by the expected emergence of some production bottlenecks and supply constraints. "
4) "The staff viewed the risks of upside inflationary pressures as hav-ing increased since the previous forecast and now saw the risks to the inflation projection as balanced. "
5) "Participants observed that headline PCE inflation con-tinued to run below 2 percent. In the near term, the 12-month change in PCE prices was expected to move above 2 percent as the low inflation readings from "the spring of last year drop out of the calculation. Most par-ticipants also pointed to supply constraints that could contribute to price increases for some goods in coming months as the economy continued to reopen. After thetransitory effects of these factors fade, however, partici-pants generally anticipated that annual inflation readings would edge down next year. "
6) "Market-based measures of inflation compensation at the 5- and 10-year horizons had continued to move up over the intermeet-ing period, while survey-based measures of inflation ex-pectations were little changed on balance. A number of participants indicated that the increases in market-based measures of inflation compensation from the very low levels of last spring were consistent with the view that inflation was likely to move along a path over time con-sistent with the Committee’s goals."
7) "Com-mittee’s goals to achieve maximum employment and in-flation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run and with inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, they would aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expecta-tions remain well anchored at 2 percent. Members ex-pected to maintain an accommodative stance of mone-tary policy until those outcomes were achieved."
8) "isorderly condi-tions in Treasury markets or a persistent rise in yields that could jeopardize progress toward the Committee’s goals were seen as cause for concern. While overall fi-nancial conditions were still seen as accommodative, a number of participants remarked that financing condi-tions remained challenging for many small businesses"
SpartanN92
Banned
infinitys_7th
Member
This is obviously a risky thing just based of historical data, but has anyone put a little into VIX or a similar volatility index?
Based off the chart, it normally stays <$20, with most of the points being around $12-$14. The way I see it, if I put in an order to buy around $13 and then, once if that order goes through, put in another order to sell at $50-$60 I could almost quadruple the investment with little possible downside. If VIX missed my sell limit, I can still sell while it is elevated and make decent. Even if it dropped rapidly, historically I would not be at much risk.
I feel strongly that a major negative economic event will happen soon, so this feels like a way to hedge relatively safely against that, along with other strategies. If nothing happens and Biden really does trigger an American renaissance I don't stand to lose anything significantly because I bought at its historical stable low, and if things go to hell I can make a once-in-a-decade return. I'm obviously not planning to dump $50k or something huge like that in there, and I'm not a financial guy, but this has my data analysis senses tingling.
Edit: I didn't realize VIX itself isn't easily tradeable. I was thinking of TVIX, which has been delisted. That really sucks.
Based off the chart, it normally stays <$20, with most of the points being around $12-$14. The way I see it, if I put in an order to buy around $13 and then, once if that order goes through, put in another order to sell at $50-$60 I could almost quadruple the investment with little possible downside. If VIX missed my sell limit, I can still sell while it is elevated and make decent. Even if it dropped rapidly, historically I would not be at much risk.
I feel strongly that a major negative economic event will happen soon, so this feels like a way to hedge relatively safely against that, along with other strategies. If nothing happens and Biden really does trigger an American renaissance I don't stand to lose anything significantly because I bought at its historical stable low, and if things go to hell I can make a once-in-a-decade return. I'm obviously not planning to dump $50k or something huge like that in there, and I'm not a financial guy, but this has my data analysis senses tingling.
Edit: I didn't realize VIX itself isn't easily tradeable. I was thinking of TVIX, which has been delisted. That really sucks.
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HawksWinStanley
Member
I noticed both Gates and Buffett have heavily trimmed or completely sold out of a lot of their positions. So yeah a little worrying.
ManofOne
Plus Member
U.S. producer price inflation posts biggest annual increase since 2011
The producer price index rose 1% in March, while headline annual inflation rose to 4.2%, the highest level since late 2011, the Labor Department said Friday.
www.marketwatch.com
joe_zazen
Member
tt
It is looking like I was wrong about inflation not being a worry till fall. What time are the numbers on the 13th?
YCC, inflation, taxes, system wide debt, ESG, bubble market...so many factors.
and they are the only giant corp investing heavily into web 3.0, which is going to fundamentally shift how we do what we do. Out of the big tech stocks, they are the one best placed to ride the disruption. Their CEO is ace. Only worry is that substantial further growth would put them in the DoJ antitrust crosshairs.
One more graph because why not:
Man I fucking love it when I am right. - Looks like wage inflation boys. Prepare yourself
So after reading this thread (see below) I want to share an impending crisis emerging as the result of Democrat policies.
New York to Give undocumented Immigrants free Cash.
New York Times $2.1 Billion for Undocumented Workers Signals New York’s Progressive Shift But after a sweeping move by lawmakers this week, New York will now offer one-time payments of up to $15,600 to undocumented immigrants who lost work during the pandemic. The effort — a $2.1 billion...www.neogaf.com
This morning the U.S job market with a surprising increase in unemployment benefits. Where Initial jobless claims up to 744k vs. 680k est. & 728k in prior week; continuing claims at 3.73M vs. 3.64M est. & 3.75M in prior week.
However, that not the worst part. Job Openings have hit a record high where the recent JOLTS report suggest "Feb job openings much stronger than expected; JOLTS up to 7.367M vs. 6.9M est. & 7.099M in prior month (rev up); pace of hiring increased to 4% vs. 3.8% prior; layoffs/discharges unchanged; quit rate at 2.3%; separations at 3.8%"
Read More Here
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zerowww.zerohedge.com
U.S. producer price inflation posts biggest annual increase since 2011
The producer price index rose 1% in March, while headline annual inflation rose to 4.2%, the highest level since late 2011, the Labor Department said Friday.
It is looking like I was wrong about inflation not being a worry till fall. What time are the numbers on the 13th?
YCC, inflation, taxes, system wide debt, ESG, bubble market...so many factors.
and they are the only giant corp investing heavily into web 3.0, which is going to fundamentally shift how we do what we do. Out of the big tech stocks, they are the one best placed to ride the disruption. Their CEO is ace. Only worry is that substantial further growth would put them in the DoJ antitrust crosshairs.
One more graph because why not:
ManofOne
Plus Member
tt
It is looking like I was wrong about inflation not being a worry till fall. What time are the numbers on the 13th?
YCC, inflation, taxes, system wide debt, ESG, bubble market...so many factors.
and they are the only giant corp investing heavily into web 3.0, which is going to fundamentally shift how we do what we do. Out of the big tech stocks, they are the one best placed to ride the disruption. Their CEO is ace. Only worry is that substantial further growth would put them in the DoJ antitrust crosshairs.
One more graph because why not:
I don’t think ur wrong. This is just inputs. The other components like rent, health care, travel etc.
Have barely moved. April 13th is inflation index numbers.
I think almost everything will increase later on the year in the summer or fall.
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
Sounds ominous.
joe_zazen
Member
article in Globe and Mail detailing Canada's de facto MMT experiment: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/bus...odern-monetary-theory-its-day-in-the-sun-has/
"They [the govt] insist that their emergency measures bear only a coincidental resemblance to MMT – and they plan to keep it that way."
"They [the govt] insist that their emergency measures bear only a coincidental resemblance to MMT – and they plan to keep it that way."
ManofOne
Plus Member
MMT is such a horrible policy ESPECIALLY FOR CANADA.
Nikana
Go Go Neo Rangers!
Microsoft buys speech recognition firm Nuance in a $16 billion deal
The deal will give Microsoft a foothold in health-care technology
www.cnbc.com
Dont know a lot about nuance. but thats a fat check.
ManofOne
Plus Member
Microsoft buys speech recognition firm Nuance in a $16 billion deal
The deal will give Microsoft a foothold in health-care technology
Dont know a lot about nuance. but thats a fat check
Nuance is good buy. Like a REALLY GOOD BUY
Nikana
Go Go Neo Rangers!
For us or Microsoft?
ManofOne
Plus Member
For both - if you own the stock
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Nikana
Go Go Neo Rangers!
ManofOne
Plus Member
Legacy media, theme parks, disney management, capital structure, cashflow.
Take your pick
Nikana
Go Go Neo Rangers!
I'll take capital structure for $500.
ManofOne
Plus Member
Just to clarify I'm not saying DIS isn't a good company but I'm just saying I would prefer a company that has better returns to shareholders.
The companies leverage free cashflow is ranked pretty low vs comparable. EBITDA Margin is the same.
Median debt to equity is around 0.44 but currently its around 0.6
CrankyJay™
Member
wtf happened? I'm down 2.5%. Did people not like the JP bit on 60 minutes last night?
SpartanN92
Banned
This is it! The Great Depression is back! Swallow your suicide pills kids!!
All kidding aside Powell needs to keep his damn mouth shut.
CrankyJay™
Member
All of last week wiped out in minutes....it's a fucking joke
SpartanN92
Banned
I’m sorry to hear it :/
I’m only down .6% atm. I’m sure Apple keeps slipping today though so that will get worse
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SpartanN92
Banned
Crude goes up... so naturally energy plummets today 
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Killer day!
(+0.02%)
(+0.02%)
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
LPP.
Lunchtime Percolator Plus
Zoomed up to +0.6%
(+0.56%)
Lunchtime Percolator Plus
Zoomed up to +0.6%
(+0.56%)
GHG
Member
Did the same today. Not hanging around. Can't be arsed for it to try and hit 135 again, would rather take the small loss and reinvest the money elsewhere. Was thousands down on that piece of shit for ages, and I don't even like apple products
ipukespiders
Member
| 0.11% |
| $554.88 |
A good day's wages today.
godhandiscen
There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
I always count the capital gains cut the government will take when I count my unrealized gains. It makes me feel like I worked harder.
I just read all the bearish Apple posts...
About 10% of my portfolio is on Apple and I have some leaps that I am holding onto. It looks like I am due for some pain according to some PoVs, but I am also extremely confident about those positions, so we’ll see.
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GHG
Member
Most of OTC is speculative stocks so they are going to have been hit even harder than growth stocks.
It's to be expected in this kind of market.
ipukespiders
Member
It's tax sheltered.
infinitys_7th
Member
Roth?
ipukespiders
Member
Canadian
TFSA x 2, RRSP x 2 (1 spousal) and a LRSP.
I actually have no unregistered accounts (yet).
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Ellery
Member
What time will it be released and where can I see it as soon as it comes out?
ManofOne
Plus Member
830
ManofOne
Plus Member
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ManofOne
Plus Member
U.S Inflation Rises 2.6% year over year, 0.6% Increase in March largest 1 month increase since 2012
Consumer Price Index Summary The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The March 1-month increase was the largest rise since a...
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