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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

HoodWinked

HoodWinked

Member
Coinbase opened at 381 and is going up

R7nwngH.png


edit: and its back down to 390.

edit: picked up a couple shares at 356 but its now down to 351.
 
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godhandiscen

godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
Why would people buy Coinbase at open? There is a holding period of the stock by employees. It will plunge in six months or so once the employees below C level can sell their stock.
 
SpartanN92

SpartanN92

Banned
Apple and Nintendo took a bit of a dump today.
I picked up 4 more shares of MSFT and 20 shares of XPEV, took a bit of profit on Oil (Sold all MTDR but keeping FANG) and sold all my Vizio.
I absolutely expect oil to be a roller coaster for a while so I’ll buy more again at the next dip

Up 1.3% so far today.
 
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haxan7

haxan7

Banned
SpartanN92 said:
Apple and Nintendo took a bit of a dump today.
I picked up 4 more shares of MSFT and 20 shares of XPEV, took a bit of profit on Oil (Sold all MTDR but keeping FANG) and sold all my Vizio.
I absolutely expect oil to be a roller coaster for a while so I’ll buy more again at the next dip

Up 1.3% so far today.
Click to expand...
I took quite a dump this morning as well.

Sorry wrong thread!
 
GHG

GHG

Member
HoodWinked said:
Coinbase opened at 381 and is going up

R7nwngH.png


edit: and its back down to 390.

edit: picked up a couple shares at 356 but its now down to 351.
Click to expand...

My advice would be to get out at the next best opportunity and then wait if you want to take a long term position.

It won't hold this valuation. Look at the price that the institutions got in, that's around where you want to be.

ManofOne said:
wtf just happened. I was up 1.6% all day today and now i'm just up 0.08%
Click to expand...

Coinbase happened, the whole market shat itself in the afternoon.
 
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joe_zazen

joe_zazen

Member
HoodWinked said:
Up a nice 1% anyone know why energy is up so much
Click to expand...

a few different reasons, opec numbers and predictions are always solid as they have the best intel and this week's report sees demand and price increasing despite more production, EIA saw a larger than expected crude draw, china's growth numbers are off the charts for this quarter, houtis firing shit at Aramco:

Crude: -5.889M
Cushing: 0.346M
Gasoline: 0.309M
Distillates: -2.083M
The refinery utilization rate was 85%,

Orange Wang (actual name):
The rate of gross domestic product (GDP) expansion for the January-March period is expected to be the fastest in decades, analysts said, though the figure will be coming off a low comparison base, following a 6.8% contraction in the first three months of 2020.
The growth rate is also expected to be this year’s peak, as China’s economic engine cools and other major economies like the United States roar back to life. Moreover, the unbalanced nature of China’s recovery – which has been dependent on exports and state-led investment – remains at risk, analysts have warned.
Song Xuetao, head of the macro research division at Tianfeng Securities, estimated that first quarter GDP growth would jump to 20.5 per cent from a year ago, following disruptions due to the pandemic early in 2020 and a cold winter.
Click to expand...

I bailed @61.50 wti sonofabitch.

some charts
CF0Af2Q.png

KSjXtlW.png
LTjoFpg.png

Opec+ is doing an amazing job at maintaining pricing. Shale is still the kink in the armor and $60 oil makes increasing production and more investment likely. US is still down 2-3 million barrels per day over peak pre-covid, so there is room for more. I still think we will see some fall back into the 50s (56-58) in the next 20-30 days, which is where I want to get back in. Saudis think that the shale boom is over, and if they are wanting $65 wti, I could be missing out.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
9.8% Growth in RS


Retail Sales accelerated in March by the most in 10 months as business reopenings, increased hiring and a fresh round of stimulus checks emboldened shoppers.

The value of overall sales increased 9.8% last month after an upwardly revised 2.7% decline in February, Commerce Department figures showed Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 5.8% gain in March receipts.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
So given the retail numbers and recent JOLT report and inflation report.

Pushing foward my inflation number for the year from 3.4% to 3.6% with unemployment hitting 4.9% at 2021.
 
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ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member

TSMC lifts capex target, warning that chip shortage could stretch into next year​


  • Foundry giant TSMC (NYSE:TSM) reported Q1 beats early this morning with revenue up 25% on the year to $12.92B, $240M ahead of estimates, due to pandemic- and chip shortage-driven demand.
  • The revenue breakdown was dominated by the advanced process technologies with 5nm representing 14% of overall sales and 7nm representing 35%.
  • Smartphones accounted for 45% of sales with high performance computing coming in second.
  • TSMC is seeing "stronger engagement with more customers" on 3nm and 5nm tech with the latter driven by smartphone demand. The demand is so strong TSMC says it needs to prep capacity to meet the demand. Mass 3nm production is expected to begin in 2023.
  • Net income was up 19% and topped estimates at $4.9B driven by high performance computing demand.
  • Gross margin dipped from 54% last quarter to 52.4% thanks to lower utilization rates and exchange rate changes.
  • The company warns that the chip shortage could stretch into 2022, but automotive clients should start seeing the disruption ease next quarter.
  • After spending $8.8B in the first three months of the year, TSMC raises its capex estimate for the year from $28B to $30B.
  • June quarter revenue is guided at $12.9-13.2B (above the $12.8B consensus estimate), gross margin at 49.5-51.5%, and operating margin at 38.5-40.5%.
  • For the year, TSMC says revenue could grow 20% in dollar terms, up from the prior estimate of mid-teens growth.
  • TSMC expects to hit its five-year CAGR target of 10-15% by 2025.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
RETAIL SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS.

Sector highlights (prior month):
Sporting goods +23.5%
(-6.9%) Clothing +18.3% (-5.5%)
Motor veh/parts +15.1% (-3.5%)
Eating/drinking +13.4% (-1.8%)
Dept stores +13% (-7.6%)
Bldg materials +12.1% (-2.8%)
Gas stations +10.9% (+3.8%)
E-commerce +6% (-4.4%)
Food/bev +0.7% (-0.3%)

7bHSPCf.jpg
 
Last edited:
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN SHARPLY

Initial claims down sharply to 576k vs. 700k est. & 769k in prior week; continuing claims at 3.73M vs. 3.7M est. & 3.727M in prior week … greatest increases in MN (+8.8k), WA (+4.8k) & AL (+3.7k); greatest decreases in CA (-75.6k), VA (-23.1k) & OH (-22.7k)

E5dUPpz.jpg
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
Nok0sZi.jpg


gOkw1wt.jpg



With futures up and the treasury down. Is weird people are buying treasuries with all this hot data it seems to indicate a hint of fear of a market MELTUP coming soon as well.

So they’re taking precautionary measures.
 
Last edited:
Raven117

Raven117

Member
ManofOne said:
9.8% Growth in RS


Retail Sales accelerated in March by the most in 10 months as business reopenings, increased hiring and a fresh round of stimulus checks emboldened shoppers.

The value of overall sales increased 9.8% last month after an upwardly revised 2.7% decline in February, Commerce Department figures showed Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 5.8% gain in March receipts.
Click to expand...
Man, you really do good work in this thread. Thank you for posting.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member

LONG ALLY​

​

Ally Financial EPS beats by $0.93, beats on revenue​


  • Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.09 beats by $0.93; GAAP EPS of $2.11 beats by $0.92.
  • Revenue of $1.93B (+19.9% Y/Y) beats by $180M.
  • Shares +1.8% PM.


ALLY continues to show significant improvement. Listening to the earnings call here are a few things of note.

  • Q4 adjusted total net revenue of $1.93B exceeds consensus of $1.75B. and increased from $1.88B in Q4 2020 and 1.61B in Q1 2020.
  • Net financing revenue was $1.4B, up $226M Y/Y, driven by lower funding costs, higher retail auto revenue and higher gains on off-lease vehicles, partially offset by higher mortgage premium amortization and lower commercial auto portfolio balance and yield.
  • Provision for credit losses declined $916M Y/Y, resulting in a provision benefit of $13M in Q1, primarily due to COVID-19 pandemic-related reserve build in Q1 2020 and lower retail auto net charge-offs.
  • Consumer auto originations of $10.2B, up from $9.1B a year ago.
  • Insurance written premiums of $333M, up $16M Y/Y.
  • Ally Home direct-to-consumer mortgage originations of $1.8B, increased 145% Y/Y.
  • Ally Lending gross originations of $211M, up 179% Y/Y.
  • Retail deposits increased to $128.4B at quarter-end, up $22.3B Y/Y and up $4.0B from the previous quarter.
  • Core return on tangible common equity of 24.1% increased from 18.7% in Q4 an -5.4% in the year-ago quarter.
  • Q1 adjusted efficiency ratio of 44.4% vs. 49.8% in Q4 2020 and 52.3% in Q1 2020.
 
Last edited:
H

HawksWinStanley

Member
ManofOne said:

LONG ALLY​

​

Ally Financial EPS beats by $0.93, beats on revenue​


  • Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.09 beats by $0.93; GAAP EPS of $2.11 beats by $0.92.
  • Revenue of $1.93B (+19.9% Y/Y) beats by $180M.
  • Shares +1.8% PM.


ALLY continues to show significant improvement. Listening to the earnings call here are a few things of note.

  • Q4 adjusted total net revenue of $1.93B exceeds consensus of $1.75B. and increased from $1.88B in Q4 2020 and 1.61B in Q1 2020.
  • Net financing revenue was $1.4B, up $226M Y/Y, driven by lower funding costs, higher retail auto revenue and higher gains on off-lease vehicles, partially offset by higher mortgage premium amortization and lower commercial auto portfolio balance and yield.
  • Provision for credit losses declined $916M Y/Y, resulting in a provision benefit of $13M in Q1, primarily due to COVID-19 pandemic-related reserve build in Q1 2020 and lower retail auto net charge-offs.
  • Consumer auto originations of $10.2B, up from $9.1B a year ago.
  • Insurance written premiums of $333M, up $16M Y/Y.
  • Ally Home direct-to-consumer mortgage originations of $1.8B, increased 145% Y/Y.
  • Ally Lending gross originations of $211M, up 179% Y/Y.
  • Retail deposits increased to $128.4B at quarter-end, up $22.3B Y/Y and up $4.0B from the previous quarter.
  • Core return on tangible common equity of 24.1% increased from 18.7% in Q4 an -5.4% in the year-ago quarter.
  • Q1 adjusted efficiency ratio of 44.4% vs. 49.8% in Q4 2020 and 52.3% in Q1 2020.
Click to expand...
Hmm they fell off my radar back after the CardWorks fiasco. I'll have to give them another look.
 
KingdomHeartsFan

KingdomHeartsFan

Member
I've been seriously considering getting into the stock market, basically my day job isn't enough to support me and I need to increase my yearly income. I don't think I have the stomach to invest in individual companies because I'd be glued to my computer looking at updates every chance I could but I was thinking about getting into index funds.

I looked up the history of the annual return for the SP 500 and its averaging over 10% and it got me thinking, if I put 100k in that I increase my yearly income by 10k. Is this a naïve way of thinking about this? I know some years are worse than others, but it seems to be very very rare that it actually goes down so it looks like a safe investment.
I also looked up the graph showing the value of multiple index funds over time and they have been increasing at an insane rate the past couple years (excluding the covid dip), way more than they used to as far as I can tell. SP500 went from under $3000 to over $4000 in less than 2 years, that seems like an insane increase in such a short time. This has me worried that a drop is inevitable.

Are these as safe as they look like on paper and should I be worried about this recent increase? If I get in now it seems like I'm buying high. I'm trying to do as much research as I can but advice from people that actually do this daily is appreciated.
 
Starlight Lotice

Starlight Lotice

Member
Barrick Gold finally got me in Green, but seeing GAN go from $30 to $18 in 3 months hurts.

At least GSK and SKG have done 5% increases over the last few days.
 
StreetsofBeige

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Starlight Lotice said:
Barrick Gold finally got me in Green, but seeing GAN go from $30 to $18 in 3 months hurts.

At least GSK and SKG have done 5% increases over the last few days.
Click to expand...
I had GAN near IPO at $20. Went to I think $28. Crashed down to $15. I bought more so avg cost was about $17 and change I think. Sold at $19. Had enough. 6 months of dead money. Then it ran up to $20.... then $30! Bad timing.

I havent looked at the stock since probably beginning of the year. Cant believe its back to $17.50.

What happened? Bad earnings? They running out of money?
 
Last edited:
Starlight Lotice

Starlight Lotice

Member
StreetsofBeige said:
I had GAN near IPO at $20. Went to I think $28. Crashed down to $15. I bought more so avg cost was about $17 and change I think. Sold at $19. Had enough. 6 months of dead money. Then it ran up to $20.... then $30! Bad timing.

I havent looked at the stock since probably beginning of the year. Cant believe its back to $17.50.

What happened? Bad earnings? They running out of money?
Click to expand...
Tech sell off as well as missed EPS.

To be fair though, the Company is still growing and its Cash reserves have been bolstered 10x since last December I believe due to Share Dilution and a Purchase of Coolbet who are in Latin America and Europe.

I am very bullish on it still, average is $16.53 @ 65 shares and it will take Profit and a surpassed EPS for Institutions to get back into the Stock.

I am waiting to buy more really after seeing it hit $30, it just shot up too much, too early.

Sounds weird but I own the CEO's Brother's Irish Business Smurfit Kappa (SKG) which is a huge Cardboard/Paper Business that has been around since the 1940s I believe. I think if the older Brother can make it on Paper, then the Younger one can make it with their SaaS Casino Services in the US.
 
Last edited:
haxan7

haxan7

Banned
ManofOne said:

LONG ALLY​

​

Ally Financial EPS beats by $0.93, beats on revenue​


  • Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.09 beats by $0.93; GAAP EPS of $2.11 beats by $0.92.
  • Revenue of $1.93B (+19.9% Y/Y) beats by $180M.
  • Shares +1.8% PM.


ALLY continues to show significant improvement. Listening to the earnings call here are a few things of note.

  • Q4 adjusted total net revenue of $1.93B exceeds consensus of $1.75B. and increased from $1.88B in Q4 2020 and 1.61B in Q1 2020.
  • Net financing revenue was $1.4B, up $226M Y/Y, driven by lower funding costs, higher retail auto revenue and higher gains on off-lease vehicles, partially offset by higher mortgage premium amortization and lower commercial auto portfolio balance and yield.
  • Provision for credit losses declined $916M Y/Y, resulting in a provision benefit of $13M in Q1, primarily due to COVID-19 pandemic-related reserve build in Q1 2020 and lower retail auto net charge-offs.
  • Consumer auto originations of $10.2B, up from $9.1B a year ago.
  • Insurance written premiums of $333M, up $16M Y/Y.
  • Ally Home direct-to-consumer mortgage originations of $1.8B, increased 145% Y/Y.
  • Ally Lending gross originations of $211M, up 179% Y/Y.
  • Retail deposits increased to $128.4B at quarter-end, up $22.3B Y/Y and up $4.0B from the previous quarter.
  • Core return on tangible common equity of 24.1% increased from 18.7% in Q4 an -5.4% in the year-ago quarter.
  • Q1 adjusted efficiency ratio of 44.4% vs. 49.8% in Q4 2020 and 52.3% in Q1 2020.
Click to expand...
I bought into this back when you first recommended it. May put more in.
 
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