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[dem]

To invest more or not...

How serious can Trump be about bringing Nike production back to America? That just aint happening.
These tariff numbers are absolute retardation. I find it incredibly hard to believe this is going to last. Who the fuck is going to administer all this shit?



Cheering on the Nasdaq for a halt like...

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Every stock I picked the past few months down 25%. Grrrr...

Plus side is I'm roughly 80% cash. At some point I'll take the plunge and hope I got in at the bottom!

 

[dem]

Every stock I picked the past few months down 25%. Grrrr...

Plus side is I'm roughly 80% cash. At some point I'll take the plunge and hope I got in at the bottom!

I'm also in mostly cash-ish... luckily. That said.. i probably lost a lot of gains being cash. So.. meh.

Made some tech bets lately that aren't great...

My RRSP is mostly loaded with Berkshire and some conservative canadian stocks. so doing quite well.

 

[pel1300]

I see aside a huge amount of cash for this. I just put 1/3 of it in the s&p500 today.

I'll put another 1/3 of it in when or if it dips further.

And for the rest I'll dca weekly in the coming months.

Even if my timing isn't perfect, it's sure better than investing a few months ago

 

[Elog]

I would sit out a bit longer when it comes to US equities. The question a lot of macro economists ask themselves is if there will be a big rotation or not (and I do not believe anyone really has the answer to that) i.e., that the overallocation in USD denominated assets come to an end (at least to some extent). Then we are in unchartered territory.

It will take some time to know the answer to that question. The clearest sign will be if you see an increase in US bond yields at some point despite the assumed inflationary pressure and downward trend in US equities (that means that there is a net sell pressure in USD bonds). Then it is time to buckle up.

Edit: Fixed a mistyped word - discovered that as I continued the discussion the week after.

 

[Celcius]

Not liking the look of my 401K this year so far...

 

[AJUMP23]

I was looking at Calls today but they are still priced high.

 

[Badlucktroll]

 

[Rentahamster]

RIP the economy.

It's so simple. Just wait for everyone who witnessed the bad results to die, and then try it again!

 

[Haint]

I think the US should be able to compete in other markets fairly. But Tariffs are generally a bad idea. They hurt innovation and growth. Protectionism at it worst. I think what the admin is trying to do is force a level playing field. Hopefully in attempting that they don't send the world into a depression. It is a major risk. Rand Paul knows.

No, he genuinely wants most of America laboring in factories, and views tarriffs as a way fund his 0% income tax. Both of which will destroy the poors and middle class who already pay little to no federal income tax and spend 120% of their income of tarrif affected goods/services. Then American Unionized factories will guarantee everything costs 500% more. Meanwhile high income households will invest 90% of their now tax free income into EU and China, like they've already been doing since December (the EU and Chinese markets are up 12% and 20% since January).

 

[AJUMP23]

No, he genuinely wants most of America laboring in factories, and views tarriffs as a way fund his 0% income tax. Both of which will destroy the poors and middle class who spend 120% of their income of tarrif affected goods/services, with American Unionized factories guaranteed to make everything cost 500% more. Meanwhile high income households will invest 90% of their now tax free income into EU and China, like they've already been doing since December.

Looks like I am safe then.

I think your take is a bit rough. We do need a return to manufacturing. No guarantee it would be union run. There does need to be a reckoning on inflation. No income tax would be good. I do think we should continue as a country to promote free trade. Work on reducing Tariffs for US goods. I would like to get that 10k Toyota truck.

 

[EviLore]

I too am looking forward to working in the Nike shoe factory.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

No, he genuinely wants most of America laboring in factories, and views tarriffs as a way fund his 0% income tax. Both of which will destroy the poors and middle class who already pay little to no income tax and spend 120% of their income of tarrif affected goods/services. Then American Unionized factories will guarantee everything cost 500% more. Meanwhile high income households will invest 90% of their now tax free income into EU and China, like they've already been doing since December (the EU and Chinese markets are up 12% and 20% since January).

Whats wrong with more factory jobs? Not every one is a white collar worker.

If youre thinking it will raise the price of stuff because US made products have higher wages, I agree it probably will increase prices for some stuff. But thats the give and take when it comes to domestically made vs foreign made.

 

[Haint]

Whats wrong with more factory jobs? Not every one is a white collar worker.

If youre thinking it will raise the price of stuff because US made products have higher wages, I agree it probably will increase prices for some stuff. But thats the give and take when it comes to domestically made vs foreign made.

They're indisputedly a top 3 most undesirable, menial, repetitive, 1930's depression era labor in all of human history. You think anyone wants to sit at a conveyor belt for 12 hours snapping the same sprocket into the same widget, or gluing the same sole to the same shoe? It's completely braindead and skilless labor, pure monkeys bashing rocks.

 

[violence]

 

[Alebrije]

What did Madagascar do?

They like to move it , move it.

 

[Kittehkraken]

New tariff rates.

The tariff numbers aren't even real.

For example, America’s trade deficit with China in 2024 was $295.4 billion, and the United States imported $439.9 billion worth of Chinese goods. That means China’s trade surplus with the United States was 67% of the value of its exports — a value the Trump administration labeled as “tariff charged to USA.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/03/economy/reciprocal-tariff-math/index.html

 

[dem]

Blunt force blanket tariffs are just an absolute clown show.

I don't want to get into politics... but he really sets a new bar of idiocy every week.

 

[Rentahamster]

I think what the admin is trying to do is force a level playing field. Hopefully in attempting that they don't send the world into a depression.

Whats wrong with more factory jobs? Not every one is a white collar worker.

Easier said than done trying to undo 60 years of profit maximizing free market capitalism overnight. Expecting said free market to correct itself after big government puts its thumb on the scale in such a way without providing any kind of safety net is probably going to hurt poor people a lot while the rich people consolidate their power more to take advantage of the situation.

 

[Dr.Guru of Peru]

Easier said than done trying to undo 60 years of profit maximizing free market capitalism overnight. Expecting said free market to correct itself after big government puts its thumb on the scale in such a way without providing any kind of safety net is probably going to hurt poor people a lot while the rich people consolidate their power more to take advantage of the situation.

Yeah. Trump talks a lot about bringing back unionized autoplant jobs to Michigan, but the reality is that the only reason Detroit has any manufacturing left is that the transnational supply chains that cross the Canadian border are too expensive to relocate. If automakers have to onshore the whole kit and kaboodle, they're going to all take the opportunity to just relocate to North Carolina or some other state where they can get away without unions.

 

[Uhtred]

I got fkn decimated these last 3 months. NVDA and SoFi murdered my portfolio. Options killed my savings. I literally closed one of my savings accounts today with Wells Fargo because there was no money in it. I never thought I would be a bag holder within Nvidia at $111.

 

[IntentionalPun]

Billionaires and private equity firms are going to own even more of everything after the dust settles on this decimating of our economy.

When they talk about “temporary hardship” irs them watching their portfolios lose money as they sit in their mansions.

Hardship for the rest of us is permanent.

 

[Nocty]

I got fkn decimated these last 3 months. NVDA and SoFi murdered my portfolio. Options killed my savings. I literally closed one of my savings accounts today with Wells Fargo because there was no money in it. I never thought I would be a bag holder within Nvidia at $111.

oof. This is why I just stick to boring long portfolio of equities / index.. at least you never have to worry much about short or even medium term volatility liquidating your ass out.

Sorry to hear man, I am sure you will work your way back up. It's been a rough couple weeks that is for sure. I managed to get some shares of Nike today on the dip, I rarely buy individual stocks now but this one seems absurdly good risk reward long term, the tarrifs wont be around forever.

 

[JayK47]

Not joking. My stocks are up overall with no major drops. I guess my stocks, which usually only do so-so, are not tied to the dow.

 

[Haint]

Yeah. Trump talks a lot about bringing back unionized autoplant jobs to Michigan, but the reality is that the only reason Detroit has any manufacturing left is that the transnational supply chains that cross the Canadian border are too expensive to relocate. If automakers have to onshore the whole kit and kaboodle, they're going to all take the opportunity to just relocate to North Carolina or some other state where they can get away without unions.

The non-union auto plants in the southern US still pay $80k-$100K+/year, vast majority of the workers are well over $30/hour aside from the newest greenest hires. For comparison Mexico plants are like $2 - $4/hour. You really thing American Zoomers and Millenials are going to work those jobs to pay $70,000 for a Ford Focus or $150 for Walmart Sneakers?

 

[MaestroMike]

 

[Tams]

Nvidia has wiped out most of my gains, but Nintendo and BAE are doing well.

But I'll hold Nvidia until they make a profit.

 

[DrFigs]

From nytimes:

President Trump said Thursday he would unveil additional tariffs on imported semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, he said the chip tariffs are “starting very soon,” and that the pharma-related tariffs are “under review right now.”

 

[AJUMP23]

Rough day.

 

[EviLore]

 

[JayK47]

LOL. How awful. Men with jobs.

Too many stocks were over valued. I would be surprised if the market didn't bump back up soon. Probably a good time to buy.

 

[Great Auk]

Trade deficit. One of the poorest countries in the world imported around $53 million from the US but exported $786 million to the wealthy US according to a quick Google search.

As any questionably intelligent person knows, trade deficits are bad.

Trade deficits are bad generally speaking, but being the largest consumer market in the world, the USA will probably have trade deficits with everyone.

 

[Great Auk]

I too am looking forward to working in the Nike shoe factory.

I know you're kidding but I bet a poor American would take a shoe factory job making like 15 or 20 an hour in a heartbeat.

The funny thing is Nike currently pays peasant wages in a third world dump and they STILL charge like 200 bucks for a sneaker. Highway robbery.

 

[Great Auk]

I have all my money for the last 4 years in various treasuries earning between 4.3% and 5.5%.

I'm really risk averse with a family and children so knowing I can earn that with virtual zero risk, I'll take it.

 

[EviLore]

I know you're kidding but I bet a poor American would take a shoe factory job making like 15 or 20 an hour in a heartbeat.

The funny thing is Nike currently pays peasant wages in a third world dump and they STILL charge like 200 bucks for a sneaker. Highway robbery.

It’ll still be cheaper to operate with overseas sweatshop labor + tariffs than to produce domestically with $20/hour wages. Nike will pass the increased costs to the consumer.

 

[Rentahamster]

 

[Atrus]

Trade deficits are bad generally speaking, but being the largest consumer market in the world, the USA will probably have trade deficits with everyone.

Trade deficits are contextual. A country with a strong economy like the US will attract significant investments from around the world, bolstering its currency and ensuring it can borrow cheaply. It isn’t just about the consumer market but the capital market as well that makes the US a bigger, more productive power than China.

List of countries by labour productivity - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Additionally, outside of strategic industries the government may want to subsidize for national security, Americans should not want to work in low productivity jobs like shoe factories and compete with Chinese sweatshops in the international market, especially when those countries are also moving to high value add production like EVs, semiconductors and AI.

 

[AJUMP23]

I’m a fan of that libertarian.

 

[Haint]

I know you're kidding but I bet a poor American would take a shoe factory job making like 15 or 20 an hour in a heartbeat.

The funny thing is Nike currently pays peasant wages in a third world dump and they STILL charge like 200 bucks for a sneaker. Highway robbery.

Any region in America populated enough to support a factory of any scale will not come close to filling positions at $15/hr or even $20/hr. You can make $20 or more starting at Costco, Hobby Lobby, or Chickfila. Pretty much every other food, grocery, and retail joint basically starts at $15 these days. Real factory jobs are NOT like most other "minimum wage" roles where you dick around for most of the day. Major manufacturing plants are under constant supervision, you work pretty much non-stop all day cause you have to hit quota and performance goals else you're fired. Non-Union Mazda Toyota in Alabama starts at $22/hr, is around $30 after 2-3 years, lowest level titles above that well exceed $80K, low level maintenance exceed $100K. Again for comparison, Mexico car plants pay around $4/hr. Nike and most apparel sweat shops pay the equivalent of $100-$200 dollars A MONTH. It basically costs more to run an American factory for a few hours than other regions cost in a month. They're also 100x more expensive to build here cause of all the taxes, regulations, tradesmen earning $100K, and the general contractor/engineering outfits earning $10's or $100's of millions profit on a build.

 

[Fess]

Every stock I picked the past few months down 25%. Grrrr...

Plus side is I'm roughly 80% cash. At some point I'll take the plunge and hope I got in at the bottom!

Pulled out completely early in the year. It’s been a nice couple of years but I’ll just do monthly placements on funds for tiny sums for awhile now. I don’t think there is a bottom. And there is no stability, every day is another uncertain event.

 

[Gp1]

Curious how countries with either big food production / oil production got away with only 10%

Besides that... Welcome USofA friends! This has always been a reality for those who invest in the financial market in third world countries.
Everyday a new shit hits your fan, until you get used to it and stays liquid and on some stable currency with the vast majority of your portfolio.

 

[HoodWinked]

Curious how countries with either big food production / oil production got away with only 10%

The goal is to onshore high value jobs. Commodities are going to be produced regardless of tarrifs since they can be sold anywhere also food and gas are felt the most by consumers so makes sense.

 

[Nocty]

It's funny to me that some of the greatest investors of all time say never to time the market, but in fact, buffett himself coining the term is one of the best at doing just that.

Sitting on $300b+ of cash right now and sold a shit ton of apple stock right before this drop lol

He's clearly 'timing the market' here rather than DCA'ing in.

It’ll still be cheaper to operate with overseas sweatshop labor + tariffs than to produce domestically with $20/hour wages. Nike will pass the increased costs to the consumer.

Yes. It's interesting, Nike is one of those stocks I bought on this dip already. There is no way the government would let such an iconic american brand go broke, you can bet some interventions would come which means the downside risk is relatively low long term. I also think a lot of these tarifs will be redacted, as trump clearly wants to send a clear message rather than destroy.

 

[Mr Reasonable]

I know you're kidding but I bet a poor American would take a shoe factory job making like 15 or 20 an hour in a heartbeat.

The funny thing is Nike currently pays peasant wages in a third world dump and they STILL charge like 200 bucks for a sneaker. Highway robbery.

It is a joke how the sale price of the product compares to the manufacture cost, but I guess the money spent on marketing etc. Is part of it too.

I don't know the business but I could imagine a situation where Nike cut advertising, athlete partnerships and event sponsorships and sell the shoes at a profit making level that would be attractive to people. Say a pair of Jordans (deal cancelled) Nike basketball shoes for $50. There's probably at least 50% profit there, even with all costs included.

If they did that I think there's a good chance they'd go out of business because all the brand cache would be gone and they'd slide into irrelevance.

But, they could still sell the shoes at $200 and take the hit on paying $20 an hour over $1 an hour. Across however many shoes are churned out in an hour, I don't see how it'd make an insurmountable difference to the bottom line.

I guess it can't be that simple, but I'm not sure why not.

 

[Fess]

Everyday a new shit hits your fan, until you get used to it and stays liquid and on some stable currency with the vast majority of your portfolio.

Yeah no more gambling on Nvidia and the likes for awhile for me. I can’t predict what will happen. And I work in the electronics industry so I hear the rumblings and concerns regarding how to deal with the increased costs. Too much uncertainty at the moment.

In general, what’s the best choice when saving with some stability now?

 

[Mr Reasonable]

In general, what’s the best choice when saving with some stability now?

In general, stocks always go up as a whole. So a whole world index if you have time to wait for turbulence to dissipate.

 

[MikeM]

Orange man murdering 401k/RRSPs worldwide. Hope no MAGA people plan to retire in the next 1-4 years

 

[Kittehkraken]

LOL. How awful. Men with jobs.

Too many stocks were over valued. I would be surprised if the market didn't bump back up soon. Probably a good time to buy.

Yeah, about that....

US stocks cratered on Friday, on track to build on a $2.5 trillion wipeout as China stoked trade-war fears and investors digested fresh jobs data ahead of a Jerome Powell speech.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) pulled back around 2.2%, or about 1,000 points. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) also sank about 2.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 2.6%.

Stock losses accelerated before the bell after China said on Friday it will impose additional tariffs of 34% on all US products from April 10 — matching the extra 34% duties imposed by Trump on Wednesday.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq crater after China's counter tariffs turn up the trade-war heat

US stock futures slipped after President Trump's broad reciprocal tariffs sent markets into a tailspin.

finance.yahoo.com

EU still needs to join in on the fun. And Japan.

 

[SlimySnake]

I too am looking forward to working in the Nike shoe factory.

This is the thing that bugs me about this the most. Who the fuck wants to sew Abercrombie and Banana Republic tshirts in a sweatshop. We dont even like working in fast food and literally demand $15 an hour to flip burgers. Who the fuck is going to sit there for hours on end doing menial tasks.

Bring back high paying jobs these cunts are shipping off to India. No one is going to fill these jobs even if factories are somehow miraculously spun up in the next few months.

 

[Mr Reasonable]

I just saw the S&P500 is down, clicked on this thread to read the reaction, and realised I was reading posts from the last time it massively dropped (yesterday) what are you doing, The Donald?

Why did I keep putting money in the S&P500 instead of Emerging Markets.