Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

It's to cause mutual pain to get both sides to the negotiating table so that the original tariffs get removed. Also, there's domestic politics at work. A leader can't be seen as weak and having just taken a tariff broadside without having responded in any way.

If tariffs are truly bad, why wouldn't a nation's leader address their people and tell them that by doing nothing, the only people who are hurt are the Americans? I understand the optics you are referring to, but a good leader doesn't inflict damage to their own people just because said leader thinks it will make the people like him/her more and think they are strong.
 
Question, if people always say that tariffs only hurt the country that implements them and its people, then why are other countrues so quick to implement their own counter tariffs? By that logic, aren't they just causing self-inflicted wounds to themeselves as well?

Why wouldn't they just let the country that proposes the tariffs suffer if tariffs are only bad and hurt their own people?
Imagine the US gets all their banana's from just one country. Then the US puts a 50% tariff on the country's bananas. While it is true that Americans get hurt because their banana's are 50% more expensive, the country that sells the bananas to the US is also hurt. The bananas being more expensive means they sell less. People lose jobs, banana plantations close down, etc.
On the flip side, a country can retaliate by putting similar tariffs on the US. Yes it will hurt the retaliating country, but the retaliating country doesn't want tariffs to begin with, so they just want to pressure the US to stop. The easiest way to do that, is by hurting the American economy. If things are getting way more expensive, people losing their job, etc the tone on tariffs in the US will change very quickly.
There are other reasons to do tariffs, but currently I think this is the most common reason for retaliatory tariffs on the US.
 
The US already has a trade deficit with most industrialized nations, so does that mean US tariffs on at least those countrues are justified?

Well that's the current justification.

However it doesn't mean the methodologies currently being applied in order to solve the current trade deficit are the correct ones.
 
If tariffs are truly bad, why wouldn't a nation's leader address their people and tell them that by doing nothing, the only people who are hurt are the Americans? I understand the optics you are referring to, but a good leader doesn't inflict damage to their own people just because said leader thinks it will make the people like him/her more and think they are strong.
This is more or less what the EU is doing right now. They do not want to look weak (would reduce their political capital) so they prepare a stiff package of tariffs for the end of the month. But they are in no rush since Trump is hurting the US economy so good right now that there is no rush to push for retaliatory tariffs. As one EU source stated 'Let him stew'.
 
No one argues that. US tariffs is an import tax payed for by Americans. However, it will reduce imports and also hurt others. Mostly it hurts the productivity of the country implementing them (so GDP down by some amount) but that might be offset by protecting a specific group/sector (e.g., domestic farming) for that country. It is in that context that tariffs on everything against everyone is a weird policy (such as in this case).

The trade war as such then becomes a political power struggle where no one wants to look weak etc. So reciprocal tariffs is much more about political capital as well causing additional political pain for the leader that started the trade war (in this case Trump). What we are seeing is not a rational set of policies facing off - we see two opponents playing a chicken race with political capital as the barrier. Who runs out first?

I feel that people are only concerned now because the heat was just violently turned up on the slowly boiling frog.

The last several decades the Chinese have been slowly chipping away at the US's (and the West's in general) ability to be self sustaning. They joined the WTO and then flout all its rules. They devalue their currency to make their exports more attractive, they steal intellectual property, they impose strict and heavy handed trade barriers to foreign goods entering China, they heavily subsidize domestic production of indutries so that competitors fail (automobiles, solar panels, etc., (think Amazon and the Diapers.com story)) they flood the world market with counterfeit goods (and even medicines!)

I mean, where does it end? Job losses in the West have been slowly piling up and entire industries, even vital ones, have moved offshore. So the frog was slowly cooking and no one cared, because Wall Street was up so I guess that means everything is cool, right?

I think most tariffs should be negotiated away with friendly countries. I think China is a whole different story and doesn't operate in the world economy in good faith.
 
The US already has a trade deficit with most industrialized nations, so does that mean US tariffs on at least those countrues are justified?
The US has a trade deficit with the rest of the world (in total) because it net borrows money. You can only consume what you produce unless you borrow. The US borrows immense amounts on the federal, state, corporate and individual level. That is why the US has a deficit. And the US does of course have full control over how much it borrows.

That is why the current situation is so confusing. At the same time as imposing tariffs a new budget is being pushed through that would borrow record amounts, +5-6 trillion USD. Nothing makes sense.
 
If tariffs are truly bad, why wouldn't a nation's leader address their people and tell them that by doing nothing, the only people who are hurt are the Americans? I understand the optics you are referring to, but a good leader doesn't inflict damage to their own people just because said leader thinks it will make the people like him/her more and think they are strong.
Well, expecting that kind of altruism would be nice, but that's not reality. Even Canada's Prime Ministers (Trudeau and Carney both) had to appear indignant and put on a substantial performance for the cameras. As Warren Buffet said, tariffs are basically an act of economic warfare, it gets people's blood boiling. For most countries there's a substantial political cost to a leader to not channel the populist anger over this and appearing to just lay down.
 
People who hate the guy always somehow tie every action he takes as if it's to benefit himself or the rich.
A lot of his actions do that. Tax cuts that disproportionately help rich people benefits the rich. Cutting environmental regulations benefits the rich people who own companies who can exploit our natural environment to make more profit. Cutting work safety regulations and labor laws benefits the rich people who own companies that try to save a buck my cutting corners on safety. Drill baby drill benefits the rich people in charge of oil companies. Laying off large sections of the federal government puts a sudden glut of workers looking for jobs on the private market which means they will settle for less pay because there are too many new people looking for jobs all at once, which benefits the rich people in charge of those companies. That crypto meme coin he launched made him a lot of money and lost a lot of money for many more.

Meanwhile I'm reading that to pay for the tax cuts he wants to extend, he and others are floating the idea to let the tax cuts on the rich to expire while keeping the rest intact. They also want to increase the child tax credit.
I'm skeptical. I'll believe it when I see it.

Weird for a guy only interested to enrich himself and his rich buddies like I always hear.
They knew ahead of time that their actions would cause temporary economic hardship. I wouldn't be surprised if his circle of friends are making out on shorts.


BTW I'm the only one who watched your video. Do you have thoughts on what I said?
 
If tariffs are truly bad, why wouldn't a nation's leader address their people and tell them that by doing nothing, the only people who are hurt are the Americans?
They obviously sell less due to tariffs, so it isn't true that only the Americans are hurting.

Also this is a special situation - the US is isolating itself from all their allies, so a joint response is more effective.
 
He's not wrong that this is generally what happened and that the US ceded its manufacturing capabilities because of the incredible profitability of outsourcing. However, I don't think the solution to 40 years of outsourcing is to implement this incredibly punitive tariff system and destabilize global trade and make everyone hate us. I especially am not comfortable when the same people who are trying to make us take our medicine are the same kinds of people from the same ideology that caused this problem in the first place, but just wrapped in a veneer of fake populism and culture war shenanigans.

Free trade, outsourcing, and globalization indeed made us a shitload of money over the years, but most of those gains went to the rich while the middle and lower classes bore the side effects of our disappearing manufacturing base. However, our government doesn't give a shit about middle and lower class people, so they were completely okay with allowing rich people more ways to avoid taxes and run away with their profits while not providing more of a social safety net for the rest of us. Now, they tell us that everything sucks now and in order to fix that we're going to have to implement these tariffs which are basically a gigantic consumption tax that affects mostly low and middle class people while not proving any government assistance for us, actively slashing it (DODGE), and giving their rich buddies more tax cuts.

Can you see how I'm not too confident in their plan as well as their intentions? I have my reasons.

Sorry I missed this response.

It is true that the right and like minded people were responsible for offshoring entire industries for increased profit. I don't think Trump fits in with that traditional right though. The right has changed and become more populist as opposed to being dominated by country club Republicans.

Trump has been talking about tariffs since the 1980s (when he was still a Democrat.)

I would love to see the highest tax bracket tax cuts expire, I believe that would be a great test. I have read that there is some internal confict in the GOP on whether to let them expire or not, which is evidence on how the Republican party has changed. This coflict would have never been possible 16 or 20 years ago. The old guard is still staunchly opposed to letting them expire, while the new blood is now voicing approval for letting them expire.

And the left is not helping matters with their policies. If you flood a country with cheap (especially illegal) labor, all you're doing is suppressing wages for the already hurting working class, drive up already skyrocketing housing costs, and put a strain on cities to provide services, which will either increase taxes for the people who already live there or descrease services al;ready provided to make space in the budget.

The correct position I think for a stable economy and workforce is a tightly controlled border and protectionist tariffs in certain key economic sectors.
 
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London calling?

We're all in deep shit when the rest of the world gets used to using Chinese institutions over western ones.

Why would you be in deep shit? Someone yesterday was confused as to why I called China adversarial haha. Everything should be fine! Right?

And people aren't forced to use any specific service. People chose to offshore everything to China even though they follow zero rules in global trade, if your country decides to offshore services to them too I don't know what to say.
 
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Honestly i think this is good. Shoes, especially nikes are a scam. Kids are peer pressured into buying these terribly expensive shoes and for what? I honestly dont get it. I wear pumas, they are priced better than Nikes at my local fashion outlet. They are just as comfortable. They look great. Cole Haans and Sketchers also have great shoes. Cole Haans especially are comfortable as fuck. But my kids literally get bullied when they wear anything but Nikes to school.

Shoes should not cost $150. Hopefully at $250-300 a pop, people will stop buying them altogether. Of course, nike isnt the only ones making shoes so those $50 pumas i buy are probably going to be a $100. So thanks for that i guess.
 
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It is true that the right and like minded people were responsible for offshoring entire industries for increased profit. I don't think Trump fits in with that traditional right though. The right has changed and become more populist as opposed to being dominated by country club Republicans.

Trump has been talking about tariffs since the 1980s (when he was still a Democrat.)
Bro he literally lives in a country club that he owns.

Thinking the right has fundamentally changed is buying into the narrative they want you to think. The only thing that's changed is the vibes of the rhetoric and the delivery method. The policies are 95% the same.

I would love to see the highest tax bracket tax cuts expire, I believe that would be a great test. I have read that there is some internal confict in the GOP on whether to let them expire or not, which is evidence on how the Republican party has changed. This coflict would have never been possible 16 or 20 years ago. The old guard is still staunchly opposed to letting them expire, while the new blood is now voicing approval for letting them expire.
I don't know what you read, but until that actually happens that just sounds like someone's copium. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.

And the left is not helping matters with their policies. If you flood a country with cheap (especially illegal) labor, all you're doing is suppressing wages for the already hurting working class, drive up already skyrocketing housing costs, and put a strain on cities to provide services, which will either increase taxes for the people who already live there or descrease services al;ready provided to make space in the budget.

The correct position I think for a stable economy and workforce is a tightly controlled border and protectionist tariffs in certain key economic sectors.
The left is not helping matters with their policies? Look up who deported more people in their first term in office, Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Granted there were a lot more people trying to come in because they were trying to escape COVID, but if the reality of the policy were congruent with your characterization of it, there would have been a lot less deportations. However, I would prefer not to discuss policy that is unrelated to what is directly causing the market to crash, as that would be off topic.
 
With prices surely to surge with any countries involved in this US vs the world tariff beef, well there was 14 years of ultra low interest/mortgage rates from 2008 global meltdown to post covid in 2022.

So despite super low rates, somehow price of goods didnt really go up much at all in those years except real estate. And even then, mortgage rates were among the lowest ever in history (mine bottom out at 1.2% at one time before rising and was probably on avg only 2% that entire stretch).

So just about anyone could had saved money for a rainy day instead of amping up buying shit maxing out their earnings spend or going on credit card debt. Now that prices will probably start going up, a lot of people had the opportunity to save for a rainy day, but probably didnt. My savings surged the most during that period. Before that with less oney and shittier job it's hard to save esp wheen mortgage rates were around 5% before 2008. And then mine jumped to 6% after rate hikes from 2022 to 2024. Now it's still 3.75%. Much harder to save when my mortgage jumped about $500-600/mth.
 
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With prices surely to surge with any countries involved in this US vs the world tariff beef, well there was 14 years of ultra low interest/mortgage rates from 2008 global meltdown to post covid in 2022.

So despite super low rates, somehow price of goods didnt really go up much at all in those years except real estate. And even then, mortgage rates were among the lowest ever in history (mine bottom out at 1.2% at one time before rising and was probably on avg only 2% that entire stretch).

So just about anyone could had saved money for a rainy day instead of amping up buying shit maxing out their earnings spend or going on credit card debt. Now that prices will probably start going up, a lot of people had the opportunity to save for a rainy day, but probably didnt. My savings surged the most during that period. Before that with less oney and shittier job it's hard to save esp wheen mortgage rates were around 5% before 2008. And then mine jumped to 6% after rate hikes from 2022 to 2024. Now it's still 3.75%. Much harder to save when my mortgage jumped about $500-600/mth.

Why didn't you refinance and lock in a rate when they dropped to record lows if you had a variable rate mortgage?
 
So is Trump for or against the rich with this tariffs plan? Your first sentence suggests he's not. People who hate the guy always somehow tie every action he takes as if it's to benefit himself or the rich.
How else should we take it? Trump is not interested in helping anyone other than himself, and this is self-evident from what he says and does, and how he says and does it. Why should I believe anything he says? Why should I give him the benefit of the doubt? What has he done to deserve that?

Meanwhile I'm reading that to pay for the tax cuts he wants to extend, he and others are floating the idea to let the tax cuts on the rich to expire while keeping the rest intact. They also want to increase the child tax credit.
Trump says a lot of things. Why should I believe him? Why should I believe any hum drum rumours about what you've read or heard?

Tariffs are making hedge fund managers and billionaires scared and pissed, and now they might let tax cuts for the rich expire.
Doesn't matter how you slice that pie, the rich almost always come out of recessions better off than the middle and working classes.
The rich lose value on their stock portfolios and that sucks for them I guess, but middle and working class people lose their retirement pots, their jobs, their homes. When homes are lost who's gonna repossess them? When people liquidate their savings and stocks to survive and pay for food and rent, who's gonna buy them for cheap? When interest rates get slashed and approach 0 again, who gets to take out interest free loans to buy repossessed homes, cheap stocks and other assets? I'll give you a hint, its not the middle class.

Weird for a guy only interested to enrich himself and his rich buddies like I always hear.
He created a crypto coin with his fucking name on it and rugpulled it. I have no reason to believe he's doing anything for the benefit of anyone other than himself and his reputation.

Why didn't you refinance and lock in a rate when they dropped to record lows if you had a variable rate mortgage?
That's great for people who can refinance and pay their new mortgage rate, but you're not going to be able to refinance your mortgage if you've lost your job because the economy has been torpedoed.
 
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Honestly i think this is good. Shoes, especially nikes are a scam. Kids are peer pressured into buying these terribly expensive shoes and for what? I honestly dont get it. I wear pumas, they are priced better than Nikes at my local fashion outlet. They are just as comfortable. They look great. Cole Haans and Sketchers also have great shoes. Cole Haans especially are comfortable as fuck. But my kids literally get bullied when they wear anything but Nikes to school.

Shoes should not cost $150. Hopefully at $250-300 a pop, people will stop buying them altogether. Of course, nike isnt the only ones making shoes so those $50 pumas i buy are probably going to be a $100. So thanks for that i guess.


You know what's funny? There are shoes made right now in the US that are priced competitively with the imported shoes some large companies (Nike) import to the US.

For example, New Balance has a few factories that still make shoes in the USA. Interesting side point, they label a shoe Made in USA if a shoe's costs were at least 70% attributed to being beind produced in the USA, not necessarily based on the material source region. Controversial, yes.

But either way, whether the whole shoe material was sourced from the US or the vast majority of the cost came because the shoes were made in the USA, the point still stands that no shoes should cost 400 bucks. That's just a bunch of bullshit.

1,600+ people make shoes in the USA for New Balance. Same thing for Saucony.
 
Absolutely will not happen. If they removed ADR's for AliBaba alone the banks exposed to it would be oblitterated. I suspect these are just scare tactics

Well they should have thought about that before buying the ADR instead of just purchasing directly on the Chinese market.


When US investors buy stock in Chinese companies on the NYSE and NASDAQ, they do not have ownership in the actual company. Instead, they purchase shares of Cayman-Islands-based shell companies. A shell corporation is a corporation without active business operations or significant assets, established to passively hold financial assets. Since the Chinese Communist Party does not allow foreign investment in some sectors such as education, e-commerce, Internet, and other technologies, it would be impossible for Chinese tech companies like Alibaba and Tencent to raise capital from non-Chinese investors. To escape the regulatory scrutiny, Chinese companies use a Variable Interest Entity.



And:

 
My bet is that rich people Will be more rich by they end of 2025 , they middle class Will be reduced 10% and they Will be new poor class the other half of 90% Will sttrugle to keep afloat.

just look on internal turism indicators by end 2025 , most of it is formed by middle class vacations. when money is scarce vacations spend is the first one that people cancels.
 
whatever happens, in the long run I don't know, but I think in the short term we are about to see one of the biggest bear market face ripper rallies ever in history since everyone and their grandma is bearish.
 
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So is Trump for or against the rich with this tariffs plan? Your first sentence suggests he's not. People who hate the guy always somehow tie every action he takes as if it's to benefit himself or the rich.

Smaller businesses have a big chance of going out of business which leaves more money for the big guys so I would rather say it's gonna suck for the average people in the end.
 
So is Trump for or against the rich with this tariffs plan? Your first sentence suggests he's not. People who hate the guy always somehow tie every action he takes as if it's to benefit himself or the rich.

Meanwhile I'm reading that to pay for the tax cuts he wants to extend, he and others are floating the idea to let the tax cuts on the rich to expire while keeping the rest intact. They also want to increase the child tax credit.

Tariffs are making hedge fund managers and billionaires scared and pissed, and now they might let tax cuts for the rich expire.

Weird for a guy only interested to enrich himself and his rich buddies like I always hear.
The tariffs are crashing the market which is pissing a lot of rich people off.

Tariffs also amount to a massive sales tax, which is seen as being far more harmful to the poor. The poor spend nearly 100% of their earnings buying shit to live and generally don't pay income tax so tariffs which increase the cost of goods can just completely fuck them.

As far as income tax goes Trump has been so all over the place, including saying he wants to completely abolish income tax and replace it with tariffs. That would just be insanely harmful to poor folks.

Either way this crazy all over the place tariffing is causing a ton of instability. If he really jacks up tariffs on pharmaceuticals that's just going to legit kill people.

There's ways of increasing manufacturing and accomplishing some of Trump's goals without all this craziness.
 
You know what's funny? There are shoes made right now in the US that are priced competitively with the imported shoes some large companies (Nike) import to the US.

For example, New Balance has a few factories that still make shoes in the USA. Interesting side point, they label a shoe Made in USA if a shoe's costs were at least 70% attributed to being beind produced in the USA, not necessarily based on the material source region. Controversial, yes.

But either way, whether the whole shoe material was sourced from the US or the vast majority of the cost came because the shoes were made in the USA, the point still stands that no shoes should cost 400 bucks. That's just a bunch of bullshit.

1,600+ people make shoes in the USA for New Balance. Same thing for Saucony.
New Balance isnt Nike though, and Nike needs to show growth year on year to their shareholders. This is not going to be pretty for anyone.
 
Honestly I think all Trump gives 2 shits about is swinging his presidential dick around and feeling powerful.

In the end aside from that being purely "politics" and not really meant to be discussed here it doesn't really matter who he is trying to do anything for. The effects of the actions being taken are what matters and this shit is legit dangerous.

We don't need to bring partisan politics into this. It's going to effect all of us, not just us Americans lol

edit; and FWIW even though I'm a woke lib I'll gladly praise Trump if this all makes the economy stronger and all that, I just want to retire some day in the next 2 decades dammit lol
 
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My bet is that rich people Will be more rich by they end of 2025 , they middle class Will be reduced 10% and they Will be new poor class the other half of 90% Will sttrugle to keep afloat.

just look on internal turism indicators by end 2025 , most of it is formed by middle class vacations. when money is scarce vacations spend is the first one that people cancels.
What sucks is that millenials like us are already well behind our parents when it comes to paying off student loans, buying houses, and retirement savings. The housing issues post covid actually got really bad because millenials were 10 years late to the party thanks to the great recession and had to fend off Gen Z buyers who were enjoying the post covid salary boom.

I dont know if there is any generation thats been more fucked by these constant recessions and economic policies, and im glad we didnt get drafted for wars, but man it's been a constant struggle while watching my boomer collegues go to their winter homes in florida or on constant vacations to hawaii and the bahamas or europe while i struggle to plan a single disney trip despite making decent money compared to the rest of millennials.

They had it so easy. And still do thanks to their portfolios increasing 5x in the last 17 years despite the recession. While we simply got our starting salaries reduced and had to inch our way up while paying ludicrous interest rates for cars, homes, and student loans.
 
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My bet is that rich people Will be more rich by they end of 2025 , they middle class Will be reduced 10% and they Will be new poor class the other half of 90% Will sttrugle to keep afloat.

just look on internal turism indicators by end 2025 , most of it is formed by middle class vacations. when money is scarce vacations spend is the first one that people cancels.

I don't get it. Open global free trade is good for the rich and at the same trime so are major tariffs worldwide?

Status quo was not an option. The middle class was already shrinking precisely because of offshoring. But that was ok because it was happening more slowly and Wall Street looked good?
 

Doubling down on this I guess.

Market doesn't seem to know what to do about all of this as it's just been flip flopping all morning from what I can tell.

Trump.

"We're going to tariff our pharmaceuticals and once we do that they are going to come rushing back into our country because we are the big market, the advantages we have over everybody is that we're the big market," the US president said at an evening speech to Republican supporters.

"So we're going to be announcing very shortly a major tariff on pharmaceuticals."

The pharma industry in the EU has remained silent on the threat of tariffs since Trump's "liberation day".

By 'big market' he of course means they're the country that lets its citizens get absolutely scuttled up the arse by big pharma the most. The generics industry in India is genuinely one of the great achievements of the past half century, providing relief for untold millions of people, especially poorer Americans.
 
I don't get it. Open global free trade is good for the rich and at the same trime so are major tariffs worldwide?

Status quo was not an option. The middle class was already shrinking precisely because of offshoring. But that was ok because it was happening more slowly and Wall Street looked good?
Rich people always win , poor people does not care. Middle class always suffers no matter how U.S. economy works.

They real problem now is that current middle class has less money than the others, I mean new generation has less money than previous one. Si this war tarriff Will affect more the Millenial middle class because has les money than ever.


us-wealth-by-generation-assets.jpg
 
If you've got money you can get 4-5% per year risk free at the moment by just sitting on the sidelines and staying out of equities.

That's why this sell-off has happened, investors don't like uncertainty and this degree of uncertainty that Trump has created has meant that people would rather derisk and collect that 4-5% while he sorts himself out.
 
If you've got money you can get 4-5% per year risk free at the moment by just sitting on the sidelines and staying out of equities.

That's why this sell-off has happened, investors don't like uncertainty and this degree of uncertainty that Trump has created has meant that people would rather derisk and collect that 4-5% while he sorts himself out.

That's what I've been doing for 4 years. But I am also incrediblly risk averse.
 
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Every time i think about the fact that i bought stocks for the first time the day before Trump was "shot" last year and everything that has been going on since then it's kind of hilarious.

Now here we are with a recession on the way. Where was i 5 years ago i'll never know lmao.
 
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I don't get it. Open global free trade is good for the rich and at the same trime so are major tariffs worldwide?

Status quo was not an option. The middle class was already shrinking precisely because of offshoring. But that was ok because it was happening more slowly and Wall Street looked good?
I don't understand what you're trying to say here.
That because the previous economic policy wasn't working that the best way forward is to just obliterate global trade, the US economy and the middle class along the way? Just because something needed to be done, doesn't mean this was the thing that should be done, and we should just sit here clapping our hands like a good little set of pious sheep before the almighty megamind of Trump. Nah. This strategy is bogus, and it should be called out as bogus.

This was never going to work. No amount of copium will change that. The US middle class will get absolutely fucked. I'm talking bareback fucked. Every fucking thing anyone consumes will become more expensive. People's jobs and livelihoods will be put to the sword. Small and medium sized business that produce ANYTHING that requires foreign raw materials or parts are fucking cooked. Its over. Meanwhile only gigantic megacorps who have access to significant economies of scale will be able to survive. And even then, many of those which are reliant on foreign parts or raw materials will suffer with inflated costs. Inflated costs, mind you, that will mean that those goods will make US exports more expensive. Load of fucking shit.

Great little clip of Kevin O leary summarizing the situation with China:


This guy is full of shit.
He's talking like a businessman who is inconvenienced by China. The average American will quite simply be made worse off. Many will lose their jobs in fact. Many will lose their businesses. Many will lose their homes.

That's what I've been doing for 4 years. But I am also incrediblly risk averse.
That's great for people with savings. Understand that there are millions upon millions who do not. People who live paycheck to paycheck with little more than a 401k they put money into. Wonder what the state of those 401ks are now - especially those who entered the labour force over the last couple of years.
 
I don't understand what you're trying to say here.
That because the previous economic policy wasn't working that the best way forward is to just obliterate global trade, the US economy and the middle class along the way? Just because something needed to be done, doesn't mean this was the thing that should be done, and we should just sit here clapping our hands like a good little set of pious sheep before the almighty megamind of Trump. Nah. This strategy is bogus, and it should be called out as bogus.

This was never going to work. No amount of copium will change that. The US middle class will get absolutely fucked. I'm talking bareback fucked. Every fucking thing anyone consumes will become more expensive. People's jobs and livelihoods will be put to the sword. Small and medium sized business that produce ANYTHING that requires foreign raw materials or parts are fucking cooked. Its over. Meanwhile only gigantic megacorps who have access to significant economies of scale will be able to survive. And even then, many of those which are reliant on foreign parts or raw materials will suffer with inflated costs. Inflated costs, mind you, that will mean that those goods will make US exports more expensive. Load of fucking shit.


This guy is full of shit.
He's talking like a businessman who is inconvenienced by China. The average American will quite simply be made worse off. Many will lose their jobs in fact. Many will lose their businesses. Many will lose their homes.


That's great for people with savings. Understand that there are millions upon millions who do not. People who live paycheck to paycheck with little more than a 401k they put money into. Wonder what the state of those 401ks are now - especially those who entered the labour force over the last couple of years.

If the whole US economy and businesses would collapse over what is for most trade a 10% to 20% tariff, imagine if we implemented a 20%+ VAT like most parts of Europe! And that would be even worse, since no goods would be exempt.

I don't think most tariffs should be in place and deals should be struck with most nations. But China is a cheat and I am sick and tired of their bullshit.

The only reason any American would be worse off is because we let things get completely out of hand to begin with. What's the end game with China? Let them keept flouting all economic global trading rules and give them a bigger and bigger piece of the entire world's economic manufactoring output? I don't think that would be too good for Americans either.

People living paycheck to paycheck somehow survived the forced lockdowns that destroyed livelihoods, massive inflation and 10+ million illegals competing for low wage jobs and housing with the working class in a short time span of 4 years.


TLDR: get most tariffs from most countries to go away by cutting deals, tariff the shit out of China. They don't participate in the world economy in good faith.
 
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Why didn't you refinance and lock in a rate when they dropped to record lows if you had a variable rate mortgage?
I was an idiot. At the time, locked in rates were about 2%-ish if I got in early. By the time I seriously looked into it with my broker, a fixed locked rate already zoomed to 2.9%. My mortgage at the time was 1.2% so I thought I had room to play with. Quickly zoomed past that rate. Damn.
 
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If you've got money you can get 4-5% per year risk free at the moment by just sitting on the sidelines and staying out of equities.

That's why this sell-off has happened, investors don't like uncertainty and this degree of uncertainty that Trump has created has meant that people would rather derisk and collect that 4-5% while he sorts himself out.
I got a pot of money itching to get in. Like 80% cash or whatever. My current equities have taken a hit of like 25% each. But ballparking some numbers, when I take the plunge I only need it to go up about 6-7% to break even. Or collectively about 5% if the clunkers rebound too.

Out of that cash, I do have some locked into a boring 3% for now. It was 4%, but the yield fluctuates with interest rates, so it reduced to 3%.
 
If the whole US economy and businesses would collapse over what is for most trade a 10% to 20% tariff, imagine if we implemented a 20%+ VAT like most parts of Europe! And that would be even worse, since no goods would be exempt.
If you did that, then the state-led sales taxes would probably go away. But yes, things would be more expensive for the average buyer. Not really relevant here though.

I don't think most tariffs should be in place and deals should be struck with most nations. But China is a cheat and I am sick and tired of their bullshit.
Then why is Trump just pissing in the face of all of its Economic allies in addition to China? How does putting a 40% tariff on all imports from the EU help against China?
Making both of them enemies to the US, means they're more likely to work together to come to a deal against a mutually hostile bag of wind in the Whitehouse.
The US doesn't deserve to keep its position at the top of the economic charts simply because its always been that way, and especially if they're willing to make an enemy of every ally and geopolitical friend along the way. Before the US was the most powerful economy, it was the British, if you recall. They fell by the wayside. Can happen to the US too.
And best believe neither the US nor the British got their economic muscle by playing fair.

The only reason any American would be worse off is because we let things get completely out of hand to begin with. What's the end game with China? Let them keept flouting all economic global trading rules and give them a bigger and bigger piece of the entire world's economic manufactoring output? I don't think that would be too good for Americans either.
I don't have a simple answer to this. But applying entirely egregious nonsensical tariffs to every speck of land not within the Continental United States, is fucking stupid. There are many ways to slice a cake beyond just setting fire to it.

People living paycheck to paycheck somehow survived the forced lockdowns that destroyed livelihoods, massive inflation and 10+ million illegals competing for low wage jobs and housing with the working class in a short time span of 4 years.
They survived with massive stimulus checks being written out by the government. So is that your plan? Tariff every other country in the world to such an extent that its no longer viable for US people/businesses to import goods, and then what? Take out trillions upon trillions of government debt to pay all of the workers that are displaced by completely eviscerated industry?
Have you given this any thought at all? Or is this just a vibes thing, and you just believe in the principle of what Trump is doing, without any rhyme or reason?

TLDR: get most tariffs from most countries to go away by cutting deals, tariff the shit out of China. They don't participate in the world economy in good faith.
Yeah, this ain't the way of dealing with that problem chief.
 
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I got a pot of money itching to get in. Like 80% cash or whatever. My current equities have taken a hit of like 25% each. But ballparking some numbers, when I take the plunge I only need it to go up about 6-7% to break even. Or collectively about 5% if the clunkers rebound too.

Out of that cash, I do have some locked into a boring 3% for now. It was 4%, but the yield fluctuates with interest rates, so it reduced to 3%.

If your broker doesn't give you interest on cash in your account (IB do but it's only if you have a cash amount over $100k that it becomes worth it) then SGOV is your best bet:

 
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I got a pot of money itching to get in. Like 80% cash or whatever. My current equities have taken a hit of like 25% each. But ballparking some numbers, when I take the plunge I only need it to go up about 6-7% to break even. Or collectively about 5% if the clunkers rebound too.

Out of that cash, I do have some locked into a boring 3% for now. It was 4%, but the yield fluctuates with interest rates, so it reduced to 3%.

I originally dumped a lot of cash into I bonds when the yields were like 10 or 11% or whatever, my wife and I used the gifting ability to extend beyond the annual purchasing caps. Then I took all that money and bought 3 month t-bills in a ladder that have been yielding between 4.3 and 5.4% over the last 3 years.

Zero risk, and the interest is enough for me to be satisfied.
 
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