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[brainchild]

So I have a degree in applied math with an emphasis in* statistics. I understand what you're saying, it's just that it's a) nitpicky (facts vs evidence?) and b) doesn't really advance the thread's conversation about politics or its sense of community.

I agree, but it's an important distinction and shouldn't be dismissed simply because the concepts are similar.

If the poster chooses to make that case that they're talking about evidence instead of facts, I'm more than willing to cede the argument.

 

[Finale Fireworker]

I'm at the democratic caucus for Maine and the Bernie turnout is great. Plenty of seats left on the Hillary side, but Bernie's side has people standing.

A lot of people here are saying Bernie will win California and New York and is still a viable candidate. What do you guys think?

I will vote for Hillary in the GE just as quickly as I'd vote for Bernie, but I would more happily vote for Bernie.

 

[boiled goose]

Since the overall number of available delegates diminished and Sanders did not make up the gap between him and Clinton, I'd say he lost last night.

I mean, I think the nail in the coffin is on the 15th, but things did not get better.
I dont think they got much worse either though.

There are still many big states left, but the issue is that there is no clear momentum swing happening (yet).

Oh sure, but I believe he is saying the only representative sample is the entire electorate.

I don't understand this at all. All sciences are messy!

Hmm. Oh..
I mean, if the sample is truly random, then the statistics are pretty well established....
95% confidence is pretty good confidence.

If people want hope that the polls are not accurate, It is more sensible to base it on biased polling or a recent change.
Arguing for "statistics are never 100% certain" is kinda silly.

 

[Kangi]

I'm at the democratic caucus for Maine and the Bernie turnout is great. Plenty of seats left on the Hillary side, but Bernie's side has people standing.

A lot of people here are saying Bernie will win California and New York and is still a viable candidate. What do you guys think?

I will vote for Hillary in the GE just as quickly as I'd vote for Bernie, but I would more happily vote for Bernie.

California's possible, but if the nomination isn't effectively wrapped up by then, whatever delegates Hillary gets out of it will wrap it up. New York is likely to go for their former senator.

The idea is that they're two delegate-rich states so if he wins them by a lot, he can make up his deficit. But even now that "plan" includes winning California by 70%+, winning states on the 15th, and other crazy feats.

It's very unlikely at this point and would take near-unprecedented events for him to get the nomination (indeed, some are banking on her getting indicted for whatever). I mean, don't let that wane your support! Make your voice heard and send your message for/with your chosen candidate. Just be prepared to vote Hillary in November.

 

[Sean C]

A lot of people here are saying Bernie will win California and New York and is still a viable candidate. What do you guys think?

Not a chance he wins either of those. Too many black and Latino voters in the primary electorate. He won't get wiped out like in the south since there are lots of white liberals, but he will lose.

 

[Macho Madness]

I'm at the democratic caucus for Maine and the Bernie turnout is great. Plenty of seats left on the Hillary side, but Bernie's side has people standing.

A lot of people here are saying Bernie will win California and New York and is still a viable candidate. What do you guys think?

I will vote for Hillary in the GE just as quickly as I'd vote for Bernie, but I would more happily vote for Bernie.

Both would be hard fought battles. I doubt Hillary is losing her adopted home state and California isn't the kind of state I could see Bernie running away with.

 

[lastflowers]

I'm at the democratic caucus for Maine and the Bernie turnout is great. Plenty of seats left on the Hillary side, but Bernie's side has people standing.

A lot of people here are saying Bernie will win California and New York and is still a viable candidate. What do you guys think?

I will vote for Hillary in the GE just as quickly as I'd vote for Bernie, but I would more happily vote for Bernie.

he'd have to pull off a magnificent comeback, but it's pretty much over. Voting for him in the primaries helps the message though at the very least, so it's worth it to not resign yourself to the eventual candidate.

 

[boiled goose]

Both would be hard fought battles. I doubt Hillary is losing her adopted home state and California isn't the kind of state I could see Bernie running away with.

Given how Mass went, I would expect NY to be similar, which is bad for Bernie.
Caifornia is a bit more of an unknown I think.

At this point, Bernie would need to win both to make up his deficits in the South. A tie is not enough.

 

[numble]

Puerto Rico polls closed now?

 

[gutter_trash]

California being in too late in the schdeudale are more likely to jump in the bandwagon of the presumptive nominee (Hillary)

 

[brainchild]

Given how Mass went, I would expect NY to be similar, which is bad for Bernie.
Caifornia is a bit more of an unknown I think.

At this point, Bernie would need to win both to make up his deficits in the South. A tie is not enough.

I agree.

 

[noshten]

I'm at the democratic caucus for Maine and the Bernie turnout is great. Plenty of seats left on the Hillary side, but Bernie's side has people standing.

A lot of people here are saying Bernie will win California and New York and is still a viable candidate. What do you guys think?

I will vote for Hillary in the GE just as quickly as I'd vote for Bernie, but I would more happily vote for Bernie.

I think he needs to win either Michigan, Illinois or both and have a much better showing in Florida. He can't really afford a big loss in Florida. These are the sort of performances he needs heading into Cali and New York - that's his only path to overturning things. Right now Hillary is favorite in both contests, so pretty much the whole nomination is among the most unlikely things in happening. But nothing is impossible

 

[Kusagari]

Even if Bernie did win NY and CA it would likely be close in both states and he would gain nowhere near enough to make a real push.

 

[brainchild]

California's possible, but if the nomination isn't effectively wrapped up by then, whatever delegates Hillary gets out of it will wrap it up. New York is likely to go for their former senator.

The idea is that they're two delegate-rich states so if he wins them by a lot, he can make up his deficit. But even now that "plan" includes winning California by 70%+, winning states on the 15th, and other crazy feats.

It's very unlikely at this point and would take near-unprecedented events for him to get the nomination (indeed, some are banking on her getting indicted for whatever). I mean, don't let that wane your support! Make your voice heard and send your message for/with your chosen candidate. Just be prepared to vote Hillary in November.

Let's say Hillary does get indicted, but not until after she gets the nomination. What happens then? Will the DNC still pick Bernie, or will they go with another establishment candidate?

 

[Macho Madness]

Yeah if the polling is close to what actual margins will be going forward, Bernie would need to win California by a 30 point margin to make up the deficit he'd be in. That's nigh-impossible.

 

[Macho Madness]

Let's say Hillary does get indicted, but not until after she gets the nomination. What happens then? Will the DNC still pick Bernie, or will they go with another establishment candidate?

I think it would go back to the convention and the party heads would decide the best course of action for the party. I'm not certain Bernie would take it but he'd certainly be on the list.

 

[brainchild]

Arguing for "statistics are never 100% certain" is kinda silly.

It most certainly is not silly when the opposing argument is that they are 100% certain, which is effectively what you're saying when you say that the data factually represents the entirety of the electorate.

I think it would go back to the convention and the party heads would decide the best course of action for the party. I'm not certain Bernie would take it but he'd certainly be on the list.

I was thinking the same thing. And I agree, I'm not sure he'd take it either. At the same time, you don't want someone to represent the party that hasn't had a lot of exposure either.

 

[BanGy.nz]

Let's say Hillary does get indicted, but not until after she gets the nomination. What happens then? Will the DNC still pick Bernie, or will they go with another establishment candidate?

Biden would probably be drafted.

 

[brainchild]

Biden would probably be drafted.

That makes sense.

 

[numble]

Rubio won Puerto Rico:

Sources say Rubio wins, waiting on numbers to see by how much. There is a 50% threshold for sweeping all of the Commonwealth's delegates.

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/706557589065043968

 

[NeoXChaos]

California's possible, but if the nomination isn't effectively wrapped up by then, whatever delegates Hillary gets out of it will wrap it up. New York is likely to go for their former senator.

The idea is that they're two delegate-rich states so if he wins them by a lot, he can make up his deficit. But even now that "plan" includes winning California by 70%+, winning states on the 15th, and other crazy feats.

It's very unlikely at this point and would take near-unprecedented events for him to get the nomination (indeed, some are banking on her getting indicted for whatever). I mean, don't let that wane your support! Make your voice heard and send your message for/with your chosen candidate. Just be prepared to vote Hillary in November.

His campaign would be fools for contesting NY. CA I can see but if those Latino and AA's number hold through the rest of the primary CA is going to be a romp.

 

[CDX]

Let's say Hillary does get indicted, but not until after she gets the nomination. What happens then? Will the DNC still pick Bernie, or will they go with another establishment candidate?

Biden would probably be drafted.

Yeah, I imagine Biden would be a strong contender in that sort of fantasy scenario.

 

[Michael F. Assbender]

Rubio won Puerto Rico:

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/706557589065043968

I can't wait for him to pretend this is a big deal while ignoring the drubbing he took last night.

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

Do New Yorkers hate Hillary or something? Why would she lose that?

 

[B-Dubs]

Do New Yorkers hate Hillary or something? Why would she lose that?

She's not going to lose New York.

 

[boiled goose]

Even if Bernie did win NY and CA it would likely be close in both states and he would gain nowhere near enough to make a real push.

He would need to gain ground in NY, Illinois, Michigan, Florida, California, Ohio.

He doesn't have to win all of them. But he has to exceed expectations here while doing very well in Oregon and Washington.

His crushing losses in the south still surprise me. I wouldn't expect him to win, but spreads of 50 points are unreal. Definitely point to an issue with the campaign.

 

[Damaniel]

That's not even linked to Flint. I can't see how bringing that up helps Sanders in Michigan.

It doesn't. It's just more desperation from Bernie and his supporters - they can't win on policy, so they pray to win on some kind of technicality. That's also the same site that published the 'everyone will make more under Bernie (as long as the evil corporations suddenly find a conscience)' story from yesterday.

 

[Good Job Bob]

I want to see how Trump did in Puerto Rico.

 

[excelsiorlef]

It doesn't. It's just more desperation from Bernie and his supporters - they can't win on policy, so they pray to win on some kind of technicality. That's also the same site that published the 'everyone will make more under Bernie (as long as the evil corporations suddenly find a conscience)' story from yesterday.

Yeah that site sucks.

 

[boiled goose]

It doesn't. It's just more desperation from Bernie and his supporters - they can't win on policy, so they pray to win on some kind of technicality. That's also the same site that published the 'everyone will make more under Bernie (as long as the evil corporations suddenly find a conscience)' story from yesterday.

Strange response here. I have never seen Hillary supoorters defend her actual policies as being actually better.

 

[Crayons]

Not a chance he wins either of those. Too many black and Latino voters in the primary electorate. He won't get wiped out like in the south since there are lots of white liberals, but he will lose.

I live in New York and I know many black and latino voters voting for Bernie, but I'm young and so are they so it may not be exactly representative. I think Bernie has a far better shot here than in the southern states

 

[NeoXChaos]

She's not going to lose New York.

and its also closed.

 

[boiled goose]

I live in New York and I know many black and latino voters voting for Bernie, but I'm young and so are they so it may not be exactly representative. I think Bernie has a far better shot here than in the southern states

I think it will look close to Massachusetts. But it being closed is worse for Bernie.

 

[excelsiorlef]

He would need to gain ground in NY, Illinois, Michigan, Florida, California, Ohio.

He doesn't have to win all of them. But he has to exceed expectations here while doing very well in Oregon and Washington.

His crushing losses in the south still surprise me. I wouldn't expect him to win, but spreads of 50 points are unreal. Definitely point to an issue with the campaign.

He didn't even bother to really campaign there.

He has a literal northern strategy.

I'm guessing his team convinced him that he didn't need the south or that they'd come on board just based on him being Bernie Sanders.

 

[Russ T]

Strange response here. I have never seen Hillary supoorters defend her actual policies as being actually better.

I've seen stuff that amounts to "Bernie can't get anything done", but often failing to acknowledge that Hillary will be in the same boat, unless we change the balance in Congress.

That's sort of like saying her policies are better??

 

[boiled goose]

He didn't even bother to really campaign there.

He has a literal northern strategy.

I'm guessing his team convinced him that he didn't need the south or that they'd come on board just based on him being Bernie Sanders.

Im not sure on the details (time and funding spent) but it might be possible that his message alone was not as effective as expected.

Clinton's name recognition to big of an advantage. If awareness was the issue, the media might have played a role here.

I've seen stuff that amounts to "Bernie can't get anything done", but often failing to acknowledge that Hillary will be in the same boat, unless we change the balance in Congress.

That's sort of like saying her policies are better??

Im guessing this is sarcasm at the end? That has definitely been 95 percent of the discussion and yeah that's not an actual policy discussion.

 

[gutter_trash]

Do New Yorkers hate Hillary or something? Why would she lose that?

just a couple of Hipsters in Williamsburg, Brooklyn

 

[Russ T]

I've said it before, but Bernie's biggest campaign failure was not effectively communicating just how his proposals and policies would help those in poverty - including minorities. Hillary, meanwhile, was explicitly meeting with many local black community leaders, leaving a lasting impression.

So while Bernie's proposals are better, nobody knows who the hell he is. The fault is his campaign's, and no one else's.

Im guessing this is sarcasm at the end? That has definitely been 95 percent of the discussion and yeah that's not an actual policy discussion.

Yeah, haha, it was sarcasm.

 

[boiled goose]

just a couple of Hipsters in Williamsburg, Brooklyn

Ny is more than nyc. Suspect ny will look similar to mass.

 

[Agent_Carnage]

Oh wow Little Marco must be so proud of himself he won Puerto Rico and Minnesota.

 

[Macho Madness]

Ny is more than nyc. Suspect ny will look similar to mass.

So she runs up the score in NYC and he wins rurals?

 

[boiled goose]

So she runs up the score in NYC and he wins rurals?

That's my prediction...

 

[gutter_trash]

That's my prediction...

the Buffalo area is weird, like favorable for Trump weird. I have no idea how if that benefits Hill or Bernie on th Dem side

 

[Michael F. Assbender]

the Buffalo area is weird, like favorable for Trump weird. I have no idea how if that benefits Hill or Bernie on th Dem side

Depends why they favor Trump. If it's his "outsider" status, Sanders would be more likely than Clinton to benefit.

 

[Bruce Springsteen]

Are we actually discussing if Trump has a chance to win NY?

 

[boiled goose]

the Buffalo area is weird, like favorable for Trump weird. I have no idea how if that benefits Hill or Bernie on th Dem side

I expect NYC to go heavily Trump. Split on the dems.

 

[gutter_trash]

Depends why they favor Trump. If it's his "outsider" status, Sanders would be more likely than Clinton to benefit.

http://wivb.com/2015/05/05/study-says-western-new-york-is-one-of-the-most-racist-in-the-country/

Study says Western New York is one of the most racist places in the country

 

[Macho Madness]

Are we actually discussing if Trump has a chance to win NY?

In the primary, he'll absolutely win it. The general election is a different story entirely.

 

[boiled goose]

Are we actually discussing if Trump has a chance to win NY?

Just the primary..

 

[Bruce Springsteen]

My mistake, I thought you were talking about general