Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)

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KuwabaraTheMan said:
There's only really North Carolina and Kentucky left to vote of southern states.

Clinton is still a heavy favorite, but the races mostly shift now to other parts of the country. Outside of the south, most races have been pretty close.
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Agreed, but the problem is he can't win close contests anymore, because he isn't going to gain enough delegates that way. He needs to start winning big.
 
ugaboga232 said:
Arabs and jews are super similar other than the fact that they absolutely hate each other (best cuisine in the world is in the middle east :P)
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I will give you Persian Kebabs, but everything else feels bland compared to Pakistani and Indian dishes. Biryani 4 Life!

Also, now I am sweating because central ohio has around 50k muslim voters. I wonder if they will vote Bernie as well.
 
It's a great moral victory and a good rally point, but It's not a winner-take-all anyway. Bernie needs a much larger victory that this down the line.
 
BowieZ said:
Yeah I don't see how Bernie can win now.

If she's up by 23k in Wayne after 50%, she will surely be up by another roughly 23k (and possibly more so) after 100%.

That means Bernie needs to continue to make up at least 9k in all the other counties but they're nearly all done reporting or very low totals.

Hillary will win :/
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I'm not sure where you're getting this from. CNN just did a county by county breakdown showing that this wasn't the case at all.
 
egruntz said:
What's the current pledged delegate count between Clinton and Sanders? I can't find a single site that provides them without the superdelegates and I was just able to find this information last week. GRRRR.
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It's telling how difficult it is to find that info...

It's roughly 670-470 or something. Target is 2,026 *pledged*.
 
Maxim726X said:
Agreed, but the problem is he can't win close contests anymore, because he isn't going to gain enough delegates that way. He needs to start winning big.
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Yeah, for sure. He needs bigger wins.

If Sanders is to win, he'll need to win Ohio decisively next week, carry the majority of the mid-west, and post big margins in states like Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington, and California.
 
egruntz said:
March 15 has largely been considered the date Bernie Sander's campaign finally picks up momentum. It's when the remainder of her best states (save for maybe NY? another aware of other big states for Clinton?) vote. A lot of analysts have suggested Bernie could gain traction after March 15, but that never mattered, because by that time it'd be too late.

If this is the showing for Michigan NOW, prior to when he was still supposed to be absolutely wiped off his ass... It's a tell. So was Kansas to be quite honest (70% was humongous).

Considering Bernie really only started gaining real attention and traction this past December, results have shown that the longer he stays in the race and the more exposure he gets, the more favor he earns.

What's the current pledged delegate count between Clinton and Sanders? I can't find a single site that provides them without the superdelegates and I was just able to find this information last week. GRRRR.
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Bernie would pretty much have to run the table by significant margins to have any type of a chance. It ain't happening.
 
KuwabaraTheMan said:
There's only really North Carolina and Kentucky left to vote of southern states.

Clinton is still a heavy favorite, but the races mostly shift now to other parts of the country. Outside of the south, most races have been pretty close.
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That's the point, though. Running even in the rest of the country doesn't win the nomination for Sanders. He needs to be winning states by enough to compensate for how badly he lost the South

So what remaining states does Sanders win by 30 points?
 
BowieZ said:
Yeah I don't see how Bernie can win now.

If she's up by 23k in Wayne after 50%, she will surely be up by another roughly 23k (and possibly more so) after 100%.

That means Bernie needs to continue to make up at least 9k in all the other counties but they're nearly all done reporting or very low totals.

Hillary will win :/
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He's up 21k now. He's still got some votes to pull out of Washtenaw, Kalamazoo, Ingham, etc.
 
egruntz said:
March 15 has largely been considered the date Bernie Sander's campaign finally picks up momentum. It's when the remainder of her best states (save for maybe NY? anyone aware of other big states for Clinton?) vote. A lot of analysts have suggested Bernie could gain traction after March 15, but that never mattered, because by that time it'd be too late.

If this is the showing for Michigan NOW, prior to when he was still supposed to be absolutely wiped off his ass... It's a tell. So was Kansas to be quite honest (70% was humongous).

Considering Bernie really only started gaining real attention and traction this past December, results have shown that the longer he stays in the race and the more exposure he gets, the more favor he earns.

What's the current pledged delegate count between Clinton and Sanders? I can't find a single site that provides them without the superdelegates and I was just able to find this information last week. GRRRR.
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677 - 478
 
Wouldn't be shocked by a Bernie win here. I've only really seen Bernie bumper stickers around Wayne/Washtenaw. Also helps that Bernie hit up all the large population college towns very recently.
 
BowieZ said:
It's telling how difficult it is to find that info...

It's roughly 670-470 or something. Target is 2,026 *pledged*.
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Thanks. Yeah that's definitely a lead but not a lock.

harSon said:
Bernie would pretty much have to run the table by significant margins to have any type of a chance. It ain't happening.
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sliver-sandersbenchmarks-1.png
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Wonder what swung things if Bernie does win it.

No matter though, the delegate split will be equal and she kills it in MS, so Hillary still grows her delegate advantage.
 
eyeball_kid said:
My point is, it's a poor attitude to people that you're going to want voting for Hillary come November. Bernie supporters are cheering for Bernie for reasons that are not always about winning the nomination. Condescending comments aren't helpful or unifying.
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Right and we MUST stop the Trump
 
egruntz said:
Thanks. Yeah that's definitely a lead but not a lock.
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The thing about that graph is that Bernie is already behind the eight ball on most of the states that have already voted. He needs to compensate by doing even better than projected in the remainder of the states. Significantly better!
 
nib95 said:
So hypothetically speaking, what sort of an upswing does he need to garner comparative to current predictions, to actually have a shot at this?
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Ah, that's a lot of math for this late at night. A quick look at his numbers, and the amount of delegates remaining makes me say he probably needs to win almost all of the remaining contests by 15%+ to hit the pledged delegate count before Hillary. Something like that. It's hard because he's already behind by 200-ish pledged delegates, and all Dem states are proportional unless someone falls below a "viability" threshold (which some states I don't believe even have). It would be... just beyond incredible for either of them at this point to fall below a viability threshold (Miss was the last one that would likely be close for either candidate).

But let's say a state has 100 pledged delegates up for grabs. Even if Bernie wins 66-34, that's still only a 32 net gain for him. A huge gain, to be sure, but how many remaining states with that many delegates will give him that big of a lead? Very few, if any I would imagine. Instead the two would likely trade 5-10 point wins between different states until the end, which would mean Bernie could not win because any net gain in delegates he gets in one contest is offset by Hillary's win in another (see tonight. Yes he may win Michigan in a huge upset, but delegate wise, Hillary comes out on top).
 
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