Support NeoGAF

[aspiegamer]

This confuses me greatly. What's the difference between primaries and caucuses that they make a point of highlighting how primaries are somehow more important. I ask this as a non-American watching this from outside.

Weaker candidates can (in theory, if done well) overperform in caucuses with some careful people management and GOTV efforts. It's also not a 1:1 representation of voter intent.

In primaries you can't run from anything. It's raw vote totals. Can hide.

 

[Michael F. Assbender]

This confuses me greatly. What's the difference between primaries and caucuses that they make a point of highlighting how primaries are somehow more important. I ask this as a non-American watching this from outside.

Caucuses are relics of the past that involve waiting in a room with a group of other supporters for various candidates, breaking up into subgroups with the people you agree with, and then arguing with the others until such time as the individuals in each group is counted and the biggest group wins. People can change groups, which alters counts, or they can leave, which subtracts that person from the total count.

A primary is you go in with a candidate in mind, get into a booth, and vote. Like a general election vote, basically.

 

[excelsiorlef]

This confuses me greatly. What's the difference between primaries and caucuses that they make a point of highlighting how primaries are somehow more important. I ask this as a non-American watching this from outside.

In presidential campaigns, a caucus is a system of local gatherings where voters decide which candidate to support and select delegates for nominating conventions. A primary is a statewide voting process in which voters cast secret ballots for their preferred candidates.

http://www.factcheck.org/2008/04/caucus-vs-primary/

 

[Africanus]

This confuses me greatly. What's the difference between primaries and caucuses that they make a point of highlighting how primaries are somehow more important. I ask this as a non-American watching this from outside.

Caucuses are an archaic relic of the old days of voting in this country, where people can gather in rooms at times and vocally or physically represent how they want a vote to swing. Sometimes ties are decided by coin tosses, shooting hoops, animals etc. It's highly unusual and often leads to unexpected candidates winning by odd margins.

Primaries are your regular voting procedure (ballot, private, recorded data, much as the general election) and is the norm for the majority of states. Candidates can be accurately predicted to win/lose for primaries to a lower degree of error.

As such, Cruz winning Caucuses is less legitimate than primary wins in the eyes of the reporter.

 

[bill1148]

Why, exactly? As far as I know, Cruz's projected strongest states are behind him for the most part now.

Cruz was down around 20 in both Louisiana and Kentucky (he lost by <5), and some even had him losing Kansas. Even Maine is a surprise.

Cruz will win the plains states, and I think he has a good shot in Missouri and North Carolina on the 15th. After Kasich and Rubio drop out, Cruz will beat Trump 1 on 1 in most remaining states, though I don't think he'll have enough delegates for an outright nom.

 

[border]

Why is there all this talk about "If Rubio can win Florida, then blah blah blah...."??

Rubio is losing by 15-20 points in Florida polls. Older polls have been a little more favorable but they still all showed Trump with a lead. I'm not sure why media outlets and pundits are entertaining the idea that he might win there.

 

[numble]

Trump's showing was weak today. Eking out narrow wins and ceding way too many delegates to Cruz and Rubio. If Trump doesn't pull well ahead of the pack he won't have enough delegates to secure the nomination, leading to a convention where the GOP can sideswipe him with backing someone else (and that is, in fact, what the establishment is banking on).

Isn't he still on track? He didn't miss his goal in Maine, according to the FiveThirtyEight delegate tracker.

 

[BoboBrazil]

Why is there all this talk about "If Rubio can win Florida, then blah blah blah...."??

Rubio is losing by 15-20 points in Florida polls. Older polls have been a little more favorable but they still all showed Trump with a lead. I'm not sure why media outlets and pundits are entertaining the idea that he might win there.

establishment is pumping 25-40 million in anti-Trump ads strictly for Florida in the next couple of weeks.

 

[Steel]

Why is there all this talk about "If Rubio can win Florida, then blah blah blah...."??

Rubio is losing by 15-20 points in Florida polls. Older polls have been a little more favorable but they still all showed Trump with a lead. I'm not sure why media outlets and pundits are entertaining the idea that he might win there.

They're making a big deal because it's a big deal for Rubio, and when they make that clear more people will tune in to watch Rubio's inevitable implosion.

 

[MoxManiac]

Wouldn't Trump supporters go apeshit if Trump's nomination was stolen through a brokered convention?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

establishment is pumping 25-40 million in anti-Trump ads strictly for Florida in the next couple of weeks.

Cruz is putting millions into anti-Rubio ads.

So this should be fun.

Wouldn't Trump supporters go apeshit if Trump's nomination was stolen through a brokered convention?

Absolutely.

The anti-establishment candidate being screwed by establishment backroom deals. That's a recipe for disaster.

 

[mo60]

Why is there all this talk about "If Rubio can win Florida, then blah blah blah...."??

Rubio is losing by 15-20 points in Florida polls. Older polls have been a little more favorable but they still all showed Donald "When did we beat Japan at anything?" Trump with a lead. I'm not sure why media outlets and pundits are entertaining the idea that he might win there.

I have a funny feeling after rubio's shenanigans in the last week or so rubio's support may start to move to cruz making him a bit more competitive in states like florida, california and etc against trump in the future.We have evidence of some of his support possibly moving to Cruz already.

 

[Michael F. Assbender]

Wouldn't Trump supporters go apeshit if Trump's nomination was stolen through a brokered convention?

Yep. It's my wet dream.

Tear that Party apart.

 

[Steel]

I have a funny feeling after rubio's shenanigans in the last week or so rubio's support may start to move to cruz making him a bit more competitive in states like florida, california and etc against trump in the future.

Florida is winner take all, being competitive makes no difference.

 

[whitehawk]

Looking at this Hitler clip of Trump earlier today, hadn't seen it before...

What in the fuck.

link?

 

[Ekdrm2d1]

Cruz is putting millions into anti-Rubio ads.

So this should be fun.

Spend that wealth. Good

 

[border]

establishment is pumping 25-40 million in anti-Trump ads strictly for Florida in the next couple of weeks.

And ultimately the problem with that is that even if the ads are effective, there are at least 2-3 viable non-Trump candidates. So even if you can convince people that Trump is terrible, you still end up splitting those anti-Trump votes between multiple people.

I feel like they'd almost be better off spending half the money on anti-Trump ads and the other half on anti-Cruz ads......at least that way you are consolidating people towards the establishment candidate.

 

[mo60]

Florida is winner take all, being competitive makes no difference.

Yep, but cruz could prevent rubio from getting second place in florida if some of his support moves to cruz. A third place finish for rubio will be more embarrassing then losing florida outright to Trump.

 

[User 463088]

MSNBC confirming my math

Hillary came in with a 195 pledged delegate lead. She'll leave tonight with a 206 delegate lead. Will shrink back to 196 or 197 after tomorrow, though. Still think she'll net one delegate from the win today, though.

 

[harSon]

MSNBC confirming my math

Hillary came in with a 195 pledged delegate lead. She'll leave tonight with a 206 delegate lead. Will shrink back to 196 or 197 after tomorrow, though. Still think she'll net one delegate from the win today, though.

It'll go up considerably after Michigan and Mississippi. March 15th is going to be the dagger though.

 

[Prologue]

no bernie speech?

 

[Amir0x]

MSNBC confirming my math

Hillary came in with a 195 pledged delegate lead. She'll leave tonight with a 206 delegate lead. Will shrink back to 196 or 197 after tomorrow, though. Still think she'll net one delegate from the win today, though.

It's fun seeing it slowly tick up, especially since we're at the point we needn't worry anymore who will be the nominee.

 

[User 463088]

It'll go up considerably after Michigan and Mississippi. March 15th is going to be the dagger though.

It depends on the margins, but anywhere from 300-350 probably. Not counting supers, of course. So, ya. Looking pretty good.

I've waited 8 long years for this. Eight long, long years. I can almost taste it.

 

[User 463088]

no bernie speech?

He gave his regular stump speech around 7:00 or 8:00. He was in...Michigan, I believe. Was it Michigan? He was somewhere. They only covered it for a few minutes because it had nothing to do with the results, and was just his normal thing.

They cut off Hillary too. Only showed Trump in its entirety.

 

[Tranqueris]

John Oliver wasn't kidding about Trump being insecure about his hands.

I really wanna see the poor person on that campaign that has to spend their whole day going like.. "Donald, you gotta let this go. Please let it go."

 

[VanCityGamer]

Cruz was down around 20 in both Louisiana and Kentucky (he lost by <5), and some even had him losing Kansas. Even Maine is a surprise.

Cruz will win the plains states, and I think he has a good shot in Missouri and North Carolina on the 15th. After Kasich and Rubio drop out, Cruz will beat Trump 1 on 1 in most remaining states, though I don't think he'll have enough delegates for an outright nom.

That's really not how I see this playing out, but guess we'll find out soon...

 

[Fat4all]

I really wanna see the poor person on that campaign that has to spend their whole day going like.. "Donald, you gotta let this go. Please let it go."

Trump fired that guy ages ago.

He hired a new guy to compliment him on the size of his hands and lose to him at thumb wars.

 

[Kickz]

The way Trump ended that speech by crucifying Mittens was masterful. Trump also evolving by being a little less brash and speaking in a more conversational tone.

Also why does the establishment hate Cruz??
Not moderate enough?

 

[Fat4all]

The way Trump ended that speech by crucifying Mittens was masterful. Trump also evolving by being a little less brash and speaking in a more conversational tone.

Also why does the establishment hate Cruz??
Not moderate enough?

Cruz has gone against them too many times in the past, and Cruz constantly badmouths the establishment Repubs, calling them weak etc.

Also, I just think people hate his personality. He's a slimy asshole.
...
...
and not the good kind of slimy asshole.

 

[Prodigal Son]

It's a shame Carson dropped out right after hands became a relevant topic of discussion.

 

[MThanded]

It's a shame Carson dropped out right after hands became a relevant topic of discussion.

"All I know is my hands are gifted"

 

[brainchild]

It depends on the margins, but anywhere from 300-350 probably. Not counting supers, of course. So, ya. Looking pretty good.

I've waited 8 long years for this. Eight long, long years. I can almost taste it.

With the way you're acting, I'd be slightly concerned for your well-being if she somehow magically loses the nomination.

 

[Amir0x]

With the way you're acting, I'd be slightly concerned for your well-being if she somehow magically loses the nomination.

Good thing magic isn't real.

 

[BlastProcessing]

The way Trump ended that speech by crucifying Mittens was masterful. Trump also evolving by being a little less brash and speaking in a more conversational tone.

Also why does the establishment hate Cruz??
Not moderate enough?

Cruz has pulled shit like scheduling his own press conferences at the same time as his Majority leader. He throws a lot of elbows.

 

[Africanus]

It depends on the margins, but anywhere from 300-350 probably. Not counting supers, of course. So, ya. Looking pretty good.

I've waited 8 long years for this. Eight long, long years. I can almost taste it.

It seems you've been recalled to life.

 

[ampere]

With the way you're acting, I'd be slightly concerned for your well-being if she somehow magically loses the nomination.

There's about as much chance of that happening as the Browns winning the Superbowl

Technically possible, but only technically

 

[harSon]

wrong thread

 

[jonjonaug]

The way Trump ended that speech by crucifying Mittens was masterful. Trump also evolving by being a little less brash and speaking in a more conversational tone.

Also why does the establishment hate Cruz??
Not moderate enough?

He's almost singlehandedly done a lot of damage to the reputation of Republicans in Congress with things like that one government shutdown that ended up with the GOP getting nothing out of it. His obstructionism often goes a step too far for the tastes of all but the most right wing members. Plus he doesn't play nice with much of anyone other than a few Senators and House members and goes out of his way to be combative.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Also why does the establishment hate Cruz??
Not moderate enough?

Probably the biggest no-no: He's used the Tea Party Reps in the house in ways that have overrided the establishments' wishes, threatening government shutdowns on his terms when the leadership had already worked out a compromise with dems.

Everyone in the GOP leadership hates his guts.

 

[User 463088]

With the way you're acting, I'd be slightly concerned for your well-being if she somehow magically loses the nomination.

<3

 

[brainchild]

Good thing magic isn't real.

I don't think that's a good thing at all! Imagine the kind of progress the scientific community could make with the power of magic!

There's about as much chance of that happening as the Browns winning the Superbowl

Technically possible, but only technically

See this?

Magic, baby. Magic.

 

[Fat4all]

Good thing magic isn't real.

Friendship (and delegates) is magic.

I don't think that's a good thing at all! Imagine the kind of progress the scientific community could make with the power of magic!

Dr. Whooves gets by without magic just fine.

 

[Flying Toaster]

Let Cruz fight for scraps... Little Marco is done and if the establishment takes the nomination away from the Don then there will be riots in the streets...

This election cycle is brilliant!

 

[UraMallas]

I don't think that's a good thing at all! Imagine the kind of progress the scientific community could make with the power of magic!

Neil would tell you that magic would severely hinder any progress in science. We would probably still be in the dark ages because how the fuck is all this shit happening, ya know?

 

[Makai]

Huelen?

 

[Flying Toaster]

Huelen?

So good... Tempted but will pass.

 

[StopMakingSense]

It's a shame Carson dropped out right after hands became a relevant topic of discussion.

"I've always said, it's not the size of the hands that matter, but what you do with them. The magic I work when I am elbow deep in someone is nothing short of a miracle."

 

[Fat4all]

Huelen?

Way to screw up the avatar, here's the fixed version.

 

[ayeorkean]

Let Cruz fight for scraps... Little Marco is done and if the establishment takes the nomination away from the Don then there will be riots in the streets...

This election cycle is brilliant!

Don't see how this ends peacefully even if he gets the nomination.

 

[brainchild]

Neil would tell you that magic would severely hinder any progress in science. We would probably still be in the dark ages because how the fuck is all this shit happening, ya know?

Nah, he'd say that anything that causes us to question everything we think that we know is healthy for the scientific community. We want to know more, not less

On a serious note, science is magic in a sense, but only when you don't understand how it works