Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)

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EskimoJoe said:
Yeah, the big difference between a 51-49 and a 49-51 is the media narrative that arises, moreso than the tiny delegate difference. The big story here isn't that Bernie won Michigan. It's that he beat his polling average b a crazy amount. Even if he lost, beating the polling average by that much is good news for him. Having the "Sanders Resurgent" media narrative is just icing.
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Honestly that's how it's supposed to work. That's how it should work, but media having their own agenda instead means that narrative will most likely be buried in an attempt to squash the momentum of sanders' campaign.
 
Valhelm said:
Are there any more states in which he can conceivably replicate New Hampshire-style wins? I'd love to check out the map, but I need to head to bed. Tomorrow morning, I'm helping CNN set up their upcoming Republican debate.
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It is a big win for his narrative... Not a big win for the math.

He's going to need the math in a big way soon, and the longer it takes the more unlikley it becomes for him to take the nom.
 
The media will be ALL OVER this win for the upcoming week. How the polls were wrong, if Hillary is losing the AA vote, etc.

Very very large narrative win for Bernie. Should cause momentum to soar.
 
Nothing1016 said:
Another question. Since I am uniformed, whats the difference between super and regular delegates?
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Delegates are pledged and are allocated based on the actual primary results.

Super delegates are just special important people to the party like congress people, and governors, the president, former presidents, and even lobbyists...
They say they commit to supporting one character or another, but they dont actually choose till the convention. They can change their mind.

Superdelegates choosing the nominee against the pledged delegate results would be crazy and unheard of and a disaster.

They are meaningless and outdated. At best they are meaningless, at worst they are antidemocratic.
 
Big optic win for bernie. Also a big tide turning win for people who don't understand primary math.

Will be interesting to see how the optics do impact real numbers going forwards.
 
NimbusD said:
Honestly that's how it's supposed to work. That's how it should work, but media having their own agenda instead means that narrative will most likely be buried in an attempt to squash the momentum of sanders' campaign.
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You kidding? They absolutely want a real race, this will be played up beyond belief.
 
womfalcs3 said:
It's 41 delegates a candidate. Bernie doesn't have a path to nomination. It's sad to see the naivety of the youth for those person.
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I have a spreadsheet. The delegate math is very very hard, but not impossible.

Battersea Power Station said:
It is really sad. But just think of it as a learning experience for them: stop getting excited about candidates unless you know for sure they can win.
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Now this is some condescending bullshit. Let people get excited over candidates they agree with. So you can't get excited unless you are certain the candidate will win??? how does that even make sense.
 
Valhelm said:
Are there any more states in which he can conceivably replicate New Hampshire-style wins? I'd love to check out the map, but I need to head to bed. Tomorrow morning, I'm helping CNN set up their upcoming Republican debate.
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Based on demographics and ideology, I'd say the places where he could most likely put up those margins would be Wisconsin and the Pacific Northwest.
 
B-Dubs said:
It's not just getting that big margin, it's about doing it in delegate rich states.
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Great point. I kind of forget how large a lot of the Southern states are.

Is delegate count based on state size or Democratic party membership? Because Bernie seems to do very well with liberal voters in conservative states. If he sweeps the West (possible), this is doable.

Also: very interesting that Clinton is apparently less popular with black voters outside the South. Why would this be?
 
SolarPowered said:
We're finally in the Rocky 2 phase of the democratic primaries. After going the distance in Iowa he came back in Michigan and took the title. Let's see what happens on March 15th!
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Interviewer: Do you hate Bernie?
Hillary: No, I don't hate Bernie. I pity the fool, and I will destroy any man who tries to take what I got!
 
MartyStu said:
The future of the party sort of relies on Democrats not being ashamed of being Liberal.

The younger generation and Sanders are dragging the party to the left.

Hopefully it sticks.
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Hillary will probably win the battle of Bernie and his ideas will win the war.

Let's hope the Dems aren't afraid of being called liberals.
 
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Bernie takes the win in Michigan and Clinton utterly destroys him in Mississippi.

Delegate-wise, nearly tieing in MI does not help Bernie logically. The hope is the narrative of doing so much better than the polling numbers indicated allows Bernie to gain some momentum.
 
womfalcs3 said:
It's 41 delegates a candidate. Bernie doesn't have a path to nomination. It's sad to see the naivety of the youth for those person.
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What exactly is embarassing or sad about being psyched for a candidate that represents their values gaining momentum in a race where that candidate needs to gain a crazy amount of momentum to win? Is it sad because, oh god, he might lose? It's not like we're betting on horses.
 
I love how nate silver induces salt. 538 is right a massive amount of the time and when they get something wrong the trolls come out to feast.
 
Valhelm said:
Are there any more states in which he can conceivably replicate New Hampshire-style wins? I'd love to check out the map, but I need to head to bed. Tomorrow morning, I'm helping CNN set up their upcoming Republican debate.
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Off the top of my head: Washington, Oregon, West Virginia, Alaska, Wisconsin and Montana are all states where he could very likely pull off double-digit wins.
 
massoluk said:
What is it with some people in this thread and 538? They talked polls.
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Because some people are idiots who have no idea what 538 is actually doing with the polls.

MThanded said:
I love how nate silver induces salt. 538 is right a massive amount of the time and when they get something wrong the trolls come out to feast.
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538 didn't get anything wrong, all they do is analyze polls. The polls were wrong. The Trolls be thinkin' 538 is conducting the polls.
 
Valhelm said:
Great point. I kind of forget how large a lot of the Southern states are.

Is delegate count based on state size or Democratic party membership? Because Bernie seems to do very well with liberal voters in conservative states. If he sweeps the West (possible), this is doable.

Also: very interesting that Clinton is apparently less popular with black voters outside the South. Why would this be?
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Her numbers in the South were obscene, expecting that across the country is insane.

Well, Bernie would need huge wins in both California and New York to win the nomination. We're talking well over 10 points, like what Clinton did to him in the South.
 
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