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The Battle is Over. Hillary Now Campaigns Against Republican Congress
- Thread starter wildfire
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hydrophilic attack
Member
The Obama initiative will include legal challenges
Bonfires Down
Member
I'm not necessarily saying it's a bad thing to switch focus, but looking at Realclearpolitics there are a few polls from the last few days where they are tied or Trump is slightly ahead. So I don't see how you guys can say that it's decided?
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
She's smart. She has a very good brain.
Which polls?
Melkezadek
Member
I understand the complacency concerns, but it's starting to become a bit annoying. She's thinking two steps ahead. Real change will happen with the transformation of the Senate and Congress. Not just her becoming President.
This is what leadership looks like.
This is what leadership looks like.
I'd rather that than giving "undecideds" or "millennials" a reason to feel safe protest voting in swing states.
Lord Frieza
Member
A few polls have always shown the race as close or with Trump ahead, The LA Times being the most notable.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
He's a laughingstock, and national polls right now on average have her ~7 points ahead. Obama was nearly tied with Romney in the national polls in 2012.
No. Trump's only path to victory is some sort of major shakeup in the election to give him a chance to increase his numbers. That's why he's desperate for a fourth debate - he's basically all out of catchup mechanisms. And even that's not going to be enough. What Trump really needs is some sort of big event to shake things up, like a major terrorist attack, outbreak of war, or economic collapse. Trump's done, and Clinton still hitting the campaign trail isn't complacency.
Lord Frieza
Member
The best way to look at this move is less about complacency of Trump winning, and more about the reality that a Trump win, at this point, can only come at a freak incident (major event that shakes the election and propels Trump at a rate never seen in American politics, a "Silent Majority" that isn't represented in the polls vote in mass and only vote for Trump, a depressed turnout for Democrats to an epic and unbelievable degree coupled with no depressed turnout for Republicans), and let's be honest, there's no real way to combat these incidents, hence freak, by Clinton or anyone. They are too out there, and there's just no real controllable elements within them if they were to come true at this point in the election. So, instead of operating on the fringe possibility, she's focusing on the realistic one of flipping Congress. Because if she's going to lose by any of those I mentioned, there's no way she can stop it from happening. I don't think there's anyone that can.
Badlucktroll
Member
I have a feeling that Alot of voters will write in Bernie Sanders.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
Literally nobody else has that feeling.
Outliers. Single polls can just sample the wrong people and be wrong when compared to the electorate at large. Then you have pollsters like Rassamen that like to manufacture polls for other reason (chief of which it's profitable). Push and pull the strings of who you poll, and raise and lower the weights you give certain demographics, and you get the poll you want, even if it's hilariously in contrast to who will go to vote.
For example: some polling in Florida is making the assumption and weighting that Clinton will get less of the Hispanic vote than not only Obama, but Kerry and Gore.
That's just not reality looking at demographics and trends.
Anyone who is still that adamant about choosing Sanders over anyone else at all costs are probably the type of person who aren't going to vote anyway.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
It's been over for months. Trump literally has no ground game. As in nothing, outside of a few offices here or there that are more for show than anything else. He has no GOTV machine and next to no technology to track support on election day. His "campaign" has largely been a scam that is siphoning campaign money to his businesses.
No one is complacent, dems are more excited to vote than republicans. And with Trump alleging fraud he is further deflating his supporters. It's going to be ugly, and potentially historic. Especially if republican voters stay home in districts that matte for the House majority.
Paltheos
Member
I'm concerned if democrats gain control, they'll just do the same thing the republicans did, but maybe my fears are unfounded.
All I want is a district map with straightforward guidelines: All district maps must but polygonal (except for state borders, which would count as a side), limited to x number of sides and with sides mostly equal in length and angles that are mostly obtuse. Due to the nature of state shapes and population distribution, this might just be a pipe-dream, but I (like many others) hate gerrymandering. You shouldn't be able to freely manipulate district size to look like a fucking river or a dumbbell to connect desirable constituents.
D
Deleted member 80556
Unconfirmed Member
Democrats finally getting competent at state legislature elections? YES.
I don't think it's wrong they're doing this. They also need to get people who are doing early voting to vote for senators and congressmen.
User 463088
Banned
Ya, no. Even a poll of Vermont, when given the choice to write him in, almost no one took that option. People do not go to the polls and do a write in. People barely go to the polls when people are on the ballot.
The Albatross
Member
I don't think complacency is the word, but I don't want her to get too cocky... There doesn't seem to be much to gain by a campaign strategy to pretend that Trump doesn't exist.
Hubris is the word. And I think she's still on it.
Otherwise, we could have something like this:
zyxwvu4321
Member
This election has made me hate the words "complacent" and "complacency."
Lord Frieza
Member
There's been an extended election cycle, plus three full Presidential debates, to showcase Trump. Realistically speaking, what else will going directly after Trump two weeks until election really accomplish?
I completely disagree. She killed him in the debates. He's killings himself every single day. What does she gain by focusing on him at this point?
She can safely take the high road and ignore him for two weeks while he continues shooting himself in the foot.
Already Torn
Banned
I think that means she's not going to bother debating or having Twitter fights with him.
LumpOfCole
Member
I'm working so I don't think I can make it out to vote in Florida this year.
Nah I'm kidding, we got early voting. I plan on going out on Saturday the 29th and getting this done. Also got an important state solar amendment to vote on as well.
Nah I'm kidding, we got early voting. I plan on going out on Saturday the 29th and getting this done. Also got an important state solar amendment to vote on as well.
Poodlestrike
Banned
They're not going to pretend he doesn't exist, they're just going to stop addressing him directly. A big part of this is going to be tying downballot candidates to terrible things Trump has said and done.
Realistically speaking, there is no path for a Trump victory at this point, so working on the House and Senate (and Local, if there's time and money for it) makes a lot of sense.
Yeah she's close to sounding cocky there. I mean winning against Trump is no great feat, she's fortunate her opponent was such a dumbass and handed her an easy spot at the Whitehouse.
User 463088
Banned
When y'all say complacency....I wonder if you're familiar with how campaigns work? Her team is modeling everything. Their analytics game is such that, like Obama in 2008 and 2012, they pretty much know, street by street, how individual people are going to vote. They know who has early voted. They know how many votes they are banking. Shifting your message does not impact your ability to still turn out your voters. It just helps other candidates do the same.
Also, your closing argument is supposed to be about you, not your opponent. And not whatever the fuck Trump did in Gettysburg.
Also, your closing argument is supposed to be about you, not your opponent. And not whatever the fuck Trump did in Gettysburg.
Yeah, this is basically how I feel at this point.
Any more gains on him at this point will be nominal- She's reached the point of diminishing returns. Focusing elsewhere is the pragmatic thing to do... And her pragmatism is one of my favorite qualities about her.
Barring some catastrophic story about her with two weeks to go, she should absolutely divert her attention elsewhere. He's likely to say something stupid within the next few days to keep him in the news rotation anyway.
User 463088
Banned
He's on Twitter right now pretending that oversampling is rigging polls.
Lord Frieza
Member
Oh Jesus, take the wheel.
Didn't take long.
He is hilariously incompetent and I'm sure her team knows that the overwhelming predictions about her winning the election are going to bring out the Trump we've all come to know and love this election.
She doesn't have to say a word from now until election day. If she wanted to take a vacation for 2 weeks the outcome would remain the same. Glad she's staying vigilant and trying to help the Dems retake the House too. She smells blood in the water.
GutsOfThor
Member
What is poll oversampling by the way?
Why is it being brought up now?
Why is it being brought up now?
hodayathink
Member
And, in states that will allow it, probably ballot initiatives. IIRC, there's a few states that have gone from committees handling redistricting to letting a computer draw the districts in a non-partisan manner (when the time comes), or at least a few states have put it on the ballot. I think that's the direction that Obama is going to go in.
It made me hate the word "optics".
Made me hate the word 'tremendous.'
User 463088
Banned
So, let's say you want to know how we'll you're doing among Latino voters. In the state you're talking about, they make up 10% of people who will vote. But, in a poll with 500 people, that's only like 50 people. Huge margin of error. So, you run the poll, but then, on purpose, you increase the number of Latino voters to 100 or 200. That way, you get a better sense of where you are with that particular group. You don't include the over sample in the actual top line results. You re-weigh it back to reference the actual percentage of voters in that demographics.
And it's being brought up because Wikileaks loves to lead the Deplorables down stupid paths for the glory of Mother Russia.
User 463088
Banned
That is, you know, not what she's doing.
Monocle
Member
I'll never forget the day everyone stopped arguing about video games.Theconsoleelection war is over.
Darryl M R
Member
Just got the confirmation that I am registered to vote. Let's do this.
The GOP was playing checkers, Hillary is playing chess.
The GOP was playing checkers, Hillary is playing chess.
~Devil Trigger~
In favor of setting Muslim women on fire
lying to polters etc....
Hours Left
Member
Heh.
Vicetrailia
Banned
Democrats are so dominant this cycle, now is the time to tackle everything.
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