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The Battle is Over. Hillary Now Campaigns Against Republican Congress
- Thread starter wildfire
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering_in_the_United_States
That is pretty much the whole reason.
The maps determining the districts for House elections has been drawn to be favorable for Republicans. Also, incumbent congressmen are hard to vote out, many people just vote for the person already holding the office and the House is overwhelming Republican right now.
GutsOfThor
Member
Got it. That makes sense but it's unfortunate how many people fall for any bullshit that wikileaks throws at them.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
While it's true that gerrymandering is an issue, the bigger "problem" is that dem leaning (young or minority) voters tend to live in clusters in cities, whereas republican leaning (white) voters are more spread out. Even a fairer map would result in similar majorities for republicans, pre-2016 at least. I think it's likely that dems cut their House deficit but don't take the majority.
Dr.Acula: Senate seats are voted on by the entire state, not just one district within a state...giving democrats an edge this year because Trump is going to get blown out and hurt the rest of the ticket in many states that have competitive senate races.
Blood Diamonds
Banned
Seriously. There is no significant write in Bernie vote going to occur. He'll not impact anything this race, as is appropriate .
Netherscourge
Banned
Hillary can't get shit done if she doesn't have a majority House/Senate to override filibusters.
The GoPers will obstruct her for 4 straight years; hell, maybe even 8 years. No doubt about it.
Push the ALL DEMOCRATS button folks. Or push them all yourself, one at a time. It'll feel so refreshing to know you're actually making the country move forward.
The GoPers will obstruct her for 4 straight years; hell, maybe even 8 years. No doubt about it.
Push the ALL DEMOCRATS button folks. Or push them all yourself, one at a time. It'll feel so refreshing to know you're actually making the country move forward.
No one is doing that.
Adam_Roman
Member
I have friends who are. I've tried desperately to show them why it's a bad idea but they still aren't convinced. I told them that even Bernie doesn't want their vote because he endorsed Hillary, saying she's the best shot at defeating Trump, and they just don't care.
gutter_trash
Banned
the contrast between Local News versus Cable (national) News is striking.
Clinton camp are running a traditional old fashioned ground game heavily localized in key areas that gets concentrated coverage at a local level (where it counts) while Trump continues to make news for the wrong reasons on a national level for everyone to see.
Clinton camp are smart
Clinton camp are running a traditional old fashioned ground game heavily localized in key areas that gets concentrated coverage at a local level (where it counts) while Trump continues to make news for the wrong reasons on a national level for everyone to see.
Clinton camp are smart
Well, allow us to rephrase- A negligible portion of voters will write in Sanders.
I think there are some Bernie supporters who will vote for Johnson/Trump out of spite, but gladly this election won't be close enough to warrant concern.
gutter_trash
Banned
and there lots of married women who are married to Trump supporters who will be secretly voting for Hillary without telling their hubbies
Because of districts that look like this:
It's so bad that the dems could literally lock in >50% of the vote for house of reps and still not get it back.
rokkerkory
Member
Good stuff. Look for the long term.
She isn't gonna stop until Nov 9th however.
She isn't gonna stop until Nov 9th however.
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
i have seen nothing but trump ads on youtube.
the funny thing is that they play infront of vids for toddlers that my 2 year old son watches everyday. i have no fucking clue why trump is advertising on little baby bum channel but man i laugh every time my gets fucking annoyed watching these ads.
Yep, the state of congressional districts is very sad
Don't think the Democrats will win the house, just too difficult
Palette Swap
Member
It's an interesting phenomenon, not sure if its Democrat specific or just politics
Good news = complacency, people won't vote
Bad news = bed wetting, people won't vote
Let's say there are 20 people voting in a state and that state gets four representatives. That means each representative is voted on by five people. Let's say eleven voters are democrat and nine are republican. The representative district can be divided in the following ways:
District 1 contains 5 Ds and 0 Rs: Elects democrat
District 2 contains 2 Ds and 3 Rs: Elects republican
District 3 contains 2 Ds and 3 Rs: Elects republican
District 4 contains 2 Ds and 3 Rs: Elects republican
Now in order to accomplish something like this on a larger scale, you have to draw the districts in very irregular ways. You have to carve out certain neighborhoods with specific voting patterns to achieve your desired result. These districts are redrawn every 10 years after a new census is taken. During the last redistricting in 2010-2011, Republicans had won a ton of victories at the state level and were able to control this process. Thus, they were able to control the house for at least ten years at a systematic level.
All the complacency talk is silly.
Think of it this way: the New York Giants are playing the Cleveland Browns. It is the middle of the fourth quarter, and the Giants are up 42-3. Who do you think is more likely to be discouraged in this instance: Browns fans or Giants fans? Whose fans are the ones walking out of the stadium early and shutting off their TVs? I don't think I need to elaborate on who each team represents here.
Think of it this way: the New York Giants are playing the Cleveland Browns. It is the middle of the fourth quarter, and the Giants are up 42-3. Who do you think is more likely to be discouraged in this instance: Browns fans or Giants fans? Whose fans are the ones walking out of the stadium early and shutting off their TVs? I don't think I need to elaborate on who each team represents here.
In Canada, federal riding maps are drawn-up by the non-partisan Elections Canada, an arms-length agency of the federal government that handles everything related to federal elections. Gerrymandering basically doesn't exist here.
But, "states' rights", you know. Can't go messing with that in America...
Lord Frieza
Member
Probably thinking that their parents will see it.
In fairness, there is a tendency on the side of Dems, particularly young Dems and progressives, to be complacent on midterm elections, and I think that's where a lot of the concern bleeds over from. But as far as Presidential elections are concerned, there's never been a real precedent for either party being complacent, and the idea that Democrats will randomly do so now in the face of one of my disliked, polarizing and outright hateful opponents the GOP has ever summoned when they're clearly winning is...I dunno, really just kind of dumb? Even if Hillary isn't the most liked candidate out there, I think most Dems have been really energized this cycle against Trump, and the Clinton camp has had such good ground game with registering voters.
Fox Mulder
Member
She has to gather as much support as possible, as she'll be on a clock to get anything done before the midterms where Dems don't vote.
Yup. My cousin despises Hillary. He's doing it in a deep blue state fortunately. He might as well just write in "George Washington" or Deez Nutz because it's equally useful. Bernie doesn't even want these votes. He wants the senate budget committee.
I'm not a "both sides do it" kinda guy, but one nice thing, there are states in America that have passed laws against gerrymandering, requiring independent commissions. They aren't even all blue. Arizona's evil ass legislature is trying to overturn their voter's vote on it right now. Idaho has a commission too. I have a feeling you could get stuff through more states than you'd think. Everyone who isn't running for election basically hates gerrymandering.
Earthstrike
Member
Nah, It was team risk, and the gop had an internal fight about whether to take europe, or try to horse troops in australia. trump won out with australia strat, where Hilary has successfully acquired north america and south america with sizable armies at the three chokepoints.
Dreams-Visions
Member
Go get those senate and house seats. Straight ticket, boys and girls.
YourMaster
Member
The 'Perfect representation' option isn't ideal either. It empowers the elected officials and reduces the effect of the voters. If in that scenario blue does a bad job of governing and 40% of blues voters decide to switch color on the next election, there's no change in seats. And as politicians like job security as much as anybody else they love to draw secure districts.
It's really problematic and shows how districts are fundamentally unfair. Districts by color make voting pointless(1), and mixing colors in districts makes it very easy to strongly over-represent one color(2). So even without active abuse(3) districts suck. And this even ignores the fact that this system basically forces a two party system.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If you want to break the two party system in America then we need to institute instant runoff voting. It's the only way.
Also that graph is a very simplistic breakdown. You're never going to have fair districts that go 100% Democratic or Republican. In most cases a "safe" seat is 60/40. Which means if the Democrat is a particularly bad fuckup you only need 10% more to give it to the Republican.
Frankly I don't see any other form of representative government other than districts. At-large elections? That just comes down to the cities vs. the rural areas. Not sure what kind of system you'd rather have in place.
YourMaster
Member
I would be interested to see numbers on how many elections it takes per district to switch party.
And the answer is always proportional representation.
BoboBrazil
Member
Funny how Trump complains about the polls now, but only the ones he loses. Has no problem believing any poll showing him winning.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
If there is one person who could lose this kind of lead at this point in an election, it's Hillary Clinton. Hope it doesn't happen.
EatinOlives
Member
It's the political version of "Xbox One secret sauce!!"
Scared of what? Donald is completely out of time.
are you people serious with this crap
edit: That's unfair to people. Are YOU serious with this?
Fragamemnon
Member
She dropped 4 points from earlier this week, and 538 has Ohio as tied/red now on the winding path.
So it's a little, but still something.
Not really. He still has an almost impossible path, even with Ohio.
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