I didn't think the penalty was punitive at all, really. Some argued the timer resetting and being marked on the map made it too punitive, but I didn't see that discourage many during beta. And they've since nerfed the timer in favor of rogues.
Based on my time with the beta, and the systems as they were (DZ currency being FAAAAAAAR more valuable than actual drops) I would argue NOT going rogue was punitive. Just due to opportunity cost. Rogues didn't even want your shit, it's bonus at best, they want your money so they can just purchase the best shit from DZ vendors. It's the most direct way to the best stuff. In any MMO, very few people care about anything other than the most direct route to the best stuff. And that's what happened here after a day in DZ. First day was neat with people feeling each other out, cautious alliances, some cooperation, some testing the boundaries. Then day 2 and it's a fucking warzone, because there's a hundred videos on YouTube explaining the system: kill others for currency, buy your shit.
Drops? lol Extract? lol.
Now this isn't necessarily true of the game proper (I wouldn't have preordered gold if I thought so) and with the recent changes, it might play a lot differently in open beta, but it was my honest assessment of the closed beta. Nice guys finish last. And I do suspect this will always be a theme with The Division.
Don't agree? Count the bags on the rope. It's four. The devs want you to fight.