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The Extraction Shooter genre is gamings new "Mario 64 moment", and I'm tired of pretending it's not.

Do you think this genre is primed to blow up?

  • The Extraction genre is the next big thing. I didn't need this thread to tell me that.

  • OP makes some deft arguments.

  • Interesting position but I think OP is wrong.

  • bUnGiE iS jUsT cHaSiNg TrEnDs!

  • OP is retarded


Results are only viewable after voting.

MarkMe2525

Gold Member
The NFL is the most watched sport in America and its regular season is the most punishing. I don't think people are as afraid of risk as many believe. Risk often enhances the experience.
I don't see how the analogy works. There is no inherent risk to those who are watching the NFL regular season. The risk, is to the players, and they players are playing due to the financial and social rewards. There aren't going to be many extraction shooter players who are going to be rewarded with notoriety and multi-million dollar contracts.
 
team america vomit GIF
 

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
I don't see how the analogy works. There is no inherent risk to those who are watching the NFL regular season. The risk, is to the players, and they players are playing due to the financial and social rewards. There aren't going to be many extraction shooter players who are going to be rewarded with notoriety and multi-million dollar contracts.


All NFL fans want their teams to win so that they can make the playoffs. The short NFL season (17 games) makes it so that every game matters. 56% of NFL teams don't make the playoffs.

The league is the most high stakes league in all of N American sports (not sure about soccer) which means risk, when delivered in a fun way, can have incredible mass appeal.
 

MarkMe2525

Gold Member


All NFL fans want their teams to win so that they can make the playoffs. The short NFL season (17 games) makes it so that every game matters. 56% of NFL teams don't make the playoffs.

The league is the most high stakes league in all of N American sports (not sure about soccer) which means risk, when delivered in a fun way, can have incredible mass appeal.

I think you are showing a correlation, and not stopping to consider if you can show causation. You present the fact that nearly half of all teams make the playoffs, and label it as "high risk". I think you are misappropriating the term. You are ignoring many variables, and if anything, it's a gross over simplification of the reason why the NFL is America's most watched sport.
 

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
Was OP alive and/or old enough to read when Mario 64 came out? (Note: not a rhetorical question)
Yes. It was truly a special time to be a gamer...unless you had an obsession with 2D games and resisted the inclusion of the 3rd dimension. Then it would have been a nightmare.
Just grappling here with how you can equate this with a Mario 64 moment. If it was a real 64 moment, nobody would be "pretending its not" and need convincing. 64 moment is defined by the whole world gawking with their jaws hanging open. OP was either not there for 64, or just completely utterly full of shit. Best I can do is too young/naive defense.
The transition from session based (Pac Man) to long form (Final Fantasy) was nearly as special. Multiplayer is currently going through the same transition. The only way you couldn't appreciate that is if you're one of those 2D obsessed gamers who are unable to appreciate the finer qualities of multiplayer gaming.
 
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Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
I think you are showing a correlation, and not stopping to consider if you can show causation. You present the fact that nearly half of all teams make the playoffs, and label it as "high risk". I think you are misappropriating the term. You are ignoring many variables, and if anything, it's a gross over simplification of the reason why the NFL is America's most watched sport.
I don't think so. There are loads of people who only watch less popular sports like basketball and baseball when the playoffs start. When winning and losing has more weight, more consequence, more people tune in because they can appreciate the added drama of every moment. The viewership numbers speak for themselves.
 

MarkMe2525

Gold Member
I don't think so. There are loads of people who only watch less popular sports like basketball and baseball when the playoffs start. When winning and losing has more weight, more consequence, more people tune in because they can appreciate the added drama of every moment. The viewership numbers speak for themselves.
There are also loads of people who only watch more popular sports, when the playoffs start.
 

MarkMe2525

Gold Member
Exactly. People prefer the added drama of the playoffs.
People's propensity to be an audience to drama (high stress), doesn't equate to their interest in being involved in it. If your argument was focused around the extraction shooters potential popularity in e-sport viewing, then it would work. In this situation, I don't believe it does. It would be like making that argument that "murder is the Mario 64 moment of life", do the popularity of true crime shows and podcasts.
 
Quoted directly from the transcript of the latest Bungie dev update video.

"It’s an intense game. So in that sense, we like to say it’s a game that’s not for everybody but if you are interested in sort of having that intense survival experience and having a game where the stakes really matter and you feel like that you’re challenged to survive in a really, really, harsh and interesting world, then Marathon is just right up your alley. So, yeah, hopefully that sounds appealing to you."

Doesn't sound like anything that is going to be the next big thing to me.... Now maybe somebody will crack the code but I don't think Marathon will be the game.
 

BlackTron

Gold Member
Yes. It was truly a special time to be a gamer...unless you had an obsession with 2D games and resisted the inclusion of the 3rd dimension. Then it would have been a nightmare.
The transition from session based (Pac Man) to long form (Final Fantasy) was nearly as special. Multiplayer is currently going through the same transition. The only way you couldn't appreciate that is if you're one of those 2D obsessed gamers who are unable to appreciate the finer qualities of multiplayer gaming.

What do 2D games and multiplayer have to do with each other? 2D games weren't multiplayer? Dude this is like bad takes growing off of bad takes.

I like 3D games, and 2D, and MP, played all 3 back then, and still all 3 today. You have this desperate obsession with making up stuff in others' minds as some sort of explanation for a problem you invented.
 

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
People's propensity to be an audience to drama (high stress), doesn't equate to their interest in being involved in it.
I would argue the rise in popularity of roguelites in the indie genre, Elden Ring, and Battle Royales suggest you're wrong. All 3 genres give players higher stakes in their involvement.

Heck, Tarkov is the most popular Extraction Shooter and it's the most punishing. I think we're moving towards higher stakes gameplay in our games as a whole.

Gaming is still in that "take 12 ingredients and try to make something that tastes good" phase.
 

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
What do 2D games and multiplayer have to do with each other? 2D games weren't multiplayer? Dude this is like bad takes growing off of bad takes.
They both went through transitory periods. Session based to long form.
I like 3D games, and 2D, and MP, played all 3 back then, and still all 3 today. You have this desperate obsession with making up stuff in others' minds as some sort of explanation for a problem you invented.
I'm like the Ken Burns of forum posting. I look at gaming from a wider, more objective lens than most.
 

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
Quoted directly from the transcript of the latest Bungie dev update video.

"It’s an intense game. So in that sense, we like to say it’s a game that’s not for everybody but if you are interested in sort of having that intense survival experience and having a game where the stakes really matter and you feel like that you’re challenged to survive in a really, really, harsh and interesting world, then Marathon is just right up your alley. So, yeah, hopefully that sounds appealing to you."

Doesn't sound like anything that is going to be the next big thing to me.... Now maybe somebody will crack the code but I don't think Marathon will be the game.
Please list me "a game for everybody" and I will show you a game that didn't appeal to most gamers.

Also, didn't Arrowhead Studios have "A game for everybody is a game for nobody" as their studio mission statement? That game broke records for PlayStation.
 

MarkMe2525

Gold Member
I would argue the rise in popularity of roguelites in the indie genre, Elden Ring, and Battle Royales suggest you're wrong. All 3 genres give players higher stakes in their involvement.

Heck, Tarkov is the most popular Extraction Shooter and it's the most punishing. I think we're moving towards higher stakes gameplay in our games as a whole.

Gaming is still in that "take 12 ingredients and try to make something that tastes good" phase.
Addressing the Tarkov argument first. Tarkov being the most popular extraction shooter, doesn't tell us anything about the market as a whole. Like any and all creative endeavors that are made products, there are niches. Something being the most popular in a particular niche, doesn't tell us anything about games outside of said niche.

Yes, these "high risk" games have became popular over the past decade. There also wasn't many options for the player who enjoyed that style of gameplay, beforehand. It just as easily could be that this market was not being served, previously, and now is.
 

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
Addressing the Tarkov argument first. Tarkov being the most popular extraction shooter, doesn't tell us anything about the market as a whole. Like any and all creative endeavors that are made products, there are niches. Something being the most popular in a particular niche, doesn't tell us anything about games outside of said niche.

Yes, these "high risk" games have became popular over the past decade. There also wasn't many options for the player who enjoyed that style of gameplay, beforehand. It just as easily could be that this market was not being served, previously, and now is.
Nobody truly knows. We just have to read the tea leaves.

I think the current gaming landscape (multiplayer mostly) is underserving its market with the current crop of offerings. That's why I expect continued growth in multiplayer over the next 5 to 10 years.
Pretty sure the whole forum knows that your insights for massive market shifts come entirely from personal opinions and not from some sort of unbiased clairvoyance.
Doubtful. I've been on the Live Service train since 2017 because I instantly recognized how uncompetitive the old model was in comparison. Fortnite was revalatory.

What has happened to the Live Service and old model markets since 2017? One has grown significantly, the other has shrunk significantly. Maybe I got lucky and the market followed my preferences, or maybe I was able to distinguish between my preferences and genuine market advantage?
 

BlackTron

Gold Member
Doubtful. I've been on the Live Service train since 2017 because I instantly recognized how uncompetitive the old model was in comparison. Fortnite was revalatory.

What has happened to the Live Service and old model markets since 2017? One has grown significantly, the other has shrunk significantly. Maybe I got lucky and the market followed my preferences, or maybe I was able to distinguish between my preferences and genuine market advantage?
ABJFCTR.jpeg
 

A.Romero

Member
I mean, yes but no. GaaS is very popular we like it or not. It's the rage with the younger generations. We are from a previous generation clinging to our old preferences. I'm not big on these trends and probably will never find the angle but kids do. For example, yesterday I saw my 8 yo stepson watch a 2 hour youtube video talk about an anime he didn't even know the name... Just a summary instead of watching the full thing like I would do. It just boggles my mind.

That said, extraction is just one single genre, hard to know if it is really the most popular thing (at least outside of Russia).
 

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
Men_in_Boxes Men_in_Boxes it's time to remove the Concord disc from your console and finally play a few actual games. You're losing it.
I'm glad you brought this up.

Concord failed, in large part, because it had the worst progression I'd ever witnessed in a multiplayer game.

Marathon represents the opposite end of the spectrum. Long form progression.

They're learning. You should too.
 

BlackTron

Gold Member
Men_in_Boxes Men_in_Boxes it's time to remove the Concord disc from your console and finally play a few actual games. You're losing it.

Just imagine that life. Staring at the ceiling, pondering and dreaming up all those reasons Concorde failed despite being a GaaS, holding onto them, cherishing them. Moment by moment, day by day.

Edit: I posted too late he beat me by 1 minute.
 
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Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
Lol. What are you talking about, you mad bastard 😆
It's really simple to understand.

MLB has 162 games per year. Fans know you can go on a multi game losing stretch and it wont appreciably impact your playoff odds.
NFL has 17 games per year. Fans know that a multi game losing streak diminishes your chances at reaching the playoffs.

There's more drama in the NLF because it has fewer games. The stakes are higher. We're drawn to drama.
 

IDKFA

I am Become Bilbo Baggins
It's really simple to understand.

MLB has 162 games per year. Fans know you can go on a multi game losing stretch and it wont appreciably impact your playoff odds.
NFL has 17 games per year. Fans know that a multi game losing streak diminishes your chances at reaching the playoffs.

There's more drama in the NLF because it has fewer games. The stakes are higher. We're drawn to drama.

I don't understand the comparison here.

If it was about risk the European football (soccer) leagues would be the most watched sport in America.
 

SHAKEZ

Neo Member
Extraction shooters are just not that fun for most people.
Most of the gameplay is about sweating bullets at every step you take, then going to the base and repeating the process. If you win, goo now you're in for more stressful gameplay, if you lose you lost everything and stressed for nothing.
 

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
I don't understand the comparison here.

If it was about risk the European football (soccer) leagues would be the most watched sport in America.
Isn't the Premier League the most watched league on planet earth?

It's also not about one ingredient.

If I say sugar is important to the taste of a cookie, you wouldn't then say "Then a cookie with 90% sugar in its ingredients will taste better than a cookie with 20% sugar."

Risk and stakes are important in making gameplay more exciting, but there's obviously a balance.
 

coffinbirth

Member
It’s truly baffling that CoD, BF or Farcry hasn’t made a mode like Tarkov using their pre existing engines / tools / assets. Easy money especially considering Tarkov is a buggy, broken, laggy, cheater infested mess lol.
CoD has DMZ, and probably made more money in skins that the rest of the genre combined. It's now stalled out.
BF couldn't even get BR right.
And, IMO Ubisoft relegated extraction mode to Tom Clancy crap, see: The Division. Who knows if they even bother doing it again.

Tarkov hype is kinda over too.

Cautiously optimistic for Marathon, the actual game...Sony's support after they realize Extraction isn't a cash cow?

Not so much.
 

IDKFA

I am Become Bilbo Baggins
Isn't the Premier League the most watched league on planet earth?

It's also not about one ingredient.

If I say sugar is important to the taste of a cookie, you wouldn't then say "Then a cookie with 90% sugar in its ingredients will taste better than a cookie with 20% sugar."

Risk and stakes are important in making gameplay more exciting, but there's obviously a balance.

I don't understand how the NFL being the most popular sport in the US equals extraction shooters are the new "Mario 64" moment in gaming? Because people like risks?
 

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
I don't understand how the NFL being the most popular sport in the US equals extraction shooters are the new "Mario 64" moment in gaming? Because people like risks?
You have to read the OP. It's more about session based games transitioning to long form games.

The reason why I brought up the NFL is because people keep regurgitating the same talking point - "Extraction Shooters will never be big because there's risk involved in the gameplay loop."

That doesn't check out for me, because we see evidence of people enjoying risk/stakes in other popular mediums (games even).
 

Filben

Member
Nice OP. Especially the first sentences.

Personally, after I came into contact with Hunt: Showdown I can't enjoy other MP shooters anymore. The adrenalin, atmosphere and thrill is unrivaled by anything I've played (BF, Insurgency, CoD, Valorant, OW). Only thing that comes close despite not being an extraction shooter is Hell Let Loose. Holy cow but this is only playable with a team that exactly knows what it's doing.
 
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