THE OFFICIAL UFC 75: CHAMPION V. CHAMPION THREAD
The Official Website of UFC 75
The show is free! Everybody, watch it!
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SCHEDULE OF EVENTS
The shows leading up to and including
Wednesday, 9/5/2007
11pm (Spike TV) - UFC 75: CHAMPION v. CHAMPION Hype Special
Friday, 9/7/2007
10:30am EST - (UFC.com) UFC 75 Weigh Ins, Live!! (apparently re-airing on Spike prior to UFC 75)
Saturday, 9/8/2007
9:00pm EST (Spike TV) UFC 75: CHAMPION v. CHAMPION, from the 02 Arena, London, England
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NMES PLUG
I want to once again invite everyone to check out my online MMA talk show, SWEEP THE LEG, which airs every Thursday at 8pm eastern/5pm pacific. Each week, we discuss all of the latest MMA news and rumors and bring you previews and recaps of all of the important MMA events. Heres what to expect on this weeks show:
- Our WEC 30 recap
- Our UFC 75 preview
- An update on Fedors status
- Two new UFC related shows on the horizon
- Updates on Evan Tanner, Karo Parisyan, Dean Lister, Mike Swick, and Joe Lauzon, among others
- Our overview of several of the fighters youll see on The Ultimate Fighter 6
If that sounds like its worth your while, then check us out this Thursday, 8pm eastern (5pm Pacific) at www.fightersmind.com. You can listen to our show as it streams live, or download any of our current or previous shows in the archives.
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THE FIGHT CARD
including partial odds courtesy of NEWBODOG.com (NOTE: Card and odds subject to change):
The Under Card (may not air due to time constraints)
Jess Liaudin v. Anthony Torres - Welterweight
Naoyuki Kotani v. Dennis Siver - Lightweight
Gleison Tibau v. Terry Etim - Lightweight
Thiago Silva v. Tomasz Drwal - Light Heavyweight
The Main Card (Guaranteed to air unless theres a stinker)
Paul Taylor v. Marcus Davis - Welterweight
Houston Alexander (-185) v. Alessio Sakara (+155) Light Heavyweight
Michael Bisping (-225) v. Matt Hamill (+185) Light Heavyweight
Mirko Filipovic (-360) v. Chieck Kongo (+280) - Heavyweight
Quinton Jackson (-140) v. Dan Henderson (+110) - UFC/PRIDE Light Heavyweight Title Unification Match
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BREAKDOWN
The info on the fighters, and the picks to win each match in bold.
Jess Liaudin (11-8-0) v. Anthony Torres (5-0-0) Welterweight
Jess Liaudin is a joruneyman fighter who defeated Dennis Siver at UFC 70 in an upset. Against Paul Daley, Shonie Carter, and Paul Taylor (Liaudins only opponents of note prior to Siver), Liaudin is 0-3.
Liaduin faces off against Anthony Torres from The Ultimate Fighter 2. Torres has a UFC victory over game fighter Pat Healy via rear naked choke and carries an official professional MMA record of 5-0. Injuries have prevented Torress last couple of fights from taking place, but he is healthy and will look to utilize his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu to get the best of Liaudin.
I was inclined to give this fight to Torres based on Torress superior Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, against Liaudins preferred style of submission wrestling. However, it seems the win over Siver lit a fire under Liaudins butt. In addition to coming off a big win, Liaudin has been training with Dan Henderson at Team Quest California in preparation for this fight. This should easily get Liaudin the best prepared for a fight he has ever been, and with that perperation and his wealth of experience, its hard to discount his chances against Torres who, despite having the superior ground game, does not have many fights to his credit. Also, this will be the first time that Torres has fought outside of the Hawiian or Pacific time zone, and while as a professional athlete he should be more than capable of handling the time change, theres no telling what the huge time change will do to Torress system. I dont discount Torress abilities, though. But what pushes me over the edge is a little rule I have coming out of UFC 70 (more on this later): always bet on English fighters who are fighting in England. Ok, so technically Liaudin is French, but his main fight camp is based in London. Thats just enough to tip my prediction in favor of Liaudin.
Naoyuki Kotani (17-6-5) v. Dennis Siver (10-4-0) - Lightweight
Dennis Siver was upset at UFC 70 when he lost to Jess Liaudin via armbar. He will have to watch out for that same hold against Naoyuki Kotani, who, in 5 of his last 6 victories, has won via arm bar. Fortunately for Siver, Kotani has lost 6 times since the first of those arm bar victories, and has drawn with his opponents three times in that period of time.
Im inclined to write Kotani off entirely for having lost to Rich Stinking Clementi, but then Siver lost to Liaudin who was 10-8 when they fought (which is actually worse than Clementi if you can believe it). Kotani is more comfortable at 155lbs., which Siver will have to drop to for this fight, but that should give the strength advantage to Siver. Though Kotani has lost to a whos who list, he has only lost twice since 2005, to Luiz Azeredo September 2005 and to Thiago Tavares this past April, taking Tavares to a decision. In Azeredo and Tavares, Kotani faced superior opponents to Siver, and in the cases of Tavares, took an extremely talented fighter to the judges score cards. Ultimately, Ill go with Kotanis resume, despite his losses, over the probable strength advantage Siver should have, and Ill pick Kotani via submission (and what the hey, via arm bar), in the second round.
Gleison Tibau (14-4-0) v. Terry Etim (10-0-0) - Lightweight
Now heres an interesting fight that I imagine very few people actually care about.
Terry Etim last fought on UFC 70 against Matt Grice, who wrestled for the University of Oklahoma between injuries (which seemed to pile up one after the other). In typical wrestler fashion, Grice attempted to take Etim down and fed Etim his neck, which Etim promptly used to sink in a guillotine for the win.
Etim will face Gleison Tibau, who has a background in both Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and wrestling. Tibau works a slower pace than Etim does, but it has been largely effective to this point in his career (7 victories via submission, 5 via decision). Tibau will be dropping down to 155lbs. for this contest.
Tibau is a good fighter if not yet distinguished. He has lost to the likes of Nick Diaz and Marcelo Brito, who are good opponents, but hes also lost to, I kid you not, ANACONDA ANACONDA. Of course, coming from Brazil, we cannot rule out the possibility that Tibau actually fought an Anaconda at some point. Seriously though, Tibau has not distinguishing wins on his record that I can cite as evidence of his superiority over Etim. What Tibau does have, however, is a ground game, which he will certainly have fined tuned now that he is training with American Top Team. I have a hard time imagining that Tibau will be submitted, and that may make the difference, as Etim has won 9 of his 10 fights via submission. But I cannot pick against an English fighter in England, especially one with the motor of Etim. I predict Etim will outwork Tibau and win via decision.
Thiago Silva (10-0-0) v. Tomasz Drwal (7-1-0) Light Heavyweight
This is an interesting matchup between two powerful strikers. Silva comes out of Chute Boxe in Brazil, which says it all, really. Drwal may be an unkown, but 8 of his 14 victories have come via KO to TKO, with only two decisions, and one of his submission victories, where he avenged his only career loss to Ulf Fritzmann, was a submission due to strikes. Drwal is a very powerful fighter who, as his record indicates, likes to ground and pound his way to victory and has done so very successfully. In Thiago Silva, Drwal will face by far his toughest test to date.
And thats where the science of fighting ends for me when predicting this one. You see, there are a few rules in the UFC. Everyone is very familiar with the Roger Huerta rule, of course. After the last UFC even in England, the rule became always bet on English fighters who are fighting in England. The corollary to that rule was never bet on German fighters who are fighting in England (see: Siver, Dennis). And while Drwal is not German by decent (hes from Poland), he does train with the German Best Team. But even for me thats quite a stretch to determine the winner in this fight. However, there is another rule Ive yet to mention: the Tiago rule, which states that No man named Thiago shall lose unless he faces a title contender. This has held true for Thiago Alves (4-2- in UFC), who has only lost in the UFC to Jon Fitch and Spencer Fisher, both contenders in their respective weight classes, it has held true for Thiago Tavares, who recently dismantled Jason Black to go 2-0 in the UFC, and it will hold true for Thiago Silva, who will get the best of Drwal in the stand up and win via TKO to remain undefeated in the UFC.
Paul Taylor (8-1-1) v. Marcus Davis (12-3-0) Welterweight
Paul Taylor won in his UFC debut at UFC 70, defeating Edilbeto de Oliveira. By his own admission, he was a bit overwhelmed in his ocatagon debut, not knowing what to expect leading up to the fight. I point that out because his opponent at UFC 75, Marcus Davis, felt that Taylor looked as though he was unaffected by all of the goings-on leading up to his match. Davis should be ready, then, to face a composed Taylor, who says he knows exactly what to expect in his second foray in the UFC, at least in terms of distractions leading up to the fight. When Taylor gets in the ring, it is unlikely he will be ready for what Davis will bring into the cage.
A former professional boxer with a record of 22-1-2, 17KOs, Davis has impressed with his boxing ability in the octagon thus far. However, it is Daviss refined submission skills that have been the talk lately, as Davis says he wants to prove that he is more than just a stand up fighter. He may have another opportunity when he faces off against Taylor, who has defeated Zelg Galesic, who many call Mini Cro Cop based on his impressive stand up abilities, via TKO. Taylors victory over Oliveira also came by way of TKO due to strikes. However, Taylors striking shouldnt be overstated. He was able to TKO a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter in Oliveira, a feat not particularly impressive. A TKO victory over Galesic is noteworthy, although Taylor bested Galesic in only Galesics second professional fight. Against a seasoned veteran with the boxing prowess of Davis, I do not expect Taylor to fare nearly as well as he did at UFC 70. Look for Davis to win the stand up battle and keep his win streak rolling.
Houston Alexander (7-1-0) v. Alessio Sakara (11-5-0) Light Heavyweight
We dont know much about Houston Alexander, but we do know that he shocked the world when he knocked Keith Jardine into oblivion at UFC 71. In that contest, Alexander displayed not just tremendous striking ability, but one hell of a chin, as despite being rocked, Alexander was able to re-compose himself and send Jardine rocketing to the moon with one of the prettiest uppercuts youve ever seen in MMA. Alexanders only professional loss was in his first contest; a distant memory at this point as Alexander looks to make it two in a row in UFC.
His opponent is journeyman Alessio Sakara. Although he has an 11-5 record to his credit, Sakaras first victory over an opponent with a winning record came at UFC 70 against Victor Valimaki. While his resume is undistinguished, Sakara is very skilled on his feet, as he comes into MMA as a former professional boxer. If Houston Alexander wants to stand and trade, Sakara should be all too keen on that idea.
On the surface, one might say sure, Alexanders uppercut was executed like a professional boxer would, but Sakara WAS a professional boxer. However, Sakara has managed to disappoint mightily in his MMA career thus far. In addition to having defeated only one opponent with a winning record (and Valimaki is a journeyman in his own right), Sakara was knocked out when he dropped to Middleweight to face Drew McFedries. Considering Sakara has also ventured up to Heavyweight, and given his background in boxing, there is little excuse for such a loss. With Sakaras disappointments in mind and Alexanders seeming toughness in absorbing some of Jardines best shots, I believe Alexander will rack up his second victory in the UFC.
Michael Bisping (13-0-0) v. Matt Hamill (3-0-0) Light Heavyweight
Season three of The Ultimate Fighter saw the breaking out of Michael Bisping into the main stream of MMA when he won the Light Heavyweight tournament. That doesnt mean that Bisping was new to the fight game, however. Bisping has fought professionally since 2004, including two fights in Cage Rage. Bisping is a well rounded fighter, but his striking is the most dangerous aspect of his game. We were given a reason to question Bispings ground game when he fought Elvis Sinosic at UFC 70, when Sinosic very nearly submitted Bisping early in the second round. While Bisping worked his way out of the predicament and onto victory via TKO, he apparently wanted to leave nothing to question, deciding to train with Quinton Jackson and Juanito Ibarra at their Big Bear facility in preparation for his fight against Hamill. Bisping says he has been working on his wrestling and jiu jitsu primarily in order to be able to prevent Hamills takedown.
Matt Hamill was also introduced to the world during his time on The Ultimate Fighter 3, often times butting heads with Bisping. Hamill displayed his strength and wrestling ability on the series, and thus far in the Octagon, with two TKO victories in three matches. Hamill is still very new to MMA, but looks to progress rapidly with his training camp, Team Punishment, headed up by Tito Ortiz. Under Ortizs tuteledge, we should expect Hamills wrestling ability to be adapted to MMA in superb fashion, in addition to Hamills conditioning being the best it can be.
This is an interesting fight. This is a matchup of a well rounded fighter who has shown weakness on the ground and who many folks feel is being protected, against a yet one-dimensional fighter who has the ability to capitalize on his opponents weakness but offers little else at this point in his fighting career. Many MMA observers who are far closer to the UFC than I feel this fight will be a largely boring, grind em out victory for Hamill. Who am I to doubt these people, people who I have the utmost respect for in this business? Well, though I may look foolish in hindsight, I will go the other way and predict Bisping to come out on top.
I grant you that Bisping appears to be the British version of Roger Huerta, and that, unlike Huerta, Bisping has had a greater degree of difficulty with his UFC opponents thus far. At the same time, Bisping has finished all three of his opponents via TKO within two rounds, so you cannot completely discount his abilities. Likewise, Bisping has won all 13 of his professional fights, or ten more professional fights than Hamill has ever competed in, and experience means a lot to me. Bisping is also the superior fighter standing, where, as Bisping put it, Hamill cannot strike a match.
While its true that Hamill is a power wrestler and should be able to wrestle Bisping down and control him, I dont know that I am sold on Hamills wrestling ability. Hamill is a NCAA division III national wrestling champion three times over across three different weight classes, which I dont want to disparage in any way. If anyone is going to teach Hamill to translate his amateur wrestling into successful wrestling for fighting, it will be Tito Ortiz. But that transition will take time; more time than three UFC fights, I believe. And though Bispings UFC opponents have been mediocre thus far, Hamills opponents have been that much worse. Hamill first defeated TUF3 underachiever Jesse Forbes and Rex Holman, but wrestlers-turned-fighters who simply did not compare to Hamill on the ground and (and heres the key) had no other aspect of the fight game to fall back on. Between those fights, Hamill faced TUF 2 heavyweight contestant Seth Petruzelli, who represents Hamills toughest opponent to date, and who, despite being a largely underwhelming fighter in all aspects of the game, took Hamill to a decision.
I feel like Im piling on Hamill at this point. I dont mean to discredit the guy, but I do doubt him when he faces off against someone with the experience and the well-roundedness of Michael Bisping. I would love to say that Hamill will be the better conditioned fighter heading into this match, but even his training at altitude is mitigated by Bisping training quite literally just down the road from Hamill at the same altitude. And while I dont think it will affect Hamill much (I mean, he is deaf after all), the home town advantage could be another weighing factor that tips the scale towards Bispings side in this fight. Bisping is already suprememly confident going into this fight without, in my opinion, spilling over into becoming cocky or arrogant. With the home town crowd pulling for him all the way, I certainly cant imagine Bisping not being emotionally energized for the fight.
Mirko Cro Cop Filipovic (22-5-2) v. Cheick Kongo (10-3-1) Heavyweight
Cro Cop is looking to rebound in front of the English crowd, having most recently been knocked out by his own maneuver, the high kick, by Gabriel Gonzaga. The stunning upset caused many to question whether Cro Cop had prepared properly for his opponent. Well, put any questions about Cro Cops preparation to rest this time around; Cro Cop has added a cage to his training facility, as well as brining in Gilbert Yvel and Remy Bojansky to help him sharpen his stand up, as well as Dean Lister to work on his ground game. This should be the most prepared we will see Cro Cop in the UFC to date.
Cheick Kongo is coming off a decision victory over Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter Assuerio Silva at UFC 70. Although Kongo was able to avoid being submitted and earn the victory, it had almost nothing to do with Kongos ground game. While Kongo is an extremely talented kickboxer, he has no ground game to speak of. To help remedy this, Kongo has taken to training with Juanito Ibarra and the rest of his camp, which leading up to UFC 75 included Rampage and Michael Bisping. Of course, against an opponent like Cro Cop, the ground game is unlikely to play a major part in the match, which is sure to please Kongo, who would be more than glad to test Cro Cops kickboxing abilities.
This fight should be a lot closer than most people think it will be. Its funny. Cro Cop was knocked out in spectacular fashion at UFC 70, and it was almost a better outcome than the decision victory Kongo earned in a horrid match on the same event. Cro Cop is still seen as a killer of men, though now even his greatest supporters are forced to admit that he can be bested in the one area he seemed to have an advantage over all his opponents in, the stand up game. Of course, that doesnt mean Cro Cop is a slouch on the feet by any means; he is still a world class striker, among the very very best in the sport to be sure. However, Kongo may be as well. Its difficult to say that, especially when comparing him to Cro Cop, but while Kongo lacks a highlight reel on the level of Cro Cops, that doesnt take away his success in K1. In time, Kongo may be the new Cro Cop, who also developed into the MMA fighter he is today as a former K1 standout. Thats the difference to me: Kongo could one day be what Cro Cop is right now, and, of course, Cro Cop is what Cro Cop is right now. While a matchup between two strikers of their caliber can yield a result in eithers favor, I have to respect Cro Cops veteran savvy, with nearly twice as many fights on his MMA record as Kongo. But when the leather flies, its anyones guess as to how the match will unfold. It should be a really exciting show from these two, either way.
Quinton Rampage Jackson (27-6-0) v. Dan Henderson (22-5-0) UFC/PRIDE Light Heavyweight Title Unification Match
Rampage Jackson is coming off the biggest victory of his career, knocking out Chuck Liddell in the first round at UFC 71 to win the UFC Light Heavyweight Title. While the fight didnt last long enough for us to determine whether Rampages new camp, led by Juanito Ibarra, made all the difference or if Rampage simply has Liddells number, we do know that Rampage is riding a huge wave of momentum as he head into his fight with Dan Henderson. Of course, Rampages slams have become the stuff of legend, but no one should discount the tools he brings to a fight. Rampage is a very good wrestler, who more than held his own in his fight against Olympic Silver Medal Wrestler Matt Lindland. Rampages striking ability is superb and to be feared, as evidenced against when Rampage beat Chuck Liddell at his own game. For this fight, we may see Rampages striking taken to a whole new level, as Rampage has been training with Sugar Shane Mosely, fine tuning his stand up game. Rampages weakness would be his jiu jitsu game, which he should be able to get away with against Henderson.
Not to be outdone, Dan Henderson is also riding a huge wave of momentum, having knocked out former PRIDE Middleweight (205lbs.) champion, Wanderlei Silva, at PRIDE 33 in February. While Hendersons stand up is very good, his KO of Silva left many observers at a loss. After all, Dan Hendersons bread and butter is his tremendous wrestling ability. A two-time member of the US Olympic Greco-Roman wrestling team (92 and 96), Henderson is among the very best wrestling talents in MMA today. Henderson also has the impressive distinction of being the first man in PRIDE (or UFC) history to hold a championship in two weight classes at the same time, as Henderson currently reigns as PRIDEs Welterweight (185lbs.) champion.
This is one hell of a matchup. On the one hand, a casual observer would say that with Henderson fighting above his natural weight class, Rampage should have the clear size advantage. Another casual observer may point out Hendersons impressive wrestling credentials, giving him the advantage on the ground. However, both conclusions may be somewhat faulty. Both Rampage and Henderson stand at 61, so while Rampage will have the strength advantage, its not as though Rampage towers over Henderson or has a tremendous reach advantage. At the same time, while Rampage is the stronger of the two fighters, as a wrestler, Henderson is more than capable of mitigating the strength of an opponent. Of course, thats where Rampages wrestling ability will come into play. While hes not nearly as decorated a wrestler as Henderson, Rampage is similar to Tito Ortiz in that Rampage has tremendous MMA wrestling ability. Weve seen him handle Matt Lindlands wrestling ability, and weve seen him ground Ricardo Arona only to slam him into oblivion. To put it plainly, the matchup on the ground should be really, really close and exciting. Of course, the fight may not end up on the ground, as both Rampage and Henderson are comfortable on their feet. On paper, Rampage brings the superior striking game into the octagon, and his training with Juanito Ibarra, Cheick Kongo, and Shane Moseley is only going to improve his stand up game. But who among us will be quick to discount the stand up skills of a man who knocked Wanderlei Silva out, the man who twice knocked Rampage out in PRIDE?
I keep going back and forth with this one. These two are really evenly matched (it feels like its easy to say that about most UFC matches these days) . I had felt Henderson would be able to get the best of Henderson until very recently. I now like Rampage to unify the PRIDE and UFC titles with his ability to limit what Henderson can do on the ground as well as Rampages standup, which I feel is better than Hendersons. If Henderson wins, though, I will not be surprised in the least.