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The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla (WSJ)
- Thread starter Guevara
- Start date
sankt-Antonio
:^)--?-<
You have to witness a mass car production line to understand that a mass produced car is a hell of a lot more then just building a car that can technically be put together by mechanics.
This is also something you can't just buy into, it has to grow within the company by trail and error Imo - Thats also what seperates "startup"/low volume carmakers from the traditional companies.
But Tesla will get there with time.
This is also something you can't just buy into, it has to grow within the company by trail and error Imo - Thats also what seperates "startup"/low volume carmakers from the traditional companies.
But Tesla will get there with time.
Hello? This is Hailun!
Member
Dude is potentially committing a crime here. Most people have suspected Tesla of this for a good while now, especially with selling Autopilot but not actually giving it to people.
Of course.
But this isn't their first car, it isn't even their second. If they want to achieve their own goals that they set, then they have to get this right.
Hello? This is Hailun!
Member
They have problems with fabrication in general.
I know guys who have Model S' in the body shop for months because Tesla can't provide the body panels needed after a fender bender.
It's been this way for years and the problem hasn't been rectified.
When the Mission E comes out I imagine Tesla is gonna feel it really hard.
Lots of companies make small production volume cars. It doesnt compare to mass production.
CadetMahoney
Member
sankt-Antonio
:^)--?-<
The S and X models are not volume cars.
Elon does amazing things, but makes such exaggerated promises that his actual accomplishments seem trivial. Dude needs to learn the art of underpromising and overdelivering.
biggersmaller
Banned
Thinking about selling my Tesla stock which I'm up 40% on. I basically bought that instead of a car I can't afford.
Revenues needed to catch up to their bloated market cap at some point and there doesn't seem to be a point where that's possible anymore.
Revenues needed to catch up to their bloated market cap at some point and there doesn't seem to be a point where that's possible anymore.
Well right now thats a big if.
Missing a very low 15,000 target by 80% is basically failure to launch. 3 cars per day by hand is the very definition of a paper launch.
But those cars were pitched as stepping stones to lower cost volume production models. So far they haven't demonstrated that they are iterating enough on their production methodology such that it enables volume production, and not just lowered costs of components.
I like Musk, but you can't take any projection he makes seriously. I'm not sure he's ever met a deadline, but that doesn't stop him from boldly proclaiming we'll be on Mars in 2018...oops, 2024.
Just add a decade to every time prediction he makes and you'll be less disappointed.
Just add a decade to every time prediction he makes and you'll be less disappointed.
I'm using your own words. You said GM needs to optimize and retool in order to make a profit. That's a pretty straightforward statement that I'd agree with. Which also implies that their production as it is is poorly optimized.
Does this look like a good growth plan?
I imagine Chevy has a lot of room for error when they're selling a new car at a tiny fraction of the numbers Tesla will.
sankt-Antonio
:^)--?-<
Problem is by 2020/2025 he'll lose his spot in the light. VW is going to have 50 electric models, Benz 30, BMW 15-25. With the quality you expect from these carmakers.
His iPhone moment is passing by if he can't get these cars into customers hands fast enough.
Hello? This is Hailun!
Member
Yeah. But it's called diversification. FCA makes Ferrari and Maserati as their low production, Jeep as their high production.
Tesla isn't boutique enough nor do they make good enough cars to survive on small production numbers alone.
And neither is the Model 3.
I think more from a market expansion and revenue generating sense, not in a we made these so that mass production ramp up would be seamless sense.
Thats a terrible counter example because Chrysler already existed as a behemoth of the auto industry before ever being associated with either of those companies. Making Maserati into Jeep would be very hard.
Hello? This is Hailun!
Member
And Porsche. And Maserati. And Audi.
And these cars are going to cost the same as Tesla, but since they're made by actual luxury car companies they'll drive fantastically well and the interiors won't be shit.
sankt-Antonio
:^)--?-<
I don't "follow cars" all that much, but this is the sense I get. Once already established car manufacturers are putting on 'next-gen' fully electric vehicles, what exactly will there be to make Tesla stand out if Musk doesn't get a strong foothold in the industry by then?
I'm using your own words. You said GM needs to optimize and retool in order to make a profit. That's a pretty straightforward statement that I'd agree with. Which also implies that their production as it is is poorly optimized.
Does this look like a good growth plan?
I imagine Chevy has a lot of room for error when they're selling a new car at a tiny fraction of the numbers Tesla will.
You... you do realize that those are sales numbers and not production numbers, right?
The problem with Tesla is not their sales numbers -- in fact, those are fantastic due to their preorder sales. The problem is their production capacity.
Chevrolet learned an extremely good lesson when they first started the Volt: do not overestimate demand and do not overextend production. They literally had lines completely shut down for the first-gen Volt because no one bought the cars. The Bolt today now shares a production line with another vehicle to reduce line costs, and they correctly aligned their production figures with their expected sales. Or, to put it another way, they're not leaving any money off the table.
Tesla has the opposite, and more worrying, problem: they cannot match their preorder sales as they can't figure out how to do manufacturing properly. That's an extremely limiting factor for growth and allows for competitors to catch up -- which is already happening today. And, to align with what I mentioned above, they are leaving a larger and larger pile of money behind the longer they languish with this problem, a pile of money that may be taken away by some other company.
It's extremely disappointing because they've had the S, X, and the P to figure this out, and they still haven't after all these years.
AI, but other companies are also investing in AI as well, so...
Hello? This is Hailun!
Member
Making Maserati into Jeep would be hard. But not if you have the huge influx of money, influence, investment, and public good will and societal penetration that Tesla has.
Tesla was 10 years ahead of the competition and did nothing with it. They're about to get their lunch eaten.
Maserati went from selling 3k hand built cars a year in 2005 to selling almost 50k this year, on track to sell 75k next year. And this is a company with a terrible reputation for selling half baked and unreliable cars with an interior not up to snuff for the price tag and with a very constrained budget. (That said I fucking love Maserati's and would lease one if I could afford it).
There is 0 excuse for Tesla and Musk.
luckygodzilla
Member
This has always been the problem with Tesla, they've enjoyed an absolute monopoly within the EV luxury market niche, but when you compare them with traditional luxury automotive brands they really fall behind. I've sat in a P100 and driven a P85D, and quite frankly I'd put the quality of their interiors on the same general level as my Mk7 Golf. If you sit back to back between a Tesla, and say something like an Audi its pretty obvious that Tesla feels an entire class behind.
Assuming these manufacturers are able to keep their interior quality for the upcoming EV's on par with their traditional ICE cars, I could really see Tesla in a spot of trouble.
Hello? This is Hailun!
Member
The only thing they'll have is the cache with the Tesla name.
I drive a Panamera S Hybrid. It was cheaper than a Tesla, out performs it on everything except off the line, and it absolutely destroys the Tesla as far as comfort/interior/etc goes.
Well, that really neat windshield is a Tesla only thing that I wish was everywhere.
The "conspiracy theory" is that once the competition is on the market Tesla will bow out and try and sell battery tech to everyone else.
sankt-Antonio
:^)--?-<
Like only Tesla has to deal with suppliers being late/ fucking up. Dealing with this is part of the operation.
Yes obviously. That's what it says on the image. You think they're production is vastly different from the sales? Who knows they could have produced 10,000 in december with all that manufacturing expertise. Get the wsj on the case, people might even be involved in the assembly!
So they learned an extremely important lessons with the volt to avoid shutdown, which they evidently failed to correct.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...bolt-plant-as-inventories-swell-idUSKBN1A227I
And they also learned to reduce line costs, and not leave any money off the table, so much so that they lose 9,000 a car.
And other manufacturers like GM are "catching up" although there's basically no demand for the bolt and no plans to mass produce it.
3k in 2005? Tesla made that many model s in 2012. Then they sold 50k three years later.
Lets not undersell how well theyre doing. The new line is meant to support far more than that so lets see how they do.
Vicetrailia
Banned
Manufacturing is hard as fuck, who knew...
Night Angel
Member
It's almost like someone who runs a company should know this and not lie about their production capabilities.
Right, but the person I responded to asked what the hold up was, and suppliers are the hold up. Don't forget that this car was pushed up in schedule by 2 years. Elon mentioned 9 months ago that suppliers that weren't willing/able to step up to their demand would be fired, and that's what is happening.
jellies_two
Member
I have always felt the focus on US domestic manufacturing has been a problem for an advanced vehicle like the Tesla. They aren't making pickups in Flint. They must win from Ford the very best home grown mass production experts.
The whole quality history of the model S and X and now 3 shows they haven't nailed this at all. People at the high price bracket expect a car with fit and finish and materials of a German car and screwed together like a Korean or Japanese car: what they get is some pretty amazing software loaded into a car built like it's a F150 with the material quality of a Kia.
Musk bought solar city perhaps to save it from bankruptcy and denting his reputation as a miracle worker and he keeps throwing out new ideas (boring company, e-trucks, city to city space travel) but under delivering at Tesla. Even the software side hasn't progressed AP2 beyond AP1 of two years go, in every area.
If he keeps giving fuel to skeptics the stock is going to crater and then who knows? Does he have enough cash to thumb his nose at the stock market?
The whole quality history of the model S and X and now 3 shows they haven't nailed this at all. People at the high price bracket expect a car with fit and finish and materials of a German car and screwed together like a Korean or Japanese car: what they get is some pretty amazing software loaded into a car built like it's a F150 with the material quality of a Kia.
Musk bought solar city perhaps to save it from bankruptcy and denting his reputation as a miracle worker and he keeps throwing out new ideas (boring company, e-trucks, city to city space travel) but under delivering at Tesla. Even the software side hasn't progressed AP2 beyond AP1 of two years go, in every area.
If he keeps giving fuel to skeptics the stock is going to crater and then who knows? Does he have enough cash to thumb his nose at the stock market?
plagiarize
Banned
*tap tap tap*. Is this thing on?
https://insideevs.com/gm-says-two-new-evs-next-18-months-least-20-five-years/
Keep waffling on about the Bolt EV all you like. It isn't the be all and end all of Chevy's plans for electric cars going forwards.
And one woman having a bad road trip in a Bolt isn't in any way shape or form counter to this point.
Chevrolet are going to offer two new fully electric models in the next year and a half. If you don't think they're moving forwards with electric cars, I don't know what to tell you. Twenty new fully electric models in the next five years.
Clearly only doing this because they're forced to.
And did you hear about that one woman who drove her Bolt on a road trip and ran into problems with the existing charging infrastructure?
Johnny Cage In The Shower
Member
Just buy a Bolt people! fuck this Model E, Bolt is an amazing car and a great bang for your buck!
Shit is ugly as sin. Then again the final design of the 3 looks like a porsche fucked a dodge neon, so...
Just_myles
Member
Ok. Well, that's what partnerships are for. I mean they can keep swinging at themselves but, I don't think that will make things better.
If they planned 1500 cars a month and deliver less than 20% of that amount it is clear that at least one important part of the factory isn't working as planned. It can either be a problem that once solved raises the production to the intended 1500 (if it takes then 2 or 3 months to get to that number it doesnt really change much for them, its 3k-4k cars difference... the problem is if it takes more than 6 months, not because 10k cars would be different, but because it's the time they are losing.
As Hello? This is Hailun! said, what Tesla has is the time advantage. To be in the market earlier. They can't lose their only advantage.
Also, I am sure Tesla gets data from the cars sold, so the earlier they are out, the more data they will have to work with and optimize their driverless stuff. They are basically running against the clock to be quicker on the streets so that they can improve their auto-driving as fast as possible and become the first/best autonomous vehicle company around. Imagine how many Teslas Uber and other "taxi' companies would want to buy once they have the green light? Now imagine the same Tesla if they cant make it in time, postbone launches/deliveries, not have a better / earlier autonomous tech... they will just disappear.
As Hello? This is Hailun! said, what Tesla has is the time advantage. To be in the market earlier. They can't lose their only advantage.
Also, I am sure Tesla gets data from the cars sold, so the earlier they are out, the more data they will have to work with and optimize their driverless stuff. They are basically running against the clock to be quicker on the streets so that they can improve their auto-driving as fast as possible and become the first/best autonomous vehicle company around. Imagine how many Teslas Uber and other "taxi' companies would want to buy once they have the green light? Now imagine the same Tesla if they cant make it in time, postbone launches/deliveries, not have a better / earlier autonomous tech... they will just disappear.
I'm going to note that you haven't disputed any of my claims really. The Bolt still currently is not a competitor to the Model 3. Features wise it doesn't stack up and even if it did GM wouldn't produce 500,000 a year anyway and wont with any of its EV models for probably another decade. Your own article even notes that a lot of these are basically going to end up being compliance cars for the chinese markets. Bolt has poor charging and infrastructure compared to Tesla. Not much to dispute there.
entremet
Member
Im far from a Musk worshipper and he has issues, but dude is building a brand new type of company from scratch. Theres going be struggles.
I feel his critics dont understand this. Theres always interia. Really the criticism is rather boring at this point. Guy is disrupting two industries. Stuff isnt gonna be smooth. Setbacks, failure, disappointment is price of admission.
I feel his critics dont understand this. Theres always interia. Really the criticism is rather boring at this point. Guy is disrupting two industries. Stuff isnt gonna be smooth. Setbacks, failure, disappointment is price of admission.
Tesla was founded in 2003. It is not a "brand new type of company," it's a car manufacturing company. Get your shit together, Musk.
You are pretty much describing how every major trendy corporation is. Snapchat got arrogant and supposedlt turned down $30 billion by Google to buy them and instead Instagram stories has obliterated Snapchat recently, something they should have prepared for when it became obvious to Facebook how successful they'd become.
But I agree. People were saying Tesla was in for trouble several months ago. Elon Musk too busy promising hyperloops, powering entire islands like Puerto Rico and global rocket travel to actually produce models of cars as promised.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
I mean this is true but lying to investors is serious as in illegal serious. The comments are not unwarranted.
HeartlessNobody213
Member
Tesla does have the supercharger network going for it so theres that, but its no surprise that Model 3 deliveries wont hit estimates.
Other companies will eventually catch up on the electric end and along with that the A.I but I think Tesla will survive.
I really want to see a Jaguar F-Type and Jaguar XE EV though.
Other companies will eventually catch up on the electric end and along with that the A.I but I think Tesla will survive.
I really want to see a Jaguar F-Type and Jaguar XE EV though.