On April 30, 2011, Toronto will welcome the UFC to the Centre of the Universe
What: UFC 129
When: Pay-per-view starts at 9pm EST, Spike prelims at 8pm EST, Facebook prelims start at 6pm EST
Where: LIVE! from the Skydome (F U, Rogers!) in the heart of Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Why you should watch:
Ladies and gentlemen. I am here to present to you THE premier, pinnacle live event in UFC history. The Ultimate Fighting Championship has built its reputation on the perfection of the arena show. It has mastered the presentation of entertaining 20,000 people with live bloodsport.
However, on April 30, 2011, the UFC will break new ground in its amibition, as it fills a stadium for the first time and puts on an event in front of 55,000 screaming, partisan, Canadian fans, in the greatest city in North America.
The Centre of the Universe
That phrase has two meanings in this thread. The first is as Canadians know it. It is a mocking reference to Toronto's place in Canada as the country's metropolitan hub. It captures Toronto's perceived arrogance, and the rest of the country's perceived resentment.
But, I think the term applies in the MMA world as well, in a more earnest way. It is a little-known fact that Toronto is the true capital of Mixed Martial Arts in North America, in spite of the fact that the sport has, tragically, been outlawed in Ontario until this year. The editors of the popular MMA site Bloody Elbow have admitted that they get more hits from the Greater Toronto Area than any other city in North America. And Dana White himself has admitted that they get more PPV buys from Toronto than any other city, per capita.
So, it is only fitting that the UFC puts on its first stadium show in Toronto the Good. The event sold out its initial 47,000 tickets in the first hour and a half of the UFC fight club pre sale. The UFC sold hundreds, maybe thousands of fight club memberships to people just trying to ensure they could get tickets to this event. They opened up 7,000 more seats two days later, and sold those out in the blink of an eye. The live gate has totalled something like $10-11 million.
But enough about the city. MMA is defined by the fights themselves.
UFC WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP BOUT
Georges "Rush" St. Pierre (21-2) vs. Jake "The Power of Positive Thinking" Shields (26-4-1)
Only one man could have headlined the UFC's first stadium show, in the biggest city in Canada.
Now, don't get me wrong. Dana White could have sold out the 20,000 seat Air Canada Centre with a card headlined by a catchweight bout between Yushin Okami and Jon Fitch. But Dana "Fucking" White didn't want just "another" 3 million dollar gate.
No, Dana White wanted to make a statement.
Dana White needed the most dynamic, dominant athlete in the sport today. Dana White needed the unquestioned #1 or #2 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. Dana White needed a gawdamned Canadian National Hero.
And because Sidney Crosby is still out with a concussion, it was a no-brainer. You put Georges St. Pierre on the card, and you put the card in the Gawdamned Skydome.
Now, the fight itself. I start with Jake Shields.
Jake Shields is an unquestioned top 5 fighter in the division that the UFC has had on lockdown for YEARS. No matter how you cut it, that's impressive. He's 26-4. He's on a 15-fight win streak and hasn't lost in six and a half years. He is an elite grappler, taking a bronze medal at the Abu-Dhabi championships. The man has, through sheer consistent dominance, been able to carve himself a spot at number 3 at 170 lbs in spite of the UFC's dominance in MMA.
But he won't win on April 30. The "why" will come in a moment.
His opponent? The man known by three letters. On April 30, you will hear 55,000 people chanting his name as if they were calling upon an ancient pagan god to accept their sacrifice upon an 8-sided altar.
"GEE-ESS-PEE! GEE-ESS-PEE!"
He's 21-2, with no unavenged losses. Eight-fight win streak, undefeated in four years. And he hasn't lost a round, on any judge's scorecard, in four years. That's 30 rounds in a row that he has looked untouchable within. Yeah, try to find that anywhere else in MMA history. and if you look at www.fightmetric.com/ufcrecords, well, the page basically looks like a GSP fanpage. He has outwrestled a murderer's row of wrestlers, and outstruck everyone he has faced in the past four years. He makes Men look like boys.
Why will he win?
Well, apart from my hyperbolic fanboy ranting, a logical assessment of this fight can be summarized thusly:
Jake Shields: above average takedowns, craptastic striking
GSP: best MMA wrestling at 170, best TD defence in MMA, elite striking
What does that equal? If you said some unholy beating that is a combination of GSP/Fitch and GSP/Koscheck that sets the sport back 14 years in the eyes of the general public, I would ask you for next week's lottery numbers.
Shields doesn't even have the mythical "puncher's chance" that we have talked up for GSP's opponents in the past two years, as he can't punch his way out of a wet paper bag.
Don't get me wrong. It's not impossible for Shields to win. He has a sneaky guillotine, very solid wrestling and scrambling ability, and ungodly ground skills, and so of course he's a threat. But, if GSP is a smart fighter, you would never even DREAM of laying money on Shields if the bookies weren't tempting you with +325 odds for him.
And if nothing else over the past four years, you cannot deny that GSP is someone who fights smartly.
My prediction is this fight being a 5-round drubbing. GSP/Fitch redux, with the possibility of him finishing Shields in the later rounds.
UFC FEATHERWEIGHT TITLE BOUGHT
JOSE "HOLY SHIT DID YOU SEE THAT?" ALDO (18-1) vs. MARK "THE MACHINE" HOMINICK (20-8)
Somehow, the UFC has also managed to maneuver a local Southwestern Ontario boy into a title shot in the co-main event for this card.
Mark Hominick takes on the man who has so far been a wrecking machine at 145, Jose Aldo.
Full disclosure: The London, Ontario Tompkins crew is my original training heartland. I've trained with Hominick. He's the definition of a class act, and I will be wearing my heart on my sleeve cheering for him.
That being said, my head can admit the smart money isn't on Mark.
Jose Aldo is a destroyer. A Muay Thai Terminator, whatever his shin touches turns purple for a month. And "supposedly" he has world-class ground skills as well, but he gives so little of a fuck about that that he doesn't feel the need to prove it.
Now, that's bad for Mark. But the glimmer of hope is the style matchup. Because, although Mark's kryptonite has been submission guys, and Aldo has a great ground game, Aldo doesn't seem inclined to go to it as his strategy. And on the feet is where the matchup is most intriguing.
Because as much as Mark sounds like a broken record in hyping the fight, he is right: Aldo hasn't faced an elite striker like Hominick in MMA yet. Mark is, I think, the best striker in the FW division other than Aldo himself, and that alone gives him a chance. Yes, he has in the past not really checked leg kicks much. But I believe that's because, in the past, he has known that he hasn't had to. Such as the Roop fight. They had trained together. Mark knew he had nothing to fear from Roop's kicks, so he didn't bother. I have to believe Mark won't be so lax against Aldo.
Nonetheless, Aldo is scary. I offer no predication here out of respect for the "Head vs. Heart" dilemma. But...GO HOMINICK!
