This might run well with european partners but german voters will destroy the SPD if they run with making more debts
The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
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He's saying the UK shouldn't give up that card before the negotiations even started. It makes sense in the context of negotiations but of course it's a terrible thing to say. Why would people want to stay in the UK after hearing this?
Sure it will turn ugly. Millions of voters will feel ignored - precisely the situation that lead to this result in the first place.
But it's not like leaving is without its downsides, the question is which option would do more damage in the long run - I still think that leaving would be worse than ignoring the referendum, but "something" (don't ask me what) needs to change for the large portions of the population that already feel ignored.
Thanks for the detailed post Crab, and congrats on your masters
Close, but you still used "neoliberal" less frequently than the poster Crab was responding to
ClosingADoor
Member
He won't turn into Tsipras over night. But the SPD can't just stay in this CDU shadow for all eternity. Gabriel is obviously trying to position the SPD more to the left of the political spectrum. Just a tiny bit.
CyclopsRock
Member
Parliament's in recess.
He wasn't at PMQs last week. He's not been giving any interviews in the media, he's not appeared publicly anywhere.
CyclopsRock
Member
Well he's clearly licking his wounds. I'm not sure the public is suffering much as a result though.
Except that they did, pretty much immediately. Right after the result leave campaigners were coming out that the promises they made could not be implemented. There isn't 350mil to give to the NHS. There is no way to do a deal with the EU and get rid of free movement. There aren't trade deals with other nations just waiting to be made. The so-called 'Project Fear' turned out to be true and the economy will be ravaged by the vote.
accel
Member
That's understandable, but please note that when, for example, May talked about the status of EU nationals in the UK, she paired that with the status of UK nationals in the EU. In truth, it's both sides who are going to use that as a bargaining chip, it's just that on the side of the UK that bargaining chip seems to be bigger, and that's why we hear about it from the UK. If the balance was on the side of the EU, we'd have heard about it from the EU.
I disagree. I believe there is a way to do a deal with the EU and get rid of free movement (of people). There *are* deals with other nations just waiting to be made, I refer you to Canada and New Zealand. Etc.
Again, it's a crisis, yes. It's not rosy. But the reasons to vote Leave (at least the ones I based my opinion on) didn't change one bit.
I see where you are coming from but I have a tough time seeing the EU using UK citizens as bargaining chip.
The Friendly Monster
Member
Fuck that, I am not a bargaining chip, this is not a "both sides are at fault" situation.
accel
Member
Well, they are using the uneven trade dependency, so...
ClosingADoor
Member
Me too, considering German officials are saying that UK workers there should get German citizenship if needed: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...xit-says-german-vice-chancellor-a7116881.html
Sorry, but this is false. A lot of European authorities have come forward to say the Britons are welcomed there, some even offering citizenship. There was not one single EU politician who threatened UK citizens as far as I know.
LabouredSubterfuge
Member
Hahahaha get fucked Farage lad.
Finally, some unexpected good news! Then again, he's quit once... I doubt he'll just gracefully slide out of the spotlight. He enjoys it too much.
KarneeKarnay
Member
Freedom of Movement is a fundamental right ingrained into the EU. This is one of the few things that the EU will not negotiate over. They stand to lose so much more if they move on this, than we do if we were to get control of it. it.
accel
Member
We don't know what it would have been if there were more UK citizens living in the EU than the other way around. Based on the overall stance of the EU in areas where the balance is tipped their way, I think the belief that the EU wouldn't have used that particular card is a bit naive.
Equalling throwing people out with some import tax. Ffs.
Kill Your Masters
Member
So the main guys behind Brexit are signing out or what?
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Which is why we know you are just projecting.
I know I'm repeating myself, but anyone talking about deals to be made with other countries literally doesn't understand how these things are done or what's required.
Firstly, we literally can't do them. Legally etc, until we invoke article 50 and the two years has passed, no trade deal.
Secondly, we actually can't do them - we haven't had trade deal specialists in the UK for 40 years. Any we had went to the EU a long time ago. These things take years and legions of civil servants for a reason - and we have precisely 0 right now. At exactly the same time as we begin the largest and most complicated legal and diplomatic challenge in human history (no joke) - removing the UK from the EU.
Thirdly, of course, there's the market issue. The EU is 45% of our export market right now. You aren't going to replace the worlds largest single market, that is literally off-shore. with a hodgepodge of smaller countries on the other side of the globe.
There will be trade deals, in the end. But it will be a decade until we see them, and meanwhile we will have to undergo crippling burdens as we won't have the single market anymore. It would be economic destruction on an unparalleled scale on small and medium business for them to lose the EU and not have a replacement. And there is no replacement - the best we will do is a number of bilateral deals that are smaller in scale and scope than the single market, decades from now.
Trade is not easy or simple. There's a reason they take years and years to complete. The laughable notion put forward by leave politicians that 'other countries are queing up' is a simple lie.
Firstly, we literally can't do them. Legally etc, until we invoke article 50 and the two years has passed, no trade deal.
Secondly, we actually can't do them - we haven't had trade deal specialists in the UK for 40 years. Any we had went to the EU a long time ago. These things take years and legions of civil servants for a reason - and we have precisely 0 right now. At exactly the same time as we begin the largest and most complicated legal and diplomatic challenge in human history (no joke) - removing the UK from the EU.
Thirdly, of course, there's the market issue. The EU is 45% of our export market right now. You aren't going to replace the worlds largest single market, that is literally off-shore. with a hodgepodge of smaller countries on the other side of the globe.
There will be trade deals, in the end. But it will be a decade until we see them, and meanwhile we will have to undergo crippling burdens as we won't have the single market anymore. It would be economic destruction on an unparalleled scale on small and medium business for them to lose the EU and not have a replacement. And there is no replacement - the best we will do is a number of bilateral deals that are smaller in scale and scope than the single market, decades from now.
Trade is not easy or simple. There's a reason they take years and years to complete. The laughable notion put forward by leave politicians that 'other countries are queing up' is a simple lie.
HazySaiyan
Banned
Well quite frankly we should be giving up that card because it shouldn't even be on the table. Even hinting that you're going to use people as a bargaining chip is disgusting.
Well that sure is a reasonable approach to things mate.
"It wasn't me..."
Kill Your Masters
Member
So 100% of the voters are basically getting fucked, the guys with the plan didnt have a plan, and are now retreating like chicken. Remainers are fucked since the polls came out, but the leavers are basically getting played like a fiddle. Ridiculous.
ClosingADoor
Member
Of course there are more EU citizens in the UK. But there are 1.2 million UK citizens in other EU countries. These are not small numbers also.
KarneeKarnay
Member
Fucking Farage. He and anyone smart enough knows that shit storm they have caused and how badly they have shit the bed on this. Boris backing off PM election, they are both just trying to get away from this as quickly as possible. The cowards.
They don't want to be the ones to drink from the now poisoned chalice of leadership. Cowards both of them.
everyday math
Banned
Are you guys gonna join us in celebrating Independence Day?
The Friendly Monster
Member
Only if the rats had been the ones helping to sink the ship...
TatteredHat
Member
Lol, it says a lot about the campaign you voted for when the main figureheads disappear after WINNING.
It's a treasonous act of cowardice from the pair of them.
JonathanEx
Member
D
Deleted member 231381
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And what's the problem with a single market, exactly? A single market is just a lack of tariffs. The only real problem that brings is when industries protected in one market end up being outcompeted by industries in another market, with the associated unemployment that brings. That is not a great problem for European countries - most European countries have relatively similar productivity on a global scale. It's not German steel manufacturing that put Tata Steel out of business.
I agree re: competition policies/labour policies. However... you have to ask "why did this happen?". And the main reason is "the United Kingdom pushed for it". France was always a great defender of protected markets from the dirigisme days, and Germany proved surprisingly unwilling to throw its weight around in the early days of the EU (or perhaps not so surprisingly). It was the United Kingdom that pushed all of these things through, and to the extent they're not worse than they are, it's because we were limited. Have you seen what the Conservatives want to do to employment policies? union negotiating positions? and they were limited in much of what they could do by the existence of Europe.
Yes, the EU isn't some sort of communal socialist paradise; that's obvious enough. But that's not the question you need to ask yourself. The question you need to ask yourself is "given all of the people and their current opinions and desires, given all of the situations going on in the world, which of these two options gets me to a world that's a little bit better?". It's very, very difficult to make the argument that the answer to that was "Leaving the EU". When you're rejecting the EU for being middling instead of perfect when the alternative is shite, you done fuck up.
Sorry, but you have not one single fact backing up you hypothesis. Not one.
Fact: UK plans to use people as bargaining chips, practically going down to the level of hostage takers/terrorists.
Fact: not one EU country official has said anything about UK citizens living there and even more so a lot of people offered UK nationals support after Brexit.
more or less ugly than going through with it?
The people that voted to leave because they feel Europe tells us what to do - won't get what they want because Europe doesn't tell us what to do other than in areas that protect the very people that likely voted against it
The people that voted to leave because they want less immigration - probably won't get less immigration if we actually want a free trade agreement with the EU.
The people that voted to leave because they felt disenfranchised from politics generally - will still be disenfranchised as Westminster will ignore them anyway just like it always has - the EU is just a handy scapegoat.
CyclopsRock
Member
JonathanEx
Member
delete your account
He's not though, is he? Wouldn't be surprised to see him rejoin Murdoch's Tories if Gove can win.
accel
Member
I said already what's backing my case: the hard stance of the EU and their determination to make it as painful as possible for the UK in areas where the EU has leverage.
I said more than once that in reality both these things are just starting negotiation positions.
And to be absolutely, perfectly clear, I am *against* throwing people out. If the talks come to a standstill, I'd accept throwing this question off the table even if the UK takes a 'free' hit in other areas.
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