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[sohois]

That's understandable, but please note that when, for example, May talked about the status of EU nationals in the UK, she paired that with the status of UK nationals in the EU. In truth, it's both sides who are going to use that as a bargaining chip, it's just that on the side of the UK that bargaining chip seems to be bigger, and that's why we hear about it from the UK. If the balance was on the side of the EU, we'd have heard about it from the EU.


I disagree. I believe there is a way to do a deal with the EU and get rid of free movement (of people). There *are* deals with other nations just waiting to be made, I refer you to Canada and New Zealand. Etc.

Again, it's a crisis, yes. It's not rosy. But the reasons to vote Leave (at least the ones I based my opinion on) didn't change one bit.

I don't know if you just happen to have unusually high priors, but I'm not sure how you can actually believe that based on the evidence we have received. On both subjects, near enough every piece of evidence regarding them has suggested that this will not be the case. People from Leave, from Remain, from Europe have all come out to say that free movement will have to stay. On trade deals, countries have said they aren't interested, experts have said it would take years to work anything out.

By every metric, your probability for these occurring should have been driven way down, so I can only presume your prior probabilities were way too high and not calibrated with reality for you to still believe this

 

[Tommy DJ]

The difference is that Farage cashed out when he was winning. He's got exactly what he wanted and there's not much else for him to do, considering he's never going to land himself a cabinet seat any time soon.

Boris chose to double down his whole bank account on 20 then went bust.

 

[Joni]

I see where you are coming from but I have a tough time seeing the EU using UK citizens as bargaining chip.

Indeed, the European countries are doing very much best their best to turn these people into citizens.

 

[RedShift]

On phone so can't post a link but Douglas Carswell just tweeted a single emoji: 😎

I love how much they both hate each other.

 

[CTLance]

Ok, the news of Farage running away made me guffaw in real life.

WHAT THE FUCK, UK

This transcends comedy. There is only so much black humour I can take.

 

[Bold One]

Lies, lies and more lies,

then Boris quits and Farage fucks off.


imagine if you voted to leave, you must be feeling like a right fucking mug.

 

[KingSnake]

more or less ugly than going through with it?

The people that voted to leave because they feel Europe tells us what to do - won't get what they want because Europe doesn't tell us what to do other than in areas that protect the very people that likely voted against it

The people that voted to leave because they want less immigration - probably won't get less immigration if we actually want a free trade agreement with the EU.

The people that voted to leave because they felt disenfranchised from politics generally - will still be disenfranchised as Westminster will ignore them anyway just like it always has - the EU is just a handy scapegoat.

They also don't believe in anybody telling them this, so they will see ignoring the referendum as a tentative to silence them. Which in my opinion can lead to UKIP getting more power and/or even violent extremism.

 

[1.21Gigawatts]

Really good video

https://youtu.be/WcXf1Fz5Fw4

I partially agree, but its not "stay as we are vs. uncertainty" but "stay as we are vs. make things even worse".
I also think that politicians and the media are partially to blame for failing to inform the voters properly, but there is some responsibility on the voters part. Everyone has all the means one needs to inform themselfs, but people rather gave in to populist demagoges.

 

[The Friendly Monster]

I said already what's backing my case: the hard stance of the EU and their determination to make it as painful as possible for the UK in areas where the EU has leverage.

I said more than once that in reality both these things are just starting negotiation positions.

And to be absolutely, perfectly clear, I am *against* throwing people out. If the talks come to a standstill, I'd accept throwing this question off the table even if the UK takes a 'free' hit in other areas.

And like clockwork here comes the narrative of EU being vindictive towards the UK. You can see it being set up in Boris' piece too. Just pathetic.

Don't you dare equate the potential forced relocation of legal immigrants to changes in tariffs etc.

Playing the victim when this crisis is entirely of the UK's own doing really beggars belief.

 

[KarneeKarnay]

Ok, the news of Farage running away made me guffaw in real life.

WHAT THE FUCK, UK

This transcends comedy. There is only so much black humour I can take.

I hear that. I want someone to make a play out of this. Call it the UK REF!

A musical number.

We'll sell out by the end of the week. XD

 

[oti]

You guys should use the momentum and push for a #NOBREXIT as hard as you can.

 

[FlammableD]

Lies, lies and more lies,

then Boris quits and Farage fucks off.


imagine if you voted to leave, you must be feeling like a right fucking mug.

Don't count on it

 

[KingSnake]

I said already what's backing my case: the hard stance of the EU and their determination to make it as painful as possible for the UK in areas where the EU has leverage.

The "hard stance" of EU is actually the standard offer for a trade deal. Norway or Turkey kind of deal depending on UK accepting or not the free movement.

 

[Maledict]

Indeed, the European countries are doing very much best their best to turn these people into citizens.

That's because to do otherwise is insane. Apart from Spain, these migrants are economic migrants who have moved countries for jobs. No country turfs out working age people who contribute substantially to the tax base. The very fact the UK is discussing it shows how inept and ludicrous we are right now / after cutting off a hand to leave the EU, we're proposing removing a leg as well!

 

[Kabouter]

Ok, the news of Farage running away made me guffaw in real life.

WHAT THE FUCK, UK

This transcends comedy. There is only so much black humour I can take.

I mean, would you want to be responsible for cleaning up this mess?

 

[accel]

The "hard stance" of EU is actually the standard offer for a trade deal. Norway or Turkey kind of deal depending on UK accepting or not the free movement.

I agree that it's all - including the hard stance - is standard, and I said as much every post.

 

[SuperSah]

I mean, would you want to be responsible for cleaning up this mess?

If you make the bed, you should lie on said bed.

 

[Zelias]

Lies, lies and more lies,

then Boris quits and Farage fucks off.


imagine if you voted to leave, you must be feeling like a right fucking mug.

Nah, a lot of them feel they've won. It won't be until the consequences start affecting them that they might change their minds, and even then they'll probably still blame the EU and immigrants.

 

[mrklaw]

Don't count on it

smooth comment - simultaneously pointing out how not all brexiteers are facists, yet anyone that comments negatively is a bigot.

 

[oti]

That's because to do otherwise is insane. Apart from Spain, these migrants are economic migrants who have moved countries for jobs. No country turfs out working age people who contribute substantially to the tax base. The very fact the UK is discussing it shows how inept and ludicrous we are right now / after cutting off a hand to leave the EU, we're proposing removing a leg as well!

It was one dude (so far, openly at least) and he was immediately criticized for it. Not every British politician is insane.

 

[hodgy100]

the figureheads stepping down like this is good tbh. it add more to the claim of the whole thing being built on bullshit

 

[Maledict]

On a side note Emma Reynolds from labour, not a Corbyn supporter, has said that labour won't fight to stay in the EU. God damn them and their sheer cowardice.

 

[mrklaw]

If you make the bed, you should lie on said bed.

 

[KarneeKarnay]

I mean, would you want to be responsible for cleaning up this mess?

Tragedy of the whole situations. The bastards who caused this are going to get away with it, but the hardworking ones who only want the best are the ones who are going to be screwed by this.

Perhaps we are looking at this the wrong way. Maybe we need to pull a Lenin.

Oi! EU. GIVE US ALL YER MONEY! OR....WE SEND THE BORRIS AND THE FARRAGE. U WOT M8! I SWEAR ON ME MUM!

 

[Deleted member 231381]

On a side note Emma Reynolds from labour, not a Corbyn supporter, has said that labour won't fight to stay in the EU. God damn them and their sheer cowardice.

Something like ~85% of Labour MPs are in pro-Leave seats; it's not entirely surprising.

 

[Joni]

It was one dude (so far, openly at least) and he was immediately criticized for it. Not every British politician is insane.

Yes, but Cameron quit, Sturgeon is only representing Scotland and Tim Farron won't get elected.

 

[mrklaw]

On a side note Emma Reynolds from labour, not a Corbyn supporter, has said that labour won't fight to stay in the EU. God damn them and their sheer cowardice.

Well a lot of the people that voted leave are potentially labour targets for votes in any general election - working class, disenfranchised etc.

The proper thing to do would be to energise them, engage them in debate, understand their concerns and address them while explaining this is the fault of the Tories not the EU.

The easy thing to do is stick your head in the sand and hope nobody notices you're supposed to be a major political party.

 

[Pyramid head]

I'm also of the opinion that a backtracking on the referendum result could turn very ugly. And not only in UK, but also will be blamed again for a decision that is practically local.

I believe that consequences of backtracking on this are greatly overestimated. There really isn't any outcome under which the leave brigade are getting any of the would-be spoils from their pyrrhic victory, so they'll be pissed for a little while no matter what anyway. And that amount of time will be about 5 minutes as shown by how quickly they forgave and forgot the 350 million promise.

 

[1.21Gigawatts]

Does Farage have his own Youtube channel by chance? This whole thing appears like a prank

 

[CTLance]

I mean, would you want to be responsible for cleaning up this mess?

True dat.

I swear, the term "British politics" will automatically trigger circus clown music in my head if this goes on for much longer. This will break me. You're breaking me, UK. Why are you doing this to me.

 

[accel]

Well a lot of the people that voted leave are potentially labour targets for votes in any general election - working class, disenfranchised etc.

The proper thing to do would be to energise them, engage them in debate, understand their concerns and address them while explaining this is the fault of the Tories not the EU.

The easy thing to do is stick your head in the sand and hope nobody notices you're supposed to be a major political party.

You'd have a hard time addressing the concerns by explaining that it's all the fault of the Tories. Try addressing the proverbial freedom of people that way, since this seems to be the central question of the last few pages.

 

[KingSnake]

I wonder if Farage quitting is not a strategy to clean up UKIP for its role as the party to represent Leave, seeing how Tories have a total lack of balls in regards to Article 50. I wonder if we will see some Torries shifting to UKIP if it gets "cleaner". Or maybe picking up the pieces from both Tories and Labour.

 

[Frankfurter]

So Farage resigns... what kind of shit show is this :/

 

[shinra-bansho]

There are plenty of trade deals waiting to be made* ** *** † ‡ §

* upon final exit from the EU.
** with borrowed negotiators.
*** after further years of negotiation.
† using borrowed negotiators, from target deal countries.
‡ with countries the UK does much less trade with.
§ in sectors the UK doesn't even have particularly strong comparative advantage in anyway.

 

[blu]

Ok, the news of Farage running away made me guffaw in real life.

WHAT THE FUCK, UK

This transcends comedy. There is only so much black humour I can take.

Some exquisite, truly expensive clownade that is, though.

 

[klonere]

Now I really want to die

Fuckkkkkkk

 

[FlammableD]

Well a lot of the people that voted leave are potentially labour targets for votes in any general election - working class, disenfranchised etc.

The proper thing to do would be to energise them, engage them in debate, understand their concerns and address them while explaining this is the fault of the Tories not the EU.

The easy thing to do is stick your head in the sand and hope nobody notices you're supposed to be a major political party.

i honestly

don't think

that will work

 

[accel]

I believe that consequences of backtracking on this are greatly overestimated. There really isn't any outcome under which the leave brigade are getting any of the would-be spoils from their pyrrhic victory, so they'll be pissed for a little while no matter what anyway. And that amount of time will be about 5 minutes as shown by how quickly they forgave and forgot the 350 million promise.

Or maybe everyone forgave and forgot the 350 million promise (= all of that to NHS) because it wasn't that big of a deal and not many people voted based on it. I'll tell you what I thought of that number - I thought it was an exaggeration in order to make a point and that there were *some* money to be recovered, but perhaps less and perhaps it was more complex than just immediately getting 350 million a week and putting it to wherever the UK wants. Now, is there money to be recovered if the UK get out of the EU? Yes, I believe so. How much is it? We'll have to see. But either way, that it's more complex than simply immediately getting 350 million per week is not a surprise at all.

 

[Makareu]

The difference is that Farage cashed out when he was winning. He's got exactly what he wanted and there's not much else for him to do, considering he's never going to land himself a cabinet seat any time soon.

Except that the UK leaving the UE has yet to happen. He is not cashing out, he is jumping ship (probably with a position already ligned up within a populist organisation) before all the shit flying toward the Brexit camp hit him.

 

[kmag]

There are plenty of trade deals waiting to be made* ** *** † ‡ §

* upon final exit from the EU.
** with borrowed negotiators.
*** after further years of negotiation.
† using borrowed negotiators, from target deal countries.
‡ with countries the UK does much less trade with.
§ in sectors the UK doesn't even have particularly strong comparative advantage in anyway.

TAKE BACK CONTROL

 

[Maledict]

Well a lot of the people that voted leave are potentially labour targets for votes in any general election - working class, disenfranchised etc.

The proper thing to do would be to energise them, engage them in debate, understand their concerns and address them while explaining this is the fault of the Tories not the EU.

The easy thing to do is stick your head in the sand and hope nobody notices you're supposed to be a major political party.

It feels like the UK is going through the same transition America did 20 years ago, with our left wing party stuck chasing votes that don't match their aspirations and ideals anymore and are lost to the right. Unfortunately we can't do what the Democrats did and forge a new coalition, because the minority vote in the Uk is too small to make up for it. In 20 years time it would have been, but now obviously that's unlikely to happen anyway.

The party is stuck chasing votes that are now intrinsically lost to it - it's as if half the country doesn't matter anymore.

 

[TatteredHat]

Does Farage have his own Youtube channel by chance? This whole thing appears like a prank

PRANKING MY POPULACE GONE WRONG! MUST WATCH!

 

[kmag]

How things would have been so different if he'd just landed an inch to the right

 

[Pyramid head]

Or maybe everyone forgave and forgot the 350 million promise (= all of that to NHS) because it wasn't that big of a deal and not many people voted based on it. I'll tell you what I thought of that number - I thought it was an exaggeration in order to make a point and that there were *some* money to be recovered, but perhaps less and perhaps it was more complex than just immediately getting 350 million a day and putting it to wherever the UK wants.

Well the others will be disappointed when it's sinks in that they're not getting rid of all the immigrants either.

 

[Bold One]

Or maybe everyone forgave and forgot the 350 million promise (= all of that to NHS) because it wasn't that big of a deal and not many people voted based on it. I'll tell you what I thought of that number - I thought it was an exaggeration in order to make a point and that there were *some* money to be recovered, but perhaps less and perhaps it was more complex than just immediately getting 350 million a day and putting it to wherever the UK wants. Now, is there money to be recovered if the UK get out of the EU? Yes, I believe so. How much is it? We'll have to see. But either way, that it's more complex than simply immediately getting 350 mil per day is not a surprise at all.

Do you really believe the crap you type?

serious question

the NHS promise and immigration were cornerstones of the Leave campaign and the reason they achieved victory

 

[Hasney]

Well the others will be disappointed when it's sinks in that they're not getting rid of all the immigrants either.

 

[accel]

There are plenty of trade deals waiting to be made* ** *** † ‡ §

* upon final exit from the EU.
** with borrowed negotiators.
*** after further years of negotiation.
† using borrowed negotiators, from target deal countries.
‡ with countries the UK does much less trade with.
§ in sectors the UK doesn't even have particularly strong comparative advantage in anyway.

I agree with *, **, ***, but not with the rest. All of †, ‡, § are just *** aka "things take time".

Do you really believe the crap you type?

serious question

the NHS promise and immigration were cornerstones of the Leave campaign and the reason they achieved victory

Immigration, yes, the figure of 350 million per week to NHS, no. The prospect of more money to NHS in general, perhaps, yes.

 

[cormack12]

The problem with a referendum is that it is only a snapshot of opinion on that particular day, for that particular turnout. You can already see there's been a massive change in mood and opinion since the result, with each passing day intensifying. If you do act on a referendum then it has to be almost right away otherwise it loses its legitimacy.

I know people who chose to abstain from voting because they felt like they didn't know enough. Which in my mind is fair enough - why didn't more people do the same? It's because they were whipped into a frenzy by Farage and Johnson, on the back of idealistic nonsense. Two independent leave campaigns with different core values united very different political votes. And now they've both gone, the promises are shown to be lies.

A country of this scale with a very distinct service based economy leaving the EU is unprecedented. It's clear from all sides that no-one really knows how this is going to work. You can't use a referendum from a year ago or other such time period to then act on. It just doesn't make sense.

I hope the EU stands firm on everything.

 

[Funky Papa]

Theresa May refuses to rule out deportation of EU nationals living in UK amid fears of ‘influx’ of migrants

A source close to Ms May told The Independent: “She [Ms May] was saying it’s unwise to promise right now that all EU nationals living in Britain should be able to stay indefinitely. The reason for that is if we did that the same rights would have to apply to any EU national who comes to Britain before we leave the EU.

To play her cards right, Theresa May should keep Boris Johnson
“If we made that promise you could just see a huge influx…of EU nationals who would all want to come here while they have that chance.”

The source also made clear that the issue was a “negotiating point”. They added: “It would just be a bad negotiating position because we shouldn’t guarantee the rights of EU nationals without having any guarantees the other way about British nationals living in EU member states."

Having second thoughts about making a new thread since we are talking about Independent's sources (although May has already implied as much).

 

[Khoryos]

I agree with *, **, ***, but not with the rest. All of †, ‡, § are just *** aka "things take time".



Immigration, yes, the figure of 350 million per day, no.

Not so much "Things take time" as "These people have no incentive to get us good deals, and often quite the reverse"