Here is another thing. The exceptional fantasy of informal negotiations before a50 has been junked. After a50 the clock starts ticking and after two years the UK gets kicked out into nothing but WTO treaties. The EU just has to wait a bit... The UK has absolutely no leverage at all.
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The UK votes to leave the European Union
- Thread starter Spring Drive
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Cameron reiterated that it won't be him triggering article 50. It will leave that grenade to the next PM. So UK has a few more months.
Tell me more of our size. What will we boast.
Bobnob
Member
Don't feel sorry for me pal,it's quite widespread,I think you will probably feel it more.
GamerMax73
Member
I don't know, FPTP is what could let it happen. With Labour and Lib Dems destroyed there's an opening for UKIP. And now they can be more than the AntiEU party because that issue has been resolved in their favour. If anything they might be more electable than ever.
London is gonna suffer big time.
In the 1970s, when Quebec first started making rumblings about separation, there was a huge movement of financial institutions and corporate headquarters from Montreal to Toronto. And that was just from threats of separation.
Up until then, Montreal had been by far the most important and influential city in Canada. Montreal never recovered from that exodus, and while they're doing OK, they're now vastly overshadowed by Toronto.
I'm sorry you're facing hardship. You fall into the 4m insecure employment category.
Zero hour contracts should be banned. Let's hope it will be banned over here like many countries overseas. Especially before the EU does so. So Leave voters don't get punched in the stomach even more so.
Bobnob
Member
I don't vote Tory lol
TBF the last couple of days have been informal negotiations...people are laying out their positions on the table, they just aren't in the same room.
You will see positions change ever so slightly in press conferences as time goes on...that's how you have "informal negotiations"
The UK's position is the only one that's going to change
Once Article 50 is invoked, it has no provisions for take-backsies. UK can only return to the EU through Article 49.
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Lol that made me laugh.
Transformers aside, you are right, the EU wouldn't want to hurt the economy any more than needed, money still flows both ways, so to stop that would hurt them too.
Maybe there should be things put in place where they can fine MP's money for causing such a mess, Cameron and the government should be made to pay in some way, not just cause a mess, quit and walk away with no consequences.
I didn't mean to sound condescending. I fucking despise the concept of zero hours contracts, it's open warfare on the working class.
shinra-bansho
Member
Huge hands. Enormous hands. Do these look like small hands? Go ahead, measure them.
We actually do. We have a huge lobby in London. We're probably going to bribe the EU in ways smaller economies can't.
Rubbish King
The gift that keeps on giving
Yup. The reason we are in this mess is because the high and mighty brandished words like racist and xenophobic and then smeared political correctness in slightly less well-educated peoples face. It's not their fault that the educational system failed them. Working as barman I once called a bloke racist after he called Sikhs, Muslims, and Hindus all the same and that they were all terrorists. He exploded in a fit of rage, he said things like if a dog gives birth in a stable is the baby a horse or a pup? He went so far as to say he would slit every one of the so-and-so bastard throats if it meant our children will grow up without fear of being blown up. He ended his rant with "but I'm no racist"
It blows my mind that people like this exist but the man was in ex-forces and overall if it wasn't for this unintelligible bigotry I'd say he was a nice guy. But he was not born with this attitude and he cannot be blamed for it being ingrained in him.
While it is true, the amount of unemployed people is measured by the amount of people claiming JSA.
This doesn't account for people on ZHCs or are self employed and haven't got two pennies to rub together. Since they are off the JSA books, also sanctioned JSA claimants don't count as unemployed.
I get the impression it will take a relatively long time until 50 gets activated ... if ever
of course, it's only been a couple days, but it looks like you Brits (both the government and many of the Leave voters) are having second thoughts about this
just pure speculation, but I think you might not go through with it this year
of course, it's only been a couple days, but it looks like you Brits (both the government and many of the Leave voters) are having second thoughts about this
just pure speculation, but I think you might not go through with it this year
jufonuk
not tag worthy
Yes but the EU throwing us to the wolves sends the wrong message that all the leave voters and other dissenting voices across the EU area have been up in arms about .
They will create stability and an exit strategy will be mapped out. Then it is up to us to push the button .
Maybe we end up in a state of stable waiting to leave limbo. The exit never happens or we have a deal that allows us to exit into another model while keeping EU trading movement etc.
jellies_two
Member
It is illuminating to consider for a second that the result was made up of votes. Are you saying the our American cousins are smaller minded than the average Brit? Because to an American, going across the border to Mexico or even Canada is pretty similar to most Brits going to Paris or Poland. Foreign language: check, different food: check, different incomes: check. Different holidays, working hours, companies and paperwork. It isn't like going from Maine to New York State.
Now consider that trump had apprently impressed half of the country by saying he wants to build a giant wall, and Clinton impresses the rest by promising to keep funding border control, and not let foreigners in that are not approved under narrow visas attached to guaranteed jobs, and fully vetted by the FBI.
So I don't particularly find 50% of Brit voters any more embarassingly small minded or racist than any other country, under a similar situation. Many of the people here, outside the uk, saying what on earth has Britain done? are living in a country that is doing or would do exactly the same thing and probably with a greater majority too.
Saying well you shouldn't think that way because it's economically damaging raises the question of at what point did they get to vote on going down that particular one way street.
It's a failure of communication. A failure of participation. And past decisions made by those who benefit most, or are most comfortable with a super-state, and applied to everyone. All coming home to roost. Of course since those people are mostly still in charge they still get to frame the debate that dodges any responsibility.
Why accept a bribe when you can take everything either way.
This time the EU and not the UK will be cherry picking
Man is responsible for himself, his behaviour, his attitude, his actions.
The mentally ill and children I would separate from this.
Look, there's never been a problem. Believe me.
We will make the best deals. The best.
BrainZEROX
Member
With that scenario, that means you're out of the EU decision process. You can have Mr Bean as PM, we won't care because we won't have to deal with his BS.
I don't disagree that the situations between US states and EU nations are completely different, but it was more apt than the comparison you were attempting to make. Canada or South America are not even close to being on the same scale as the EU in relation to the UK in regards to exports/imports/etc. If anything the comparison would be
US=EU
Canada/South America=UK
and the question would be whether Canada/South America would be willing to allow open borders in exchange for access to the US market, financial passports, etc.
US citizens know better than anyone the difficulties and challenges of harmonizing a culturally and ethnically diverse group of people. We struggle with it constantly in our inabilities to bring meaningful reform when said reform will no doubt infuriate some and please others. It's one of the main challenges we face in policy and one of the reasons why so little progress is made. That does not mean a complete dilution of the union would be beneficial.
The EU has had the Schengen agreement since 1990 and the UK opted out. Have you witnessed a drastic change in those thousand year old cultures since that happened? Have these countries lost what makes them unique? Shared language and culture are not pre-requisites for participation in this global economy, and if open borders is the number one argument against such globalization, then perhaps it's that countries political, economical and educational systems to blame for their shortcomings.
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Mr Bean would probably do a better job.
Here is the thing about London. There's going to be a perverse interest from some negotiators from the EU side to let London whither so Frankfurt and Paris can pick up the pieces.
ferrasvansen
Member
Mr Bean would be a great PM compared to these muppets we have, Boris Baffoon Johnson, Theresa ice queen May.. Jeremy dinosaur Corbyn... need I go on.
Unless we stay in the EU euro clearing is gone and so are several banks and large swathes of the shadow banking industry.
Ardenyal
Member
Not throwing UK to the wolves sends a message that countries can shop for benefits and deals. That's not good at all.
I'm sure that's on the minds of some of the people in the City too.
ferrasvansen
Member
Read an article earlier saying US banks were going to move soon rather than have the uncertainty. So it shouldn't be long till we hear concrete details and numbers.
Rubbish King
The gift that keeps on giving
How does one expect people to change with this attitude? Without initiatives to help people like this we will only get worse. Of course, you can argue that people like that will die out but these views get passed down generation to generation.
You can be as cold and as calculating as you like, but you're just as stubborn and as regressive as the people you wish to condemn.
I doubt any deal devoid of the free movement of labour will happen. It doesn't matter if people don't understand why richer countries can't shut out poorer countries. It's not reasonable to argue democracy > rational thinking economics.
Having said that, to the point you alluded to, the UK is a superpower, objectively, and it is cruel and can fuck over the EU, if it wants to. London alone could absolutely fuck up the Euro, and thus the Euro zone.
In light of a trading war we'd both suffer of course.
I've come to accept that this referendum isn't going away at all. It's going to be honoured and invoked. I know you all knew this, but I was hoping it'd be stopped somehow. It seems for once that democracy was a bad idea.
So, now I've accepted it I still hate and feel resentment to those who backed this on the stupid 'sovereignty, immigration, jobs, NHS' etc. etc. crap which all unraveled to be empty claims.
It sucks knowing this thing will happen, but what's done is done. It's time for me to stop moping about it and start to engage myself in the discussion. What I'd like now is Article 50 to be triggered as soon as possible but only when it's viable. I wanted it to never happen, but the turmoil we're in needs to be ironed out. I know it'll become worse once negotiations begin, but I agree with the EU in that the uncertainty isn't a good thing to have lingering over the nation and the economy.
I just hope this all pays off for the idiots who voted for absurd reasons.
So, now I've accepted it I still hate and feel resentment to those who backed this on the stupid 'sovereignty, immigration, jobs, NHS' etc. etc. crap which all unraveled to be empty claims.
It sucks knowing this thing will happen, but what's done is done. It's time for me to stop moping about it and start to engage myself in the discussion. What I'd like now is Article 50 to be triggered as soon as possible but only when it's viable. I wanted it to never happen, but the turmoil we're in needs to be ironed out. I know it'll become worse once negotiations begin, but I agree with the EU in that the uncertainty isn't a good thing to have lingering over the nation and the economy.
I just hope this all pays off for the idiots who voted for absurd reasons.
Citi and MS.
If you're right, good luck keeping the anti-establishment / UKIP / anti-immigration feelings in check.
Honestly that might end up being more scary than the alternative (article 50 being invoked).
PJV3
Member
Good.
A false sense of security is going to be very bad for everyone.
ferrasvansen
Member
Yep was a pretty worrying article, was talking about the sheer disbelief that the UK had done this to itself, was pretty sad reading and left me in no doubt what was coming our way.
BrainZEROX
Member
Well. Yes. And nobody wants to physically hurt Mr Bean.
...
Now that I think about it... Did you ever thought about the following deal. If you can grant each member of the EU Parliament 10 minutes of free "slap a Farage in the face", we might offer you a better deal. And free Mercedes. French wine. Airbuses too.
Regressive and stubborn? It's the law. He wants to slit my throat. I want him in jail for being a danger to the public.
Non-violent people I can work with.
So we're voting to Leave this thread too?
20k and you're out. Thems the rules.
ferrasvansen
Member
So we're voting to Leave this thread too?
I vote leave this time...
GamerMax73
Member
Sorry I don't really know how to comment on your post. Not sure I really understand the point that you're trying to make.
Just wanted to make clear that at no point have I tried to suggest that either Americans or 50% of the British electorate are small minded. Embarrassingly or otherwise.
What I said was equating closer political and economic union to loss of culture is small minded. I'd stand by that as a statement.
efyu_lemonardo
May I have a cookie?
REMAIN
I think you are highly overestimating the UKs power. First the UK hasn't been a super power for the last 80-100 years. The only real superpower there is is the US.
Secondly the UK might be able to damage the Euro but the EU would basically kill the UK as it exists right now. The UK is far smaller and more dependent on EU trading than the other way around. Who do you think china and the US will side with in a trade war. The one of the largest economic areas of the world or a UK crippled by it's dependency on the single market?
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