Things gamers used to say but reality proved wrong

This is half correct…
This is incorrect. Maybe you think that there were not that many MMOs in existence or maybe you're vastly underestimating the amount of "15 seconds of fame" flash in the pan MMOs that actually existed back then, most of them from NCSoft, Nexon, and Perfect World Entertainment amongst others.
It's correct
Most of those "15 seconds of fame" survived somehow, even though falling of completely off media space. Death rate for MMO vastly overstated.
NCSoft, Nexon and PW are all Korean/Chinese companies, the moment western world MMO rush died everyone forget about them. Doesn't mean their games, those focus their local market first and foremost, died. There were some failures but most survived. You know, prior to roughly 2020, all that "huge and fast growing Asian market" was 99% MMO, SP games still struggle there, but now MMO mutating into mobile gaas games those are essentially MMO light games.

The MMO graveyard is much, much, much larger than the games today that are currently on life support. It's worth a look if you haven't checked it out. I guarantee there will be tons of games you have never heard of.
I heard about all of high-profile and many medium profile MMO (and played a good chunk of them). MMO rush didn't really increased death rate that much. Nobody but FF14 managed to score a "big" success and many faced hardships those forced them to adjust monetization towards more f2p elements, but most went into niche things and successfully survived.
Western part of MMO rush produced high-profile MMO - TESO, LOTRO, SWTOR, AOC, DCUO, WHO, TR, WildStar, Neverwinter, GW2. Only 3 games died, rest are still alive and kicking.
You can check amount of green here, and you'll find surprising amount of games that are alive - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massively_multiplayer_online_role-playing_games
 
It's correct
Most of those "15 seconds of fame" survived somehow, even though falling of completely off media space. Death rate for MMO vastly overstated.
NCSoft, Nexon and PW are all Korean/Chinese companies, the moment western world MMO rush died everyone forget about them. Doesn't mean their games, those focus their local market first and foremost, died. There were some failures but most survived. You know, prior to roughly 2020, all that "huge and fast growing Asian market" was 99% MMO, SP games still struggle there, but now MMO mutating into mobile gaas games those are essentially MMO light games.


I heard about all of high-profile and many medium profile MMO (and played a good chunk of them). MMO rush didn't really increased death rate that much. Nobody but FF14 managed to score a "big" success and many faced hardships those forced them to adjust monetization towards more f2p elements, but most went into niche things and successfully survived.
Western part of MMO rush produced high-profile MMO - TESO, LOTRO, SWTOR, AOC, DCUO, WHO, TR, WildStar, Neverwinter, GW2. Only 3 games died, rest are still alive and kicking.
You can check amount of green here, and you'll find surprising amount of games that are alive - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massively_multiplayer_online_role-playing_games
Here is a 40 page list of MMOs that were cancelled pre-beta and post-beta


Next is the graveyard archive. Ignore the first result and keep scrolling (the website will refresh as it gives an "infinite scroll"):


Before MMOHut turned into an unsafe website they used to also have a comprehensive long list of dead MMOs. I would have linked that too but I can't now.

You keep listing the S tier, A tier, and B tier MMOs as your examples, but I am talking about the gigantic amount of C-tier and below that existed for a short time and then ceased to exist.

Again, these will be games most here will not even be aware of, maybe yourself included. Saying "Most survived" is like when people here say the entire gaming industry is dying mainly because western AAAs are on the backfoot. Things are much more vast than that.
 
You keep listing the S tier, A tier, and B tier MMOs as your examples, but I am talking about the gigantic amount of C-tier and below that existed for a short time and then ceased to exist.
Who fucking cares about them?
It's like concerning about 15,000-20,000 indies games that sent to rot into graveyard every year in Steam. C-tier is a tier for trash and death rate there is expectedly very high. It has nothing to do with genre or state of particular market - it's just trash is trash and it's die very often.
You can't judge the state like this, otherwise every part of gaming is doomed, because everywhere 99% of games (all tiers included) rotting in the graveyard being a completely failure.

Again, these will be games most here will not even be aware of, maybe yourself included.
You can't really make a statement "F2P MMOs were dying by the dozen during the 2010s because they were no longer the popular genre" based on trash that will die anyway in any genre and any time period.
To separate where it's just a matter of trash dying or impact from particular genre state of things you need to analyze a proper games where you can see statistical change in survivorship for better or worse and make analysis that situation becomes good or bad for genre. For this usually S and A tiers analyzed as they have normal high rate of survival and you can see dynamics. You can't use C tier where 99% games die anyway and be it 99.1% or 88.9% is more dependent on random fluctuations than to change in genre states.
Saying "Most survived" is like when people here say the entire gaming industry is dying mainly because western AAAs are on the backfoot. Things are much more vast than that.
You are trying to say this by including C-tier games and trying to paint that they are important and on par with S-tier. But because 99% of such games everywhere dies in oblivion, results would be that gaming is dying hard, and it's clearly not the case. In reality nobody care about C-tier except some rare runaway successes (that someone else should find and market to the crowd) and don't judge market health by their demise.
 
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Who fucking cares about them?
It's like concerning about 15,000-20,000 indies games that sent to rot into graveyard every year in Steam. C-tier is a tier for trash and death rate there is expectedly very high. It has nothing to do with genre or state of particular market - it's just trash is trash and it's die very often.
…That was a big part of the basis of my original post. Regarding the second half, "indie" isn't a genre, MMOs are. To use an example for indies, metroidvania has thousands of games in it's genre with possibly hundreds of releases per year. If that per year number suddenly massively shrinks, that could be one of the few signs of a dying genre.
You can't really make a statement "F2P MMOs were dying by the dozen during the 2010s because they were no longer the popular genre" based on trash that will die anyway in any genre and any time period.
To separate where it's just a matter of trash dying or impact from particular genre state of things you need to analyze a proper games where you can see statistical change in survivorship for better or worse and make analysis that situation becomes good or bad for genre. For this usually S and A tiers analyzed as they have normal high rate of survival and you can see dynamics. You can't use C tier where 99% games die anyway and be it 99.1% or 88.9% is more dependent on random fluctuations than to change in genre states.
Again, see the above. "Indie" is not a genre, MMO is.

You are trying to say this by including C-tier games and trying to paint that they are important and on par with S-tier. But because 99% of such games everywhere dies in oblivion, results would be that gaming is dying hard, and it's clearly not the case. In reality nobody care about C-tier except some rare runaway successes (that someone else should find and market to the crowd) and don't judge market health by their demise.
No, I was pointing out how the genre shrunk by an insane degree and suddenly, not only stopped being one of the most popular genres, but also a genre that those C-tier companies are scared to touch anymore, and it looks worse for this genre specifically because these games rely on online services and huge servers to exist. And if the C-tier companies are scared, how do you think the bigger guys are feeling about this?

As an MMO fan I have been looking at what's beyond the horizon and it looks shaky at best. Dune was a good release but half of that community doesn't want to give it the MMO label even though the game's own website does. There's a good reason why they don't 🤷‍♂️

Some other upcoming games have been changing their models to be more single player friendly. Blue Protocol crashed, burned, and had to be rescued. Wayfinder is now a game with optional online. Ragnarok X/M keeps having to relaunch itself as a 'new' app on gaming stores to trick players into returning. Those are just a few examples. The genre is being looked at as almost toxic and that's a big problem.

It looks like this conversation between us is due to a misunderstanding. Apologies if I confused or upset, but my point stayed consistent throughout. I missed almost 2 entire console generations for this one genre so I care about it quite a bit, and maybe I give too much attention to it than it's worth.
 
…That was a big part of the basis of my original post. Regarding the second half, "indie" isn't a genre, MMOs are. To use an example for indies, metroidvania has thousands of games in it's genre with possibly hundreds of releases per year. If that per year number suddenly massively shrinks, that could be one of the few signs of a dying genre.
Indies incorporate most genres. If the death rate for "all genres combined" is as high as MMO one - why do you pretend that gaming is healthy and MMO are not?

No, I was pointing out how the genre shrunk by an insane degree and suddenly, not only stopped being one of the most popular genres, but also a genre that those C-tier companies are scared to touch anymore, and it looks worse for this genre specifically because these games rely on online services and huge servers to exist. And if the C-tier companies are scared, how do you think the bigger guys are feeling about this?
Not really.
You provided "40 pages list of dead MMO" that proves really nothing - number of dead game in gaming in general far surpass it even in single year.
To actually analyze whether companies scared or not you need to analyze time series of number of games, alive and dead, and you need to add mobile games (that sites like mmorpg don't do fore some reason)

As an MMO fan I have been looking at what's beyond the horizon and it looks shaky at best. Dune was a good release but half of that community doesn't want to give it the MMO label even though the game's own website does. There's a good reason why they don't 🤷‍♂️
Because genre massively migrated to MMO lite as it's more convenient and less obnoxious and repetitive. Genre is evolving and it's a good thing. It was a huge step forward with WoW that abandoned MMO structure of old (EQ1, FF11) and now games moving more to SP/Coop/MP mix where everyone can play to their tastes.

Some other upcoming games have been changing their models to be more single player friendly. Blue Protocol crashed, burned, and had to be rescued. Wayfinder is now a game with optional online. Ragnarok X/M keeps having to relaunch itself as a 'new' app on gaming stores to trick players into returning. Those are just a few examples. The genre is being looked at as almost toxic and that's a big problem.
They do it since WoW launch. FF14 is already half-SP game. Some moving it even further.
Classic MMO as a genre considered a thing of the past and games, even though they use MMO elements heavily (ToF, 1st Descendant etc), don't even mention their link to MMO genre, they are just multiplayer action.

It looks like this conversation between us is due to a misunderstanding. Apologies if I confused or upset, but my point stayed consistent throughout. I missed almost 2 entire console generations for this one genre so I care about it quite a bit, and maybe I give too much attention to it than it's worth.
I care about it myself, but I don't see its death in any way, there were some slowdown after wow rush, but rise of mobile did push it back, especially in Asia.
And anyway - this all have nothing to do with original statement "the Free to Play model was unsustainable" - it was proven even in WoW times that it is sustainable and highly profitable. And has nothing to do with gambling btw - League of Legends is 2007 game that has none and that earned more that 1bn a year.
 
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