As noted earlier, even with this seasons drop-off, True Detective remains a very big show for HBO. Hate-watching or not, plenty of viewers came back to check out season two, and most stayed with it to the bitter end. But the ratings performance for this season has to be a disappointment for HBO executives. Premium cables most successful dramas in recent years Game of Thrones and True Blood on HBO, Homeland on Showtime, and Power on Starz have all shown significant ratings growth in their second seasons. At the dawn of TDS2, that pattern seemed ready to be repeated. Instead, True Detective followed the Nielsen trajectory of some of HBOs more recent drama disappointments, such as the ultimately short-lived The Newsroom and the moderately successful but never-breakout Boardwalk Empire. Given the crush of negative critical notices and poor online chatter, its hard not to conclude that TDS2 halted, and even reversed, momentum for a franchise that seemed poised to take off this year.
The silver lining for True Detective, of course, is that it is a series that can reset itself every cycle. The show isnt locked into characters, story lines, or even themes that might limit the possibility of a course correction. As with FXs American Horror Story and, potentially, Fargo, HBO has still established a powerful series brand that can cut through the clutter and, potentially, get viewers invested once more. Assuming HBO opts to keep that brand alive, the biggest mystery surrounding a potential True Detective season three is not who will be cast in the project, but what changes might take place behind the scenes.
Theres been absolutely no indication that anybody at HBO is even considering the idea, but a version of True Detective without series creator Nic Pizzolatto is most definitely within the realm of possibility. After all, the network green-lit season two without the involvement of original director Cary Fukunaga, and Fukunaga was as essential to season one as Pizzolatto. Bringing in a new writer to helm the show would underline the fact that True Detective is at heart an anthology series or a mini-series, no matter what category it competes in for the Emmys. In the same way The Best American
book anthology annually selects different editors to identify the best magazine or science-fiction writing, perhaps HBO could turn True Detective into a playground for writers and directors as well as actors. Agnieszka Holland or Gina Prince-Bythewoods True Detective could be pretty amazing. Or, if HBO wanted to keep some sort of constant associated with the show, why not get Fukunaga to return, and allow him to choose a new writing partner? To assuage any egos, the network might even announce a two-season commitment to True Detective, giving Fukunaga the reins for season three and Pizzolatto plenty of time to begin work on season four.
Whats more likely, however, is that HBO will take a more conventional path, and simply bring back both True Detective and Pizzolatto, hoping the writer learned some lessons from season two and makes enough changes to right his ship. This strategy carries significant risk, however. If the scribes third at-bat has similar issues, its hard to imagine ratings not declining even more significantly in season three: Viewers, burned by season two, simply wont be as patient. Worse, another bad season could actually tarnish HBOs brand as a network that consistently makes great TV. The network has had its share of misfires over the year, but few have started off with so much praise and ended up the subject of so much ridicule. If a third season of True Detective is seen as another creative failure, HBO will have a lot more to worry about than disappointing Nielsen numbers.