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Trump's debt limit deal with Dems likely to lead to DACA becoming law at end of year

C

Cerium

Member
Although we've had a thread on the shocking 3-month debt limit deal agreed to today, neither the title nor the OP really explains why this is a big deal. Given the enormous implications this could have for DACA and all its recipients I thought it would be worth making a thread with that particular focus.

Trump's Art of the Deal? Not so much

President Trump handed Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer the deal of the century this morning.

One top Republican described the move to me as the legislative equivalent of giving an entire stockpile of weapons to Democrats and inviting them to take the entire Republican Party hostage. Republicans are in a state of shock.

Sources inside and close to leadership have used the full range of expletives in text messages reacting to what Trump did this morning. I've yet to speak to a White House official who can convincingly explain Trump's logic.

Here's what Trump did:

  • He ignored the pleas of his own Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and of Republican leaders Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, and he sided with the Pelosi-Schumer plan to combine Hurricane Harvey relief funding with extending the debt limit and funding the government, both for three months. (GOP leaders wanted to extend the debt limit for 18 months.)
  • Republican leadership sources say Democrats were bluffing and would never follow through on their threat to oppose a longer-term debt ceiling increase.
Why this matters: Hurricane Harvey gave Republican leadership a rare opportunity to take the most controversial and politically toxic item — the debt ceiling — off the table for the rest of this Congress. Trump has blown up that opportunity.
  • When the debt ceiling and government funding bills expire in December, Democrats will have all the leverage, because Republicans can't pass a CR or debt ceiling without Democratic votes.
  • That will also force Republicans to support a funding bill that legalizes the protection of illegal immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children (the DACA program that Trump says he'll end in six months if Congress doesn't act.)
A top Republican close to leadership captures the prevailing sentiment on Capitol Hill today: "Dems bluffed their way into total victory."

DJDqIvCXcAAvQRX.jpg:large
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Democrats Take Cautious Victory Lap After Rolling Trump On Short-Term Debt Deal

Moments after news broke that President Donald Trump had abruptly sided with Democrats on a short-term debt ceiling increase, hurricane relief and a federal funding bill over the unanimous opposition of Republicans, a wave of cheers and applause emanated from the room on the second floor of the Capitol building where Senate Democrats were meeting over lunch.

When they emerged, however, Democrats were coy about what the burst of celebration was for.

”Oh, was there applause?" Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) said with a smile. ”Maybe they were clapping for somebody's birthday. Who knows?"

”We clap for a lot of things in our caucus," Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) deadpanned.

While playing down the political victory they had just scored—winning all of their demands from a Republican president—the Democrats acknowledged that the deal gives them leverage down the road to extract concessions from the Republican majority, such as protections for immigrants now at risk of losing their DACA protections.

”You bet," Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) responded when asked by TPM if the three-month timeline gives Democrats an upper hand in future negotiations over DACA. ”We're going to have the chance over the next few weeks to talk about how these young people really represent the best of America. This gives us a chance to make the case for good policy, and good policy is the best politics."
Click to expand...
Rank-and-file Republicans were more open about their displeasure.

”Patience is wearing thin on short-term funding of this government," Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) told reporters. ”It's just horrible. It's fiscal malpractice. It's just gotta end."

Though Tillis hesitated when asked if Democrats out-maneuvered Republicans on this deal, which could pass the Senate as early as Thursday, he grudgingly admitted: ”For people who want to keep score, maybe that's true."
Click to expand...

Trump's Early Christmas Gift to Democrats

With Trump's acquiescence to the Democrats' fiscal demands, their chances of winning a DACA fix have also improved. Schumer and Pelosi specifically wanted only a short-term increase in the debt ceiling because it gives Democrats additional leverage to demand concessions during the next round of spending fights in December, when Congress will be under pressure to make a big year-end agreement before lawmakers go home for the holidays. Republicans know they can't pass an increase in the debt ceiling without Democratic votes, and the more frequently they have to do it, the more bargaining power Pelosi and Schumer have.

”Both sides have every intention of avoiding default in December and look forward to working together on the many issues before us," the two Democrats said in a joint statement after the White House meeting. Then they hinted that a DACA fix was next on their list of priorities: ”As Democratic leaders, we also made it clear that we strongly believe the DREAM Act must come to the floor and pass as soon as possible and we will not rest until we get this done."
Click to expand...
In true Beltway fashion, Democrats crowed over an agreement that will bring only a few months of fiscal peace. ”This was a really positive step forward," Schumer said, hailing it as a victory for the nation. But its significance was more in its precedent than the substance: A frustrated president, bereft of legislative wins and desperate to make a deal, turned away from his party and into the unlikely arms of the opposition
Click to expand...

DJEB8SBVoAQxKsf.jpg
 
J

Joe

Member
Worst-case scenario is still a win: This will drop Trump's R-approval rating down another point or two.
 
W

Widdle Puppy

Banned
Trump is safe till 2020. He also hates this R congress. I have no idea what is going through his mind and I don't think it's worth trying to read his plays. He has no idea what he's doing and probably just liked the positive attention he was getting from Chuck. Okay, good...
 
J

JettDash

Junior Member
But I thought Chuck and Nancy suck.

Are you telling me thay left wing purity testers don't know what they are talking about?
 
D

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
If the democrats can get DACA passed without being blackmailed into funding the wall, that will be absolutely amazing.
 
S

Squire

Banned
Widdle Puppy said:
Trump is safe till 2020. He also hates this R congress. I have no idea what is going through his mind and I don't think it's worth trying to read his plays. He has no idea what he's doing and probably just liked the positive attention he was getting from Chuck. Okay, good...
Click to expand...

He's probably constantly wracked with thinking that it's actually increasingly unlikely he's safe until 2020, if he can even stay in office through 2018.
 
J

Jeels

Member
It's not a total win politically. The ads against Democrats write themselves. "The Democrats are putting illegals over funding the government. They are putting illegals over the American people"

Of course the people that this type of ad attracts wouldn't got Democrat anyway. But the messaging muddies the waters and that's all you need to win - see Trump.
 
W

Widdle Puppy

Banned
Squire said:
He's probably constantly wracked with thinking that it's actually increasingly unlikely he's safe until 2020, if he can even stay in office through 2018.
Click to expand...

Uh, in Trump's mind he probably thinks he will make it to 2024 bigly and be celebrated as on of the greatest presidents of all time.

Stumpokapow said:
Certainly Planned Parenthood, which is something the Republican base, Republican leadership, and Trump all agree on.
Click to expand...

Didn't he positively talk about PP during a debate and a few interviews? I definitely think it's possible Trump could be coaxed into supporting PP through a rider on some bill which makes him look good.
 
J

JettDash

Junior Member
Stumpokapow said:
Certainly Planned Parenthood, which is something the Republican base, Republican leadership, and Trump all agree on.
Click to expand...

Nope. Nancy and Chuck are not going to agree to that.

If DACA is passed they will give the Republicans nothing in return (or next to nothing).
 
K

KHarvey16

Member
Jeels said:
It's not a total win politically. The ads against Democrats write themselves. "The Democrats are putting illegals over funding the government. They are putting illegals over the American people"

Of course the people that this type of ad attracts wouldn't got Democrat anyway. But the messaging muddies the waters and that's all you need to win - see Trump.
Click to expand...

"Don't do anything good because they'll use it against us!"
 
U

Username1198

Member
Holy shit this is great. I went from thinking I'm gonna be booted by ICE to being able to stay.

Edit trump can still go fuck himself
 
K

kingofthedead45

Member
That's fine and dandy but there's still problems with daca to begin with. If it gets fix then bring it on.

For example my wife couldn't renew her daca because her country was no longer apart of listed countries for daca application. ( Venezuela)
 
D

Dark_AnNiaLatOr

Member
Username1198 said:
Holy shit this is great. I went from thinking I'm gonna be booted by ICE to being able to stay.
Click to expand...

It does seem like good news, but I feel like it's better to just assume the worst until you've actually got the documentation in your hand.

Man, if it happens, then I'm going to jump up and down and scream and shout. I'd probably feel like jumping out of an airplane with a parachute of course.
 
U

Username1198

Member
Dark_AnNiaLatOr said:
It does seem like good news, but I feel like it's better to just assume the worst until you've actually got the documentation in your hand.

Man, if it happens, then I'm going to jump up and down and scream and shout. I'd probably feel like jumping out of an airplane with a parachute of course.
Click to expand...

Haha I was just gonna say the same thing. I'm very cautiously optimistic, but this is great. I CANNOT wait until the day maybe I do become a real citizen and can vote.

At least I'm a little less stressed out. please be a path to citizenship!!
 
Z

Zophar

Member
Chmpocalypse said:
I'm truly baffled. Why did trump hand the Dems a win?
Click to expand...

Take your pick:

1) Trump is angry at GOP congressional leadership for not bending the knee, has repeatedly threatened to work with Democrats instead to give him a win
2) Trump makes decisions based on whoever he talked with last and Schumer/Pelosi have finally figured out how to game him
3) Trump is an incompetent statesman with no real ideological motives of his own
4) All of the above
 
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