It's quite difficult to disprove a prediction.
Not true. My prediction is based off current events and guessing what will happen if these trends continue. You can claim my prediction is wrong by showing evidence of different trends or that my reading of the trends is wrong.
Irrelevant. I was just making the point that your exact type of thinking and extreme overconfidence was their downfall last year...
No it wasn't. Trump won basically because of 25 years of smears and lies about Hillary Clinton making her much less popular then her competence while in office would imply. With the media happily pushing on a "Both sides are equally bad" narrative by focusing on the absurd non-stories of "but her emails" while Trump had some new awful thing revealed about him every week. This lead to depressed turn out on the Democratic Side and Trump's blatant racism and populist lies (Remember that he said he's
raise taxes on the rich?) inspired turnout on the Republican side.
...
Pretty sure we'll still have the electoral college 3 years from now...
It won't help Trump this time.
First off, Trump's EC victory was already super narrow. He won by 56.88% of the EC vote. This is the 13th
lowest margin of victory of any president.
Also the states that brought about his EC victory were barely won. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are generally considered the states that brought about Trump's victory and all three were won by super narrow margins. He won them by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percent respectively.
There
will be a Democratic Wave in 2018 and 2020. We've seen the special elections in previously secure Republican parts of the country become narrow victories or outright losses. And most majorly the massive slaughter of state level Republicans in Virginia and the impossible to predict victory of Doug Jones' Senate Campaign in
Alabama. There's no reason to assume these trends won't continue as long as Trump is in office.
Those narrow victories won't happen next time.
...
Well he's the president now so he's already the Republican primary...
Technically not true. The primary will still happen and if somebody wants to they can challenge Trump in the primary.
Granted, no incumbent president has ever lost a primary. And I agree that it's very unlikely to happen even to Trump, but it's
possible.
...
What exactly is stopping history from repeating itself here?
Because the environment is very different.
Like I said earlier, turn out is what drives elections. For a multitude of reasons Hillary Clinton was not inspiring. The media was all in on a Both Sides narrative, and the bulk of her campaign was pointing at Trump saying "He's going to terrible! Don't let him in!"
This does not actually prove to be very inspiring. On the other hand, "He
is terrible! Kick him out!" has proven in the past to be quite a strong drive to turn out. Anger is a great source of electoral turn out. Trump inspired angry racists to go to the polls, and now Trump's been getting
everybody else nice and angry.
And the Republicans in Congress has been helping with that anger, what all the wildly unpopular bills they've been writing up.
forcing in that hag that nobody liked...
Aww, and you were doing so well. But then you had to use some misogynistic rhetoric.
More people liked Hillary Clinton than Trump, remember that.