Taur007
Member
You mean the one that launched when "all" Xbox console had disc drives?
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UK Boxed Charts (Oct. 14, 2023) | Lords of the Fallen debuts at No.4; Forza Motorsport fails to reach top 20.
- Thread starter Heisenberg007
- Start date
Unknown?
Member
How do you explain other big games doing well on boxed charts though, including other Forza games? Boxed and digital usually follow the same trends. Has there been a game that does horribly in boxed charts but #1 in digital? I don't really know.TLDR is in bold
Firstly I agree that Forza has not done great, is full of bugs and has not released to a great reception from fans and critics alike so this isn't a post to try and say that Forza has done better than it has, it is more of a post arguing how much weight these boxed charts really carry in the grand scheme of things. <1% relevance...
Boxed charts aren't the most accurate metric.
MS have been pushing people to buy digital for a long time and if that was a success then you would naturally see boxed sales on Xbox drop through the floor. I am not trying to play defence force here just putting across a point of view that is more representative of my own circumstances. My own personal gaming purchase habits would never register on these boxed game charts and judging by the responses in the below thread...
What's your plan if/when both Microsoft and Sony ditch physical games entirely next gen?
Will you be quitting gaming entirely, jump to Nintendo or PC (if you haven't), or just give up and switch to full digital on Xbox or Playstation?www.neogaf.com
It seems that my own habits are not too far away from the average these days. Microsoft were certainly the first console maker to start the push towards digital only and they have also shown the most commitment to making their customers digital back catalogue available on current and future consoles (as well as PC) so it stands to reason that their customers would skew the sales heavily away from boxed whereas both Sony and Nintendo have not given off signals that have been anywhere near as convincing. There is a reason that Playstation store gift cards are so popular (people don't trust Sony with their credit card details), Sony also charged for upgrades from PS4 to PS5 games and are more happy to remaster games than continue supporting them across generations. Nintendo are even worse, forcing people to buy the exact same game time after time on the latest console, dropping support completely for previous generations as soon as possible. More people buy boxed for PS and Nintendo than Xbox.
On the other side of the coin, both Sony and Nintendo have a much larger userbase so you would expect them to have a bigger impact on the sales of a game and when a game is exclusive to Xbox (taking PC out of this as no one buys boxed PC games anyway) it will naturally have a much smaller chance of getting into the charts than an exclusive on the other two systems. Third party games always do better than exclusives anyway and that does show in the charts.
So, Xbox has a much smaller userbase but also that userbase is (not factually as far as i can make out but more than likely) more inclined to buy digitally as well. We don't really know the majority of the factual information needed to fully analyse it as we don't know the split in sales between physical and digital for any of the 3 consoles and we don't get the sales figures from the digital stores either. We don't know the Gamepass numbers, we don't know how many Gamepass subscribers played Forza and we don't know how many of them bought the game or upgraded to the premium edition. But, we can look at data available for other titles.
We can look at Minecraft in the boxed charts. It is the Switch version that remains fairly consistently in the boxed charts even though it was released on Switch 6 years ago. The Switch is not the most popular platform for the game with mobile being easily the biggest platform for it. Minecraft has sold 5 million copies on Switch as of October 2022 (Wikipedia) and has sold more on Switch that both Xbox and Playstation yet, total sales of Minecraft are over 300 million (Minecraft Live 2023). So that means the console that has shifted the most copies of Minecraft still only accounts 1.7% of the total sales. Add to that the boxed sales will only be a fraction of this 1.7% as well (at most 50%). You really only get boxed games for consoles so all in all, boxed sales are nearly irrelevant as a metric for how popular Minecraft is.
If anything I would argue the point that Sony and Nintendo gamers are the most reluctant to move to digital purchases and boxed charts are the biggest proof of this.
Taur007
Member
I'm sure the 20% of series x owners who actually have a disc drive bought the game already while the rest buy digital or play via GP calm down
Flutta
Banned
And who’s fault is that that ”all” Xbox consoles don’t have disc drives?
Mownoc
Member
Wow. So suddenly the Series S is 80% of Xbox Series hardware sales. Massive!
This is stupid because mobile sales aren't included in these sales and Forza Motorsport isn't on mobile. So what pecentage is Switch Mincraft excluding mobile? Then you will see how relevant these sales charts are to Forza Motorsport with that analogy.
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Mr.Phoenix
Member
What's scary is that that was supposed to be their magnum opus. Now I guess they are going to hedge their bets on COD. And that is not even exclusive.
Duchess
Member
Hard to tell if you're being sarcastic, but for the record, those leaked Microsoft documents revealed the true number to be 75%.
HeWhoWalks
Gold Member
Always comical when people don't check what they post and walk right into a trap!
Besides, does he really think that Microsoft, the industry's show boater, wouldn't be screaming from every mountain top they could if Starfield was some barreling success? Come on now.
Mr Moose
Member
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Akuji
Member
potentially 10 million sales. 50 $ a piece of profit for ms.
500 million. gone. thanks to gamepass. same with starfield.
redfall wouldnt have sold that much, but people wouldve bought a "big" microsoft game even if it sucked as hard as redfall did.
not sure how they can look at this and say it is fine. but maybe they prioritize subscription model established just way higher then i do in my head.
hopefully it turns out well in the end for them. Want competition in the space.
500 million. gone. thanks to gamepass. same with starfield.
redfall wouldnt have sold that much, but people wouldve bought a "big" microsoft game even if it sucked as hard as redfall did.
not sure how they can look at this and say it is fine. but maybe they prioritize subscription model established just way higher then i do in my head.
hopefully it turns out well in the end for them. Want competition in the space.
Duchess
Member
Fine, fine. Let's just say it's now 77.5%.
CeeJay
Member
if you read my post it's not about Forza its about how irrelevant boxed charts are. Forza did do badly, i explained that on my first line! So you want me to explain why Forza did badly when I said it did badly? OK...
Bumblebeetuna
Member
When did they say this? Genuinely curious, I don’t remember.
Anyway, boxed UK sales of a GamePass title
Mownoc
Member
That was shipments in April 2022 alone. When the Series X was massively stock constrained. Famitsu estimates in Japan put the Series S at 55% LTD. We don't have substantial data but rest assured it is no where near 80% lifetime.
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ChorizoPicozo
Member
The next financial report better be mighty impressive for Xbox hardware or else the doom and gloom talk will make a return
Mr Moose
Member
"When you put a game like Forza Horizon 4 on Game Pass, you instantly have more players of the game, which is actually leading to more sales of the game," Phil Spencer said in 2018.When did they say this? Genuinely curious, I don’t remember.
Anyway, boxed UK sales of a GamePass title
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ChorizoPicozo
Member
the irony is that Phil was using Forza to make the point of GP increases sales.When did they say this? Genuinely curious, I don’t remember.
Anyway, boxed UK sales of a GamePass title
Unknown?
Member
It would only be irrelevant if they didn't parallel digital, which is what I was trying(poorly) to get at. If it accurately reflects trends on digital, which to my knowledge is true, then how can it be irrelevant?
Akuji
Member
While i personally think Hellblade and Avowed will be better then Starfield, the hype starfield got was gigantic. I dont see the hype over Hellblade and Avoved to become something similar. Big? Yes. Starfield level? No, i dont think so.
BUT after 2023 they cannot allow Hellblade or Avowed to be another 7/10 game. Hellblade was the game they showcased when they revealed their console. Avowed was their big showcase "look what we bought" which i never think is a good thing but it kinda works for the american market i guess?
But maybe it works everywhere and iam just in my own bubble thinking who the fuck appreciates something like that. Buying studios then saying look whats coming, we had 0 input in the thing until we showcased it.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
They do see the potential, but they're also running out of rope here.
Hence, the comment by Phil Spencer of shutting down the business if Game Pass doesn't hit 100 million subscribers by 2027 or so.
CeeJay
Member
My post wasn't about Forza mainly though, it was about how irrelevant boxed sales are. In my first line I said that Forza did badly. see the TLDR (bolded) doesn't even mention Forza.
There is no way they don't see a YoY improvement. Their 2022 was absolutely abysmal.
The next financial report better be mighty impressive for Xbox hardware or else the doom and gloom talk will make a return
CeeJay
Member
<1% relevant according to my reckoning so technically still relevant i suppose, i take your point.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
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Klosshufvud
Member
It's a complete disaster for MS. GP was created on the premise that it would not cannibalize software sales (Phil even claimed it promoted sales) but we see time and time again of MS games performing dreadfully on these charts. Forza should have done way better. Starfield should have done way better. But one failure is followed by another. How many more IPs is MS willing to sink in order to get some win out of its highly costly loss leader tactics? Obviously GP hasn't set the world on fire either. MS is stuck in a catastrophic position where its most dedicated base rather rents via GP than buys games and casuals not caring for either thing.
Forza specifically was also hurt by a lackluster marketing and underwhelming end product.
Forza specifically was also hurt by a lackluster marketing and underwhelming end product.
can't be. papa phil said so
"When you put a game like Forza Horizon 4 on Game Pass, you instantly have more players of the game, which is actually leading to more sales of the game," Spencer said.
But even for boxed sales you are adding mobile to the fray. You haven't really shown the irrelevance of boxed sales as much as you have shown the mobile market being huge in terms of units/downloads in comparison. In a chart that doesn’t track mobile.
SportsFan581
Member
OP doesn't realize that the UK boxed charts are irrelevant for a game that launches on PC and a console where the majority of units don't have a disk drive. LOL
Only reason Starfield appeared on this list is because the collectors edition was digital code based.
Only reason Starfield appeared on this list is because the collectors edition was digital code based.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
I'm not saying this to upset Xbox fans, but we're going to see a massive decline in Xbox sales through the holiday season and continuing in 2024.
They're going to have to cut the price of the Xbox and it doesn't look like something they actively want to do.
I'm guessing XSX for 450 and XSS Carbon for 250 by the end of next summer.
Well, we have Steam CCU numbers and they are abysmal too.
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Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
Sales have ticked up in September and October, but I don't think it'll be enough for a YoY increase. We're still looking at a pretty serious decrease and I think it'll be worse for Q4.
They don't have a single exclusive blockbuster game for the second straight holiday season. Their last true blockbuster was Halo Infinite and that's saying something... That's in the last 4 years dating back to before the XSeries.
Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
Those don't count either. Those PC players are actually playing on GamePass. /s
GHG
Gold Member
Man, the damage control is reaching critical levels.
FM is currently 61st on the global top sellers list on steam (Starfield at #45):
steamdb.info
You have a headset from a so called "dead/niche/gimmick" platform that is VR selling more than it, incidentally the very thing that would help propel sales for the game on PC if it were supported.
Or does this chart not count either because of reasons?
FM is currently 61st on the global top sellers list on steam (Starfield at #45):
Steam Current Global Top Sellers
Top selling games on the Steam store globally at this time.
steamdb.info
You have a headset from a so called "dead/niche/gimmick" platform that is VR selling more than it, incidentally the very thing that would help propel sales for the game on PC if it were supported.
Or does this chart not count either because of reasons?
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CeeJay
Member
I used available metrics for the most popular video game ever (by sales) that is also available on a hugely wide array of platforms including consoles, PC and mobile. I then used the available numbers for the current gen console that has sold the most copies of the most popular game ever and found that this console accounted for just 1.7% of the total sales (including digital). Digital is going to be at around 50% of those sales on Switch. Switch Minecraft is very popular and even today is making it into the boxed charts so it's a good proxy to use to get a feel for how the entire picture looks.
Digital Sales Make Up Nearly Half Of FY 2023 Switch Software Sales So Far
Up 21.5% year-on-year
www.nintendolife.com
My post was saying how irrelevant boxed sales are (and getting increasingly more so as people move more towards digital) in the grand scheme of things. Unfortunately consoles as they currently exist are also on a shrinking iceberg as things move more towards mobile. Even with consoles and PC you can stream to mobile (PS NOW and Xcloud, GFORCE NOW) so it's relevant to include the whole picture of where gaming is right now and where it's heading to determine the relevance of boxed sales. The lines are converging and mobile seems to be a much touted destination where they appear to cross so I think it very much apt to include mobile in a discussion about the relevance of boxed charts within that whole picture.
At the end of the day, physical media is simply a delivery method for games the very same way that digital downloads are and also streaming. The platform they are been delivered to doesn't really make that much difference especially when the same products can be available on all those platforms. Another reason why i thought Minecraft was a good game to use as the basis for my post, it's available everywhere. If a game doesn't appear in the boxed charts you can't really say for sure that it's not successful when the whole concept of boxed game charts accounts for such a small percentage of the entire pie.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Tracking increase or decrease in sales in just September and October would be inaccurate and unfair I think. Yearly change in console sales would be a more accurate metric to gauge success and progress.
For the quarter compared to 2022? Man that would truly be a disaster but I think that won't happen. I predict Gaming revenue will see a YoY increase even if low single digit.
Tams
Member
Oh, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is almost perfection of a computer game.
But for a game that game out almost a decade ago, if you're brand new game in a well-known franchise can't outsell it for even a single week...
systemr123
Banned
Yep exactly… But I can’t say too much because the green rat defense squad is watching me.
CeeJay
Member
Now that is a chart I can get behind. Steam accounts for a good size chunk of the demographics and is very much relevant. No doubt about it Forza has not done well. Sea of Thieves managed to turn it around, lets see if Turn10 have the ability to do the same, I hope they do as i've really been enjoying Forza but boy is it rough around the edges! The funny thing is that Playground games are building their game on top of the work that Turn10 have done so it's not like they can get rid of Forza Motorsport and carry on pushing out the Horizon games haha. The student has become the master (but only when they get to use the master's tools!)Man, the damage control is reaching critical levels.
FM is currently 61st on the global top sellers list on steam (Starfield at #45):
Steam Current Global Top Sellers
Top selling games on the Steam store globally at this time.
You have a headset from a so called "dead/niche/gimmick" platform that is VR selling more than it, incidentally the very thing that would help propel sales for the game on PC if it were supported.
Or does this chart not count either because of reasons?
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SportsFan581
Member
There should be some kind of meds you can get for that man.
Wasn't really discussing that. Just having a laugh at how MS could release a console that is 100% digital and we'd still be getting this framing around the UK boxed charts.
Regarding Steam, sim racers typically don't do nearly as well on there as the more arcade style and FH5 is the only racer that I see in the top 100 at all (with player counts that aren't all that high either).
Let us look at the most successful racers on steam and see what those numbers are at the moment ( https://steamdb.info/charts/?tagid=699 )
The game is #11 on Xbox, seems to be about where I figured it would jump in. FH is the stronger brand even on console now.
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Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
I just meant that we might see an uptick for the small point of time, but overall, I think we'll see sales down as it won't be enough.
CeeJay
Member
Yeah, boxed game buyers are weird
That's fair enough but at that point you might as well say almost all games that don't release on mobile are irrelevant and a small percentage of the entire pie in the grand scheme of things. not so much just suggesting boxed sales charts are irrelevant.I used available metrics for the most popular video game ever (by sales) that is also available on a hugely wide array of platforms including consoles, PC and mobile. I then used the available numbers for the current gen console that has sold the most copies of the most popular game ever and found that this console accounted for just 1.7% of the total sales (including digital). Digital is going to be at around 50% of those sales on Switch. Switch Minecraft is very popular and even today is making it into the boxed charts so it's a good proxy to use to get a feel for how the entire picture looks.
Digital Sales Make Up Nearly Half Of FY 2023 Switch Software Sales So Far
Up 21.5% year-on-year
My post was saying how irrelevant boxed sales are (and getting increasingly more so as people move more towards digital) in the grand scheme of things. Unfortunately consoles as they currently exist are also on a shrinking iceberg as things move more towards mobile. Even with consoles and PC you can stream to mobile (PS NOW and Xcloud, GFORCE NOW) so it's relevant to include the whole picture of where gaming is right now and where it's heading to determine the relevance of boxed sales. The lines are converging and mobile seems to be a much touted destination where they appear to cross so I think it very much apt to include mobile in a discussion about the relevance of boxed charts within that whole picture.
At the end of the day, physical media is simply a delivery method for games the very same way that digital downloads are and also streaming. The platform they are been delivered to doesn't really make that much difference especially when the same products can be available on all those platforms. Another reason why i thought Minecraft was a good game to use as the basis for my post, it's available everywhere. If a game doesn't appear in the boxed charts you can't really say for sure that it's not successful when the whole concept of boxed game charts accounts for such a small percentage of the entire pie.
H-I-M
Member
The next financial report better be mighty impressive for Xbox hardware or else the doom and gloom talk will make a return
We're getting the NPD US report somewhere this week for September (with Starfield launch and the impact on hardware sales).
Shall be VERY interesting .
ChorizoPicozo
Member
yep, a heavy dose of reality check
CeeJay
Member
sadly very true, we are a dying breed. I personally can not comprehend why people choose to play on mobile using touch controls, where's the finesse and nuance in that kind of control?
The numbers unfortunately are pretty conclusive.
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