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[JonathanEx]

Our literature should be about the NHS and education in your area - "only the Lib Dems can stand up to the Tory cuts because Corbyn is unpopular and his party is divided"?

I'll check that later out of curiosity. I think latest was Brexit, and we had 'letter from Tim Farron with dear friend written in pen'. Corbyn attacks are fairly common on them.

Is that Lou Haighs seat? I think she's been a fantastic MP so far (I'm south coast so not my area!)

She's Sheffield Heeley. Paul Blomfield is Central.

 

[hodgy100]

Hahaha, this made me laugh harder than it probably should have done. Hello fellow Sheffield Centrallers.

Hello!

You'd have thought it'd have been on the green's campaign, although I know it's actually a local council thing. They're pinning everything on Brexit + Students + It's Natalie Bennet from the stuff I've seen. My thoughts with that are:
- Sheffield voted leave, I know barely, and maybe Central was tighter
- How many of the students live in the Central constitency? I'd have thought Hallam would have more, and also, many will have gone home
- I can't think of Natalie Bennet without doing her Dead Ringers impersonation, I keep baa-ing

There are a bunch of students in central for sure. Most the hallam students are probably based there with a few being further out up eccy road. But yeah most will have gone home by now apart from the international students who obviously cant vote

Yeah Central is Paul, and also yes the LD leaflets contain a tonne of hate towards labour.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

I'll check that later out of curiosity. I think latest was Brexit, and we had 'letter from Tim Farron with dear friend written in pen'. Corbyn attacks are fairly common on them.

Hmm, Electoral Calculus has Sheffield Central down as a strong Remain area, that's why Brexit is a thing on the leaflets.

 

[scotcheggz]

I'm not sure I'm cool with this suspension going on much longer. Yesterday of course, today? Hmm, OK.. But then it's to work people, surely?

May gets to continue campaigning in the sense that she's getting a ton of airtime being the pm, whilst labour have to sit on their hands. She can also dictate it in a way, if she comes out and says we won't go back to campaigning til Monday, theres a danger that labour look heartless if they don't tow the line.

And her shutting the fuck up on the campaign trail only benefits one party, if what we've seen so far is anything to go by.

 

[JonathanEx]

Hmm, Electoral Calculus has Sheffield Central down as a strong Remain area, that's why Brexit is a thing on the leaflets.

IIRC - I think the district was leave, but slightly. I seem to remember being a bit surprised by our local result. If you drill down, I'd assume Central is remain. But not by a landslide. I could be wrong here.

I'm not sure I'm cool with this suspension going on much longer. Yesterday of course, today? Hmm, OK.. But then it's to work people, surely?

May gets to continue campaigning in the sense that she's getting a ton of airtime being the pm, whilst labour have to sit on their hands. She can also dictate it in a way, if she comes out and says we won't go back to campaigning til Monday, theres a danger that labour look heartless if they don't tow the line.

And her shutting the fuck up on the campaign trail only benefits one party, if what we've seen so far is anything to go by.

My guess is unless there's real worries about security - they won't be able to resist a Corbyn hit piece in the Sunday papers about how weak he is, and that'll kick us off back to the campaign.

 

[Fernando Fernandez]

Gotcha! With the leaflet wars we've only had a Lib Dems one quoting the ex leader of Labour here saying Corbyns Labour can't win. Should be interesting as 2015s polling Lib Dem were in third place, we have a new Labour candidate and our most current MP (Splash superstar) Penny Mordant hasn't been seen due to breaking her foot.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Labour could hammer the Conservatives on this if they wanted to. There were 5,639 authorised firearms officers (AFOs) on 31 March 2016. There were 6,979 AFOs in 31st March 2010, the last year for which a Labour government was responsible. During those six years, the Conservatives therefore reduced AFO numbers by 19.2%. That reduces our ability to respond and apprehend to events like this. And I don't think this in a purely political sense. This is a brutal reminder of what the continued destruction of the state actual results in. Conservative policy has been disgusting and needs to be aggressively called out to stop things like this from happening again.

 

[Rodelero]

I'm not sure I'm cool with this suspension going on much longer. Yesterday of course, today? Hmm, OK.. But then it's to work people, surely?

May gets to continue campaigning in the sense that she's getting a ton of airtime being the pm, whilst labour have to sit on their hands. She can also dictate it in a way, if she comes out and says we won't go back to campaigning til Monday, theres a danger that labour look heartless if they don't tow the line.

And her shutting the fuck up on the campaign trail only benefits one party, if what we've seen so far is anything to go by.

The longer the suspension lasts, the harder I find it to believe it isn't at least partially politically motivated. A day, or two days, I can accept. Any more than that?

This was an appalling attack on our nation's heart, and it's not going to stop hurting any time soon. Yet if we allow a terrorist attack to mangle our democracy, which is practically what is happening right now, we are letting them win. Having almost half of the remaining campaign period wiped out would be disproportionate, frankly, and it is hard to miss how much this suits Theresa May, who had, just three hours before the attack, performed terribly in the interview with Andrew Neil.

Realistically, as much as people are wary of politicising this tragedy, voices on both the left and right have started to do just that already - and I'm not just talking about that monster Hopkins.

 

[Acorn]

The longer the suspension lasts, the harder I find it to believe it isn't at least partially politically motivated. A day, or two days, I can accept. Any more than that?

This was an appalling attack on our nation's heart, and it's not going to stop hurting any time soon. Yet if we allow a terrorist attack to mangle our democracy, which is practically what is happening right now, we are letting them win. Having almost half of the remaining campaign period wiped out would be disproportionate, frankly, and it is hard to miss how much this suits Theresa May, who had, just three hours before the attack, performed terribly in the interview with Andrew Neil.

Realistically, as much as people are wary of politicising this tragedy, voices on both the left and right have started to do just that already - and I'm not just talking about that monster Hopkins.

I think suspending untill the weekend makes sense. I still think delaying the election a week or so should happen but that'll never happen.

 

[Meadows]

The longer the suspension lasts, the harder I find it to believe it isn't at least partially politically motivated. A day, or two days, I can accept. Any more than that?

This was an appalling attack on our nation's heart, and it's not going to stop hurting any time soon. Yet if we allow a terrorist attack to mangle our democracy, which is practically what is happening right now, we are letting them win. Having almost half of the remaining campaign period wiped out would be disproportionate, frankly, and it is hard to miss how much this suits Theresa May, who had, just three hours before the attack, performed terribly in the interview with Andrew Neil.

Realistically, as much as people are wary of politicising this tragedy, voices on both the left and right have started to do just that already - and I'm not just talking about that monster Hopkins.

Maybe it's because I live and work in Central Manc and heard the explosions - people running down the street, and am currently two streets away from an armed police raid, but it does seem very premature at the moment considering this is all still going on.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Conservative policy has been disgusting and needs to be aggressively called out to stop things like this from happening again.

A reduction in officer numbers may not be linked to a lowered ability to anticipate attacks.

Preventing a terrorist attack is the role of the conventional and cyber intelligence services as much as the normal police forces.

I want more people working in the police as well, but 1000 more officers with guns are irrelevant if the guns are pointing in the wrong direction.

 

[Rodelero]

I think suspending untill the weekend makes sense. I still think delaying the election a week or so should happen but that'll never happen.

The practicalities around delaying an election are pretty awkward. Either way, the most important issue right now is arguably the lack of clarity. We don't know when campaigning is going to resume. We don't know whether the election will be delayed. It suits the Conservatives for the campaign to be delayed as long as possible and they are the ones who, effectively, get to choose when it resumes.

All the while, journalists are politicising the hell out of it anyway, primarily those on the right who want to use this to push their various nasty agendas.

 

[Coriolanus]

A reduction in officer numbers may not be linked to a lowered ability to anticipate attacks.

Preventing a terrorist attack is the role of the conventional and cyber intelligence services as much as the normal police forces.

I want more people working in the police as well, but 1000 more officers with guns are irrelevant if the guns are pointing in the wrong direction.

While true, not particularly relevant. Is easy to sell the image that more cop eyeballs on the ground => greater likelihood of detecting someone acting quite fucking fishy indeed. No one's gonna pay much attention to the downside of that just after a tragedy occurred. Seems to be a good narrative to push atm.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Even as a Lib Dem pushing for more officers, I am loathe to say anything like "this is May's fault".

It is impossible to prevent 100% of all plots from concluding.

 

[empyrean]

You just know though that may will use this to push for an even more invasive totalitarian state. Snoopers charter on steroids incoming.

 

[Uzzy]

Labour could hammer the Conservatives on this if they wanted to. There were 5,639 authorised firearms officers (AFOs) on 31 March 2016. There were 6,979 AFOs in 31st March 2010, the last year for which a Labour government was responsible. During those six years, the Conservatives therefore reduced AFO numbers by 19.2%. That reduces our ability to respond and apprehend to events like this. And I don't think this in a purely political sense. This is a brutal reminder of what the continued destruction of the state actual results in. Conservative policy has been disgusting and needs to be aggressively called out to stop things like this from happening again.

Over 2,000 of the AFO's are based in London too. While it certainly makes sense to have a lot of them available in London, the rest of the country is woefully lacking in them. Greater Manchester has the second highest number of AFO's, around 200.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

UKIP manifesto tomorrow. The party is effectively going to have to relaunch as the acceptable face of white nationalism or libertarian...

My hunch is the former. If there's one positive of this horrible event it'll encourage the hard right of the Tory voting bloc to flee to the dog whistlers. I don't want a UKIP-backed Tory party dealing with the fallout of this.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

A reduction in officer numbers may not be linked to a lowered ability to anticipate attacks.

Preventing a terrorist attack is the role of the conventional and cyber intelligence services as much as the normal police forces.

I want more people working in the police as well, but 1000 more officers with guns are irrelevant if the guns are pointing in the wrong direction.

Of course, but they're related. If we had more AFOs, that frees up resources that can be used elsewhere. This is why we're currently using the military - it doesn't help anticipate attacks in and of itself, but it means you have less police forces tied in protecting key sites and more police to work in the community and with affected areas.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Labour could hammer the Conservatives on this if they wanted to. There were 5,639 authorised firearms officers (AFOs) on 31 March 2016. There were 6,979 AFOs in 31st March 2010, the last year for which a Labour government was responsible. During those six years, the Conservatives therefore reduced AFO numbers by 19.2%. That reduces our ability to respond and apprehend to events like this. And I don't think this in a purely political sense. This is a brutal reminder of what the continued destruction of the state actual results in. Conservative policy has been disgusting and needs to be aggressively called out to stop things like this from happening again.

I don't really follow. If Labour were in power and there had been an extra 1000 AFOs this wouldn't have happened? Would an AFO have been stood in the foyer of the Ariana Grande concert? It looks like you're saying that the reduction in AFO numbers "result[ed] in" this, but that sounds dubious to me. I think it would have happened either way.

 

[Acorn]

Lol@UKIP, nobody gives a shit about you, bunch of losers. They shouldn't of even been invited to debates, they have as much relevance as the Communist party.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I don't really follow. If Labour were in power and there had been an extra 1000 AFOs this wouldn't have happened? Would an AFO have been stood in the foyer of the Ariana Grande concert? It looks like you're saying that the reduction in AFO numbers "result[ed] in" this, but that sounds dubious to me. I think it would have happened either way.

AFOs aren't the only thing that's been reduced, I just highlight them because they're instrumental in our response to these events and preventing follow-up attacks. Overall, police numbers have been reduced by over 20,000 over the Conservative time in office. That includes counterterrorism and intelligence.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Of course, but they're related. If we had more AFOs, that frees up resources that can be used elsewhere.

Except it's far more than just the conventional police that are involved with something like this.

This is a person that presumably:

1. Communicated electronically in the weeks leading to the attack (GCHQ)
2. Was in Lybia, and potentially elsewhere, before returning (MI6 and allied FIS)
3. Was presumably part of a radical cell here (MI5, police CT/intelligence)

So it's a balance - I don't think linking police officer numbers to this is something that is going to wash with the public, as it's an argument that falls over as soon as you say the words "James Bond's not a police officer". This is exactly the topic I would stay very far away from until AFTER the election. Police force cuts are damaging for many reasons - let's talk about them instead and leave the what-ifs of this incident alone.

 

[Theonik]

The problem with Labour's policing pledges is they will have Diane Abbott out to pitch/defend them. It's a losing proposition!

 

[Coriolanus]

So it's a balance - I don't think linking police officer numbers to this is something that is going to wash with the public, as it's an argument that falls over as soon as you say the words "James Bond's not a police officer". This is exactly the topic I would stay very far away from until AFTER the election. Police force cuts are damaging for many reasons - let's talk about them instead and leave the what-ifs of this incident alone.

Evidently. Which is why you only mention the reduction in PoPo, mention generic downsides, and let people connect the dots. Explicitly mentioning the incident would most likely be seen as too ghoulish.

Ain't no one gon retort with a horses and bayonets comment rn either, fwiw.

 

[Acorn]

The problem with Labour's policing pledges is they will have Diane Abbott out to pitch/defend them. It's a losing proposition!

Urgh she's such a pillock. Someone should lock her in a cupboard until​ election day.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

AFOs aren't the only thing that's been reduced, I just highlight them because they're instrumental in our response to these events and preventing follow-up attacks. Overall, police numbers have been reduced by over 20,000 over the Conservative time in office. That includes counterterrorism and intelligence.

Ah ok, that makes more sense

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Except it's far more than just the conventional police that are involved with something like this.

This is a person that presumably:

1. Communicated electronically in the weeks leading to the attack (GCHQ)
2. Was in Lybia, and potentially elsewhere, before returning (MI6 and allied FIS)
3. Was presumably part of a radical cell here (MI5, police CT/intelligence)

Police intelligence and GCHQ have both received real budget reductions since 2010, though (we don't know by how much, as it's classified, which is the same reason I can't tell you anything about the MIs). It is simply true that this increases the risk of events like Manchester. Whether it would have prevented Manchester specifically, I don't know and won't comment on - that wouldn't be appropriate at all. But it leads to a future with more Manchesters in it, and that's something they need to be taken to task for.

 

[Ghost]

The problem with Labour's policing pledges is they will have Diane Abbott out to pitch/defend them. It's a losing proposition!

This is very true, even if she hadn't already messed up the launch of the policing policies you wouldn't want Diane in a TV studio trying to suggest we need more police officers now, 100% guaranteed to stick her foot in it.

 

[Herr Schwarz]

My fucking Mum is voting for the Tories because "Only Theresa May can get us through Brexit" what in the utter fuck. We've got a sister (her daughter) that is mentally disabled (anxiety, depression etc) it's like chickens voting to go to mcdonalds to find out how mcnuggets are made.

I fucking hate this fucking cunt hole country man. Everyone I know is a raging tacitly racist cunt, from my family to friends. It's a real shit blister for me over here.

 

[Acorn]

My fucking Mum is voting for the Tories because "Only Theresa May can get us through Brexit" what in the utter fuck. We've got a sister (her daughter) that is mentally disabled (anxiety, depression etc) it's like chickens voting to go to mcdonalds to find out how mcnuggets are made.

I fucking hate this fucking cunt hole country man. Everyone I know is a raging tacitly racist cunt, from my family to friends. It's a real shit blister for me over here.

My condolences, I don't know what I'd do if my mum went tory. I know it is bad just now but we still have good People in this country.

 

[SKINNER!]

Sounds like your mother is hanging out with people (probably the "I'm not racist but.." crowd) who are flooding her head with nonsense because I genuinely refuse to believe that a mother would vote for a party that would put her vulnerable child in danger unless she didn't care for the child.

 

[Little Old Man]

This is very true, even if she hadn't already messed up the launch of the policing policies you wouldn't want Diane in a TV studio trying to suggest we need more police officers now, 100% guaranteed to stick her foot in it.

'Well...... If Labour win the election, we will bring in an extra 5000 armed officers, at a cost of £30,0000.'

 

[PJV3]

My fucking Mum is voting for the Tories because "Only Theresa May can get us through Brexit" what in the utter fuck. We've got a sister (her daughter) that is mentally disabled (anxiety, depression etc) it's like chickens voting to go to mcdonalds to find out how mcnuggets are made.

I fucking hate this fucking cunt hole country man. Everyone I know is a raging tacitly racist cunt, from my family to friends. It's a real shit blister for me over here.

I wish there was some way to turn around this fetish for tough leadership, the country will survive if Theresa loses. We might even get a better deal if the Tory tosspots got thrown out and we dropped the red, white and blue crap.

 

[Mr. Sam]

Sounds like your mother is hanging out with people (probably the "I'm not racist but.." crowd) who are flooding her head with nonsense because I genuinely refuse to believe that a mother would vote for a party that would put her vulnerable child in danger unless she didn't care for the child.

The "Stronger hand for Brexit" stuff is pretty mainstream Tory fluff; she'd only need to open a newspaper or listen to the radio to absorb it. I hardly think she's been hanging out with a bunch of ne'er-do-well Kippers underneath a bridge.

 

[HaloRose]

My fucking Mum is voting for the Tories because "Only Theresa May can get us through Brexit" what in the utter fuck. We've got a sister (her daughter) that is mentally disabled (anxiety, depression etc) it's like chickens voting to go to mcdonalds to find out how mcnuggets are made.

I fucking hate this fucking cunt hole country man. Everyone I know is a raging tacitly racist cunt, from my family to friends. It's a real shit blister for me over here.

My granddad was going to vote the tories and so was my uncle but i change their mind so now they're voting labour so it's all good.

 

[Dirtyshubb]

My fucking Mum is voting for the Tories because "Only Theresa May can get us through Brexit" what in the utter fuck. We've got a sister (her daughter) that is mentally disabled (anxiety, depression etc) it's like chickens voting to go to mcdonalds to find out how mcnuggets are made.

I fucking hate this fucking cunt hole country man. Everyone I know is a raging tacitly racist cunt, from my family to friends. It's a real shit blister for me over here.

Sadly the media have been priming our population for the last 30 years with its anti-EU/Immigrant/poor rhetoric and an education system that teaches us we are great and deserve to rule the world.

We now have a bunch of people who believe we have no power or control and have mass immigrants running around both stealing our jobs and spending all our taxes on benefits.

Its basically:

Rich in control, they run the national narrative through the media
Very poor hate the immigrants, blame them for their woes
Everyone in between hates both the poor and immigrants

So we have a country full of people who hate and blame everyone who they shouldn't for the countries problems while also proclaiming to be the greatest and strongest society who embrace inclusiveness.

I would love more than anything for us as a country to get over ourselves and realise we aren't that great and we still have a lot of work to put in before we can resemble anything near great. Of course that is never going to happen when we have a conservative government stoking the patriotic flames to keep themselves in power.

Nationalism really is the fucking worst, and that comes from a white, straight, cis guy who grew up in council flat in Lambeth.

 

[Dougald]

My fucking Mum is voting for the Tories because "Only Theresa May can get us through Brexit" what in the utter fuck. We've got a sister (her daughter) that is mentally disabled (anxiety, depression etc) it's like chickens voting to go to mcdonalds to find out how mcnuggets are made.

I fucking hate this fucking cunt hole country man. Everyone I know is a raging tacitly racist cunt, from my family to friends. It's a real shit blister for me over here.

My mother in law is all for UKIP/Tory/Brexit for much the same reasons, despite two of her kids working low paying jobs and one continually being fucked over by zero hours.

 

[Acorn]

Sounds like your mother is hanging out with people (probably the "I'm not racist but.." crowd) who are flooding her head with nonsense because I genuinely refuse to believe that a mother would vote for a party that would put her vulnerable child in danger unless she didn't care for the child.

I dunno, many working class repeatedly vote against their self interest every election. See the tax credits shambles for example, that is a lifeline for many on the lower pay scale but some still vote tory. The self harm of voters never ceases to amaze and infuriate me.

 

[hodgy100]

A friend of mine I thought was a staunch Conservative voter has said they aren't voting. I think its because they dont like the dementia tax + may wanting to mess with the internet.

My mum has flipped away from Tory too

 

[Huw_Dawson]

I'll say it again by the way - there are still far too many people undecided in this election for anything to be known right now.

For all we know Farron will be interviewed by Neil tonight and do stupidly well and swing the debate again - possibly back towards Brexit, almost certainly being able to push the "killer app" of the LD platform (penny on the pound for the NHS). If that goes ahead, of course.

Or he bursts into tears. Or he flubs a religious question. We don't know. Same as Corbyn.

 

[TimmmV]

My mother in law is all for UKIP/Tory/Brexit for much the same reasons, despite two of her kids working low paying jobs and one continually being fucked over by zero hours.

My Grandad voted to leave despite 6 of his 13 grandchildren having a parent who is an immigrant, some people just have their head up their arse unfortunately

 

[JonathanEx]

I'll say it again by the way - there are still far too many people undecided in this election for anything to be known right now.

For all we know Farron will be interviewed by Neil tonight and do stupidly well and swing the debate again - possibly back towards Brexit, almost certainly being able to push the "killer app" of the LD platform (penny on the pound for the NHS). If that goes ahead, of course.

Or he bursts into tears. Or he flubs a religious question. We don't know. Same as Corbyn.

Nah they're all off for now. The One Show is back tonight. Thursday Sturgeon is still in the schedule but I wouldn't hold your breath for that.

Seems to be UKIP will attempt to go back to it all tomorrow with their manifesto but no-one else seems to want to join yet. Fri/Sunday for the rest I'm currently guessing, depending on where we get with the news that we believe the bomber was part of a network.

 

[SKINNER!]

A friend of mine I thought was a staunch Conservative voter has said they aren't voting. I think its because they dont like the dementia tax + may wanting to mess with the internet.

My mum has flipped away from Tory too

Interesting. So was it Cameron's charm that fooled people to vote tory before or are the tories today just losing it?

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Nah they're all off for now. The One Show is back tonight. Thursday Sturgeon is still in the schedule but I wouldn't hold your breath for that.

:|

 

[Fernando Fernandez]

I hadn't actually thought of how many would be Tory voters are going to go back to UKIP after the tragic events. The amount of misdirected anger over what's happened could see a terrible UKIP policy turn into a huge voter getter.

 

[JonathanEx]

:|

I know, I thought things were bad, but not so bad that we're getting *more* of the One Show.

 

[hodgy100]

Interesting. So was it Cameron's charm that fooled people to vote tory before or are the tories today just losing it?

I dont know. But if im honest I didnt see cameron as "that bad" in the 2015 election i could see why people would vote for him. The conservative party of today just feels so more extreme than the one of 2015.

 

[Herr Schwarz]

I dont know. But if im honest I didnt see cameron as "that bad" in the 2015 election i could see why people would vote for him. The conservative party of today just feels so more extreme than the one of 2015.

Because they are trying to get UKIP voters. The same way I suppose how republicans are now pulling between regular conservatives and tea party assholes.

All they're doing is laying the runway for a charismatic dictator type to cut loose on shit.

 

[Mr Git]

My fucking Mum is voting for the Tories because "Only Theresa May can get us through Brexit" what in the utter fuck. We've got a sister (her daughter) that is mentally disabled (anxiety, depression etc) it's like chickens voting to go to mcdonalds to find out how mcnuggets are made.

I fucking hate this fucking cunt hole country man. Everyone I know is a raging tacitly racist cunt, from my family to friends. It's a real shit blister for me over here.

It's amazing how easily people lap up Crosby's web of bullshit.

This reminds me of when I worked in CMT and one of the nurses I worked with was voting Tory in the 2010 election and everyone was like... the fuck? Since then pretty much all the mental health services here have been closed and I believe that nurse now has to commute 50 miles to work. I suspect now it'll be even more of a rarity finding an NHS worker who votes Tory, they've decimated the service.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

I know, I thought things were bad, but not so bad that we're getting *more* of the One Show.

:|||||||||

Oh, update on my LD prospects. Based on Betfair...

GAINS
Cambridge
Twickenham
East Dunbartonshire
Kingston + Surbiton
Edinburgh West
Bermondsey + Old Southwark
NE Fife

POSSIBLE GAINS
Richmond (the odds are shortening every time I look)
Eastbourne
Lewes
T+Y
Bath
Burnley
C+S+ER
R+S+L Vauxhall

POSSIBLE LOSSES
Southport (UKIP y u no stand down here)

LIKELY LOSSES (Depends on how much the Tory vote falls pre-election)
Carshalton
North Norfolk

My final range is thus 12 to 23. Most of the above is off of common sense and the Betfair vote.

This would be a serious victory if we hit 20.