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[King_Moc]

Theresa May on Corbyn's speech:

PM at g7: "Jeremy Corbyn has said [attacks] are our own fault... just a few days after one of the worst atrocities in UK..."

"There can be no excuse for terrorism..can be no excuse for what happened in Manchester...Choice at the election got starker" says PM at G7

100% lie.

 

[Moobabe]

100% lie.

Fingers crossed some people (most...) see through this bullshit for what it is.

 

[whyamihere]

UKIP now below SNP

 

[PJV3]

Theresa May on Corbyn's speech:

PM at g7: "Jeremy Corbyn has said [attacks] are our own fault... just a few days after one of the worst atrocities in UK..."

"There can be no excuse for terrorism..can be no excuse for what happened in Manchester...Choice at the election got starker" says PM at G7

It's pretty sad they can't attack him for what he actually said instead of the fantasy version of the speech.

 

[ferrasvansen]

She has lost the plot, internal polling must be very worrying otherwise it's baffling she is turning into Trump with the lies and misleading bullshit.

 

[Ashes]

It's pretty sad they can't attack him for what he actually said instead of the fantasy version of the speech.

I doubt she had time to actually listen to what he said.

Corbyn PR folks outfoxed both the Lib Dems and the Tories.

 

[Pandy]

Theresa May on Corbyn's speech:

PM at g7: "Jeremy Corbyn has said [attacks] are our own fault... just a few days after one of the worst atrocities in UK..."

"There can be no excuse for terrorism..can be no excuse for what happened in Manchester...Choice at the election got starker" says PM at G7

Hey, Huw. For clarification, this is what making political capital out of tragedy looks like.

 

[jem0208]

Radicalisation at home is a radically different problem, and should be treated as such. But Corbyn's gone on stage today and told folks that the terrorists are right - it's not their own ideology that's wrong, it's that they were forced into those acts by what the West had done before.

Damn, if I didn't already know otherwise I'd have you pegged as a Tory based on the level of spin being applied here.

When you're basically saying the same lies as Theresa May you know something has gone wrong...

 

[King_Moc]

Damn, if I didn't already know I'd have you pegged as a Tory based on the level of spin being applied here.

5 years of being one of them is bound to rub off on you a bit.

 

[WhateverItTakes]

Theresa May on Corbyn's speech:

PM at g7: "Jeremy Corbyn has said [attacks] are our own fault... just a few days after one of the worst atrocities in UK..."

"There can be no excuse for terrorism..can be no excuse for what happened in Manchester...Choice at the election got starker" says PM at G7

Choice just got 10ft starker!

Give us some blunders at the G7 please, I want this to get TASTY

 

[Moobabe]

BBC are already running their headline from the Andrew Neil interview tonight:

"Jeremy Corbyn refuses to support Trident in BBC interview”

 

[Beefy]

Poll update (5pm)

 

[King_Moc]

BBC are already running their headline from the Andrew Neil interview tonight:

"Jeremy Corbyn refuses to support Trident in BBC interview”

It's literally in the manifesto.

 

[WhateverItTakes]

BBC are already running their headline from the Andrew Neil interview tonight:

"Jeremy Corbyn refuses to support Trident in BBC interview”

I'm seeing the headline 'Corbyn pressed on Tridant renewal'. Body of the article seems it's a case of his personal views clashing with the party which doesn't seem to bad to me. Gonna watch the interview though so we'll see how it comes across.

 

[Hazzuh]

Ashcroft has a model which is predicting a 150~ seat majority for the Tories:

We then calculate the total number of seats each party could win by looking at the sum of each party's win chances across all the seats in which it is standing. Based on an update survey conducted at the height of the ”dementia tax" controversy following the Conservative manifesto launch, the combined probabilities currently give the Tories a total of 396 seats (down from 406 last week), or an implied potential majority of 142.

Details of the his model here:

Today I am launching a new model designed to estimate opinion across the country and in individual constituencies, and to give a sense of how this could translate into seats in the House of Commons. The Ashcroft Model is based on Multilevel Regression and Poststratification, or MRP – a process that combines survey results with concrete demographic and other information to calculate the probability that a certain individual will have a certain view, given what we already know about them. The project will make available the kind of information that is increasingly used by political parties and professional campaigns, but rarely finds its way into the public domain.

The Ashcroft Model combines the results of a 40,000-sample survey (the biggest I have ever conducted) with detailed census data. This shows us the likelihood that particular kinds of people – in terms of their age, sex, occupation, level of education, and so on – will have a particular opinion. It uses information from people of the same demographic background but who are from substantially different geographic areas to help calculate these probabilities. Crucially, the model then allows us to extrapolate this information to individual constituencies according to the profile of their population. On this basis we make estimates including whether each seat is ”likely" or ”leaning" to one party, or is ”too close to call"; views on the best Prime Minister; and the level of personal economic optimism in each constituency – together with the potential implications for seat numbers for each party and the new government's majority. The direction of each seat – and the implied range of potential gains and losses – are presented on the basis of three different scenarios: if turnout in June is as it was in 2015, if it matches that of the EU referendum, and if people turn out according to their own stated likelihood to do so. Estimates for each seat will be updated on the basis of new surveys each week until polling day.

Just as traditional polling comes with caveats – that figures are subject to a margin of error, and only represent a snapshot in time – the Ashcroft Model comes with stipulations of its own. To adapt my 2015 mantra, we will be dealing with probabilities, not predictions. The combination of survey and census data will show the probability that certain types of people will behave in certain ways, and the data is presented on that basis. This in turn means that we are applying a national model to specific local areas with their own circumstances. Though we will continue to refine the model as we update the findings each week, we should be prepared for a few anomalies. The seat-by-seat estimates – and, by extension, the implied parliamentary majorities – are therefore not by any means hard and fast predictions. Modelling techniques like this are more widely used in America, where it is regarded as an amazing achievement (or a massive fluke) to forecast the right result in all fifty states – never mind 632 separate parliamentary seats. The chances of showing the right winner in every constituency are extremely small.

He also has constituency by constituency predictions.

 

[D4Danger]

edit: nvm.

 

[D4Danger]

BBC are already running their headline from the Andrew Neil interview tonight:

"Jeremy Corbyn refuses to support Trident in BBC interview”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40065876

Jeremy Corbyn has refused to give his personal support for the renewal of Trident nuclear weapons, despite it being in Labour's manifesto.

The Labour leader said Trident renewal would go ahead because MPs had voted for it and the Labour Party backed it.

But he repeatedly declined to say whether he agreed with it, in an interview with the BBC's Andrew Neil.

And he said nuclear weapons would be included in a defence review if Labour won power on 8 June.

it's his personal view they're questioning not the manifesto pledge.

 

[PJV3]

It must be a dull interview if that is the big story from it, at least it's nothing new to most people that he isn't a fan of nukes.

 

[Empty]

if corbyn suddenly pretended that he was personally in favour of trident despite a career opposing nuclear weapons he'd get roasted by andrew neil too

trident is just a bad issue for labour atm

 

[FlammableD]

A thought I had earlier

At the start of this campaign, a lot of people, including in this thread, were 100% convinced Corbyn had to quit when he lost the election (or even before).

Now that a 20 point lead is down to 5, would you still say he has to go after the election? Say it's a very close result.

Genuine question, I don't know how assumed it is that losing leaders will quit after an election.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

A thought I had earlier

At the start of this campaign, a lot of people, including in this thread, were 100% convinced Corbyn had to quit when he lost the election (or even before).

Now that a 20 point lead is down to 5, would you still say he has to go after the election? Say it's a very close result.

Genuine question, I don't know how assumed it is that losing leaders will quit after an election.

I think he still should go and step aside. This election would easily be winnable by any other big Labour figure given how bad May actually is.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Whilst I enjoy watching Corbyn have to take tough questions, we had to recently move away from scrapping Trident ourselves, so I'm not going to put the boot in too much.

But hey, it'll be good TV.

@Royal_Phalanx, we'd not be having this election if a Labour moderate was in charge.

 

[jelly]

Theresa May on Corbyn's speech:

PM at g7: "Jeremy Corbyn has said [attacks] are our own fault... just a few days after one of the worst atrocities in UK..."

"There can be no excuse for terrorism..can be no excuse for what happened in Manchester...Choice at the election got starker" says PM at G7

May lying

Job done, media will roll with the sound bite, most people won't read beyond the headline. Doesn't matter what Corbyn actually said.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

FPTP will get May more seats than she actually deserves based on vote shares. I predict a 70-80 majority for May regardless.

If there was a PR system in place a liberal/Labour coalition would be viable right now. Our voting system is so shit.

 

[Dabanton]

Theresa May on Corbyn's speech:

PM at g7: "Jeremy Corbyn has said [attacks] are our own fault... just a few days after one of the worst atrocities in UK..."

"There can be no excuse for terrorism..can be no excuse for what happened in Manchester...Choice at the election got starker" says PM at G7

It speaks volumes of her that she and her minsters can be so disgustedly disingenuous.

I think a lot of the other parties were expecting a much more radical speech. A quick glance on the Daily Mail website for this story shows that even the individuals who haunt their comment sections and are mostly anti Corbyn say his talking sense.

I really think the tories have really misjudged the current public mood. People are sick of this bullshit. Can't May, even in an event like this just tell us the truth.

 

[kmag]

Brillohead noticably more aggressive with Corbyn than with May. The BBC should be forbidden from doing politics until they can stick to their charter.

 

[Beefy]

Watching the Corbyn interview now.

 

[Rodelero]

Brillohead noticably more aggressive with Corbyn than with May. The BBC should be forbidden from doing politics until they can stick to their charter.

This is bascially an assassination. Not so much that the line of questioning is unfair but this simply isn't the same Andrew Neil that turned up on Monday and threw soft balls at May.

 

[Empty]

corbyn calm but boring under some strong scrutiny of his foreign policy positions

 

[Huw_Dawson]

This is predictable - Andrew Neil is well-prepared.

 

[empyrean]

This ira stuff is going over my head being only 29 but is this actually a big deal? Might be my ignorance but I couldn't care less?

 

[Rodelero]

Corbyn got a bit flustered there. He's not enjoying this at all. Seventeen minutes in and literally every single one has been about security.

Andrew Neil has just asked, about five times, whether Corbyn supports Trident, which is completely irrelevant. I haven't learned -anything- about Corbyn's positions from this interview. It may as well have been the Daily Mail interviewing him.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

"Will you let me finish Andrew"
"I will if you answer the question!"

This is not very good for Corbyn.

Why are we not talking about Tory policies.

 

[Psychotext]

This is stupid, everyone knows he doesn't support it personally, but the party does.

 

[empyrean]

Think jezza should have just not turned up lol.

 

[jelly]

He got really hammered in the first 15mins. Not sure about that IRA stuff but he is a pacifist so not sure you can drag him down with it.

 

[Pixieking]

Sounds like Trident and Corbyn is the Labour version of Farron and LGBTQ rights?

 

[Empty]

he hasn't been able to get across any positives from this interview

This ira stuff is going over my head being only 29 but is this actually a big deal? Might be my ignorance but I couldn't care less?

i mean i don't think anyone cares about northern ireland. we just had a referendum where the outcome has serious ramifications for the peace process and it wasn't mentioned at all in the debate. this is minutiae about ancient politics for nearly all the electorate.

however i think people care if they believe that it demonstrates that corbyn is an apologist for terrorists and won't keep us safe

 

[Beefy]

This is predictable - Andrew Neil is well-prepared.

It would help if Neil lets people he interviews talk. The dude just shouts and butts in all the damn time.

 

[Jezbollah]

This ira stuff is going over my head being only 29 but is this actually a big deal? Might be my ignorance but I couldn't care less?

At the very least, for those in the Army and the families who have known victims killed or injured by the IRA, this is a big deal.

 

[Empty]

25 mins in and corbyn finally gets to make a prepared campaign line on the manifesto

 

[Joni]

It would be nice if the UKIP would go full racist and steals Tory votes like this. Labour needs all the support it can get.

 

[Beefy]

Corbyn is so damn calm I give him that much.

 

[Real Hero]

and that andrew is your choice

what and ending haha

 

[Rodelero]

Corbyn is so damn calm I give him that much.

I think he's furious to be honest. There were a couple of moments where the facade slipped there. I don't think he can quite believe how hostile Neil was. It could not have been more obvious that Neil wanted to destroy Corbyn's chances.

 

[Moze]

Not too bad imo. Corbyn is very calm under pressure. Especially when compared to May in her interview the other day.

 

[WhateverItTakes]

Really didn't get a lot of room to be positive there. The IRA issue is an odd one for me at my age because having not lived through it, it's not something that resonates with me as a problem. Though I understand how if your family were affected then it'd be something to think over.

Maybe he needs to hire Reggie for a Corbyn Direct.

 

[jelly]

I suppose if anything it gets it all out there and he can get back to polices. He really wasn't allowed a breather until the latter half.

 

[Empty]

I think he's furious to be honest. There were a couple of moments where the facade slipped there. I don't think he can quite believe how hostile Neil was. It could not have been more obvious that Neil wanted to destroy Corbyn's chances.

i really don't think there was much difference in hostility between corbyn and may's interviews. andrew neil went for her throat for 30 mins too, it's the job.

 

[Beefy]

I think he's furious to be honest. There were a couple of moments where the facade slipped there. I don't think he can quite believe how hostile Neil was. It could not have been more obvious that Neil wanted to destroy Corbyn's chances.

Neil is annoying as fuck. Dude just shouts and butts in all the time. I get you have to heckle a person, but the guy just comes across as a knob.