If the Lib Dems end up getting close to 15 percent on E-Day I think they will win 25+ seats.Now the question is if the lib dems can ruin the chances of the tories winning 400+ seats on June 8th. Labour also really needs to turn out their base to prevent the tories from breaking 400+ seats.
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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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If the Lib Dems end up getting close to 15 percent on E-Day I think they will win 25+ seats.Now the question is if the lib dems can ruin the chances of the tories winning 400+ seats on June 8th. Labour also really needs to turn out their base to prevent the tories from breaking 400+ seats.
Daily Mail agenda (ie not reality)
PJV3
Member
What's with all the volatility, the other polls going the other way are similar, are people just on a wind up.
Was always a risk considering how many people vote Con that are either pensioners already or about to be.
lol the mail is still pissed about the foreign aid commitment imo
idk most people thought david cameron was a lot more competent than ed miliband yet you never had those numbers two years ago. if you look at the 'who would make the best pm?' question. corbyn today is polling at 25%, which is also what miliband was polling in 2015.
cameron alienated many potential voters to ukip over his time because he was perceived as being soft - on immigration, on the eu, on tory values etc. he only won a tiny majority in 2015 because lib dems collapsed in the tory-lib dem marginals. now brexit has happened and may is welcoming them back into the fold with her more right wing approach the tory vote is huge.
there's a strong competence angle yes, labour cannot pick up any tory-remainers who want a soft brexit when no-one takes them seriously, but i don't think it's the whole story of why may is so popular.
idk most people thought david cameron was a lot more competent than ed miliband yet you never had those numbers two years ago. if you look at the 'who would make the best pm?' question. corbyn today is polling at 25%, which is also what miliband was polling in 2015.
cameron alienated many potential voters to ukip over his time because he was perceived as being soft - on immigration, on the eu, on tory values etc. he only won a tiny majority in 2015 because lib dems collapsed in the tory-lib dem marginals. now brexit has happened and may is welcoming them back into the fold with her more right wing approach the tory vote is huge.
there's a strong competence angle yes, labour cannot pick up any tory-remainers who want a soft brexit when no-one takes them seriously, but i don't think it's the whole story of why may is so popular.
That's how it is .... I was never a fan of Cameron, but I never particularly disliked Brown, but Corbyn? He's just a joke, and he's also a terrorist sympathiser, which everybody knows, and no working class voter will ever support.
Well it is the Mail on Sunday, so not quite so bad. They even came out for remain, somehow
I guess if we're not going to raise taxes like the papers want but also raise costs due to brexit then the last 7 years of crippling austerity really have been a pointless farce. Good to know.
I don't know a single person who likes Corbyn. Even my redder than red labour until the day he dies brother in law thinks the mans bad for Labour
Triple lock was one of the most regressive taxes ever, I'm glad that it's ending (and if not then I'll be complaining")
Huw_Dawson
Member
Just went out in an email to the entire party - we are 100% ruling out forming a coalition with either the Tories or Labour. A vote for the LDs is just that - no secret backdoor to getting Corbyn or May into power.
Pretty big announcement tbh ans something I was hoping for.
Well Triple Lock was just a way for the oldies to vote for cuts without getting affected by them. Either abandon it or abandon austerity, I say
Well you can have my vote with a clear conscience then, as a former LD voter. Not that you stand a chance of winning here but hey
So stop whinging about the coalition, and just accept that you did what was best for the country.
Yep, which is why many Tory voters still hate Cameron ....
Huw_Dawson
Member
Ravensmash
Member
I heard something on Radio 4 today about a possible Tory tactic following this exact line.
Essentially telling the public that the fight is still on and closer than actuality.
Wish I could recall what was said but I was half asleep...
Not sure if already posted but look at this gem
Roberto Larcos
Member
Quick reminder, if anyone would like to join the prediction league for the election, PM me or quote this post and put in your own numbers. Winner gets a bottle of something, probably. Should make election night more fun. I'm keeping track of all predictions on an Excel spreadsheet.
Conservative Party seats:
Green Party seats:
Labour seats:
Lib Dem seats:
Plaid Cymru seats:
SNP seats:
UKIP seats:
Independently held seats:
Seats held by other parties:
BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland?
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland?
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales?*
The Portillo award goes to..?
First resignation of the night?
How many party leaders will resign?
Seat for Nuttall?
Margin of victory by seats:
Margin of victory by votes:
Scoring works as follows: 1 point per correct seat allocation. 10 points per correct bonus question. For margin of victory by seats, 50 points for a perfect answer, lose 1 point per seat away from that perfect answer that you were. For margin of victory by votes, 50 points for a perfect answer (rounded to 100,000), lose one point per 100,000 that you were away from thay perfect answer. Margins will be between party with most seats / votes and the party with the second most seats / votes. Portillo award winner will be decided on the night.
Quote to reveal the Excel spreadsheet, if you want to have a gander at others' predictions.
Conservative Party seats:
Green Party seats:
Labour seats:
Lib Dem seats:
Plaid Cymru seats:
SNP seats:
UKIP seats:
Independently held seats:
Seats held by other parties:
BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland?
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland?
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales?*
The Portillo award goes to..?
First resignation of the night?
How many party leaders will resign?
Seat for Nuttall?
Margin of victory by seats:
Margin of victory by votes:
Scoring works as follows: 1 point per correct seat allocation. 10 points per correct bonus question. For margin of victory by seats, 50 points for a perfect answer, lose 1 point per seat away from that perfect answer that you were. For margin of victory by votes, 50 points for a perfect answer (rounded to 100,000), lose one point per 100,000 that you were away from thay perfect answer. Margins will be between party with most seats / votes and the party with the second most seats / votes. Portillo award winner will be decided on the night.
Quote to reveal the Excel spreadsheet, if you want to have a gander at others' predictions.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Yougov:
Con 48
Lab 25
LD 12
UKIP 5
Survation:
Con 40
Lab 29
LD 11
UKIP 11
Survation, Scotland only:
SNP 43
Con 28
Lab 18 (!!!!!!)
LD 9
And Britain Elects now puts the LDs in third for the first time since 2012, due to the collapse of the UKIP vote.
If the Tories continue to surge in Scotland, the SNP may well get knocked off their perch.
Con 48
Lab 25
LD 12
UKIP 5
Survation:
Con 40
Lab 29
LD 11
UKIP 11
Survation, Scotland only:
SNP 43
Con 28
Lab 18 (!!!!!!)
LD 9
And Britain Elects now puts the LDs in third for the first time since 2012, due to the collapse of the UKIP vote.
If the Tories continue to surge in Scotland, the SNP may well get knocked off their perch.
Jezbollah
Member
Roberto Larcos
Member
Added to the OP
Cheers Dan! I'm hoping a little competition will help prevent election night from feeling like a funeral.
Linkstrikesback
Member
That seems a daft promise to make really. All it means in that situation is we would get a labour-con coalition and the lib Dems are shut out entirely.
I get why they'd make that promise, after how much the previous coalition left them in a bad light, but still...
Really grasping at straws to believe anything in the fucking Mail. They are mixing and matching different polls.
ukpollingreport http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9846
ask that question somewhere other than a left leaning forum where most posters are under 30. Assuming you really want a discussion and not just slag off your elders.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Labour plans to add four bank holidays?
Which one is Brexit Day?
Which one is Brexit Day?
Roberto Larcos
Member
They're just setting out their red line, which is Brexit.
From the email I received:
email said:
So they'd enter a coalition with Labour under anyone but Corbyn, and enter a coalition with May if she accepted a soft Brexit. Both demands are fair. Corbyn isn't able to lead his own party in Parliament - having more MPs doesn't change that. Membership to the single market is the current flagship Lib Dem policy, so it makes sense for them not to change their stance under that if May came knocking.
PJV3
Member
St Nigel day on 23rd April.
Imagine how frustrating it would be to be in a coalition with Corbyn, considering he doesn't even keep people in his own party in the loop much of the time.
Roberto Larcos
Member
I'd wager that's why it's an easy promise to make. Having more MPs doesn't mean Corbyn will be able to command those MPs. Require that Labour selects a new leader, then form a government.
What. The. Fucking. Hell.
I seriously cannot believe that in this day and age, with every challenge now facing the country, in the first week of campaigning Corbyn is promising 4 extra holidays across the country. It is beyond fucking stupid. Are we in some sort of reality tv show?
Huw_Dawson
Member
It is tone deaf, too. He talks about giving workers more time to spend with their families, but many workers are expected to work bank holidays...
It is a silly policy to announce early in the campaign.
PowderedToast
Junior Member
Fuck knows
Roberto Larcos
Member
It makes sense to have more bank holidays when you remember that the UK implementation of the Working Time Directive will likely be canned the week after we leave the EU.
I find UK politics threads on here are usually pretty mixed, with the majority probably being centre left. Certainly not a heavily biased leftist forum when discussing UK politics.
This is not a policy that you launch in the first week of an election. It is not a huge vote winner, there is no clear vision or policy behind it. It's a tiny detail policy that just shows how utterly lacking in leadership labour are.
My birthday is the 22nd, so it would suit me well, but I'm offended by how unbelievably dumb this policy is. And what poor politics it is.
Maybe it's an easier question to answer who isn't voting Conservative these days, as we will see in June.
ANuclearError
Member
Christ, those Scottish polls look mental, kinda worries me.
So ... left leaning, like I said
It isn't like I said we were a bunch of commies. The age thing skews it though. Pretty sick of hearing some of these slurs on older people (we just have to wait until they die off etc). If you are not old then you eventually will be, everyone gets a vote, that is how it works.You have to vote. Everyone tells you how important it is. Even if you are in a safe seat or hate all the parties. Becomes a case of voting for who you hate the least. They are all going to fuck it up, who is best placed to fuck up the least? I can see turn out being on the low side for sure.
When all the jobs are gone you will have plenty of time off
Kingpin Rogers
Member
Any useful links that could show me what I'd actually be voting for? I have no interest in politics and have pretty much ignored it but I guess I might as well try to be informed for this upcoming election.
All I know is my brother said to vote Corbyn and as far as I know he's popular with the younger generation so he's probably the right choice.
All I know is my brother said to vote Corbyn and as far as I know he's popular with the younger generation so he's probably the right choice.
So ... left leaning, like I said
The older you are, the more short-sighted you can afford to be, because you will have less time to reap the long-term consequences of your actions.
Donald Trump and the baby boomer-dominated Republican party's views on climate change being a good example of this.
4 extra would bring us in line with the G20 average.
People arguing against extra holidays, seen it all now.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Since St Andrews day is already a public holiday in Scotland (and, I think, St Patrick's in NI), he's giving four extra holidays to England and Wales, but only three to Scotland and NI.
That'll go down a treat, eh?
PJV3
Member
That's May's Tory Britain for you.
There is this:
https://uk.isidewith.com/
It's not really the best, though, and you would be best to research each party just a little bit. It also depends what constituency you actually live in too. If it is a marginal seat then you should go with whoever is second place if you feel strongly against the party that currently holds the seat.
I've never missed an opportunity to vote since I turned 18. I'm 24 now and I'm kind of disappointed in my generations lack of passion for/interest in being part of the political process, especially post-Referendum. We're going to be paying for these decisions for decades to come.
As someone whos going to vote LibDem, it seems a really easy promise to make. Everyone but everyone is expecting the Cons to just get a bigger margin in this election. That's why it was called when it was called, that's the aim behind doing it.
The Dems would have to make huge gains in order to be a kingmaker for Labour in this election, since Labour and the SNP refuse to work together and Labour don;t look like dropping Corbyn before the election.
And since nobody at all is expecting the Cons to lose any seats, the Dems wouldn't need to team up with them anyway.
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