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[Huw_Dawson]

Only the Liberal Democrats could get excited about council by-elections.

EDIT: Also, "in with a shot" at Whitney? 12-1 is not "in with a shot". Derived odds are 90% Con, 7% Lib Dem, 1% Lab/Green/UKIP each...

7% is still a pretty alright shot, actually. Considering we came fourth in 2015 and this is a safe Tory seat normally. Look at the odds for coming second - we're the only people with a remote chance of beating the Tories there, and Witney voted to remain, not leave.

Also there was a local council by-election not four miles from the constituency that swung to us via a big swing on Thursday.

And yeah, only the Lib Dems care about council by-elections. It's because we actually want to get things done rather than sit on bean bags and moan!

We are a party that works elections like a science, and we know what gets results - dedicated and experienced local teams who earn the trust of their electorate. Council elections are a chance to get out onto the doorstep and make our pitch. The fact that the strategy works, that we are seeing many people return to us and we are able to actually work for more people by winning seats means it's a great and exciting time to be a Lib Dem.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

That's some great science you've got there, losing 86% of your seats in the actual place that can do something in one election. I'm so glad that people have decided to return the Lib Dems to local councils, well known for their ability to implement anything anyone gives a shit about. Truly, the best party on waste management in all of Britain.

 

[CyclopsRock]

We are a party that works elections like a science, and we know what gets results

Edit: Sorry, didn't realise how big the resolution on my phone was! Fuck me.

 

[travisbickle]

Sure, I was being a bit rhetorical. But it actually is fairly significant that, yet again, the "hard left" gets accused of anti Semitism and now Momentum has actually suspended her. Why's it always the Jews?

I don't think there's anything wrong with Jewish people being in the Labour party, but it's because Jewish people like this woman from Momentum feel they have a duty to speak out about the situation in Gaza and the actions of Israel. I believe she has a right to do it but it's a difficult situation for Labour to allow Jewish people to speak at conferences about this.

 

[Quixzlizx]

I don't think there's anything wrong with Jewish people being in the Labour party, but it's because Jewish people like this woman from Momentum feel they have a duty to speak out about the situation in Gaza and the actions of Israel. I believe she has a right to do it but it's a difficult situation for Labour to allow Jewish people to speak at conferences about this.

Is this some sort of GAF meme template I've been missing out on?

 

[travisbickle]

Is this some sort of GAF meme template I've been missing out on?

Sorry, it's badly written.

Some members of the Jewish community are outspoken on how Israel treats Palestinians, so much so they push other issues of the Jewish community aside. The problem is if Labour are supposed to represent the British Jewish community should they allow someone who has that opinion to speak at a conference. I think she is allowed to speak because Corbyn is in support of Palestinians, and we're in a "look she's Jewish" situation, but her biases are there for everyone to hear.

 

[Empty]

so the corbyn media operation is still absolutely pathetic

he has nothing to say about the tory conference at all. so many aspects to exploit as we hurtle to a mad hard brexit and it's just *crickets*.

 

[Kuros]

so the corbyn media operation is still absolutely pathetic

he has nothing to say about the tory conference at all. so many aspects to exploit as we hurtle to a mad hard brexit and it's just *crickets*.

Remember it's "not his job to hold the Torys to account" or some such.

 

[Quixzlizx]

Sorry, it's badly written.

Some members of the Jewish community are outspoken on how Israel treats Palestinians, so much so they push other issues of the Jewish community aside. The problem is if Labour are supposed to represent the British Jewish community should they allow someone who has that opinion to speak at a conference. I think she is allowed to speak because Corbyn is in support of Palestinians, and we're in a "look she's Jewish" situation, but her biases are there for everyone to hear.

OK, I understand what you're saying now.

I think it's OK to have anyone from any background speak as long as they don't start going off the rails and start ranting about Jews/Zionists instead of criticizing Israeli policy. That's the actual problem.

 

[jelly]

Diane Abbott, Shadow Home Secretary.

Not a great start.

 

[Saiyar]

Rumours going about that Corbyn has fired Milne.

 

[kharma45]

Diane Abbott, Shadow Home Secretary.

Not a great start.

Incredible hahaha

 

[CyclopsRock]

I've seen a few take downs of Corbyn's tweet. It's not exactly serious stuff, but it is quite funny how many things are wrong in just a single tweet:

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/784123563351633921

Edit: Also, a significant investigation has uncovered the following:

 

[Jackpot]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/07/fast-train-to-publication-too-fast

Here's an analysis of the investigation into the Traingate story. Doesn't change anything but if you wanted to know the nitty-gritty details behind it or wanted to confirm what you read when it happened it's worth a click.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Diane Abbott as Shadow Home Secretary. Absolutely ludicrous appointment.

I see Tom Watson is on Culture which makes some sense as he knows whats going on with tech and the arts. Still seems like more of a demotion mind for his "treachery".

Oh and Labour silent all week as the Tory Party read excerpts from Mein Kampf and announce some of the most ludicrous right wing bullshit its unbelievable. Opposition off to a brilliant start again.

 

[Maledict]

Why is he so ****ing incapable of even managing a reshuffle properly? Yet again he repeats the same mistakes as last time - draws it out over several days so the media is full of Labour in disarray stories, doesn't consult with key people so makes very bad decisions that piss people off, and and generally doesn't seem to actually know what he's doing until he does it.

You start a reshuffle when you know where you want everyone to go. It should be done and dusted in 24 hours. These repeated farces of ineptitude continue to show how unbelievably bad the man is at doing the damn job he clings to so much.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Any news about Milne since the rumours?

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

Any news about Milne since the rumours?

There's a piece in the latest private eye that says his year-long unpaid leave is coming to an end and he is expected back in his Guardian job sometime in October.

Maybe Alistair Campbell could take his place..... 😂

 

[Jackpot]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ffle-continues-labour-reshuffle-politics-live

Guardian/ICM poll gives Tories 17-point post-conference lead

Political parties normally expect a modest post-conference bounce in the polls (because, if they are half-competent at PR, they can generally create a large quantity of mostly favourable media coverage) but the Conservatives will be delighted with the latest findings from the regular Guardian/ICM poll. It gives them a 17-point lead.

Here are the new figures, and how they compare to the previous Guardian/ICM polling figures from early September, before the conference season started.

Conservatives: 43% (up 2)

Labour: 26% (down 2)

Ukip: 11% (down 2)

Lib Dems: 8% (down 1)

Greens: 6% (up 2)

The fieldwork was carried out from Friday to Sunday.

The 17-point lead is the joint second highest ever recorded for the Conservatives by ICM in its polling series going back to 1992. They only once got a higher lead (20 points in June 2008, when Gordon Brown was at his most unpopular) although in September and October 2009 they also had a 17-point lead in ICM polls. But Labour did have larger polling leads at various points in the Blair era.

At 26%, the Labour figure is only one point higher than their lowest rating in ICM polling - the 25% they hit in June 2008 and August 2009.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Just beat me to it Jackpot, absolutely brutal. It's true that parties tend to get a poll bounce post conference (except Labour didn't at all after their conference this year) but, for a party to have been in power for 6 years with the massive issues at the moment to be 17 points ahead should seriously wake Labour up. But it won't.

Edit: Just to put things into perspective, if there was an election tomorrow with those poll numbers, remember before boundary changes, the tories would have a majority (according to electoral calculus) of 114.

 

[Hazzuh]

Meh, the only discussion worth having about Labour for the next 5 years is over/under on 150 seats.

 

[FlammableD]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ffle-continues-labour-reshuffle-politics-live

 

[CyclopsRock]

Fuck me. Blair got 43% in 1997.

 

[Nicktendo86]

May is going to be under so much pressure to call an early election. I can totally see the argument of not wanting to add further uncertainty and it would delay the brexit negotiations but I don't know how much longer she can turn down getting her own mandate and an amost guaranteed 100+ seat majority.

 

[PJV3]

Labour are better off letting Corbyn face the Tory tidal wave until after the Brexit fallout settles, i don't think anyone could do much about it for now. There is still whatever is left of UKIP that could return to the party, we are on a right wing path and that is that for now..

 

[Maledict]

They don't care.

I think one thing that people underestimate in British politics is how people factor competence into their decisions. The fact that their policies were riven with racism and xenophobia doesnt matter when compared to the fact they actually look and talk like a government. They have policies and detail.

Labour doesn't. In no way do they act like a government in waiting. And for some people, that matters a lot - we prioritise competence more than other countries I feel. And not only do Labour not look like a potential government, they don't *want* to look like one - and that attitude sinks through.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Hit the nail on the head there Maledict.

 

[Kuros]

May is going to be under so much pressure to call an early election. I can totally see the argument of not wanting to add further uncertainty and it would delay the brexit negotiations but I don't know how much longer she can turn down getting her own mandate and an amost guaranteed 100+ seat majority.

She'll wait for the boundary changes to go through first.

 

[Nicktendo86]

She'll wait for the boundary changes to go through first.

Possibly. I suppose, unlike when Brown came in and got his bounce, there isn't really any realistic possibility that the opposition is going to dramatically get it's act in order so she isn't in a massive rush.

 

[Kuros]

Possibly. I suppose, unlike when Brown came in and got his bounce, there isn't really any realistic possibility that the opposition is going to dramatically get it's act in order so she isn't in a massive rush.

A mauling at the ballot box might actually do Labour a favour. As Jezza would surely then have to go.

/lol

 

[D4Danger]

They don't care.

I think one thing that people underestimate in British politics is how people factor competence into their decisions. The fact that their policies were riven with racism and xenophobia doesnt matter when compared to the fact they actually look and talk like a government. They have policies and detail.

Labour doesn't. In no way do they act like a government in waiting. And for some people, that matters a lot - we prioritise competence more than other countries I feel. And not only do Labour not look like a potential government, they don't *want* to look like one - and that attitude sinks through.

That's a good point. Labour have stalled since the EU vote because the PLP thought it would be a good idea to spend those months fighting Corbyn instead of the Tories. That turned out to be a total waste of time as many predicted and now everyone is worse off.

 

[Nicktendo86]

When you look at the data in more detail it looks even worse for Labour than the headline figures, they are behind with every social class. Even the traditional working class base are leaving the party.

If UKIP were any sort of proper party they would be poised to take seats all over the north of England.

 

[disco]

They don't care.

I think one thing that people underestimate in British politics is how people factor competence into their decisions. The fact that their policies were riven with racism and xenophobia doesnt matter when compared to the fact they actually look and talk like a government. They have policies and detail.

Labour doesn't. In no way do they act like a government in waiting. And for some people, that matters a lot - we prioritise competence more than other countries I feel. And not only do Labour not look like a potential government, they don't *want* to look like one - and that attitude sinks through.

Very true, and it's of course very close to the notion of Corbyn's ability to lead. I've heard many a taxi driver say "I like the guy, I could have a drink with 'im, but he just ain't like professional is'e?".

I think it's because of years of 'aspiration' having been planted in people's minds that they think they're better than their class so even if they're not wealthy, they think they're better than their 'flat' socio-economic description - they want to be professional, even if they aren't, they want competency, they want structure, even if it doesn't necessarily work out that well for them. As a deeply alienated professionalised removed post-Imperial economy, the UK is constantly teetering on the edge of mental instability. No good labour in those offices, no real connection to the living breathing ecosystem with that domesticity. Life is just one big waste of carbon emissions and the Tories (and the sadly defeated now Tory-voting electorate) will keep it that way for fear of a real radical change that would unravel the tragedy of modern life...

 

[Bleepey]

Pretty much.

 

[Agent Gibbs]

They don't care.

I think one thing that people underestimate in British politics is how people factor competence into their decisions. The fact that their policies were riven with racism and xenophobia doesnt matter when compared to the fact they actually look and talk like a government. They have policies and detail.

Labour doesn't. In no way do they act like a government in waiting. And for some people, that matters a lot - we prioritise competence more than other countries I feel. And not only do Labour not look like a potential government, they don't *want* to look like one - and that attitude sinks through.

Very True, I'm a centrist, and have thus far always voted Labour (even through Blair), my parents who are both in their 60's have voted labour their entire life and find themselves currently in a position where they feel Labour is so incompetent that despite less than favourable policies they should be voting Conservative (for a realistic prospect of government) or perhaps Lib Dem (who are as much of a shambles as Labour) - right now the only left wing party with competence is the SNP, but we're in England

More shockingly (to me) my Father in Law, ex hells angel, typical aging anarchist, staunch socialist views having always voted labour, says he cannot in good conscience vote Labour and has already decided to vote conservative unless Corbyn is replaced - he'd even have Blair back over him.

Competency really does go a long way! you can have the best ideas and policies in the world, but if you look like a group of school children playing office, you will not get anywhere

Either Labour leadership needs to change for a more moderate unifying presence or someone needs to slap some sense into Corbyn and his acolytes

 

[Bleepey]

The really scary part is the party of competency is the party that caused all this economic trouble and has it's finger on the trigger of doing worst. FML.

 

[WhateverItTakes]

I mean, what else can we do? Don't have any idea how Labour's planning to get people back on side, and the Lib Dem's are still being used as a punchline.

Hell even if it turned out Teresa liked to grab her subordinates by the nutsack I bet you the Conservatives would still be miles ahead in polling.

 

[HazySaiyan]

This whole thing is an absolute shambles. RIP the left having any influence in British politics for a generation

 

[PJV3]

Very True, I'm a centrist, and have thus far always voted Labour (even through Blair), my parents who are both in their 60's have voted labour their entire life and find themselves currently in a position where they feel Labour is so incompetent that despite less than favourable policies they should be voting Conservative (for a realistic prospect of government) or perhaps Lib Dem (who are as much of a shambles as Labour) - right now the only left wing party with competence is the SNP, but we're in England

More shockingly (to me) my Father in Law, ex hells angel, typical aging anarchist, staunch socialist views having always voted labour, says he cannot in good conscience vote Labour and has already decided to vote conservative unless Corbyn is replaced - he'd even have Blair back over him.

Competency really does go a long way! you can have the best ideas and policies in the world, but if you look like a group of school children playing office, you will not get anywhere

Either Labour leadership needs to change for a more moderate unifying presence or someone needs to slap some sense into Corbyn and his acolytes

I could understand people on the left worrying about Corbyn if he actually had a chance of winning an election, all people are doing is destroying the chance of a quick recovery when he goes.

You need to have enough MPs to find a good replacement, if the party doesn't deselect them first that is.

 

[Condom]

How can you be a staunch socialist but vote conservative. You'd be better of not voting at all.

 

[Chinner]

Labour needs to pretty much wait until they have failed in the next general election before starting over. It could have played out differently if they had waited before knocking out corbyn.

 

[BKK]

More shockingly (to me) my Father in Law, ex hells angel, typical aging anarchist, staunch socialist views having always voted labour, says he cannot in good conscience vote Labour and has already decided to vote conservative unless Corbyn is replaced - he'd even have Blair back over him.

Tony Blair won three general elections, one of the UK's most succesful PMs ever. it's not surprising that most would rather have him over Corbyn (who is vying with Michael Foot to be the most unpopular Labour leader ever). It's like the Labour Party never learnt from their success under Blair.

 

[Cromat]

The Tories lurch to the right is aimed at gobbling UKIP voters. Now that Brexit is a "done deal" (not really but whatever) and official Conservative policy, there is no real need for a separate right-wing eurosceptic party. By roughening up their rhetoric, the Tories can lure UKIP voters to jump ship, exactly like this poll shows. This are 5 million votes in traditionally Labour areas.

Labour... what can I say. At least they're building a movement!

 

[WhateverItTakes]

Tony Blair won three general elections, one of the UK's most succesful PMs ever. it's not surprising that most would rather have him over Corbyn (who is vying with Michael Foot to be the most unpopular Labour leader ever). It's like the Labour Party never learnt from their success under Blair.

Whenever I see Blair's name, I only think of:

Dude actually won. When's Jezza gonna show the savvy he needs to do that?

 

[°°ToMmY°°]

As an italian following briefly uk politics blair neved seemed to me such a bad prime minister. Even listening to his interviews he seemed like an intelligent person with his feet planted to the ground. Is it the same like here in italy where a left guy, if he steers too close to the centre or act with more of a realistic approach to problems, gets lambasted by the ideological left?

 

[Oregano]

As an italian following briefly uk politics blair neved seemed to me such a bad prime minister. Even listening to his interviews he seemed like an intelligent person with his feet planted to the ground. Is it the same like here in italy where a left guy, if he steers too close to the centre or act with more of a realistic approach to problems, gets lambasted by the ideological left?

There's an element of that but most of it is that he was directly complicit in lying to justify the war in Iraq.

 

[Kathian]

May is going to be under so much pressure to call an early election. I can totally see the argument of not wanting to add further uncertainty and it would delay the brexit negotiations but I don't know how much longer she can turn down getting her own mandate and an amost guaranteed 100+ seat majority.

She'll call one only once she's been able to influence local parties and get her people on the ballots. People don't seem to realise that if she calls one tomorrow she'll take a greater majority but it'll be from the Cameroon side of the party.

 

[D4Danger]

May isn't going to call an election. She was gifted an entire term with a majority.

if Brexit goes wrong she'll peace out like Cameron and leave the tyre fire to the next person.

 

[Coriolanus]

I don't quite see the point in calling it.
I mean, way things are going, and assuming Labour continues to crash and burn, why do it? You already got a majority. Way things are you already can do whatever you want. Use this time, then, when it is up, get an extension.

Can't quite see what they'd have to gain that would be worth calling it now. But then, i'm not as familiar with electoral rules there as many of you, and am limited to seeing it merely in terms of time.

 

[Acorn]

I don't quite see the point in calling it.
I mean, way things are going, and assuming Labour continues to crash and burn, why do it? You already got a majority. Way things are you already can do whatever you want. Use this time, then, when it is up, get an extension.

Can't quite see what they'd have to gain that would be worth calling it now. But then, i'm not as familiar with electoral rules there as many of you, and am limited to seeing it merely in terms of time.

Her majority is razor thin and she just pissed off most of the modernist Cameroon wing. Most of them are quiet for now but they won't be forever.