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[A Black Falcon]

Numbers? I don't know... It's more like random guesses that are probably wrong, really...

Wii: 2007 Wii sales = The number they can make - the number on boats coming over here.

DS: 7-8 million? DS sales will go up. Not at Japan levels yet (per capita), but better... Pokemon will push many of them...

GBA: 4 million. Now here is the hard one... will PSP pass the GBA? Pokemon DS and the lack of any new software might kill GBA sales... still though... 4 million more would be nice to get a nice round total for the GB+GBC+GBA sales. More realistically 2-3 million.

PSP: 2-3 million. It's got software, but not nearly as much as the DS, and the price (hardware and software) is too high.

PS2: Almost as well as it did this year, probably... I forget how well that was... even better if Sony dropes the price, but they probably won't, in order to make up for some of the PS3 losses.

PS3: Half the number of Wiis sold. They will do much better than that if there is a big price cut, but with the losses they are already incurring on the thing...

X360: Well, but not quite as well as the Wii... 4-5 million more?

 

[Prine]

The only thing I know for sure, is that the Wii is going to blow away everyones expectations for this year

I've been on GAF for 5 years now... and you guys say this every year

 

[AniHawk]

I've been on GAF for 5 years now... and you guys say this every year with every Nintendo home console.

This time it'll really actually happen for reals.

 

[ZeoVGM]

You guys say this every year with every Nintendo home console.

Welp, most "uh, what?" reply of the week goes to you.

Really? People say that -every year- with every Nintendo home console?

All four of them, eh?

EDIT: You edited it twice to save yourself. Nice. But you do know that "the past 5 years" only refers to.. one console of theirs right?

 

[Deku]

Maybe he meant the DS too which had a slow start in the states but is about to destroy all humans errr portables errr consoles in 2007.

 

[Prine]

I remember the whole "when Mario Sunshine comes out", then "when metriod Prime comes out", then "when zleda comes out", then "when Pokemon comes out", "When the Wii comes out its going to outsell 360 during holidays" then "Zelda will obliterate GoW".. etc

i guess we'll see. Should make things more interesting if it does

 

[AniHawk]

Well I don't think many people thought Zelda would outsell Gears in the holidays, but rather that it would in its lifetime, considering HUGE western attach rate, two systems, and a decent boost from Japan.

 

[Insane Metal]

Predictions:

DS 7.7 million
Wii 5.0 million
X360 4.1million
PS2 3.9 million
PSP 2.8 million
PS3 2.5 million
GBA 1.9 million

You may want to put a deadline for predictions before the January NPD comes out.

I agree with these numbers

 

[donny2112]

If the CODE tags ever get fixed, this will look right.

Amateurs with the required seven predictions:

                                                      Next-Gen  
                   PS2  GBA  NDS  PSP  360  PS3  WII  Consoles  XBX  GCN     Total
Branduil           3.9  2.8  7.8  2.5  4.6  3.1  5.9    13.6    0.1  0.4     31.1
duderon            3.9  1.9  7.7  2.8  4.1  2.5  5.0    11.6                 27.9
Busaiku            4.0  1.6  7.7  2.2  4.3  3.1  4.5    11.9    0.1  0.8     28.3
AniHawk            4.0  2.0  7.5  3.5  4.5  3.0  4.0    11.5                 28.5
Forgotten Ancient  2.0  2.5  7.0  2.8  6.6  3.0  6.0    15.6    0.0  0.0     29.9
donny2112          4.1  2.4  7.0  2.5  6.0  3.8  6.5    16.3    0.0  0.4     32.7
NomarTyme          5.3  2.5  6.7  3.0  4.5  4.0  5.0    13.5                 31.0
«þ»                3.7  2.0  6.9  3.0  4.6  3.3  4.3    12.2    0.1  0.4     28.3
mylilbuddy         3.9  1.8  7.0  2.2  4.0  3.3  4.2    11.5    0.0  0.5     26.9
starship           4.0  2.0  7.8  3.0  4.5  4.5  5.5    14.5    0.0  0.2     31.5
LiquidMamba        4.0  2.5  7.0  2.8  4.3  3.8  4.5    12.6                 28.9
doicare            4.0  2.0  8.0  3.0  4.0  4.0  5.0    13.0                 30.0
jarrod             5.8  2.9  8.8  3.6  4.7  3.5  5.4    13.6                 34.7
Frankfurter        3.5  2.0  8.0  2.5  4.0  4.5  4.0    12.5                 28.5
bycha              4.0  2.5  7.5  2.8  5.8  4.5  6.0    16.3                 33.0
Heidir             4.0  2.0  7.0  4.0  4.5  3.5  5.5    13.5                 30.5
jj984jj            5.0  2.5  7.5  2.5  5.5  4.0  5.0    14.5                 32.0
BuzzJive           3.0  2.8  6.6  2.6  4.4  2.4  4.6    11.4    0.1  0.4     26.9
the thoroughbred   3.0  2.0  9.0  2.5  4.5  3.0  4.0    11.5                 28.0
Bungalow Bob       3.9  2.5  8.5  2.5  4.5  3.8  5.0    13.3                 30.7
                                       
Average            4.0  2.3  7.6  2.8  4.7  3.5  5.0    13.2    0.1  0.4     30.2

Amateurs missing some of the required seven predictions:

                                                      Next-Gen  
                   PS2  GBA  NDS  PSP  360  PS3  WII  Consoles
Stopsign                     7.0  2.6  4.6  3.8  4.2    12.6
VALIS                                  4.5  4.0  4.5    13.0
argon                        7.0  3.0  5.0  3.0  5.0    13.0
ivysaur12                    7.5  2.0  4.0  3.0  4.5    11.5
suffah                       8.0  3.0  4.3  3.5  4.5    12.3
S8 RoXoRz                             12.5  6.0  9.0    27.5
909er                                  5.0  2.5  4.5    12.0
GhaleonEB                              5.0  3.5  5.0    13.5
mintylurb                    7.9  2.5  5.8  4.1  6.2    16.1
UncleGuito                   7.2  3.5  6.0  3.8  6.5    16.3
underfooter                  7.0  3.0  5.0  3.0  5.0    13.0
Humphrey Bogart              8.0  2.5  6.0  4.5  7.0    17.5
professor_t                 10.0  4.0  4.7  3.2  3.9    11.8
nintendorly                  8.0  2.8  5.0  3.8  7.0    15.8
Scotch                  2.0  7.3  3.0  4.7  5.5  3.9    14.1
rs7k                                   5.5  4.0  6.0    15.5
castle007                    7.5  3.0  5.5  3.5  5.0    14.0
Wyndstryker                  6.7  2.6  4.8  2.6  4.9    12.3
dirtmonkey37       2.0       5.0       5.0  3.0  5.0    13.0
BSTF                         7.1  3.4  4.6  4.2  3.2    12.0
aloof                                  4.0 10.5  2.5    17.0
Javy007                     12.0  2.0  6.0  3.0  5.0    14.0
Jewbacca                               5.0  3.0  4.5    12.5
EverSoTrendy                10.0  1.5  8.0  2.0  7.0    17.0
jeremy1456                   7.0  2.5  4.3  3.0  4.5    11.8
unomas                                 4.7  3.6  4.4    12.7
Deku               5.0       8.0  3.3  6.0  3.3  4.5    13.8
quetz67            4.0       5.5  2.5  3.5  6.0  3.5    13.0
AlternativeUlster  3.8       7.3  2.8  4.9  3.2  6.2    14.3
imkoma             2.0       8.0  4.0  5.6  6.0  6.5    18.1
travisbickle                 6.0  3.0  3.6  5.0  4.5    13.1
MasterMFauli            4.0 10.0  1.5  5.5  2.5  7.0    15.0
Ike                          8.5  3.0  4.5  3.5  5.5    13.5
Ash Sparrow                            7.0  2.5  6.0    15.5
:enemyglider:                          4.3  2.8  3.8    10.9
devilscallmedad              8.0  2.5  5.2  4.0  4.5    13.7
                  
Average            3.4  3.0  7.8  2.8  5.3  3.8  5.1    14.2

For comparison:

Consoles sold in 2002: 13.8 million
Highest hardware (by my numbers) sold in a year:
1) 23.1 million (2006)
2) 20.7 million (2005)
3) 20.6 million (2002)


Of interest to me:

Average of Full: Wii > 360
Aveage of Partial: 360 > Wii

Also, total next-gen consoles is 1 million higher for the partials, and PS2 and GBA show substantial differences.

Regardless, everyone is counting on the total number of systems being sold to trounce last year's record number.

There sure are a lot of people predicting 15 million Wii/360/PS3 systems sold this year.

Most of them didn't do full predictions, though, so they don't count. Only three of the full predictions had over 15 million next-gen consoles (including me).


Edit:
Can someone do a fake analyst report using the average numbers from the full predictions? You can say it's from the GAF analyst group.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I haven't done US hardware predictions in a long time, and even then didn't try to go more than month-to-month. Seems like a bad idea to extrapolate too far ahead and look stupid later. But what the hell, let's get stupid. Should at least be interesting to myself to see how off I was in detail. I made these guesses by trying to find a base year and then modifying it. For example, to get Wii for 2007 I looked at GameCube in 2002 and made alterations like "Q1 and December won't be so shitty". Extra decimal place because I'm just that badass.

Wii: 4.50m
GBA: 1.95m
DS: 7.26m
PS2: 3.29m
PS3: 3.40m
PSP: 2.73m
X360: 4.09m

 

[GhaleonEB]

Since I've been called out and put on the "Incomplete" list, I suppose I'll amend my predictions. I stick to predicting consoles because I really don't pay attention to the handheld space, but here goes:

360: 5m
Wii: 5m
PS3: 3.5m
PS2: 5.5m
GBA: 2m
DS: 8.8m
PSP: 4.2m

Bold = added

 

[Earthstrike]

PS2 - 3.1 million
GBA - 1.8 million
DS - 7.3 million
PSP - 2.7 million
360 - 4.6 million
PS3 - 3.4 million
Wii - 5.2 million

 

[Mr.Potato Head]

DS - 6m
360 - 6m
Wii - 4m
PS3 - 3m
PSP - 5m

 

[cvxfreak]

I was just notified that I did best in the 2006 thread.

Don't think I'll be as lucky this year, but:

GC: 300,000
Xbox: 12,000
GBA: 2,000,000
PS2: 4,000,000

PS3: 3,200,000
360: 4,500,000
Wii: 5,000,000

DS: 8,000,000
PSP: 3,500,000

 

[Bo130]

DS - 6.1 million
360 - 5.0 million
Wii - 4.6 million
PS3 - 3.3 million
PS2 - 3.2 million
PSP - 3.0 million
GBA - 1.9 million

 

[Syringe]

I would say something like this...

DS: 7.5 Million (Unlike the competition, this one will sell strongly every month, even summer)
PSP: 2.5 Million (Castlevania and other retro game plus cheap PS2-conversions won't save PSP)

Wii: 5.5 Million (As with Nintendo DS, I think Wii will have a decent spring, summer and a really good fall)
PS3: 3.5 Million (I would almost double that number if Sony lowered the price, but $600... sorry PS3)
360: 5 Million (Will have a slow spring and a lousy summer, but the fall will be awsome. Also, there is so many good first party games coming out that it will create buzz everytime it's time for a new one. Even though they maybe aren't better than the PS3 and Wii first party titles, there is more of them).

PS2: 3 Million (The best budget console ever and it will continue to sell just like GBA did)
GBA: 1.5 Million (Still hot for kids, but when christmas arrives - not so much)
Gamecube: 0.3 (What Nintendo have in stock)
Xbox: 0.05 (All that is still unsold)

 

[MasterMFauli]

donny:

Add 4,5 million to PS2, please, then i have all 7 required predictions

 

[argon]

Here are my predictions, slightly updated.. with PS2, GBA, GCN and XBX included

DS - 7m
360 - 5m
Wii - 5m
PS3 - 3m
PSP - 2.5m

PS2 - 4m
GBA - 2m
GCN - 0.5m
XBX - 0.1m

 

[Ryudo]

The Wii needs some decent games if any of these numbers are going to ring true.

DS - 8million
Wii - 15million
PS3 - 1 million
360 - 1.5 million
PSP - 1.6 million
PS2 - 2 million
Xbox - .5 million

 

[AniHawk]

Shit. Ryudo's right. Everybody take off 3m from your Wii predictions, pronto.

 

[Ryudo]

Shit. Ryudo's right. Everybody take off 3m from your Wii predictions, pronto.

Defence system activated. I would buy you a beer, but you know.

 

[AniHawk]

Shit Ryudo. You need to take off like 12 million from your Wii prediction and add them to your Xbox predictions. It won't have any games for 200- well, hell. Ever.

 

[Ryudo]

Shit Ryudo. You need to take off like 12 million from your Wii prediction and add them to your Xbox predictions. It won't have any games for 200- well, hell. Ever.

Thats the spirit Aniwak, i think ?

 

[DefectiveReject]

DS - 7.2m
360 - 4.75m
Wii - 6m
PS3 - 3.5m
PSP - 2.2m

PS2 - 3.3m
GBA - 1.9m (aren't they stopping production?)
GCN - 0.5m
XBX - 0.09m

I think GC software will have a decent year this year too, with Wii helping it out

 

[thestopsign]

I've added the PS2 and GBA predictions into my first post.

 

[hadareud]

since everyone is doing it I'll have a guess too:

360 : 4.5m
wii : 4m
ps3 : 3m

ds: 6m
psp: 3m

 

[Deku]

Since I have also been listed as being tardy for listing 6 instead of 7 platforms here's my appended list.


NDS -8 million
X360 -6 million
PS2 - 5 million
Wii - 4.5 million
PSP - 3.3 million
PS3 - 3.3 million
GBA - 2.8 million

And Donny, OP made no mention of required 7 predictions and people are still listing the predictions for the platforms they think are most relevant. You might want to ask Stopsign to include a note to your competition rules. I didn't really see your post which was buried somewhere in the middle of a 100 post page.

Regardless, everyone is counting on the total number of systems being sold to trounce last year's record number.

In 2007 you have 2 mature platforms which should do well, 2 legacy platforms fading and 2 new platforms entering growth phase. I think my own PS2 numbers are optimistic, but I've made it so I'm stuck with it now. So the platforms moving up the product lifecyle curve outnumber those moving down, and I think the PS2/GBA will have respectable showings too.

If 2007 is flat from 2006 or falls, it would be a bad sign for the industry and Lapsed will write an essay explaining why.

 

[donny2112]

And Donny, OP made no mention of required 7 predictions and people are still listing the predictions for the platforms they think are most relevant. You might want to ask Stopsign to include a note to your competition rules. I didn't really see your post which was buried somewhere in the middle of a 100 post page.

It's only a requirement if I'm the one who does the tallying ( ), but do you want to update the original post, Stopsign? It's up to you.

Updated totals:

Amateurs with the required seven predictions:

                                                      Next-Gen  
                   PS2  GBA  NDS  PSP  360  PS3  WII  Consoles  XBX  GCN     Total
Branduil           3.9  2.8  7.8  2.5  4.6  3.1  5.9    13.6    0.1  0.4     31.1
duderon            3.9  1.9  7.7  2.8  4.1  2.5  5.0    11.6                 27.9
Busaiku            4.0  1.6  7.7  2.2  4.3  3.1  4.5    11.9    0.1  0.8     28.3
AniHawk            4.0  2.0  7.5  3.5  4.5  3.0  4.0    11.5                 28.5
Forgotten Ancient  2.0  2.5  7.0  2.8  6.6  3.0  6.0    15.6    0.0  0.0     29.9
donny2112          4.1  2.4  7.0  2.5  6.0  3.8  6.5    16.3    0.0  0.4     32.7
NomarTyme          5.3  2.5  6.7  3.0  4.5  4.0  5.0    13.5                 31.0
«þ»                3.7  2.0  6.9  3.0  4.6  3.3  4.3    12.2    0.1  0.4     28.3
mylilbuddy         3.9  1.8  7.0  2.2  4.0  3.3  4.2    11.5    0.0  0.5     26.9
starship           4.0  2.0  7.8  3.0  4.5  4.5  5.5    14.5    0.0  0.2     31.5
LiquidMamba        4.0  2.5  7.0  2.8  4.3  3.8  4.5    12.6                 28.9
doicare            4.0  2.0  8.0  3.0  4.0  4.0  5.0    13.0                 30.0
jarrod             5.8  2.9  8.8  3.6  4.7  3.5  5.4    13.6                 34.7
Frankfurter        3.5  2.0  8.0  2.5  4.0  4.5  4.0    12.5                 28.5
bycha              4.0  2.5  7.5  2.8  5.8  4.5  6.0    16.3                 33.0
Heidir             4.0  2.0  7.0  4.0  4.5  3.5  5.5    13.5                 30.5
jj984jj            5.0  2.5  7.5  2.5  5.5  4.0  5.0    14.5                 32.0
BuzzJive           3.0  2.8  6.6  2.6  4.4  2.4  4.6    11.4    0.1  0.4     26.9
the thoroughbred   3.0  2.0  9.0  2.5  4.5  3.0  4.0    11.5                 28.0
Bungalow Bob       3.9  2.5  8.5  2.5  4.5  3.8  5.0    13.3                 30.7
JoshuaJSlone       3.3  2.0  7.3  2.7  4.1  3.4  4.5    12.0                 27.3
GhaleonEB          5.5  2.0  8.8  4.2  5.0  3.5  5.0    13.5                 34.0
Earthstrike        3.1  1.8  7.3  2.7  4.6  3.4  5.2    13.2                 28.1
cvxfreak           4.0  2.0  8.0  3.5  4.5  3.2  5.0    12.7    0.0  0.3     30.5
Bo130              3.2  1.9  6.1  3.5  5.0  3.3  4.6    12.9                 27.6
Syringe            3.0  1.5  7.5  2.5  5.0  3.5  5.5    14.0    0.1  0.3     28.9
MasterMFauli       4.5  4.0 10.0  1.5  5.5  2.5  7.0    15.0                 35.0
argon              4.0  2.0  7.0  2.5  5.0  3.0  5.0    13.0    0.1  0.5     29.1
DefectiveReject    3.3  1.9  7.2  2.2  4.8  3.5  6.0    14.3    0.1  0.5     29.5
Stopsign           2.5  1.3  7.0  2.6  4.6  3.8  4.2    12.6                 26.0
Deku               5.0  2.8  8.0  3.3  6.0  3.3  4.5    13.8                 32.9
                      
Average            3.9  2.2  7.6  2.8  4.8  3.5  5.0    13.3    0.1  0.4     29.9

Amateurs missing some of the required seven predictions:

                                                      Next-Gen  
                   PS2  GBA  NDS  PSP  360  PS3  WII  Consoles
VALIS                                  4.5  4.0  4.5    13.0
ivysaur12                    7.5  2.0  4.0  3.0  4.5    11.5
suffah                       8.0  3.0  4.3  3.5  4.5    12.3
S8 RoXoRz                             12.5  6.0  9.0    27.5
909er                                  5.0  2.5  4.5    12.0
mintylurb                    7.9  2.5  5.8  4.1  6.2    16.1
UncleGuito                   7.2  3.5  6.0  3.8  6.5    16.3
underfooter                  7.0  3.0  5.0  3.0  5.0    13.0
Humphrey Bogart              8.0  2.5  6.0  4.5  7.0    17.5
professor_t                 10.0  4.0  4.7  3.2  3.9    11.8
nintendorly                  8.0  2.8  5.0  3.8  7.0    15.8
Scotch                  2.0  7.3  3.0  4.7  5.5  3.9    14.1
rs7k                                   5.5  4.0  6.0    15.5
castle007                    7.5  3.0  5.5  3.5  5.0    14.0
Wyndstryker                  6.7  2.6  4.8  2.6  4.9    12.3
dirtmonkey37       2.0       5.0       5.0  3.0  5.0    13.0
BSTF                         7.1  3.4  4.6  4.2  3.2    12.0
aloof                                  4.0 10.5  2.5    17.0
Javy007                     12.0  2.0  6.0  3.0  5.0    14.0
Jewbacca                               5.0  3.0  4.5    12.5
EverSoTrendy                10.0  1.5  8.0  2.0  7.0    17.0
jeremy1456                   7.0  2.5  4.3  3.0  4.5    11.8
unomas                                 4.7  3.6  4.4    12.7
quetz67            4.0       5.5  2.5  3.5  6.0  3.5    13.0
AlternativeUlster  3.8       7.3  2.8  4.9  3.2  6.2    14.3
imkoma             2.0       8.0  4.0  5.6  6.0  6.5    18.1
travisbickle                 6.0  3.0  3.6  5.0  4.5    13.1
Ike                          8.5  3.0  4.5  3.5  5.5    13.5
Ash Sparrow                            7.0  2.5  6.0    15.5
:enemyglider:                          4.3  2.8  3.8    10.9
devilscallmedad              8.0  2.5  5.2  4.0  4.5    13.7
Mr.PotatoHead                6.0  5.0  6.0  3.0  4.0    13.0
Ryudo              2.0       8.0  1.6  1.5  1.0 15.0    17.5
hadareud                     6.0  3.0  4.5  3.0  4.0    11.5
                
Average            2.8  2.0  7.6  2.9  5.2  3.8  5.4    14.3

Ryudo's 15 million Wii prediction now makes the Wii > 360 in this group, too. :lol

Edit (June 21, 2007):
Pachter's annual predictions from here

2007
Wii 7.0M
NDS 6.0M
360 4.5M
PS3 4.5M
PS2 3.5M
PSP 3.4M
GBA 1.8M

2008
Wii 7.0M
PS3 6.0M
NDS 6.0M
360 5.0M
PSP 4.0M
PS2 2.5M
GBA 0.8M

Edit2 (January 11, 2008):
Final updating in preparation for the results after next week.

Professional

                                                      Next-Gen  
                   PS2  GBA  NDS  PSP  360  PS3  WII  Consoles  XBX  GCN     Total
Pachter            3.5  1.8  6.0  3.4  4.5  4.5  7.0    16.0                 30.7

Amateurs with the required seven predictions:

                                                      Next-Gen  
                   PS2  GBA  NDS  PSP  360  PS3  WII  Consoles  XBX  GCN     Total
Branduil           3.9  2.8  7.8  2.5  4.6  3.1  5.9    13.6    0.1  0.4     31.1
duderon            3.9  1.9  7.7  2.8  4.1  2.5  5.0    11.6                 27.9
Busaiku            4.0  1.6  7.7  2.2  4.3  3.1  4.5    11.9    0.1  0.8     28.3
AniHawk            4.0  2.0  7.5  3.5  4.5  3.0  4.0    11.5                 28.5
Forgotten Ancient  2.0  2.5  7.0  2.8  6.6  3.0  6.0    15.6    0.0  0.0     29.9
donny2112          4.1  2.4  7.0  2.5  6.0  3.8  6.5    16.3    0.0  0.4     32.7
NomarTyme          5.3  2.5  6.7  3.0  4.5  4.0  5.0    13.5                 31.0
«þ»                3.7  2.0  6.9  3.0  4.6  3.3  4.3    12.2    0.1  0.4     28.3
mylilbuddy         3.9  1.8  7.0  2.2  4.0  3.3  4.2    11.5    0.0  0.5     26.9
starship           4.0  2.0  7.8  3.0  4.5  4.5  5.5    14.5    0.0  0.2     31.5
LiquidMamba        4.0  2.5  7.0  2.8  4.3  3.8  4.5    12.6                 28.9
doicare            4.0  2.0  8.0  3.0  4.0  4.0  5.0    13.0                 30.0
jarrod             5.8  2.9  8.8  3.6  4.7  3.5  5.4    13.6                 34.7
Frankfurter        3.5  2.0  8.0  2.5  4.0  4.5  4.0    12.5                 28.5
bycha              4.0  2.5  7.5  2.8  5.8  4.5  6.0    16.3                 33.0
Heidir             4.0  2.0  7.0  4.0  4.5  3.5  5.5    13.5                 30.5
jj984jj            5.0  2.5  7.5  2.5  5.5  4.0  5.0    14.5                 32.0
BuzzJive           3.0  2.8  6.6  2.6  4.4  2.4  4.6    11.4    0.1  0.4     26.9
the thoroughbred   3.0  2.0  9.0  2.5  4.5  3.0  4.0    11.5                 28.0
Bungalow Bob       3.9  2.5  8.5  2.5  4.5  3.8  5.0    13.3                 30.7
JoshuaJSlone       3.3  2.0  7.3  2.7  4.1  3.4  4.5    12.0                 27.3
GhaleonEB          5.5  2.0  8.8  4.2  5.0  3.5  5.0    13.5                 34.0
Earthstrike        3.1  1.8  7.3  2.7  4.6  3.4  5.2    13.2                 28.1
cvxfreak           4.0  2.0  8.0  3.5  4.5  3.2  5.0    12.7    0.0  0.3     30.5
Bo130              3.2  1.9  6.1  3.5  5.0  3.3  4.6    12.9                 27.6
Syringe            3.0  1.5  7.5  2.5  5.0  3.5  5.5    14.0    0.1  0.3     28.9
MasterMFauli       4.5  4.0 10.0  1.5  5.5  2.5  7.0    15.0                 35.0
argon              4.0  2.0  7.0  2.5  5.0  3.0  5.0    13.0    0.1  0.5     29.1
DefectiveReject    3.3  1.9  7.2  2.2  4.8  3.5  6.0    14.3    0.1  0.5     29.5
Stopsign           2.5  1.3  7.0  2.6  4.6  3.8  4.2    12.6                 26.0
Deku               5.0  2.8  8.0  3.3  6.0  3.3  4.5    13.8                 32.9
farnham            6.0  3.0  3.5  4.5  5.0  5.0  2.0    12.0                 29.0
DarkMehm           4.2  2.3  7.2  2.7  5.7  3.9  6.1    15.7                 32.1
Barf_the_Mog       3.5  3.1  6.9  3.6  4.8  3.2  4.8    12.8                 29.9
DeaconKnowledge    5.3  4.8  8.0  4.6  5.0  4.0  6.6    15.6                 38.3
Nander             3.5  2.8  6.1  2.0  5.1  3.0  5.2    13.3                 27.7
CrisKre            2.2  2.9  7.2  3.2  4.0  3.4  5.2    12.6         0.3     28.4
Aadil              3.0  2.0  9.0  3.0  5.0  3.0  8.0    16.0    0.1  0.3     33.4
                      
Average            3.9  2.2  7.6  2.8  4.8  3.5  5.0    13.3    0.1  0.4     29.9

Amateurs missing some of the required seven predictions:

                                                      Next-Gen  
                   PS2  GBA  NDS  PSP  360  PS3  WII  Consoles
VALIS                                  4.5  4.0  4.5    13.0
ivysaur12                    7.5  2.0  4.0  3.0  4.5    11.5
suffah                       8.0  3.0  4.3  3.5  4.5    12.3
S8 RoXoRz                             12.5  6.0  9.0    27.5
909er                                  5.0  2.5  4.5    12.0
mintylurb                    7.9  2.5  5.8  4.1  6.2    16.1
UncleGuito                   7.2  3.5  6.0  3.8  6.5    16.3
underfooter                  7.0  3.0  5.0  3.0  5.0    13.0
Humphrey Bogart              8.0  2.5  6.0  4.5  7.0    17.5
professor_t                 10.0  4.0  4.7  3.2  3.9    11.8
nintendorly                  8.0  2.8  5.0  3.8  7.0    15.8
Scotch                  2.0  7.3  3.0  4.7  5.5  3.9    14.1
rs7k                                   5.5  4.0  6.0    15.5
castle007                    7.5  3.0  5.5  3.5  5.0    14.0
Wyndstryker                  6.7  2.6  4.8  2.6  4.9    12.3
dirtmonkey37       2.0       5.0       5.0  3.0  5.0    13.0
BSTF                         7.1  3.4  4.6  4.2  3.2    12.0
aloof                                  4.0 10.5  2.5    17.0
Javy007                     12.0  2.0  6.0  3.0  5.0    14.0
Jewbacca                               5.0  3.0  4.5    12.5
EverSoTrendy                10.0  1.5  8.0  2.0  7.0    17.0
jeremy1456                   7.0  2.5  4.3  3.0  4.5    11.8
unomas                                 4.7  3.6  4.4    12.7
quetz67            4.0       5.5  2.5  3.5  6.0  3.5    13.0
AlternativeUlster  3.8       7.3  2.8  4.9  3.2  6.2    14.3
imkoma             2.0       8.0  4.0  5.6  6.0  6.5    18.1
travisbickle                 6.0  3.0  3.6  5.0  4.5    13.1
Ike                          8.5  3.0  4.5  3.5  5.5    13.5
Ash Sparrow                            7.0  2.5  6.0    15.5
:enemyglider:                          4.3  2.8  3.8    10.9
devilscallmedad              8.0  2.5  5.2  4.0  4.5    13.7
Mr.PotatoHead                6.0  5.0  6.0  3.0  4.0    13.0
Ryudo              2.0       8.0  1.6  1.5  1.0 15.0    17.5
hadareud                     6.0  3.0  4.5  3.0  4.0    11.5
                
Average            2.8  2.0  7.6  2.9  5.2  3.8  5.4    14.3

 

[farnham]

DS: 3 to 4 million units because of pokemon
Wii : under 2 million units .. why..? the graphics are bad and people want graphics.. weak lineup and also the control scheme proved itself to be nothing more then gimmicky and niche..
PS3 : 5 million units.. the name sells.. also it has great games
X360 : 5 million units.. best lineup with Halo 3 and GTA 4
PSP: 4 to 5 million units .. Castlevania on PSP will drive millions of CV fans from DS to PSP
PS2 : 6 million units... still will be on top.. the game sales will decline a little bit though
GBA : 3 million units.. its dead now... kinda

 

[DarkMehm]

1. NDS - 7.2m
2. Wii - 6.1m
3. 360 - 5.7m
4. PS2 - 4.2m
5. PS3 - 3.9m
6. PSP - 2.7m
7. GBA - 2.3m

 

[donny2112]

DS: 3 to 4 million units because of pokemon

So Pokemon will drive millions of buyers away from the DS? :lol

Wii : under 2 million units .. why..? the graphics are bad and people want graphics.. weak lineup and also the control scheme proved itself to be nothing more then gimmicky and niche..

So the Xbox won last generation and the DS has died in the last year?

PS3 : 5 million units.. the name sells.. also it has great games

<Insert report #22 of PS3's sitting on shelves>

PSP: 4 to 5 million units .. Castlevania on PSP will drive millions of CV fans from DS to PSP

When were there millions of Castlevania fans on the DS? Quick! We need to let them know about the two Castlevania games on the system, so they can finally buy them!

PS2 : 6 million units... still will be on top.. the game sales will decline a little bit though

Biggest year for the PS2 since 2003, and "the game sales will decline a little bit"?


I know I should have just let this one go, but the Castlevania thing was just insane. :lol

 

[farnham]

So Pokemon will drive millions of buyers away from the DS? :lol



So the Xbox won last generation and the DS has died in the last year?



<Insert report #22 of PS3's sitting on shelves>



When were there millions of Castlevania fans on the DS? Quick! We need to let them know about the two Castlevania games on the system, so they can finally buy them!



Biggest year for the PS2 since 2003, and "the game sales will decline a little bit"?


I know I should have just let this one go, but the Castlevania thing was just insane. :lol

I tend to overrate sales of system i dont like and to underrate sales of systems i like..

to prevent future dissapointments you know

 

[Barf_the_Mog]

Wii - 4.8 million
Xbox360 - 4.8 million
PlayStation 3 - 3.2 million
PlayStation 2 - 3.5 million

GameBoy Advance - 3.1 million
Nintendo DS - 6.9 million
PSP - 3.6 million

 

[Ulairi]

I tend to overrate sales of system i dont like and to underrate sales of systems i like..

to prevent future dissapointments you know

joke account?

 

[farnham]

joke account?

no its not..

 

[Alcibiades]

the way the momentum is going, I'd say if Nintendo can win it big this year and establish themselves industry leader again:

X = Wii sales

.35X = 360 sales (Halo 3 will help at year end)

.15X = PS3 sales (Blu-ray will keep this thing alive, but a Japan situation isn't out of the question)

it's hard to predict hardware because it all depends on what each company can ship... Nintendo talks a good talk but NEVER delivers on hardware numbers, but as long as they can ship more than the other 2 systems, they'll be far ahead in the game...

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

In order of success:

DS - 8 million
Wii - 6.6 million
PS2 - 5.3 million
360 - 5 million
GBA - 4.8 million
PSP - 4.6 million
PS3 - 4 million

I expect the Wii to pass the 360 around august worldwide and never look back. It will take longer in America, maybe trickling into early next year. PS3 will lag far behind.

 

[Nander]

DS: 6.1m (will have a killer start with Pokemon, but 2007 will not be the big year for DS)
PSP: 2.0m (Castlevania X and homebrew will help move some PSPs)
GBA: 2.8m

Wii: 5.2m (could be a lot more, if the "Wii-effect" is permanent)
360: 5.1m (A lot of great titles are headed for 360 in 2007, including Halo 3)
PS3: 3.0m (2007 will not be PS3's year)
PS2: 3.5m (the budget alternative, with a great game library)

 

[CrisKre]

Wii: 5.2 mill
Ps3: 3.4 mill
360: 4 mill

Ds: 7.2 mill
GBA: 2.9 mill
PSP: 3.2 mill

GC: 0.3 mill
PS2: 2.2 mill

 

[Aadil]

PS2 - 3m
GBA - 2m
NDS - 9m
PSP - 3m
360 - 5m
PS3 - 3m
WII - 8m
XBX - 0.1m
GCN - 0.3m

TOTAL: 33.4m

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

PSP: 2.0m (Castlevania X and homebrew will help move some PSPs)

Homebrew now will have an effect? Homebrew was a mover even in 2005.

the way the momentum is going, I'd say if Nintendo can win it big this year and establish themselves industry leader again:

X = Wii sales

.35X = 360 sales (Halo 3 will help at year end)

.15X = PS3 sales (Blu-ray will keep this thing alive, but a Japan situation isn't out of the question)

Geez. :lol Even if something like a full half of produced Wii's went to the US, that'd make for numbers like 7 million Wii, 2.5M X360, and 1M PS3.

 

[donny2112]

The results are in! I kept out the GBA, for now, since we don't have the full year's worth of data for it. I'll add it back in if we can get the Q4/Annual total for the GBA.

Note: I rounded everything to one decimal place before figuring out the diffs. Also, I calculated diffs for amateurs with full predictions, the professional, and the four users who predicted all the systems except the GBA. I only ranked the amateurs with full predictions, though.

First the professional:

Pachter - 6.1

That means he was 6.1 million off for the year. That would've tied him for 27th place. Our average was 4.4 million off for the year, which would've been 9th place. Here are the other results.

Amateurs with full predictions
1. cvxfreak - 2.8
2. Branduil - 3
3. Heidir - 3.5
4. duderon - 3.8
5. Bungalow Bob - 4
6. AniHawk - 4.1
7. jarrod - 4.2
8. starship - 4.3
9. doicare - 4.6
9. Barf_the_Mog - 4.6
11. DeaconKnowledge - 4.7
12. GhaleonEB - 4.8
12. Aadil - 4.8
14. argon - 4.9
15. Busaiku - 5
15. DefectiveReject - 5
17. Earthstrike - 5.1
18. DarkMehm - 5.2
19. «þ» - 5.4
19. bycha - 5.4
19. Syringe - 5.4
22. the thoroughbred - 5.6
23. donny2112 - 5.7
24. LiquidMamba - 5.8
25. Deku - 5.9
26. MasterMFauli - 6
27. JoshuaJSlone - 6.1
28. CrisKre - 6.2
28. BuzzJive - 6.2
30. Bo130 - 6.3
31. mylilbuddy - 6.6
32. NomarTyme - 6.7
32. Nander - 6.7
34. jj984jj - 6.9
35. Frankfurter - 7.1
36. Forgotten Ancient - 7.2
37. Stopsign - 7.5
38. farnham - 14.8

Didn't predict GBA
AlternativeUlster - 3.4
imkoma - 7.3
quetz67 - 11.6
Ryudo - 18.1

Congratulations, cvxfreak! This is the second year in a row you've won! :lol

The only person to get the total hardware number correct (i.e. ignoring individual system diffs) was DarkMehm.

The 2008 thread should go up on Monday, January 21st and will go until January 31st.

 

[PantherLotus]

:lol :lol

this is a grave diggin i can approve of.

 

[Quazar]

:lol :lol

this is a grave diggin i can approve of.

:lol :lol Pretty much

 

[Pureauthor]

1. cvxfreak - 2.8

Nice one!

 

[Odysseus]

might as well put this here

2007 actuals vs. predictions, by system

System	Actual	NeoGAF	Off	Pachter	Off
NDS	8,500	7,590	910	6,000	2,500
Wii	6,290	5,273	1,017	7,000	710
360	4,620	4,971	351	4,500	120
PSP	3,820	2,888	932	3,400	420
PS2	3,970	3,717	253	3,500	470
PS3	2,560	3,626	1,066	4,500	1,940
Total	29,760	28,066	4,529	28,900	6,160
					
*All numbers expressed in thousands

as a group, we were closest on ps2 and 360. not so much on the rest. psp got no respect.

note that these averages include people that didn't predict every system.

...except for mine. my 100,000,000 ds number would skew the average quite a bit. my xbox prediction of 5 was probably spot on, though.

 

[Culex]

Clearly GAF just didn't think the Wii would sell that much or the PS3 so little.

Lesson learned: history does not always repeat itself.

 

[Bonfires Down]

Farnham :lol

 

[GhaleonEB]

360: ~5m
Wii: ~5m
PS3: ~3.5m

I think the 360 will fare better, epecially over the holiday, than last year. Wii will have slow sales in spring summer, then have Nintendo's usual bonanza in the fall when marquee titles launch. PS3 held back by price, competion.

Actual:

Wii: 6.3m - I didn't forsee the high demand in the traditionally slow months.
360: 4.6m - I assumed MS would price cut before August
PS3: 2.5m - I underestimated how much price would low sales

I wasn't off by huge margins, but there were some surprises.

12. GhaleonEB - 4.8

Not as bad as I assumed. :lol

Do we have a prediction thread for 2008 yet?

 

[Odysseus]

Clearly GAF just didn't think the Wii would sell that much or the PS3 so little.

Lesson learned: history does not always repeat itself.

i think that, on the whole, gaf was as optimistic on wii and as pessimistic on ps3 as you could get away with, in retrospect. very few thought wii would remain so popular all year long or that ps3 would struggle so much. it just hadn't set in completely by january.

it still hasn't set in for a few people.