Kotetsu534
Member
Time for the final Grand Slam of the year, and while Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams remain favourites for the title they both come in recovering from injuries and have been decidedly cagey in the pre-tournament press conferences. Roger Federer's break to let his knee properly recover from surgery means he misses the tournament for the first time since 1999, when he failed to qualify. Last year Djokovic beat Federer and a hostile crowd to win his third US Open title, while Roberta Vinci pulled off one of the biggest upsets ever to beat Serena in the semi-finals before her compatriot Flavia Pennetta won the final.
Here's a quick look at the draws and the bookies' favourites.
US Open Website. Has schedules, draws, etc., though I prefer to use Wikipedia to look up the draws.
Men's Draw:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_US_Open_–_Men's_Singles
Djokovic, Nadal, Raonic, Tsonga and Cilic all in the top half. Murray, Del Potro, Wawrinka, Nishikori, Thiem and Kyrgios all in the bottom.
Women's Draw:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_US_Open_–_Women's_Singles
Serena, Venus, Halep, Radwanska, Bouchard, Stosur all in the top half. Muguruza, Kerber, Puig, Keys, Konta, Kvitova all in the bottom.
Men's Favourites:
Novak Djokovic
Odds: 7/5
Still #1 by a country mile, still defending champ at three of four Slams, and still the title favourite, but the last couple of months have been tough for the Serb. He spoke about unspecified but now resolved 'private issues' that affected him during Wimbledon, and pulled out of Cincinnati with a wrist injury after losing to Del Potro in Rio. The good news he has drawn Jerzy Janowicz, in via protected ranking, who has only won two matches this year, in the first round. Second round will likely be his first serious test against Jiri Vesely, who beat him in Monte Carlo this year. Has made at least the SFs every year since 2007 (9 in a row, winning 3).
Andy Murray
Odds: 7/4
The form player of the past two months, winner at Wimbledon and the Olympics. Lost to Cilic in the Cincinnati final, when he was heard to shout "why am I even playing here?" during one of his matches, and he raised the question of tiredness himself in an interview. That said, he has a favourable draw - Lopez and Simon are his potential seeded opponents in the 3rd and 4th rounds, and he holds overwhelming head to heads against them. If he can avoid getting dragged into needless 5-setters as he did this year at the French and last year in New York against Adrian Mannarino, will go into any match as the favourite unless Djokovic is on the other side of the net. Worth remembering though, that he hasn't been past the QFs since he won in 2012.
Milos Raonic
Odds: 20/1
Best year of Milos' career, coming in off his first Slam final at Wimbledon, but has ran into a wall against the two best returners in the world - 0-7 against Murray and Djokovic this year. But the US Open does play a bit quicker than the other Slams, so perhaps he can turn that around here.
Juan Martin del Potro
Odds: 22/1
Probably the most dangerous wildcard in men's tennis history since Goran Ivanisevic himself. Thankfully for the draw, he landed in a fairly harmless spot (unless you're Dominic Thiem). If you didn't follow his charge through Djokovic and Nadal, his epic war of attrition with Murray, do you care about tennis? (Don't say "I was watching sports that should actually be in the Olympics.") 5-sets on a much quicker surface than the grit-laden courts in Rio, with a lighter ball (Rio used the Australian Open ball), will be a different test, but he did pull off one of the all-time great upsets here in 2009.
Marin Cilic
Odds: 25/1
Former champ with a huge serve and forehand combo. If he didn't lose his composure against Federer at Wimbledon, blowing a two sets to love lead, he might have already been to a Slam final this year, and he straight-setted Murray in Cincy. Will probably need Djokovic to be off his game though - he's en route to meet him in the QFs, and he has never beaten him.
Kei Nishikori
Odds: 25/1
Picked up a Bronze in Rio after a controversial time out between sets 2 and 3 against Nadal that upset the Spaniard. If he doesn't get injured - which is a big if - could have a real chance to go all the way. Has supreme timing off both wings, lightning quick footwork, but a lightweight, if precise, serve, and a questionable mentality in big matches when things start to turn against him. Usually ends up on the wrong end of a tussle against Murray or Djokovic if his body doesn't give out first, but remember 2014.
Rafael Nadal
Odds: 27/1
Came back from a wrist injury to win Gold in doubles in Rio, and was merely a couple of points away from a Silver (at least) in singles, showcaseing his indomitable spirit and sheer will to win. Then he completely fell apart in Cincy against Coric, his body uncooperative. Doesn't quite have the same belief in his whipped forehands as he once did, but tries to make up for it with improved angle and depth on his backhand. If he's fully recovered, will be a dangerous foe - worth keeping in mind that he won Monte Carlo and Barcelona this season - but suspicion is that his fitness isn't there.
Women's Draw:
Serena Williams
Odds: 13/8
Barely holding on to her #1 ranking, but still the clear best player in the world if she's at full health. Must reach the semi-finals to retain it, after which it would depend on how far Angelique Kerber could go (if they meet in the final, the #1 ranking will be on the line). She needs to hold it through this tournament to beat Steffi Graf's consecutive weeks at #1 record (she's already guaranteed to tie it). Her shoulder completely gave out on her against Elina Svitolina in Rio and there's plenty of rumours floating around that she's not serving freely in practice. Has a horrid first round against Ekaterina Makarova, an experienced Russian who beat her in the 2012 Australian Open. All eyes will be on that match.
Angelique Kerber
Odds: 8/1
Dogged, determined and supreme in defense, Angie Kerber has within one year gone from "consistent player" to one of the best in the world, one of only five players ever to have beaten Serena Williams in a Slam final (Venus, Stosur, Sharapova, Muguruza the others). Last year she went down to Azarenka in a magnificent third round match, for my money the best of the women's tournament (even is Serena vs. Vinci was more memorable). She's even been within one match of the #1 ranking. Unfortunately, she was a spent force and lost to Karolina Pliskova in the Cincy final, her second tough loss in as many weeks - she was Monica Puig's final victim in her unlikely charge for glory in Rio. Shouldn't be too troubled on her road through to the second week, thanks to a soft draw (watch as she loses in round 1 now). Her Slam results this year read: W, R1, RU.
Simona Halep
Odds: 10/1
Halep's had a stronger year, after a terrible start, than she's generally received credit for, winning in Madrid and Montreal, reaching QF at Wimbledon. But like all players without a Slam title, the question asked is "can you win one?", and so far she hasn't been able to, hasn't been all that close either since 2014 at Roland Garros. Landing away from Serena in this draw, coached by Darren Cahill, she should be able to at least make the final rounds. SF last year, the other player to lose at that stage.
Garbine Muguruza
Odds: 11/1
French Open champion, predicted by many to be the next dominant force in women's tennis with Azarenka pregnant and Sharapova suspended, but she hasn't done much since then. Bizarre collapses at Wimbledon and the Olympics - not losing, so much as hardly competing against players ranked well below her - have led many to wonder whether she's got 'it'. Has never been beyond the second round at the US Open, but if she's fully present, that will surely change.
Madison Keys
Odds: 18/1
Has quietly began to get it together over the past few months. Just missed out on a medal in Rio, losing to Kerber in the semis and Kvitova in the playoff match, and completely blew up against Halep in the Montreal final. But consider that she won Rome, made 4R and QF at the French and Wimbledon, then did well in Canada and the Olympics. Still needs to learn to remain patient, work openings and change direction when necessary, but she has extreme power from her serve, forehand and backhand that the great majority of players simply can't deal with. Her work with a full-time physio will hopefully help protect her from the many injuries she's been hit with in the past. Has a couple of tricky opponents early on though - Alison Riske can be troublesome on the wrong day, and Coco Vandeweghe, a potential R3 opponent, has the power to expose Keys' weaknesses on return and defense.
Petra Kvitova
Odds: 28/1
To be honest, she's has an awful season, and is mostly at odds this short because of her known ability to strike hot out of nowhere and run the table. Had a couple of good matches in New Haven last week, but then got beaten 1 and 1 by Radwanska in the semis, so who knows what to expect. If she makes the second week...
Agnieszka Radwanska
Odds: 33/1
Solid season, but nothing spectactular. Has never reached the QFs at the US Open, and while she is coming in off a strong win at New Haven last week, her shoulder is still troubling her and clearly hampering her already weak second serve. Soft draw for the first couple of rounds might buy her time to let it rest.
Monica Puig
Odds: 40/1
Has probably done more interviews and photo shoots in the past three weeks than in the rest of her career. Possible rematch with Muguruza in the third round could be very interesting. Can she back up her Olympic Gold with a good result at the US Open?
Order of Play:
http://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/schedule/index.html?promo=subnav
Matches to watch on Day 1:
Nadal v Istomin, 3rd on Ashe
Sock v Fritz, 3rd on Armstrong, not before 5:30 DST
Crawford v Bencic, 1st on Court 11
Kvitova v Ostapenko, 1st on Court 12
Townsend v Wozniacki, 1st on Grandstand
Isner v Tiafoe, 2nd on Granstand
Djokovic v Janowicz, 7pm DST
Brown v Raonic, Court 17, 7pm DST
Keys v Riske, after Djokovic.
Might edit in some pictures of the players later.
