US Supreme Court temporarily halts law requiring voters to present present photo IDs.

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Its fine because there is a check and a balance in place to make sure you are who you say you are. You have various things confirming your identity.

It is still a little iffy to me though. Like I mean what if you are using a fake name at the place you live and then use that utility bill to get in to vote? So still some holes in that system.

They should just make it very easy to get a photo ID pretty much. A Photo ID is the 100% guaranteed way to know if someone is who they say they are. Just eliminate some of the hurdles like time and costs and your good.
The thing is no one is gonna fucking do that just to get one vote in. We have enough trouble getting people to vote to begin with.

Photo ID's aren't 100% guaranteed either. Hundreds of thousands of teenagers across the country can attest to that.
 
Hmmm, I will need enlightenment here I think. I actually find it pretty odd that people like yourselves would allow your opinions to be swayed so easily. Some dude randomly grabs 1000 people out of everyone in this country and asks them questions and you then agree that everyone thinks the way those 1000 think?

Ok, you don't understand how statisics work and that's fine, but you do know there is more than one study on this?
 
Hmmm, I will need enlightenment here I think. I actually find it pretty odd that people like yourselves would allow your opinions to be swayed so easily. Some dude randomly grabs 1000 people out of everyone in this country and asks them questions and you then agree that everyone thinks the way those 1000 think?

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How can you seriously come into a political discussion like this and not know how basic polling works? These 100% accurate predictions were made based off the concept you think is "pretty odd".

Statistics is a real thing. Please look it up.
 
People that don't need to drive. And when people move, they usually don't bother to update the address on their ID. I've lived in multiple states for months at a time, becoming eligible to vote in 4-5 states besides my home state, but I never bothered to get a state ID since I can still drive on the basis of my home state ID. I don't think they would've accepted a different state's ID for voting if there were voter ID requirements.

This is completely baffling to me. Finland requires you to inform the magistrate within a month of you moving.
 
It's just hard for us Europeans to understand ye not needing id to vote. Hell here in northern Ireland you used to have to register every year to vote. But then some had the mantra of vote early vote often. Even the dead used to vote.
 
It's just hard for us Europeans to understand ye not needing id to vote. Hell here in northern Ireland you used to have to register every year to vote. But then some had the mantra of vote early vote often. Even the dead used to vote.

That's not done by in person voting fraud. That's done at the office of whomever counts the votes.

It's much more efficient to stuff 100 votes to the box during the count than hire someone to go to the voting both 100 times.
 
It's just hard for us Europeans to understand ye not needing id to vote. Hell here in northern Ireland you used to have to register every year to vote. But then some had the mantra of vote early vote often. Even the dead used to vote.

The 15th amendment to our constitution (of which there are only 27) was specifically added because Southern states basically put up every roadblock they possibly could to ensure that blacks and other minorites would not be able to vote. These roadblocks included reading tests and poll taxes. There is a history of voter suppression and attempts by racist individuals (usually in one party) to keep voter turnout low since blacks traditionally vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic party.

I understand that it is hard for you to comprehend, but we have a serious history of voter suppression in our country.

Watch the linked videos a few posts up. Some people are baldly admitting that the entire purpose of the Voter ID laws is to suppress voting.
 
Nate Silver

" 'I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil,'

'I was just frustrated with the analysis. ... I saw a lot of discussion about strategy that was not all that sophisticated, especially when it came to quantitative things like polls and demographics'"

Sounds like to me this guy shouldn't exactly be a roll model for polling considering he is a statistical analyst and thought the process being used was flawed. I'll have to read more about it though. Interesting stuff
 
Without an ID though how to you truthfully identify yourself?

How does the person checking me in know that I am who I say I am?
How do they know I'm not just making some name up and voting for the 15th time that day?

But why are you trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist? Voter fraud doesn't really happen. So why change the system?
 
I understand this but in Germany most people have their ID with them and it also costs you (around 28 €). You can't vote on anything without ID.
I carry my ID in my pocket every day (same for gf).
You don't have to carry it with you but when you reach age of 16 you need to have an ID or passport. It's law.

The amount of in person voting fraud between 2000 and 2012 was 10. Yes, in a country with 300 million people, 120 million votes cast in each presidential election, plus the midterm elections, plus all the state, county and city level elections during that 12 year time, there were only 10 cases of voter fraud.

Voter ID laws will disenfranchise an estimated 4 - 10 million voters, using the lower estimates of those without ID.

That law is a bunch of bullshit.

Voting should be the easiest process imaginable, and if you're going to enforce these laws, you better give out a free photo id to anyone registered.
 
Hmmm, I will need enlightenment here I think. I actually find it pretty odd that people like yourselves would allow your opinions to be swayed so easily. Some dude randomly grabs 1000 people out of everyone in this country and asks them questions and you then agree that everyone thinks the way those 1000 think?

Well, this is the whole idea of statistical sampling. As long as those 1000 represent a uniform sample of the population, you can draw very powerful conclusions. The point to be cautious about in surveys like this is not the size of the sample (1000 is plenty), but rather whether they are a uniform sample.

Here is a parallel example of sampling in action that you may find easier to reconcile:
A man is arrested for drunk driving. The doctor draws some blood and tests it. Based on the test, he says that the man's blood-alcohol content is over the legal limit. When the man goes to court he says "The test is invalid. The doctor only tested a small sample of my blood. You can't truly know the amount of alcohol without testing all of my blood!" If you were the judge would you buy that argument?
 
It's just hard for us Europeans to understand ye not needing id to vote. Hell here in northern Ireland you used to have to register every year to vote. But then some had the mantra of vote early vote often. Even the dead used to vote.

Yeah. I think the US is just about alone among democracies in the world in that we don't have a voter ID law. It's pretty embarrassing actually.
The easy solution is to have a National ID card. But nobody wants it.
 
Nate Silver





Sounds like to me this guy shouldn't exactly be a roll model for polling considering he is a statistical analyst and thought the process being used was flawed. I'll have to read more about it though. Interesting stuff
He might be talking about people dismissing certain polls as good or bad and instead being able to find relevant information in every poll.
 
Yeah. I think the US is just about alone among democracies in the world in that we don't have a voter ID law. It's pretty embarrassing actually.
The easy solution is to have a National ID card. But nobody wants it.

Denmark, Australia, and the United Kingdom, to name three other nations that don't require Voter ID.
 
Do Democrats really believe there is no truth at all to the Republican argument that undocumented workers/illegal citizens (who do not have the right to vote as far as I know) will vote for Democrats en masse and that could (probably already is) giving the Democratic party an unfair advantage in certain states? Seems to me that Dems politicize the issue saying Republicans just don't want poor, black, illegal whatever people to vote yet Republicans are raising a genuine concern regarding voter fraud. Of course, the issue becomes about class, race on the left and the entire subject can't be discussed rationally at that point.
 
Do Democrats really believe there is no truth at all to the Republican argument that undocumented workers/illegal citizens (who do not have the right to vote as far as I know) will vote for Democrats en masse and that could (probably already is) giving the Democratic party an unfair advantage in certain states? Seems to me that Dems politicize the issue saying Republicans just don't want poor, black, illegal whatever people to vote yet Republicans are raising a genuine concern regarding voter fraud. Of course, the issue becomes about class, race on the left and the entire subject can't be discussed rationally at that point.

Given that there is literally zero proof that this is happening, yes they do believe there is no truth to the claim.

Seriously, find a SHRED of evidence proving it. It doesn't exist. Keep in mind the Republicans have been beating this drum for years and been looking VERY intently at all the recent elections. They were not able to find ANYTHING to prove this massive conspiracy.
 
Do Democrats really believe there is no truth at all to the Republican argument that undocumented workers/illegal citizens (who do not have the right to vote as far as I know) will vote for Democrats en masse and that could (probably already is) giving the Democratic party an unfair advantage in certain states? Seems to me that Dems politicize the issue saying Republicans just don't want poor, black, illegal whatever people to vote yet Republicans are raising a genuine concern regarding voter fraud. Of course, the issue becomes about class, race on the left and the entire subject can't be discussed rationally at that point.

How many illegals vote and why would we use photo ID to prevent that?
 
Do Democrats really believe there is no truth at all to the Republican argument that undocumented workers/illegal citizens (who do not have the right to vote as far as I know) will vote for Democrats en masse and that could (probably already is) giving the Democratic party an unfair advantage in certain states? Seems to me that Dems politicize the issue saying Republicans just don't want poor, black, illegal whatever people to vote yet Republicans are raising a genuine concern regarding voter fraud. Of course, the issue becomes about class, race on the left and the entire subject can't be discussed rationally at that point.

Again, 10 cases of in person voting fraud between 2000-2012.

Voting fraud does not occur this way.
 
Given that there is literally zero proof that this is happening, yes they do believe there is no truth to the claim.

Seriously, find a SHRED of evidence proving it. It doesn't exist. Keep in mind the Republicans have been beating this drum for years and been looking VERY intently at all the recent elections. They were not able to find ANYTHING to prove this massive conspiracy.

If it gives Democrats an advantage, why in the world would they want photo ID implemented?
 
If it gives Democrats an advantage, why in the world would they want photo ID implemented?

I literally do not know what you're saying here. What would give Democrats an advantage? Who is "they" in this sentence? Republicans?

How does any of this disprove my stating that Democrats do not believe in a conspiracy theory that has zero proof behind it?
 
Well, this is the whole idea of statistical sampling. As long as those 1000 represent a uniform sample of the population, you can draw very powerful conclusions. The point to be cautious about in surveys like this is not the size of the sample (1000 is plenty), but rather whether they are a uniform sample.

Here is a parallel example of sampling in action that you may find easier to reconcile:
A man is arrested for drunk driving. The doctor draws some blood and tests it. Based on the test, he says that the man's blood-alcohol content is over the legal limit. When the man goes to court he says "The test is invalid. The doctor only tested a small sample of my blood. You can't truly know the amount of alcohol without testing all of my blood!" If you were the judge would you buy that argument?

of course, but that comparison is about as bad as one can get. I see your point. It just doesn't fly when it comes to human opinions. A little more varied then blood in the blood stream.
 
Who in the hell is saying that Voter ID would give the advantage to the Democrats?

I literally do not know what you're saying here. What would give Democrats an advantage? Who is "they" in this sentence? Republicans?

How does any of this disprove my stating that Democrats do not believe in a conspiracy theory that has zero proof behind it?

I think he's saying that of course the democrats argue against voter ID laws because not having them is an advantage for them. So it's actually an even worse argument than you thought.
 
of course, but that comparison is about as bad as one can get. I see your point. It just doesn't fly when it comes to human opinions. A little more varied then blood in the blood stream.

If you're choosing to ignore a recognized field with actual scientific basis behind it, it would help if you could point out some actual proof to back your assertions up.

I think he's saying that of course the democrats argue against voter ID laws because not having them is an advantage for them. So it's actually an even worse argument than you thought.

So he's saying that the simple fact that Democrats are opposed to Voter ID proves they're committing widespread fraud, regardless of the fact that there is zero evidence of it happening (and especially during an era where Republicans are actively looking for it and unable to find anything to back their assertions)?

Jesus Christ. That's clearly tinfoil hat territory.
 
I literally do not know what you're saying here. What would give Democrats an advantage? Who is "they" in this sentence? Republicans?

How does any of this disprove my stating that Democrats do not believe in a conspiracy theory that has zero proof behind it?

Are undocumented/illegals allowed to vote?
 
You need to show IDs for alot of other things, don't really see why this is such an issue. But then again I don't live in that state so I don't know what constitutes a valid ID for voting or if it is absurdly difficult to obtain one.
 
Why do Republicans think making voting as hard as possible a good thing?
Do they really believe voter fraud is that rampant?

There was a the gentleman just a few months ago who flat out stated that it was a "partisan stunt" and a "violation of the separation of church & state" for Southern churches to promote more blacks to vote, and that he was only interested in seeing more 'educated' voters turn out to the polls.

I'm not surprised by the dissenters, they voted (successfully) to gut the Voting Rights Act...which was quickly followed by a bunch of similar ID laws/voting time restrictions in those states affected.

You need to show IDs for alot of other things, don't really see why this is such an issue. But then again I don't live in that state so I don't know what constitutes a valid ID for voting or if it is absurdly difficult to obtain one.

Poor voters who take public transportation to work are less likely to have ID or, just as importantly, non-expired ID. College students under 21 fall into this group as well.

They are also less likely to be able to take off work to reach polling places that are only accessible by car during regular business hours. Everyone knows this, which is why one party regularly fights for ID laws, restricted voting times, and restricted absentee ballots.
 
So how do they keep people from voting fraud without ID verification?


This is about photo ids. When you become a registered voter you need to use your voting registration card.

Since poor people are unlikely to drive cars and travel abroad it will be for practical reasons impossible for them to get picture IDs.
 
If the State want to require ID to vote, it should first made some kinds of Photo ID more readily available to everyone. That, they have not, prior to the implementation of the Voter ID Law or even now.
 
If the State want to require ID to vote, it should first made some kinds of Photo ID more readily available to everyone. That, they have not, prior to the implementation of the Voter ID Law or even now.

And the ID requirements set by these laws are always a jumbled mess of "Which ID counts"

Your driver's license from another state wont work, neither does your School ID to a state university.

But a hunting license does....

Or the DMV gets its working hours cut after they implement the law, and massive lines form for poeple trying to get IDs to vote.

etc etc

The list goes on.
 
This is about photo ids. When you become a registered voter you need to use your voting registration card.

Since poor people are unlikely to drive cars and travel abroad it will be for practical reasons impossible for them to get picture IDs.

You don't just need a picture ID to drive or travel. You need one to fulfill the I-9 requirements to legally work.
 
You don't just need a picture ID to drive or travel. You need one to fulfill the I-9 requirements to legally work.
Nope. You can satisfy that with a voter registration card and a social security card. And even a school ID works for I-9.
 
If you're choosing to ignore a recognized field with actual scientific basis behind it, it would help if you could point out some actual proof to back your assertions up.



So he's saying that the simple fact that Democrats are opposed to Voter ID proves they're committing widespread fraud, regardless of the fact that there is zero evidence of it happening (and especially during an era where Republicans are actively looking for it and unable to find anything to back their assertions)?

Jesus Christ. That's clearly tinfoil hat territory.

Proof about what? That polls are not always correct?

Hell just look at the majority of polls prior to the last 2 elections. And that was with a sample size that was FARRRR beyond any poll like the ones mentioned would use. And those were still off by a good clip. Noone expected the blowouts that occured because everyone was going off polling data that had been used till then. Was usually just a few percentage points away from each other, both times. Not the what, 6-7% it ended up being.
 
You don't just need a picture ID to drive or travel. You need one to fulfill the I-9 requirements to legally work.

For an I9 you can use class A or class B+C. If you use class B+C ID it is possible those IDs don't have your picture (e.g. the voter registration and social security card). Only with class A is it impossible to not have a picture attached to the card.
 
Never needed an ID to vote in any election here. (Australia) They just check your name off, if your name gets checked off more than once, shit goes down.
 
If Republicans want to require voters to have ID to vote, they should also issue everyone a picture ID for free that doesn't require citizens to spend a whole day to acquire one.

These types of laws are like a modern day writing test law >.>

I'm glad the Supreme court blocked it.

This. It's the only way it works. Even allow people to do it by mail - let them send in their own picture for all I care. The only way ID laws work is if no one has an excuse to not have one.
 
of course, but that comparison is about as bad as one can get. I see your point. It just doesn't fly when it comes to human opinions. A little more varied then blood in the blood stream.
would you like me to mathematically break down confidence intervals and required sample size for meaningful data?

take a stats class
 
ha ha. Hey man. I'm back, relaxed and.... damn... that's why I joined a country club. Wow. No tipping allowed either.
If 1 voter in the entire country votes illegally, it's still illegal. If 2 voters vote illegally, it's still illegal. If 3 voters vote illegally, it's still illegal and jeopardizes the validity of an election. 3 is my line in the sand.
Anyway, can I start by asking you a few questions first?
Why is the US exceptional in that it shouldn't require voter identification? For example, why does Canada? Why does Mexico? Why do most democracies require verification of identity?
If it's because of lack of ID, then isn't the solution to provide some sort of ID to low income people for free or extremely low cost? Would you support that?

Its also illegal to gerrymander and warp the election on a racial basis, which is what your team is doing. And has done for decades. A party that can only survive through massive scale, political voter fraud and racism.
 
This. It's the only way it works. Even allow people to do it by mail - let them send in their own picture for all I care. The only way ID laws work is if no one has an excuse to not have one.

Would you be opposed to using biometric identification?
That's probably an even better solution.

Its also illegal to gerrymander and warp the election on a racial basis, which is what your team is doing. And has done for decades. A party that can only survive through massive scale, political voter fraud and racism.
We have laws in this country for a reason. Anything illegal that is found, I support action against it. You sound a little angry. Probably a little jealous of my massage?
 
As has been said, voter fraud of that nature is a nonexistent problem.
Voter fraud is a nonexistent issue.
Virturally non-existant.

But this doesn't happen. It doesn't happen ever. I want to say that the state of Nebraska found a case of like a dozen possible fraudulent votes in a national election. Its not a problem, period
12 != 0. But you're correct, 12 also != "a problem."

It doesn't matter. Voting is right. That means there cannot be a prerequisite that you have to pay for anything to do it.
Do you really not see an issue with charging $10 (ignoring associated costs/barriers like having to get a copy of your birth cert. btw) to vote?
Conservatives / GOP want as few people to vote as possible, which is why they never seek to offer free IDs or some such when trying to pass these laws.
One of the early battles in this war went to the SCOTUS and they completely agreed. Since then, most (if not all) of the voter ID initiatives have added a method for getting a voter ID card for free. The Republicans aren't just moustache twirling villians, they are moustache twirling villians who can adapt.

Funny how the republicans don't have a problem with counting fraud, you know what "won" George Bush his election
Antiquated voting equipment. What does that have to do with this?

ha ha. Hey man. I'm back, relaxed and.... damn... that's why I joined a country club. Wow. No tipping allowed either.
If 1 voter in the entire country votes illegally, it's still illegal. If 2 voters vote illegally, it's still illegal. If 3 voters vote illegally, it's still illegal and jeopardizes the validity of an election. 3 is my line in the sand.
Even in the closest presidential election evar, 500 fraudulent votes wouldn't have changed the outcome. Your "line in the sand" wouldn't even budge the results of a survey of 1,000 randomly selected voters. How many minutes of your country club massage are you willing to give up to drive to 500+ polling locations?
 
of course, but that comparison is about as bad as one can get. I see your point. It just doesn't fly when it comes to human opinions. A little more varied then blood in the blood stream.

The point of the example is that it's not about the sample size, it's about the sample uniformity. The alcohol being tested in a BAC test is in the range of one tenth of one percent. Much smaller than the populations that are being studied in these polls we are discussing. Even though blood contains a lot of different stuff, it is not hard to get a uniform sample because of diffusion. Hence blood tests are very reliable. Focus on uniformity, not sample size.

Hell just look at the majority of polls prior to the last 2 elections. And that was with a sample size that was FARRRR beyond any poll like the ones mentioned would use. And those were still off by a good clip. Noone expected the blowouts that occured because everyone was going off polling data that had been used till then. Was usually just a few percentage points away from each other, both times. Not the what, 6-7% it ended up being.

The problem with those polls was not the sample size, it was the sample uniformity.
 
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