It'll be a while I think before we get a better idea of the impact. I know a lot of foreigners in Van in real estate (or that buy, invest, basically run Airbnbs full time, etc) and while they've basically all exited the market recently (as the Sept volume confirms) most are just taking a wait and see.... and for quite a few, they're basically still debating between Van and Beijing. Not very often I hear TO or US get mentioned unless they were previously already considering those places for geographical reasons pre-tax.
Also seems to mostly just worry condo investors, Airbnb managers, etc. Most of the homeowners I know, for the most part despite investment and the appreciation being big factors, ultimately still want to live and keep property here. Even those I've heard considering switching their condo investments or Airbnbs to Beijing still play to stay in Van at least a few months a year to keep their residence; most of friends whose parents who buy property here but make all their money in China, ultimately still plan to 'retire' here.
Other thing is that real buying power hasn't changed as dramatically. In fact, if you consider the fall in the loonie, the buying power for a lot of Chinese is still higher than before. Housing may be up, what, 15% YOY 13-14 and again 14-15 but then it's now -6% over 15-16 (Sept). So that small drop takes a bit out of the 15% tax. But so does the fact the buying power of the yuan is up over the last few years. It was, what, about 5.5 yet just two years ago. It's up 10-15% vs when a lot of people bought their properties at the start of the boom 1-2 years ago. So even though there's, say, a 15% tax now reducing buying power, the real buying power of their mainland-invested yuan is also about 10-15% vs when they bought before.
So in terms of yuan, things aren't that much more expensive than before. And it's still relatively cheap compared to the alternative in Beijing. Most of the conversations I've had where there is discussion about switching from Van to Beijing is actually not even about the price or tax -- it's about government regulation. Just the general mood of too much complicated and slow regulation. That and basically guessing whether Van is either a low return now vs Beijing, or if it's a low return but safe because the government in China may regulate even worse and crash Beijing far more.
