sonycowboy
Member
It will be out on Thursday.
Wedbush expects 13 titles over 100k vs only six last year. Put in your top hardware and software predictions.
Wedbush expects 13 titles over 100k vs only six last year. Put in your top hardware and software predictions.
June 2005 NPD Video Game Sales Preview
* We expect June U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after the market close on Thursday, July 21. We forecast sales of $400 million, up 5% over last year.
* We believe that investor expectations are low for industry sales growth this year, and think that expectations will change as the industry continues to deliver double-digit sales growth. We recommend that investors accumulate Activision, Atari, Electronic Arts, Majesco, THQ, and Take-Two shares.
* Activisions sales should be $20 million, down 54% over last year.
* Atari is expected to deliver $7 million in sales, down 73% over last year.
* We expect Electronic Arts sales to be $60 million, down 2% over last year.
*We expect Majesco sales to be $4 million, down 40% compared to last year.
* Midway sales are expected to come in at $11 million, down 8% from last year.
* We expect Take-Two to deliver $27 million in sales, up 57% over last year.
* THQs sales should be $30 million, up 11% over last year.
We expect NPD Funworld TRSTS U.S. retail video game console software sales data for the month of June (fiveweek period ending July 2, 2005) to be released on Thursday, July 21, after the market close. This later than usual release (which also affected the May data release) is due to technical process changes at NPD Funworld. In this note, we attempt to forecast the sales figures before they are released. Our forecast is based upon a combination of channel checks, company press releases and intuition, with the greatest dependence upon intuition. Our channel checks are conducted by visiting a very small slice of the over 25,000 retail stores that carry video games in the U.S. We note that for a given game, a difference of only one unit per store per week could result in a difference of 100,000 units in volume, or $5 million in retail sales for the month. Therefore, we caution readers to use our estimates as only one data point in a sea of information.
We expect June sales of $400 million (up 5% vs. June 2004s $380 million), due to contribution from a number of recent releases as well as continued sales strength from Sony PSP software. We note that last years comp benefited from the strong release of Spider-Man 2 to the tune of approximately $22 million, and we expect PSP
software sales to be approximately $22 million in June 2005.
In June, we expect continued strong sales of LucasArts Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (PS2, Xbox, GBA, DS), Nintendos Pokemon Emerald (GBA), and Take-Twos Midnight Club 3 DUB Edition (PS2, Xbox). The top new releases in June were Take-Twos Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (PC, Xbox) and Electronic Arts Medal of Honor: European Assault (PS2, Xbox, GC) and Battlefield 2 (PC). We note that there were 6 games that sold over 100,000 units in May, and we expect 13 in June (compared to 12 last year).
In 2004, ASPs held relatively steady, ending the full year down 1% ($30.76, compared to 2003s $31.12), while full year unit sales were up 9% (from 186 million to 203 million). For 2005, we anticipate that console and handheld ASPs will decline by 3.4% (to $29.73), reflecting a decline in current generation console game pricing partially offset by
significantly higher prices for new handheld software, and an increase in pricing for NFL games. We also expect unit sales to end the year up 13%. We forecast US console and PC software sales growth of 10% for 2005. ASPs year-todate through May are up 1% and unit sales are up 15%. For June, we expect unit sales to be up by 4% compared to last year, and we expect ASPs to increase slightly.
Activision
Releases during June: 6/27 Fantastic Four (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC).
We estimate that Activision generated $20 million in sales for the month (compared with $13 million last month and $43 million last June). We believe that sales were led by its new release Fantastic Four, which we estimate sold 75,000 units in its first four days of release. We believe Madagascar sold 100,000 units (on top of the 46,000 units sold last month). We expect that catalog titles Tony Hawk's Underground 2, Call of Duty, Spider-Man 2, Shrek 2, XMen: Legends, and Shark Tale also sold well. Notwithstanding our modest sell-through estimates for Fantastic Four and Madagascar, we note that Activision shipped over 1 million units of the latter (and we presume a similar amount of the former), giving us great confidence that the company will meet or exceed its guidance for the quarter.
Electronic Arts
Releases during June: 6/7 Medal of Honor: European Assault (PS2, Xbox, GC), 6/13 Batman Begins (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA), 6/13 Goldeneye (DS), 6/21 Battlefield 2 (PC).
We estimate that EA generated $60 million in sales for the month (compared with $37 million last month and $61 million last June). We expect sales to be led by Medal of Honor: European Assault, which we estimate sold 300,000 units. We estimate sales of Batman Begins at 250,000 units. We also expect continued strong sales of PSP titles along with James Bond, Harry Potter, Need For Speed Underground, Lord of the Rings and Medal of Honor, and its catalog of sports games. Should the company deliver results near our expectations for the month, its revenues would track at around $35 million below last years results for the quarter (comparing U.S. retail console software sales for both periods). Given that company revenue guidance is approximately $100 million lower than last years first quarter, we are confident that EA will meet expectations for the quarter.
Majesco Entertainment
Releases during June: 6/21 Psychonauts (PS2).
We estimate that Majesco generated $4 million in sales for the month (compared with $3 million last month and $7 million last June). Advent Rising was released last month, but this will be the first reporting month of data and we expect sales of 50,000 units. We believe that GBA Video products sold 40,000 units combined (compared with Mays
43,000 units and last Junes 260,000 units), along with catalog sales of BloodRayne and various GBA budget titles.
Take-Two Interactive
Releases during June: 6/6 Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (PC, Xbox), 6/28 Midnight Club 3 DUB Edition (PSP).
We estimate that Take-Two generated $27 million in sales for the month (compared with $19 million last month and $17 million last June). We believe that sales were led by its new release GTA San Andreas (Xbox), with an estimated 250,000 units sold, improving upon last Junes strong sales of Red Dead Revolver (which sold 140,000 units). We
expect continued strong sales of ESPN sports games along with catalog sales of Grand Theft Auto and Midnight Club.
THQ
Releases during June: 6/15 Juiced (PS2, Xbox, PC), 6/21 Destroy All Humans (PS2, Xbox).
We estimate that THQ generated $30 million in retail sales for the month (compared with $15 million last month and $27 million last June). We believe Juiced sold approximately 100,000 units, and expect sales of Destroy All Humans to exceed 150,000 units. We have consistently been skeptical about the prospects for the latter game, and we believe
that the companys NPD results will prove us wrong. We believe WWE, The Incredibles, SpongeBob SquarePants, and MX Unleashed led catalog sales. THQs guidance for the June quarter implies sell-through at the level we have forecast, and we are confident that the company will meet expectations.
Keep in mind, June is a 5 week month, thus if sales were at the same rate as in May, you'd see a 25% increase
ouble Pack heights, but IMO, it could be a good bit higher if Xbox fans were actually willing to wait.