Wedbush November NPD Preview is up and I still can't get it. Ubisoftologist??

S

sonycowboy

Member
Still having technicial difficulties getting this. If anybody else has access? :D

FYI, November NPD will be out this Thursday.
 
where's that guy you suckered into buying it last time (then it got posted like 2 minutes later by someone else?) :lol
 
Agent_smith.jpg


"You disappoint me..."
 
bitwise said:
where's that guy you suckered into buying it last time (then it got posted like 2 minutes later by someone else?) :lol
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That would be me. It was only 2 dollars, so it's not like it was a big deal.
:lol
 
Michael Pachter at Wedbush Morgan Securities offers his preview of video game sales in Nov 2004:

1) Overview

We forecast November sales of $980 million (up 28% vs. November 2003’s $764 million).

We expect Electronic Arts’ sales to be quite respectable in November, we note that its sales for the month are expected to be lower than last year, and we expect the company to finish second to Microsoft in market share.

We expect Take-Two to continue to show strong sell-through of Grand Theft Auto San Andreas, and expect sales for the company to continue to build in December.

We believe that recent share price appreciation for Activision and THQ is attributable to mutiple expansion for the group, and expect any potential weakness in ERTS shares due to lackluster November performance to negatively impact shares of these companies as well.

We do not expect significant market reaction for Atari or Midway when the NPD data is released.
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2) Video game sales in Nov

We expect NPD Funworld TRSTS U.S. retail video game console software sales data for the month of November (four-week period ending November 27, 2004) to be released on Thursday, December 9, after the market close...

November is typically the second strongest month of the year, with a significant number of games typically released for the holiday selling period in late October and throughout November. Many games were shifted from this holiday season in order to avoid a few big titles, with an estimated 136 SKUs released for consoles and handhelds during November, compared with 165 SKUs released last year. Notwithstanding the relatively low number of SKUs released, we forecast robust November sales of $980 million (up 28% vs. November 2003’s $764 million). Our forecast is highly leveraged to sell-through of the blockbusters Halo 2 (released November 9), which we believe generated $180 million in sales, and GTA: San Andreas (released October 26), which we believe generated $110 million in sales. Without contribution from these two games, November’s retail sales figures would be an estimated $690 million (or down approximately 10%), meaning that there was likely some cannibalization of other game sales attributable to the remarkable launches of these two titles.

Comparable sales for the last five months were up, with particularly strong growth the past two months. Sales in September were up 44% and in October up 35% compared to last year. We continue to be optimistic that strong holiday sales will allow the U.S. console software market to deliver 12% year-over-year growth (up from 5% in 2003). We note that year-to-date through October unit sales are up 12%, while ASPs have declined by only 1% (compared to our full-year forecast of a 6% decline). We expect ASPs to stay relatively flat over the remainder of the year, given the likelihood for strong sales of several full-priced blockbuster titles for the remainder of the year.

The U.S. hardware installed base is currently at 66 million current generation consoles (including the GBA) as of the end of October 2004 (up from 56 million at year end 2003) and we forecast growth to 77 million total consoles by the end of 2004, with a potential shortfall should Sony and Microsoft continue to experience supply problems. We expect console prices to remain stable through year-end (current U.S. prices are Nintendo GameCube $99, Microsoft Xbox $149, and Sony PS2 $149), with the next round of cuts likely early next year. We believe it likely that the next generation Xbox (“Xbox Next”?) will not be backward compatible , and expect a reduction in price for the current generation Xbox as soon as the Xbox Next is formally announced. We expect an announcement as early as the Consumer Electronics Show during the first week in January, so Microsoft may choose to discount its Xbox to $129 or lower at that time. Notwithstanding shortfalls of hardware supply, we have noted an increase in promotional activities (bundling of free games) with the Xbox and GC. We expect momentum in handhelds to continue with the price cut of the Nintendo GBA SP from $99 to $79 and the launch of the Nintendo’s DS at $149 on November 21.

In November, we expect sales to be dominated by Microsoft’s Halo 2 (Xbox), which we believe may set an all time record for most units sold in a single month (we estimate 3.6 million), as well as other top releases during the month including THQ’s WWE Smackdown vs Raw (PS2) and The Incredibles (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC), Nintendo’s Metroid Prime 2: Echoes (GC), Electronic Arts’ NFS Underground 2 (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, DS), and Atari’s Dragon Ball Z Budokai 3 (PS2). We also expect to see continued strong sales of Nintendo’s Pokemon Fire Red and Leaf Green (GBA), Electronic Arts’ NBA Live 2005 (PS2, Xbox, GC), and Take-Two’s GTA San Andreas (PS2). We note that there were 18 games that sold over 100,000 units in October, and we expect 34 in November (compared to 33 last year).
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Buyers of Xbox this holiday be a bit pissed if this comes to fruition:
expect a reduction in price for the current generation Xbox as soon as the Xbox Next is formally announced. We expect an announcement as early as the Consumer Electronics Show during the first week in January, so Microsoft may choose to discount its Xbox to $129 or lower at that time.
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$110 million for GTA = 10% increase over October = 2.2 million copies expected.

October sales:
--------------------
PS2 GRAND THEFT: ANDREAS $100,879,300 2,053,983
 
The following are the comments on the Nov sales performance of major publishers:

1) Activision
Releases during November: 11/9 Cabela's Big Game Hunter 2 (PS2, Xbox, GBA), 11/9 Lemony Snicket: A Series Of Unfortunate Events (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC), 11/16 Vampire: The Masquerade Bloodlines (PC), 11/16 Call of Duty: Finest Hour (PS2, Xbox, GC), 11/16 Spider-Man 2 (DS).

We estimate that Activision generated approximately $55 million in sales for the month (compared with $51 million last month and $71 million last November). We expect sales were led by Tony Hawk's Underground 2 which we believe sold 450,000 units combined in its second month (on top of the 423,000 units sold last month). We believe that Activision’s top release this month was Call of Duty, which we estimate sold 250,000 units combined.

We expect that catalog titles Spider-Man 2, Shrek 2, X-Men: Legends, and Shark Tale also sold well. There may be some limited upside to our estimates due to strong initial sell through of the Nintendo DS version of Spider-Man 2, as there was likely a high attach rate for sales of the hardware, which purportedly sold 500,000 units in its first week.
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2) Electronic Arts
Releases during November: 11/2 Lord of the Rings: Third Age (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA), 11/9 The Urbz: Sims in the City (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, DS), 11/15 Medal of Honor Pacific Assault (PC), 11/15 NFS Underground 2 (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC), 11/17 NCAA March Madness 2005 (PS2, Xbox), 11/17 Madden NFL 2005 (DS), 11/22 GoldenEye: Rogue Agent (PS2, Xbox, GC).

We estimate that EA generated $150 million in sales for the month (compared with $83 million last month and $172 million last November). We expect sales to be led by NFS Underground 2, which we estimate sold 800,000 units combined. We expect its other top releases this month, Lord of The Rings Third Age and GoldenEye, each sold a more modest 300,000 units combined. Due to recent price reductions, we expect Madden NFL 2005 and NBA Live to have sold well during the month, although we believe year-over year unit sales for both games were similar to last year in the face of competition from the ESPN-branded games. We expect NCAA March Madness to have sold a modest 75,000 units during the month. We expect to see continued strong sales of James Bond, Harry Potter, Need For Speed Underground, Lord of the Rings and Medal of Honor as well as from its catalog of sports games.
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3) Take-Two Interactive
Releases during November: 11/17 Dora The Explorer Super Star (GBA), 11/17 ESPN College Hoops 2K5 (PS2, Xbox).

We estimate that Take-Two generated $125 million in sales for the month (compared with $126 million last month and $44 million last November). We believe that sales of GTA San Andreas were again quite strong, with an estimated 2.2 million units sold in its second month of release (on top of the 2.1 million units sold last month). We expect continued strong sales of ESPN sports games: NFL 2K5, NBA 2K5 and NHL 2K5, and believe that each of these games sold a competitive number of units vis-à-vis their Electronic Arts counterparts. We believe that Red Dead Revolver, Grand Theft Auto, Max Payne, Midnight Club, and Conflict: Desert Storm led catalog sales.
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4) THQ
Releases during November: 11/1 The Polar Express (PS2, Xbox, GC, PC), 11/2 WWE Smackdown vs Raw (PS2), 11/9 Hot Wheels Stunt Track (PS2, Xbox, GC, PC).

We estimate that THQ generated $65 million in retail sales for the month (compared with $17 million last month and $56 million last November). We believe that sales were led by WWE Smackdown vs. Raw which we believe sold 300,000 units in its first month. We believe that The Incredibles and The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie each sold 250,000 units combined. Since both these games are tied with movie releases in November, we expect a significant up tick in sales from the minimal amounts reported last month. We expect continued strong sales of WWE, Nickelodeon, and Finding Nemo titles. We expect THQ to continue to benefit from strong Nintendo GBA SP sales for the rest of the year. We estimate that THQ had 50 titles sell over 10,000 units during the month, compared to 24 titles last month and 49 titles last November.
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We believe that sales of GTA San Andreas were again quite strong, with an estimated 2.2 million units sold in its second month of release (on top of the 2.1 million units sold last month).
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So, 4.3 million in a month and a few days. Wow, that's a lot. GTA:VC sold 3 million copies in the same time frame.

Very impressive Halo 2 numbers, too! Now who said the gaming will never be mainstream?;)
 
Market share estimation by Mr Pachter:

Nov 2004E Nov 2003A
ERTS 15.3% 22.5%
TTWO 12.8% 5.8%
THQI 6.6% 7.4%
ATVI 5.6% 9.2%
MWY 3.1% 1.0%
ATAR 2.2% 2.7%
 
jedimike said:
Holy Fuck! Halo2 sold more in one month than Halo did in 3 years... incredible.
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It's going to be a hell of a day :D

But, don't forget that Mr Pachter normally sucks at predicting individual skus. He's usually wayyy off. Sometimes too high, sometimes way too low.

Interestingly enough, he does pretty well at overall sales and with the breakdown by publishers.
 
So that would mean around one and a half mil for the rest of the world... I guess I thought it wasn't that popular outside the US.
 
I wonder how many people bought 2 copies of Halo 2. I saw people at my Target buying a copy of regular Halo 2 and CE. Dont know if they were buying another copy for a friend though, but it was interesting to see people buying each of one copy.
 
Redbeard said:
So that would mean around one and a half mil for the rest of the world... I guess I thought it wasn't that popular outside the US.
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True, though it did launch 2 days later in Europe. Isn't nearly 1/2 of the XBox install in the US?
 
GhaleonEB said:
True, though it did launch 2 days later in Europe. Isn't nearly 1/2 of the XBox install in the US?
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2/3rds.

15.5 million
--------------
10.5 million US
3.5 million UK
1.5 million Asia
 
Brainwashing completed succesfully. I think the only thing that can ever beat the Halo2 hype might be the PS3 hype.
 
Redbeard said:
So that would mean around one and a half mil for the rest of the world... I guess I thought it wasn't that popular outside the US.
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it hasnt been in Europe nearly as long, and probably has sold like crap in Japan. I would say MOST of that 1.5 million would have come from Europe, which isnt too bad at all.
 
In November, we expect sales to be dominated by Microsoft’s Halo 2 (Xbox), which we believe may set an all time record for most units sold in a single month (we estimate 3.6 million), as well as other top releases during the month including THQ’s WWE Smackdown vs Raw (PS2) and The Incredibles (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC), Nintendo’s Metroid Prime 2: Echoes (GC), Electronic Arts’ NFS Underground 2 (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, DS), and Atari’s Dragon Ball Z Budokai 3 (PS2). We also expect to see continued strong sales of Nintendo’s Pokemon Fire Red and Leaf Green (GBA), Electronic Arts’ NBA Live 2005 (PS2, Xbox, GC), and Take-Two’s GTA San Andreas (PS2). We note that there were 18 games that sold over 100,000 units in October, and we expect 34 in November (compared to 33 last year).
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WHERE'S MGS3 MOTHERFUCKERS!?!?!?!?

Also, Halo 2 selling 3.6million units in one month is fucking INSANE.
 
mumu said:
Brainwashing completed succesfully. I think the only thing that can ever beat the Halo2 hype might be the PS3 hype.
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Yah, Xbox 2 hype will be far greater than Halo 2. Afterall, its only a game (one of the best games, but still just a game)

Next gen hardware hype >>>>>>>>>>> software hype
 
Prine said:
Nah, Xbox 2 hype will be far greater than Halo 2. Afterall, its only a game (one of the best games, but still just a game)

Next gen hardware hype >>>>>>>>>>> software hype
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PS3 hype will crush Xenon hype like a cockroach. :D
 
I dont see anything EVER topping PS2 hype. Not even next gen systems. I mean, they actually had people believing and reporting that it was being used to control missiles with the Army using PS2 controllers to train soldiers :lol
 
Hype for the next gen systems isn't really comparable because none of them are going to sell 3.6 million in their 1st month.
 
PhatSaqs said:
I dont see anything EVER topping PS2 hype. Not even next gen systems. I mean, they actually had people believing and reporting that it was being used to control missiles with the Army using PS2 controllers to train soldiers :lol
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And let's not forget the "Emotion Engine is the greatest machine created by man since the printing press". Man, I'm still laughing at that one.
 
Chi-Town said:
Hype for the next gen systems isn't really comparable because none of them are going to sell 3.6 million in their 1st month.
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Hype isn't necessarily about sales, though, especially when most consoles would have a hard time meeting a 3.6 million production order for their first month of availability in one region.

I think overall, the PS2 was much more hyped than Halo 2.
 
Some playstation 2 hype:

http://www.hipinteractive.com/cms/content/Newsweek-PlayStation21.pdf

Part of the PlayStation's mystique is that it's much more than a game machine. Out of the box, PS2 is geared to play movie DVDs—just as mainstream consumers are considering switching from clunky VCRs to the dramatically enhanced digital alternative. And, of course, the PlayStation 2 will also spin your audio CDs. But the most significant aspect of the PS2 might be its ability to hook into the Internet, making it a "Trojan
horse" to bring online gaming, e-commerce, Web browsing, e-mail and downloading of music, software and video into the home. In 2001, Sony will sell a combination high-speed Internet connector and hard-disk drivethat is geared solely for high-speed connections. Previous attempts to merge the Net wi th game consoles have flopped, but Sony thinks it can buck the trend. "You can communicate to a new cybercity," gushes Ken Kutaragi, the visionary behind the PlayStation. "This will be the ideal home server. Did you see the movie 'The Matrix'? Same interface. Same concept. Starting from next year, you can jack into 'The Matrix'!"
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The secret is the Emotion Engine, a fast, high-powered chip set that is fine-tuned to generate polygons, the building blocks of 3-D graphics. While the original PlayStation could handle a mere 360,000 polygons per second, version 2 can spit out more than 20 million: it's a jump from "South Park" to "Toy Story." And when connected to a home-theater setup, Surround Sound will allow game designers to assault eardrums with style.
One action-horror game, Onimusha, was scored by a 203-piece orchestra.

"It's historic, a mass-market appliance that fundamentally changes society in the way the printing press did," says Trip Hawkins, founder of Electronic Arts and CEO of 3DO. "This is a new canvas for humanity that takes us back to our nature."
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next few years are going to be pretty exciting, it seems anyway..
 
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