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[Palmer_v1]

The votes should be accessible here:

http://rfnx.ddns.net/mafia/1141304.html

I'll link to this in post 3 as well, so you can always go there for the up to date votes.

 

[Septimus Prime]

So while still new to the game I have some input about the start. Soundtrack for my post.

So what do we know so far? Night passed and no one has been killed. This leaves us with two possibilities.

1) The mob/werewolf didn't make a vote.
- They might have done this to stir up turmoil or because they couldn't single out a good target at this point in the game.

2) They did vote on someone, but said the hit on said someone was blocked either because of immunity by role or some other role protecting the target.

If the second possibility did indeed happen, the scums must be pretty riled up because their target wasn't taken out. I say look at the most confused and aggressive villagers. The scums might try to take out their first target by lynching instead to eliminate whatever element that protected their first victim. Follow the votes.

I don't imagine they had a specific target, since they wouldn't have info to work with, either. Most likely, if they did attempt a kill, they targeted someone randomly. I do also think that option two is a lot more probable, since there isn't anything for them to gain by not getting what would essentially be a free kill right off the bat.

 

[Style]

The votes should be accessible here:

http://rfnx.ddns.net/mafia/1141304.html

I'll link to this in post 3 as well, so you can always go there for the up to date votes.

Thanks, that will come in pretty handy. ^-^

As for my own voting, I'll probably wait for the last moment or go no lynch on this day. I'm keeping an eye on you scums though. ( ≖_&#8790

 

[Septimus Prime]

The votes should be accessible here:

http://rfnx.ddns.net/mafia/1141304.html

I'll link to this in post 3 as well, so you can always go there for the up to date votes.

Looks like "darrly" got a vote. I'm pretty sure that's a mistyped Darryl.

 

[Style]

I don't imagine they had a specific target, since they wouldn't have info to work with, either. Most likely, if they did attempt a kill, they targeted someone randomly. I do also think that option two is a lot more probable, since there isn't anything for them to gain by not getting what would essentially be a free kill right off the bat.

Everyone seems to have an agenda to take Darryl out right off the bat because he's infamous. Seems weird that the scums had no info to go out from and didn't target him.

 

[Septimus Prime]

Everyone seems to have an agenda to take Darryl out right off the bat because he's infamous. Seems weird that the scums had no info to go out from and didn't target him.

Last time, he and I were both completed convinced that the other was scum. We both ended up being wrong: he was the cop, and I was an ordinary drone. That's why I'm not so quick to jump on this bandwagon right now but also won't yet follow up on his hunch, either.

 

[CornBurrito]

So while still new to the game I have some input about the start. Soundtrack for my post.

So what do we know so far? Night passed and no one has been killed. This leaves us with two possibilities.

1) The mob/werewolf didn't make a vote.
- They might have done this to stir up turmoil or because they couldn't single out a good target at this point in the game.

2) They did vote on someone, but said the hit on said someone was blocked either because of immunity by role or some other role protecting the target.

If the second possibility did indeed happen, the scums must be pretty riled up because their target wasn't taken out. I say look at the most confused and aggressive villagers. The scums might try to take out their first target by lynching instead to eliminate whatever element that protected their first victim. Follow the votes.

1)

Stirring up some turmoil may be a legit use of not killing, but honestly I think that's a bad move. Assuming mafia doesn't know all the town roles, they give a free night to investigative roles to do shit. That's a permanent one night advantage town now has over mafia. Granted this assumes mafia can't make bad decisions, but I don't think they made this one.

Meanwhile D1 is almost always a crapshoot for town. Even if someone had died we'd still be flying mostly blind.

I'd also like to criticize the idea that they didn't kill for lack of good targets. They don't need to actively work to hit PR. Killing literally any member of town is good for them, at all stages of the game*. That's how they win after all.

*Except maybe some odd end game scenarios where they might need to eliminate a specific PR to win.

 

[CornBurrito]

Everyone seems to have an agenda to take Darryl out right off the bat because he's infamous. Seems weird that the scums had no info to go out from and didn't target him.

I don't think it has a lot of value, but I love this sort of crap so I'd like to talk about likely targets.

I agree fully with Terrabyte that a veteran (player, not role) was targetted. It would be an absurdly dick move to target a new player on N0 before they can even post. Just really fucking rude. And I don't think anyone playing this game is that rude.

The only exception I can think of is if mafia is made up of entirely new players or something, or the kill decision was left up to a new player who didn't understand what a dick move targeting a fellow newbie would be.

Anyway working under this assumption the targets left are:
[-] Darryl
[m] RobotNinjaHornets
[m] ultron87
[m] MattyG
[f] StarSketch
[m] Septimus Prime
[m] QuantumBro
[m] Timeaisis
[m] GreatLord Tiger
[m] CornBurrito
[m] El Topo
[m] Terrabyte20xx
[m] Makai
[m] batsnacks
[m] cabot

Fairly sizable list.

Based on my own personal biases, If I were mafia I'd have gone after cabot. That's based on my own personal experience with the players. I've only played with Cabot, Terrabyte, El Topo, and Makai.

Obviously other players would have their own biases. And I truly believe that prior game biases are the KEY deciding factor in who was targeted by whom on N0.

 

[Makai]

Well, I like Darryl. As long as we're not so aggressive that we force somebody to roleclaim on Day 1, it's okay.

 

[Palmer_v1]

I think everyone has posted at least once since the day started, so no prodding to do.

 

[Makai]

If the second possibility did indeed happen, the scums must be pretty riled up because their target wasn't taken out. I say look at the most confused and aggressive villagers. The scums might try to take out their first target by lynching instead to eliminate whatever element that protected their first victim. Follow the votes.

Everyone seems to have an agenda to take Darryl out right off the bat because he's infamous. Seems weird that the scums had no info to go out from and didn't target him.

So this is what you are insinuating: Darryl voters are Werewolves who had their feathers ruffled last night and are trying to finish the job.

Here's the problem: Darryl ruffles everyone's feathers. Werewolves don't need to commit to killing someone unless they're an exposed power role.

 

[Xamtheking]

As a new player, I would have been fine dying N1

 

[Andodalf]

As a new player, I would have been fine dying N1

why? don't like your role, eh?

 

[Xamtheking]

why? don't like your role, eh?

I will take a knife for the good of the town
Also, it's Mafia, shit happens

 

[CornBurrito]

As a new player, I would have been fine dying N1

N1 is not quite N0. N0 would mean you don't even get to post. That'd just be an absurdly dick move on mafia's part.

 

[Makai]

VOTE: Darrly

Im basically aligning myself with flux, hope this doesn't bite me. Im still trying to find my footing here, everyone feels like they have ulterior motives. Ive read the first 15 some pages of the NX game, thats pretty much all I'm the mafia knowledge I have.

You get a pass, but starting now I will consider any misspelled votes as scumtells. The vote tracker demands precision, so double-check your votes. mfw someone submits a would-be tie-breaking vote at the last minute but it's misspelled.

 

[QuantumBro]

You get a pass, but starting now I will consider any misspelled votes as scumtells. The vote tracker demands precision, so double-check your votes. mfw someone submits a would-be tie-breaking vote at the last minute but it's misspelled.

In that situation, I'm sure Palmer would override the results of the vote tracker.

 

[Andodalf]

UNVOTE: Darrly


Yeah, I was too busy worrying about vote formatting to check spelling. Do misspelled votes not count?

 

[FluxWaveZ]

UNVOTE: Darrly


Yeah, I was too busy worrying about vote formatting to check spelling. Do misspelled votes not count?

I said this on the last page:

Aside: Make sure to properly write down the username of those you vote for, since I believe the mods are using a kind of software to compile them.

 

[Palmer_v1]

In that situation, I'm sure Palmer would override the results of the vote tracker.

Probably not. If it's an important vote, you better take the time to make sure it's accurate.

It's not like Aurabolas is in this game. No excuses.

 

[Andodalf]

I said this on the last page:

Sorry, I haven't been reading super steadily, I've been traveling. Apparently missed a couple posts.

 

[CornBurrito]

Probably not. If it's an important vote, you better take the time to make sure it's accurate.

It's not like Aurabolas is in this game. No excuses.

No editing posts Pamer.

 

[Palmer_v1]

Day 1 votes. 12 for majority.


septimus prime (0)
cabot 96 (158)

darryl (1)
robotninjahornets 99 (247)
quantumbro 153 (230)
fluxwavez 197
xamtheking 268 (289)

cabot (0)
terrabyte20xx 123 (260)

cornburrito (2)
makai 129
lollipop dave 175

rolanderson (0)
quantumbro 150 (153)

batsnacks (1)
cabot 158 (204)
quantumbro 230 (249)
el topo 257

fluxwavez (1)
darryl 162

robotninjahornets (1)
cabot 204

quantumbro (1)
robotninjahornets 247

andodalf (1)
quantumbro 249

darrly (0)
andodalf 259 (318)

timeaisis (1)
terrabyte20xx 260

 

[Palmer_v1]

No editing posts Pamer.

Who's Pamer?

 

[GreatLord Tiger]

Well I have had a long day today. I'm going to go through the thread again to see if anything pops out at me. For the time being I'm going to vote rolanderson because his first and only post so far is irking me a bit.

VOTE: Rolanderson

 

[YesNOnoNOYes]

So while still new to the game I have some input about the start. Soundtrack for my post.

So what do we know so far? Night passed and no one has been killed. This leaves us with two possibilities.

1) The mob/werewolf didn't make a vote.
- They might have done this to stir up turmoil or because they couldn't single out a good target at this point in the game.

2) They did vote on someone, but said the hit on said someone was blocked either because of immunity by role or some other role protecting the target.

If the second possibility did indeed happen, the scums must be pretty riled up because their target wasn't taken out. I say look at the most confused and aggressive villagers. The scums might try to take out their first target by lynching instead to eliminate whatever element that protected their first victim. Follow the votes.

NO EDITING POSTS >:O

RAWWWWWWWRRRRRRRRRRR

 

[cabot]

Based on my own personal biases, If I were mafia I'd have gone after cabot. That's based on my own personal experience with the players. I've only played with Cabot, Terrabyte, El Topo, and Makai.

Obviously other players would have their own biases. And I truly believe that prior game biases are the KEY deciding factor in who was targeted by whom on N0.

Your point here is valid and I agree, but fuck you, buddy.

HUFF: CornBurrito

 

[cabot]

I don't imagine they had a specific target, since they wouldn't have info to work with, either. Most likely, if they did attempt a kill, they targeted someone randomly. I do also think that option two is a lot more probable, since there isn't anything for them to gain by not getting what would essentially be a free kill right off the bat.

I know CB covered this, and I defer to his post for the intricate details, but I need to directly highlight your thought and tell you how wrong I think it is.

Your scenario (mafia randomly targeting) only really happens if the following two criteria are met:

1) The mafia team is composed of entirely new players only.
2) These new players have not read any of the past GAFia games.

That's such a long shot, it's not even worth considering.

I believe the opposite, a night start where you have no information available, either through discussion in the day phase or investigative roles, will result in probably the most meta-based target choice. I'd choose a player who I know can be an asset to town, and get rid of them as soon as possible, because the added luxury of a N0 is that you can't discern any real motive from the flip, because you're stabbing in the dark.

Now it's pretty likely a new player wasn't targeted, though not impossible.

tl;dr CB is on the right cards, Septimus is almost certainly wrong.



Tell me you've missed this, Septimus, buddy old pal.

 

[Sorian]

Probably not. If it's an important vote, you better take the time to make sure it's accurate.

It's not like Aurabolas is in this game. No excuses.

Who is Areolas?

 

[RobotNinjaHornets]

Ok cool, this thread didn't explode overnight.

Firstly: UNVOTE: QuantumBro, let's get the joke vote out of the way so no-one whines about it later

Secondly: Time to look over the thread! I'm actually gonna make notes this time round :O

 

[cabot]

doesn't the vote need to be on a new line?

RNH you pansy.

VOTE: Timeaisis

Time hasn't checked in for a while, who've you got your eyes on? Town/scum?

also awaiting batsnacks' town point thing he mentioned

 

[cabot]

also RNH I'm still waiting for you to give some feelings after I passed the baton to you.

 

[RobotNinjaHornets]

doesn't the vote need to be on a new line?

RNH you pansy.

VOTE: Timeaisis

Time hasn't checked in for a while, who've you got your eyes on? Town/scum?

also awaiting batsnacks' town point thing he mentioned

Does it? Shit.

UNVOTE: QuantumBro

also RNH I'm still waiting for you to give some feelings after I passed the baton to you.

I'm working on it. I got distracted by...something. I can't remember what. But I'm working on it.

 

[Sophia]

NO EDITING POSTS >:O

RAWWWWWWWRRRRRRRRRRR

Poor YNNY, before the game is done you'll be in such despair over all these edited posts. ;_;

 

[GreatLord Tiger]

I don't imagine they had a specific target, since they wouldn't have info to work with, either. Most likely, if they did attempt a kill, they targeted someone randomly. I do also think that option two is a lot more probable, since there isn't anything for them to gain by not getting what would essentially be a free kill right off the bat.

Basically CB and Cabot have covered everything about this post. I just don't see mafia picking at random. With a day start, you got the luxury of people posting, which when a person dies, you can go back see who voted them or got in a confrontation with them. D0 kill means their's no post trail and they get to kill a good town player, with most likely no repercussions.

On the No Kill I think their is two possibilities.
1.Power Role
While the odds aren't in their favor, it's still possible a role blocker/doc was able to get the save. Or, if their is a bullet proof, we just got lucky that they picked them.

2.They couldn't

It is possible that there are multiple killing roles but some may have limitations. In Town of Salem, the werewolf only kills on even Nights.

It could be similar to this. I mean they are a werewolf, maybe their wasn't a full moon.

 

[cabot]

It could be similar to this. I mean they are a werewolf, maybe their wasn't a full moon.

i think the werewolf is flavour alone, the logistics of a game of mafia this large that the mafia can only kill on certain nights just seems a bit crazy.

The game could last a hell of a lot longer than the other two.

I wouldn't take much stock in that theory.

 

[RobotNinjaHornets]

I'm on page 3 and have ~150 lines of notes.

I'm not sure I'll be able to keep this up.

 

[Timeaisis]

doesn't the vote need to be on a new line?

RNH you pansy.

VOTE: Timeaisis

Time hasn't checked in for a while, who've you got your eyes on? Town/scum?

also awaiting batsnacks' town point thing he mentioned

Here I am. Sorry, I was sick all yesterday and slept the entire time.

I know CB covered this, and I defer to his post for the intricate details, but I need to directly highlight your thought and tell you how wrong I think it is.

Your scenario (mafia randomly targeting) only really happens if the following two criteria are met:

1) The mafia team is composed of entirely new players only.
2) These new players have not read any of the past GAFia games.

That's such a long shot, it's not even worth considering.

I believe the opposite, a night start where you have no information available, either through discussion in the day phase or investigative roles, will result in probably the most meta-based target choice. I'd choose a player who I know can be an asset to town, and get rid of them as soon as possible, because the added luxury of a N0 is that you can't discern any real motive from the flip, because you're stabbing in the dark.

Oh, the definitely targeted a power player. Probably Darryl. Or Darrly. I don't think this information matters all that much, though. It's unlikely anyone with a power role used their ability on exactly the right person last night. But it's possible. I guess what I'm saying is that it definitely wasn't random, but for all intents and purposes, it was.

 

[Timeaisis]

I guess my point with all that is the person who was targeted and didn't die last night was probably bulletproof (or bite-proof?)

 

[RobotNinjaHornets]

OK. NOTES MADE. TIME TO COMPILE THEM INTO A POST.

People I have nothing on because they've said a sweet fuck all until now - Rolanderson, StarSketch and MattyG. They've posted but with kind of nothing posts (I do have one note for SS, but it's just saying that she wants to no lynch). It's still early though, so they might just haven't had much chance yet. Would definitely like to hear more from them before too long though. Batsnacks is almost in this list, but has said just enough for me to be alright with him for now.

People who have a good amount of notes and therefore are contributing something - Andodalf, cabot, CornBurrito, Darryl, Flux, Quantum and Terrabyte all have 5+ posts that I've saved links for in my notes. These guys are all on my good list for now, though I completely disagree with the reasoning behing Darryl's list (I always hang around for a new day unless I physically can't. Shit's exciting yo.)

Other people, who're special because they've said weird things:
Lollipop Dave - you voted against CB because he's willing to listen to people's arguments. This seems rly super weird. The entire game is about arguments. Whaa? There's another minor point, but I'm not going to mention it until later.
Xamtheking - Says he's suspicious of everyone. Then immediately after says he like ultron with no explanation. Explanation please. What's ultron done differently for you to not be suspicious of him?

Everyone else has contributed a bit, and I've taken some notes on what they've said, but it's not enough to think they're super involved and cool. Just "Eh, they're ok I guess".


Also that took too long I wanted to do some game programming today you fucks I hope you're happy :c

 

[batsnacks]

If mafia KP is blocked, are they given information about how it was blocked? e.g. do they know if it was a vest vs a doctor save? Cause if they have that information, and it was a vest, the bulletproof guy should claim cause mafia would already have that info and it can only help town.

Also it is instant majority lynch right?

 

[Sophia]

I guess my point with all that is the person who was targeted and didn't die last night was probably bulletproof (or bite-proof?)

The odds support this too, if I did my math right. With one doctor, there's a 1/22 chance of targeting the right person. That's only 4.5%.

If we make a few assumptions, specifically that there are two doctors and that they can't target the same person, the odds are still 2/22, or 9%.

Those are not particularly good odds, and in absence of any other information due it to being day 1, I agree that the target was probably bulletproof.

 

[ultron87]

Ruminating on what happened last night doesn't really accomplish anything. It's just a distraction and if we somehow figured out the specifics it probably only helps the wolves.

 

[CornBurrito]

At work. We have lots of time in the day left but I just want to air my current thoughts. I am behind voting Flux based on Daryls interactions. Now I won't be shocked if Flux ends up being not mafia, but if he does end up being mafia then I have a very good hunch we already know who the second is.

 

[CornBurrito]

The odds support this too, if I did my math right. With one doctor, there's a 1/22 chance of targeting the right person. That's only 4.5%.

If we make a few assumptions, specifically that there are two doctors and that they can't target the same person, the odds are still 2/22, or 9%.

Those are not particularly good odds, and in absence of any other information due it to being day 1, I agree that the target was probably bulletproof.

Eh this supposed that the targets were random. Did you rule out New players?

 

[batsnacks]

The odds support this too, if I did my math right. With one doctor, there's a 1/22 chance of targeting the right person. That's only 4.5%.

If we make a few assumptions, specifically that there are two doctors and that they can't target the same person, the odds are still 2/22, or 9%.

Those are not particularly good odds, and in absence of any other information due it to being day 1, I agree that the target was probably bulletproof.

With one bulletproof person, there's a 1/22 chance of mafia targeting them. That's only 4.5%. Same as one doctor.

I don't think you can make any assumptions about what happened N0 based on "odds" unless you somehow have more information I do. People that have more information than I do are probably mafia.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Xamtheking - Says he's suspicious of everyone. Then immediately after says he like ultron with no explanation. Explanation please. What's ultron done differently for you to not be suspicious of him?

I like this. Xamtheking, explain.

 

[Sophia]

Eh this supposed that the targets were random. Did you rule out New players?

Yeah, I did. I kept it simple based upon the fact that I'm not very good at math. ><

If we rule out new people but keep the assumptions the same, the odds become 1/15 (roughly 6.6%) and 2/15 (roughly 13.3%), which are still fairly low.

With one bulletproof person, there's a 1/22 chance of mafia targeting them. That's only 4.5%. Same as one doctor.

I don't think you can make any assumptions about what happened N0 based on "odds" unless you somehow have more information I do. People that have more information than I do are probably mafia.

Yeah, you're right. Once you start accounting for more and more factors, the odds get harder to calculate without making assumptions based on info none of us have.

 

[Sophia]

Ooops, sorry, meant to say that I didn't rule out new people. ><

I HATE MATH.

 

[batsnacks]

If we rule out new people but keep the assumptions the same, the odds become 1/15 (roughly 6.6%) and 2/15 (roughly 13.3%), which are still fairly low.

This reasoning adds the assumption that none of the new players had the protective role. These assumptions are really bizarre and make me wonder if you know who survived the kill last night.