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[Sophia]

This reasoning adds the assumption that none of the new players had the protective role. These assumptions are really bizarre and make me wonder if you know who survived the kill last night.

Sorry, I was just trying to be smarter than I actually was. ><

You're completely right. In retrospect, it doesn't make sense.

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

Hey Makai, I was looking over the vote count again and I got to wondering, why do you still have your vote on Corn?

 

[cabot]

At work. We have lots of time in the day left but I just want to air my current thoughts. I am behind voting Flux based on Daryls interactions. Now I won't be shocked if Flux ends up being not mafia, but if he does end up being mafia then I have a very good hunch we already know who the second is.

If we vote Flux and he flips town, what does that give us?

 

[FluxWaveZ]

If we vote Flux and he flips town, what does that give us?

I think he's saying that guarantees Darryl is a werewolf, which I do not agree with.

Again, people have been saying that Darryl's aggression is the way they always play, so it's not worth looking into that much. If we're both lynched and we both end up being town, we've messed up.

 

[cabot]

At work. We have lots of time in the day left but I just want to air my current thoughts. I am behind voting Flux based on Daryls interactions. Now I won't be shocked if Flux ends up being not mafia, but if he does end up being mafia then I have a very good hunch we already know who the second is.

If we vote Flux and he flips town, what does that give us?

I am the destroyer of worlds and I see everything in shades of mauve. Fear me like the sheep fear the wlves of my heart and loins

 

[cabot]

I have to apologise for that post. Dont leave the page open when you have friends over.

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

I have to apologise for that post. Dont leave the page open when you have friends over.

Hey friends of cabot, check to see if he's a wolf, and post yes if he is!

 

[Andodalf]

At work. We have lots of time in the day left but I just want to air my current thoughts. I am behind voting Flux based on Daryls interactions. Now I won't be shocked if Flux ends up being not mafia, but if he does end up being mafia then I have a very good hunch we already know who the second is.

I don't like the logic behind this, you could say the same thing for just about anybody. Especially if you're mafia.

"Hey vote this guy, I might be wrong but lets do it anyway, lol"

 

[Andodalf]

You here Darryl? you still feel that flux is scum?

 

[Andodalf]

Also, I'm new, care to explain why you won't say who your hunch is for? is the hunch just to help railroad Flux?

VOTE:CornBurrito

 

[Septimus Prime]

I know CB covered this, and I defer to his post for the intricate details, but I need to directly highlight your thought and tell you how wrong I think it is.

Your scenario (mafia randomly targeting) only really happens if the following two criteria are met:

1) The mafia team is composed of entirely new players only.
2) These new players have not read any of the past GAFia games.

That's such a long shot, it's not even worth considering.

I believe the opposite, a night start where you have no information available, either through discussion in the day phase or investigative roles, will result in probably the most meta-based target choice. I'd choose a player who I know can be an asset to town, and get rid of them as soon as possible, because the added luxury of a N0 is that you can't discern any real motive from the flip, because you're stabbing in the dark.

Now it's pretty likely a new player wasn't targeted, though not impossible.

tl;dr CB is on the right cards, Septimus is almost certainly wrong.



Tell me you've missed this, Septimus, buddy old pal.

Basically CB and Cabot have covered everything about this post. I just don't see mafia picking at random. With a day start, you got the luxury of people posting, which when a person dies, you can go back see who voted them or got in a confrontation with them. D0 kill means their's no post trail and they get to kill a good town player, with most likely no repercussions.

On the No Kill I think their is two possibilities.
1.Power Role
While the odds aren't in their favor, it's still possible a role blocker/doc was able to get the save. Or, if their is a bullet proof, we just got lucky that they picked them.

2.They couldn't

It could be similar to this. I mean they are a werewolf, maybe their wasn't a full moon.

I concede your points, but at the same time, if you also bring into the metagame that there are protector roles who would also play the same way, that could toss a wrench into your strategy.

Nonetheless, if that were the case, it would result in a no-kill, so that could very well be exactly what happened.

 

[Darryl]

Yes. Flux is scum. 90% positive. I couldn't personally ask for a better d1 target.

 

[Darryl]

Scum list
Xan
Ultron
Flux
RNH

Town:
TheGD

 

[Andodalf]

Yes. Flux is scum. 90% positive. I couldn't personally ask for a better d1 target.

damn, I guess I'll coincide this then. It defiantly seems like he's the one target that is most likely to get a majority vote.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Andodalf, there's something very strange about the way you post. cabot said something earlier which I agreed with:

Andodalf - has made some weird slips and said some things i find confusing, but it could be new guy jitters.

VOTE: Andodalf

 

[Andodalf]

voting on me after I was the only one who supported you? whateves. If i got lynched, my turning up town will only sign your death warrant.

 

[GreatLord Tiger]

damn, I guess I'll coincide this then. It defiantly seems like he's the one target that is most likely to get a majority vote.

Huh the votes are pretty spread out right now and he doesn't even have the majority vote at the moment. I find you linking yourself to Flux and defending him to be really strange.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

voting on me after I was the only one who supported you? whateves. If i got lynched, my turning up town will only sign your death warrant.

Let me ask you something: why did you supposedly support me?

 

[Andodalf]

Huh the votes are pretty spread out right now and he doesn't even have the majority vote at the moment. I find you linking yourself to Flux and defending him to be really strange.

I feel like I've been biased towards him because we both have the same noob sensibilities. Most votes out right now are pressure votes, and I think Flux is the only one who has real support behind him being scum. besides me.

 

[Andodalf]

Let me ask you something: why did you supposedly support me?

I feel like Darryl went against you for no reason, I liked your arguments. Now i'm differing to Darryl. If you turn up town he's an obvious choice for being scum. Corn too. I'm leaving my vote on him until he sheds some light on his hunch.

 

[CornBurrito]

If we vote Flux and he flips town, what does that give us?

I am the destroyer of worlds and I see everything in shades of mauve. Fear me like the sheep fear the wlves of my heart and loins

Actually I thought about this in the car while driving home. I had decided against voting Flux and instead wanted to directly vote for who the "second" was. Which was/is Andodalf. As we can recall, when Flux was under fire Andodalf defended him.

My reasoning is there are four scenarios:

1. Andodolf mafia, Flux mafia.

Mafia panicked and overdefended a fellow mafia.

2. Andodolf mafia, Flux town.

In which case Andodolf is attaching himself to someone he knows is town. That way if/when Flux dies, he can say "but I defended him why would I do that if mafia?"

3. Andodolf town, Flux mafia.

Poor Ando felt Darryl's attack was weak, defended Flux, but ended up being wrong for the right reasons.

4. Andodolf town, Flux town.

See above. But Ando ends up right for the right reasons.

I saw 4 as least likely, with 1, 2, and 3 as being more likely.

Except sadly I just refreshed the thread and it appears Flux is voting Andodolf. Unless Flux is using the advanced tactic of throwing a mafia teammate under the bus (seems premature for that) I think we can rule out scenario 1.

So now 2, 3, and 4 are likely.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

I feel like Darryl went against you for no reason, I liked your arguments. Now i'm differing to Darryl. If you turn up town he's an obvious choice for being scum. Corn too. I'm leaving my vote on him until he sheds some light on his hunch.

My position against Darryl was always diametrically opposed. What exactly has Darryl stated that has made you convinced of his argument?

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

Scum list
Xan
Ultron
Flux
RNH

Town:
TheGD

Who 's that? I don't think we have anyone with a name similar in this game...

 

[Andodalf]

My position against Darryl was always diametrically opposed. What exactly has Darryl stated that has made you convinced of his argument?

I'm not, but I see no way that I can defend you. I'm making note of my own deficiencies as a new player and as such I'm choosing to stop defending you. You will note I have note voted for you.

 

[Darryl]

I nix quantum bro up with thegoddamn. Whichever is in this game

 

[Darryl]

Put a reads list out flux

 

[FluxWaveZ]

I'm not, but I see no way that I can defend you. I'm making note of my own deficiencies as a new player and as such I'm choosing to stop defending you. You will note I have note voted for you.

I don't get it. Clearer question: Why have you stopped defending me? And the only reason you defended me in the first place is because we're both new players?

I nix quantum bro up with thegoddamn. Whichever is in this game

Darryl, you've repeatedly been mixing names up of those participating in this game. Any reason why?

 

[RobotNinjaHornets]

Oh god I've ended up in a crazy thread

*siiiiiigh*

Darryl, if you're 90% sure Flux is a wolf, can we please have some actual reasoning for it? Maybe? Is that too much to ask? It's pretty much entirely been "He's a wolf because I say so" so far.

 

[Darryl]

My phone is fucked up man. I broke it the other day. It has huge cracks. I'm typing really quick and fragmented. Nothing scummy about that.

 

[Andodalf]

I don't get it. Clearer question: Why have you stopped defending me? And the only reason you defended me in the first place is because we're both new players?

Not because we're both new, but because we're new we have similar sensibilities, those sensibilities have led me to align myself with you. And I've stopped because my only reason was that I liked your agreements, and felt Darryl was reaching. At this point I can't really argue against Darryl, He seems to be acting pro town. If anything I think you might both be town. But Darryl thinks your scum, and he has some clout.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

My phone is fucked up man. I broke it the other day. It has huge cracks. I'm typing really quick and fragmented. Nothing scummy about that.

Right...

Put a reads list out flux

Tell me what you think of Andodalf first.

 

[Darryl]

I'm not answering that question RNH. It's incredibly scummy. Are you daft? What evidence am I possibly going to have on day 1 that I would publicize? You role fisher.

 

[Andodalf]

Right...



Tell me what you think of Andodalf first.

Actually I thought about this in the car while driving home. I had decided against voting Flux and instead wanted to directly vote for who the "second" was. Which was/is Andodalf. As we can recall, when Flux was under fire Andodalf defended him.

My reasoning is there are four scenarios:

1. Andodolf mafia, Flux mafia.

Mafia panicked and overdefended a fellow mafia.

2. Andodolf mafia, Flux town.

In which case Andodolf is attaching himself to someone he knows is town. That way if/when Flux dies, he can say "but I defended him why would I do that if mafia?"

3. Andodolf town, Flux mafia.

Poor Ando felt Darryl's attack was weak, defended Flux, but ended up being wrong for the right reasons.

4. Andodolf town, Flux town.

See above. But Ando ends up right for the right reasons.

I saw 4 as least likely, with 1, 2, and 3 as being more likely.

Except sadly I just refreshed the thread and it appears Flux is voting Andodolf. Unless Flux is using the advanced tactic of throwing a mafia teammate under the bus (seems premature for that) I think we can rule out scenario 1.

So now 2, 3, and 4 are likely.

This read is pretty perfect. Me leaving you (which I did before this list) and You attacking me makes 3 look pretty convincing.

 

[Darryl]

He's a new player trying to find roots. Anyone deflecting obto him is red flag scum

 

[CornBurrito]

He's a new player trying to find roots. Anyone deflecting obto him is red flag scum

Unless I am mistaken, Flux is also a new player. Why extend the "just trying to find roots" courtesy to one but not the other?

 

[FluxWaveZ]

This read is pretty perfect. Me leaving you (which I did before this list) and You attacking me makes 3 look pretty convincing.

I didn't ask you or CornBurrito, I asked Darryl.

He's a new player trying to find roots. Anyone deflecting obto him is red flag scum

What?

Come on, other players. I can't be the only one who sees something wonky going on here, can I?

 

[batsnacks]

Yeah "because you're scum" isn't exactly a legitimate reason.

As for my no lynch comment- kinda hard to take a shot at someone when we have no info aside from a few assumptions that a roleblock went off / the mafia decided not to do anything for some bizarre reason. Again, though things might change in the remaining hours.

We're basically just shooting at random right now.

Hey everyone, if you're town and you roleblocked someone last night PLEASE CLAIM IMMEDIATELY! This is very important!

 

[Andodalf]

Hey everyone, if you're town and you roleblocked someone last night PLEASE CLAIM IMMEDIATELY! This is very important!

Why?

 

[Darryl]

Unless I am mistaken, Flux is also a new player. Why extend the "just trying to find roots" courtesy to one but not the other?

It's clear and has no idea what he's doing. Flux I wouldn't say the same

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

Hey everyone, if you're town and you roleblocked someone last night PLEASE CLAIM IMMEDIATELY! This is very important!

.../s?

 

[Darryl]

Everything Flux says reeks of scum. The stupid crowd appeals. Everything. How any of you chucklefucks thinks this guy has their interests in heart is way beyond me.

 

[batsnacks]

Why?

Cause Starsketch is the only person in the thread to mention a roleblock, and if a townie did roleblock someone last night there is a very good chance it was mafia... since no one died.

 

[Andodalf]

Corn can you please shed some light on the hunch?

 

[batsnacks]

***a wolf rather. If town roleblocked someone last night, it was probably a wolf, since no one died.

 

[Septimus Prime]

***a wolf rather. If town roleblocked someone last night, it was probably a wolf, since no one died.

But if they opted not to make a night kill, they would be baiting out a roleblocker right now. It's too risky.

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

***a wolf rather. If town roleblocked someone last night, it was probably a wolf, since no one died.

Um....

Speaking of, I'd like to talk game theory.

If you were a blocker and targeted someone N0, and then the next day there were 0 kills, would you role claim and basically sacrifice yourself to get an almost sure mafia lynch D1? Me personally? I'd probably do it.

In which case withholding a kill could be a legitimate play. But that's a gamble for mafia since it trades a kill on the hope that a roleblocker even exists. And it means the town power roles get a whole extra night to fool around with their abilities.

Funny thing about that...

This exact scenario happened in a GAF game at some point, and they didn't even block the scum.

You shut your goddamn mouth

Yeah... Not a good Idea.

 

[RobotNinjaHornets]

Well whatever. I've now made another section of my notes called "POSTS I DIDN'T MAKE". I may come back and post it later but I'm going to ride out the Darryl wave and see if he's actually got some plan and it's better to back off or if he is actually just being a shithead. We'll see ¯\_(&#12484_/¯

 

[batsnacks]

But if they opted not to make a night kill, they would be baiting out a roleblocker right now. It's too risky.

Mafia isn't going to opt not to make a night kill, night kills are the only way they can win.

 

[Timeaisis]

But if they opted not to make a night kill, they would be baiting out a roleblocker right now. It's too risky.

I can think of zero reasons why wolves would opt to not night kill.

 

[batsnacks]

Um....

Yeah... Not a good Idea.

Well I think it's a great and very logical idea. Much more logical than assuming mafia withheld kills to bait out roles they don't know exist.