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[Sawneeks]

Man, I'm so happy to be back at Hogwarts this year! And I see some familiar faces too! Oh boy, with that new Defense Against the Dark Arts professor and a promise of a Death Eater-free campus there is no way this year can be worse than last! Now all I have to do is-

wait a second, this isn't hogwarts. everything smells like cats and sadness.

where are the robes? the wands? the disproportionately large amount of owls??? and did that man just do a rather impressive back flip off a cliff??

what kind of muggle-hogwarts is this?????????

Spoiler

Hey guys! I'm still catching up and I hope to be all ready to go sometime tomorrow but until then I don't have much to really say. I've got some reads on folks but I'm only on Day 2 and they might change once I'm caught up. I'm heading out for the night so I will hopefully be back later tomorrow with some more posts.

 

[YesNOnoNOYes]

nooooo gerhardt ;____; not gerhardt!

 

[CzarTim]

MattyG and his mustaches...

 

[MattyG]

While the townsfolk prepared Gerhardt's exquisite body for burial, they discovered a will hidden deep in the crotch of the thong he'd been wearing;

REVEAL

Well folks, if you're reading this then I've been had. I've gotta say, it was fun to mingle amongst you average looking people for a time, however short it may have been. After I survived that business with the Cosa Nostra, I don't know, I guess I felt untouchable. I tempted that wretched mistress Fate one too many times, and look where it got me; six feet in my least favorite kind of hole.

I know I was unhelpful most of the time, and whether that could be chalked up to personal issues that arose during our time together or just pure laziness, I'd like to apologize. I let the team down, I dropped the balls, and for that I'm truly sorry. I wish we could finish on better terms, but I know that you'll all tug through this. Just know that I will always be with you... in your hearts. In your minds. In your pants.

Schlongenstein out.

 

[CzarTim]

##### Encrypted: decrypt with http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/
ZZZZZ IMSAX FNAHC BEFEU UFIJA TKSPE JKUHW WEORO ECJQR PWAID CDTFG
DQBXA AJCNX MJQHW CXKFO GNMMB REMUU KREAT KWDFF SQAWV MZZZZ YYYYY
##### End encrypted message

 

[Burbeting]

The day began early, huh.

Firstly: Hyperactivity & Sawneeks, I'm waiting to hear your thoughts and insight ASAP. Sawneeks already said, that she would most likely be there irl tomorrow. It's unfortunate, but at this point of the game (It's now midgame), I have to take into account your previous incarnations (GLT & Starsketch) when trying to read your roles.

MattyG:s death is not an enormous surpise, he had soft-claimed that he had role closer to something like this. At least there wasn't a death of a huge contributor this time.

What is interesting though, is that there was just one NK this time. Not sure why is that, at this point I can only make guesses.

I'll try to think about things some more.

----

PS. Please, PLEASE, if you close to being lynched, don't do any weird anti-town moves for fun or otherwise. This has already costed us Darryl and Zipped (and Style, to a lesser extenct).

 

[Septimus Prime]

Regarding the single death, I think it had to be either that the first couple of nights had a bunch of people using limited stock abilities or someone successfully role blocked someone else this night. In Archer, we had a secondary doctor who got his ability when the original doctor died, too, so maybe there's one if those here, as well.

 

[Burbeting]

Question Time!

This game has it's doctor (cabot) dead. The one-shot-reviver (suppoused) has used it's one shot. That means, that there is more likely no more healing roles left.

So then, how is CrimsonFist still alive, after being Sheriff for quite some time? Sheriff, whose doublevote role is suppousedly quite dangerous power for the scum, if it's in the hands of town.

Something to think about.

 

[CzarTim]

I was wondering about Crimson too, but I'm still town reading him everything else aside so w/e. I don't think he's even used the double vote yet.

 

[CzarTim]

I'm just treating the double vote as a permanent -1 for LyLo. Totally up for losing the game if it's a hilarious heel turn.

 

[cabot]

This game has it's doctor (cabot) dead.

Never forget.

 

[CrimsonFist]

Question Time!

This game has it's doctor (cabot) dead. The one-shot-reviver (suppoused) has used it's one shot. That means, that there is more likely no more healing roles left.

So then, how is CrimsonFist still alive, after being Sheriff for quite some time? Sheriff, whose doublevote role is suppousedly quite dangerous power for the scum, if it's in the hands of town.

Something to think about.

Maybe it's just because killing me won't actually get rid of the doublevote. As long as I deputise townies, the situation won't really change if they kill me or not.

So I just need to be careful as to who I deputise.

 

[Hyperactivity]

VOTE: Rats Off To Ya

Had a look at the voting records yesterday

 

[Burbeting]

Maybe it's just because killing me won't actually get rid of the doublevote. As long as I deputise townies, the situation won't really change if they kill me or not.

So I just need to be careful as to who I deputise.

Or, the scum team has had the power of the double vote since the second day.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Vote: Rats Off To Ya

Threat.

 

[CzarTim]

I was voting Rats before it was cool *smirk*

 

[Hyperactivity]

Let me write out all the voting stuff

DAY ONE:

Darryl:
Batsnacks
CzarTim
XamTheKing

FluxWavez
Cornburrito
Drop
Swamped
Cabot
Terrabyte20XX - Scum

I striked off Xamtheking because there's no way he's scum with the way he way he plays. It seems a little unbelievable tbh

Ultron87:
Splinter
Darryl
GLT
Rats Off To Ya

For reference, ROTY's vote is at post 783, which is about 200 posts before the attempt at a bandwagon ever starts (the other votes begin around the 900 votes). When he voted, this was "an off bandwagon vote".


Batsnacks:
mattyg

Xamtheking:
Makai
Boo Boo'n
Star Sketch
Lollipop Dave
Burbeting
Ultron87
RNH=Trigger

You see any dead people?

Ok, I've got three main theories as to what happened. I'm going to assume 5 mafia for now, perhaps account for 6 though tbh, looking at the size of the game (think six actually might be more likely)

A. 3:0:0:2 split
ROTY isn't scum, but upon clearing that, getting scum will be an absolute piece of cake, with the number of players on Darryl

B. 2:1:0:2 split
This is the main proposition I'm looking at right now

C. 2:0:0:3
Similar to situation A, but a little harder

D. 1:0:0:4
Huh, risky. But possible. The Xamtheking vote has a total of 7 people on it, notably for me- Burbeting, Makai, StarSketch, and Boo Boo'n. However, ultron87 and Lollipop Dav, while looking townish to me, are in no way out in the clear. I don't see scum going with this (unless they planned this out, which is still possible, but would take an impressive amount of planning and luck), but still possible

Who are those numbers?
1. In the first column are Batsnacks, czartim, swamped,and fluxwavez.

2. In the 2nd column, Rats Off To Ya, who has been acting off the entire game. I can probably go find specific examples. There's also the timing of his vote on ultron, and the reason- he felt deja vu from cthulhu

3. In the 3rd column, MattyG, who I at first dismissed as being non-active townie, until I noticed similar reasoning for voting for GLT during days 1 and 2 (This was prewritten. I wasn't discounting mattyg from being scum at the time)

4. In the 4th column, and limiting it to the people I think we should look at: Makai, Boo Boo'n, Sawneeks, (Star Sketch), and Burbeting. But really, maybe the entire column

Here''s the scary thing about column 4- I don't have much on any of them. And none of them have died. And that really bothers me.

I'll be honest, I'm sort of glad that peoplewho died were the ones that died, it helps me look at things like this much easier. Because a bunch of the dead people and some living players totally remind me of myself whenever I play scum- as in, play the town leader role, or try to play the town leader role

 

[Hyperactivity]

I'd like to add that the day three vote should be something someone should look back at near the end game, as the "secondary" lynch bandwagon on my predecessor, GLT, was disrupted, forcing any scum in it to all pile into the major bandwagon (there's only like one or two other votes outside of zippedpinhead's votes)

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Or, the scum team has had the power of the double vote since the second day.

So there's finally someone else who doesn't implicitly trust Crimson. Like I said before, I'm immediately wary of anyone who becomes Sheriff after the original was gone.

It's either like the New Sheriff himself says and the power seems like it'll always be in play anyways, or it's the fact that the double vote can still screw us over more than it'll hurt wolves. Haven't seen a double vote help town once in my short experience.

 

[Burbeting]

Hyper, the problem with only analysing D1 results can be a problem, as the votes shifted multiple times during the last hour. Do you think team scum was able to make that good tantics, when so many people were changing votes at the end?

Also, I'd might like to hear your top town/scum.

 

[Hyperactivity]

Hyper, the problem with only analysing D1 results can be a problem, as the votes shifted multiple times during the last hour. Do you think team scum was able to make that good tantics, when so many people were changing votes at the end?

Also, I'd might like to hear your top town/scum.

A. Scum teams don't really plan this out. They'll talk about placing their votes but still.

Besides, if they all grouped into two big piles, finding scum from now on will be really easy.

Top Town: Xamtheking

30 spaces down

Ultron87 and Lollipop Dave, barely

Top Scum: ROTY, or CzarTim (one or the other), aorta Timeaisis

Get bad vibes from you (Burbeting), FluxWavez, Makai, Starsketch --> Sawneeks

Mattyg was on that list too.

 

[Hyperactivity]

Actually, take ul from and Dave off my list. They're in my leaning town list, with one or two other people iirc (can't recall names right now)

 

[Burbeting]

But hyper, my point was that we don't know if they piled or not. At the end of D1 almost everyone was changing votes and bandwagon ING enormously. You can't just look at the end results blindly, you also have to consider how the votes of the players shifted during the last hour, and how players were reacting. For example, Terry didn't seem to care about who was going to die D1, and changed his vote all the time. It would be different, if the voting had been decided lot before, but in this case, it wasn't.

 

[Burbeting]

But thanks for the top town/scum, appreciate it.

 

[Hyperactivity]

But hyper, my point was that we don't know if they piled or not. At the end of D1 almost everyone was changing votes and bandwagon ING enormously. You can't just look at the end results blindly, you also have to consider how the votes of the players shifted during the last hour, and how players were reacting. For example, Terry didn't seem to care about who was going to die D1, and changed his vote all the time. It would be different, if the voting had been decided lot before, but in this case, it wasn't.

Ok, say I'm wrong about Rats today

Look at the two lists of votes again. One is almost entirely depleted, the other, if full of scum, will be easy to hit.

What do scum do when the top suspects are town?

Split. Split in some way. When Rats voted for ultron, it was FAAR before the attempt at ultron bandwagon ever started

People changing votes doesn't mean much.At the end of the day, scum want to avoid having too many people in one pile. No shit Terry didn't seem to care, everyone he was voting was probably town

Voting being decided before means crap all to me, because votes are still votes.
And tbh, despite you not being in my top scum, you are the one I'm most wary of Burbeting.You've done a great job at making yourself look like a super-useful townie so far, but I don't have a good feeling about you

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Ok, say I'm wrong about Rats today

You're not.

But I do generally agree with Burbeting, here, if only because of how insanely volatile the Day 1 votes were right at the end. Darryl did himself in, which caused people to immediately turn on him in a 10-minute window. I find it hard to think we can really get that much out of it, but eh.

 

[Burbeting]

Hyper, I do get scumvibes from Rats, but it's not because of his D1 voting behaviour, it's because he is flying under my (and I think many people's) radar, and doing his best to blend, and to make only super-safe statements.

And it's alright to be suspicious of me, it's part of the game .

 

[CrimsonFist]

So with only 1 death today, I'd like to revisit Batsnack's role claim.

According to him on night 1, there were three deaths: Drop, Terra and Ultron, but he revived Ultron.

Then on night 2, there were another three deaths: Cabot, Splinter, and CB, but he was the one who killed Cabot.

The assumption we draw from this is that there were three killing roles: scum with either one or two kills, a serial killer, and/or a vigilante, and one of them was blocked or picked the same target as someone else on night 2.

The other question we drew from this was: why would anyone kill Ultron?

And now today we have only had 1 death. If there were three killing roles, then I find it hard to believe that two of them were blocked, especially with the doctor gone.

So the possibilities I see are:

1) One of the deaths on night 1 was due to another one shot or other ability, not a regular killing role.

2) Batsnacks is lying about his role claim: He still killed Cabot with some other one shot ability, but never revived Ultron. This should account for most of the discrepancies: there are two killing roles who killed Drop and Terra night 1, the two killing roles also killed Splinter and CB night 2 with Bat killing Cabot, and one of the killing roles was blocked last night in some way, so only MattyG died. This would also answer why Ultron was targeted.

3) Two kills were blocked in some way last night

ofc, there's a few things that make me doubt option 2, mainly: why would Bat make a fake role claim like that? what would be the gain? If he wanted to clear up Cabot's death, why would he not just claim a one shot killing ability? and why risk claiming a role which could well be recycled from last game?

After laying it all out like that, I think option 1 probably seems the most likely, but I feel like it's at least worth raising for consideration.

Thoughts?

 

[Trigger]

So with just one death last night I definitely think that the three killers scenario is less likely. I guess we might also have some other protector/night role still in play assuming that a kill was blocked?

So there's finally someone else who doesn't implicitly trust Crimson. Like I said before, I'm immediately wary of anyone who becomes Sheriff after the original was gone.

It's either like the New Sheriff himself says and the power seems like it'll always be in play anyways, or it's the fact that the double vote can still screw us over more than it'll hurt wolves. Haven't seen a double vote help town once in my short experience.

I'll go with the second option. The role just paints a target on a townie's back, and what are the chances we correctly hit scum with a double vote? Sheriff just isn't a big threat right now. I don't know if I implicitly trust Crimson, but I don't see this as a reason for immediate suspicion.

 

[Hyperactivity]

Btw, you guys ruined a glorious plan of zippedpnhead's.

Had that worked, it would've been glorious to see.

Good job guys

 

[Xamtheking]

What if Ultron and Batsnacks are both scum, and they've just got a really long con going.
Are Witches by default Town-Aligned, or can they be either Town or Scum?

 

[Xamtheking]

Also, to celebrate Page 50:
Theme Song for the thread

 

[ultron87]

Zipped's nonsense was so self destructive that it is really throwing attempts at analysis off. Hmm.

What if Ultron and Batsnacks are both scum, and they've just got a really long con going.
Are Witches by default Town-Aligned, or can they be either Town or Scum?

It'd be a con that I've had no part in since I have no way to confirm me being saved or being acted upon in any way.

 

[Timeaisis]

RIP Gerhardt.

 

[Xamtheking]

Zipped's nonsense was so self destructive that it is really throwing attempts at analysis off. Hmm.



It'd be a con that I've had no part in since I have no way to confirm me being saved or being acted upon in any way.

Just some thoughts
I also have a thought that you're not Scum, but Batsnacks is, and he lied about saving you n1, since it doesn't seem that there is any way to 100% verify who was targeted for a kill n1 aside from the dead people.

 

[CrimsonFist]

What if Ultron and Batsnacks are both scum, and they've just got a really long con going.
Are Witches by default Town-Aligned, or can they be either Town or Scum?

I'm of the opinion that a scum aligned witch as described in the first game would be too overpowered

 

[Fireblend]

Checking in for day 4!

Re: Number of deaths, I'm going to stick to my occam's razor approach, and guess that our mystery killer(s) ran out of shots or decided not to use em. Also I'll re-state that I don't think talking about what may have happened overnight is a good way to spend our time, so that's about all I'll say about that. Let's just not lower our defenses thinking we won't have a repeat of N2.

Hyper and Sawneeks, it's good to have you onboard but as others have said, we're too far into the game for me to consider you clean slates. Neither of you are replacing super trusted players for me.

Town and scum lists coming later. This day phase is going to be disastrous to my activity because weekends are bad times for me. I think I'll be staying home tomorrow though, so here's hoping I'll be able to keep up and post.

 

[Timeaisis]

Regarding the single death:

I think someone was blocked last night. Or we have another doc type role role. Since we had 3 kills N1 and 2 kills N2, that leads me to believe we most likely at least have a Vig or SK in the mix. Even if scum had a one-shot extra kill for N1 that they used N1, that still means someone else was able to kill both N1 and N2. We have to account for those other two kills, remember. The only other possibility is that three one shots were used on N1 and N2 combined, which seems kind of crazy. But it's possible.

Therefore, I think most likely someone was blocked or protected last night.

 

[CzarTim]

Sept is another person floating by I could see as scum.

 

[CzarTim]

Another option for one kill is both killing parties targeted Matty.

 

[Timeaisis]

Another option for one kill is both killing parties targeted Matty.

I suppose that's possible. But did Matty paint that much of a target on his back? He softclaimed, which obviously drew the attention of scum. But an SK or Vig to target Matty doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Two parties targeting the same person seems far-fetched to me unless they really, really stood out. Like a Blargonaut or something.

 

[Burbeting]

Regarding the single death:

I think someone was blocked last night. Or we have another doc type role role. Since we had 3 kills N1 and 2 kills N2, that leads me to believe we most likely at least have a Vig or SK in the mix. Even if scum had a one-shot extra kill for N1 that they used N1, that still means someone else was able to kill both N1 and N2. We have to account for those other two kills, remember. The only other possibility is that three one shots were used on N1 and N2 combined, which seems kind of crazy. But it's possible.

Therefore, I think most likely someone was blocked or protected last night.

I guess this could be a possibility. But who would have the heal target been, hmmh.

I also doubt that Matty was targeted by multiple people this time. He was softclaiming clearly something close to the princess-role last time, and I doubt that a town-sided killer would go for him. It was most likely a scum kill.

 

[CzarTim]

I guess this could be a possibility. But who would have the heal target been, hmmh.

I also doubt that Matty was targeted by multiple people this time. He was softclaiming clearly something close to the princess-role last time, and I doubt that a town-sided killer would go for him. It was most likely a scum kill.

Sorry, when did we confirm a town-sided killer exactly?

 

[Burbeting]

Sorry, when did we confirm a town-sided killer exactly?

There was no confirmation, but it's my guess. Scum wouldn't kill Terra, that's for sure, and the Neutral SK might want to go for town as well first (since atleast I think that SK usually beenfits from killing town first, since the town will more likely concentrate on the scum before looking seriously for him). And well, Terra was not exactly Towny, not in my eyes, at least.

 

[Burbeting]

Also, if Batsnacks is telling the truth, he had a town-side killing power, but only one-shot. There is a good chance there would be more roles in his vein, the game did begin with 29 players.

 

[CzarTim]

There was no confirmation, but it's my guess. Scum wouldn't kill Terra, that's for sure, and the Neutral SK might want to go for town as well first (since atleast I think that SK usually beenfits from killing town first, since the town will more likely concentrate on the scum before looking seriously for him). And well, Terra was not exactly Towny, not in my eyes, at least.

If there is a town vig then a doctor last night is unlikely and a roleblocker is much more likely.

 

[Burbeting]

If there is a town vig then a doctor last night is unlikely and a roleblocker is much more likely.

That's true.

I'm going to write a bit longer post about what bothers me with Crimson atm.

 

[CrimsonFist]

Also, if Batsnacks is telling the truth, he had a town-side killing power, but only one-shot. There is a good chance there would be more roles in his vein, the game did begin with 29 players.

Palmer did also mention that this game would be bloodier than the last one.

 

[Timeaisis]

On Crimson, regarding why he's still alive. Well, I can see a few possibilities

1) Scum didn't bother to target him. I think this is most likely. Sure, he's the Sheriff, but Burb was deputized, anyway. The only way scum could kill off the double vote is if they killed Crimson and Burb at the same time, which obviously didn't happen. I feel like we'd have at least seen one of these kills if that's what they were going for. Instead, Matty is dead.

2) He was protected - We got another doc/protector. Maybe.

3) He was switched - He could've been switched with MattyG. Possible.

4) The killer was roleblocked. The assumption here is that the standard scum kill went to Matty and the "extra" kill (if they indeed had one) was blocked. I put this in the "unlikely" category.

5) He's scum.

1-4 work under the assumption that if Crimson was targeted, he was targeted by scum, which I think is reasonable.

 

[Warxard]

01 [m] CrimsonFist - Sheriff/Maybe Town (?)
02 [m] Xamtheking - Sleepwalker (?)
-Why won't you lynch this motherfucker
04 [m] Lollipop Dave - ???
-Generally have a high distrust for Lollipop Dave. Probably town though, unless he's playing us like a damn fiddle.
05 [m] FluxWaveZ
06 [m] CzarTim - ???
-Was that post you made when this day started worth anything?
08 [m] Trigger
09 [m] ultron87 - Sleepwalker (?)
-Most likely accurate in his claim of being a sleepwalker.
11 [f] Sawneeks
12 [m] Septimus Prime
13 [m] QuantumBro
14 [m] Timeaisis
15 [m] Hyperactivity
17 [m] Burbeting
18 [m] Terrabyte20xx - WOLF/DEAD
19 [m] Makai - ???
-Makai roleclaimed (?),
20 [m] batsnacks - Witch (?)
-I don't understand why this supposed witch would waste a revival on a sleepwalker. Seems like a bad move regardless.
23 [m] Rats Off To Ya - ??
-I'm leaning town.
25 [f] Swamped
26 [m] kingkitty
28 [m] Boo Boo 'n - Very Handsome, and cool
29 [m] Fireblend - JERK
-I want to say town, meets the requisites of being a townie. Likes to have me in the corner :/, which is understandable considering my post log hasn't been of his preference.

Things! The bolder are people I just can't read right now.

I want Xam gone please. Dude's the antithesis of town.