Support NeoGAF

[Alcibiades]

ok, which is the most likely in your opinion...

Best case: Bush wins, they gain Senate seats, gain House seats

+ Bush is leading in the polls

-The Micheal Moore voters aren't being counted as they are young in in college, so Bush needs a massive lead just to pull even on election day...

-Democrats have phenomenal candidates for Senate (mostly conservative ones). They are running convservatives to challenge and it's paying off. Even in safe states like Oklahoma, Democrats can pick up seats, regaining control

Medium case: Bush loses, Repub's keep seats in the Senate or slight gain, keep house

+Bush leads popular vote, but electoral vote is leaning Kerry, and Kerry leads in important battle states

+having realigned Texas districts, there is almost no way for the House to go Democratic anytime soon

Worst case: Bush loses, Repub's lose Senate, keep House

+Bush is leading nationally, but the Fahrenheit 9/11 pissed off too many people that took it as gospel, there's a landslide waiting to happen

+They may lose seats in House, but will still maintain majority, plus lots of Democrats are conservative anyway, not that hard to peel votes in the House

-maybe polls are right






The comfort for Republicans is that the House will almost certainly still be Republican after election day. The Senate is looking weird at the moment, if Bush wins, the Senate will almost certainly stay Republican.

I think the only issue here really is the uncounted (not undecided vote). Young people (as is usual in the US and around the world) are anti-establishment, want change, more rebellious, etc.. etc..., and this year, they bought right into Micheal Moore's propaganda.

That the anti-Moore crowd was so slow to respond is amazing... Fahrenhype 9/11, Celsius whatever it is, and Moore Hates America are like 3 months too late... that said, Fahrenhype 9/11 did manage to sell 200,000 copies, even I'm surprised considering the people buying won't have their minds changed, so why buy it?...

 

[Hitokage]

You know, I don't know how to reply to someone who thinks the only reason people will vote against Bush is Fahrenheit 9/11.

 

[Alcibiades]

You know, I don't know how to reply to someone who thinks the only reason people will vote against Bush is Fahrenheit 9/11.

well, I think can put Kerry over the top, over the already split 50/50 electorate, I should have made myself more clear...

the usual 40% Democrats supporting their candidate, and the usual 37% Republicans with theirs... then the undecided goes to Kerry by about a 6-4 margin...

then there's the usual Kerry Republicans pissed of at the war and spending, and the usual Bush Democrats that agree with his handling of the war, that's built into the polls...

in addition to that, there's the pissed of libbies Howard Dean brought into the party...

maybe it's cause I've seen the Micheal Moore effect myself with the college crowd (including a friend scared-sh*t about the situation, almost couldn't sleep at night thinking about it), it's so powerful, and easily undercounted cause they don't have regular phones...

 

[AntoneM]

worst case scenario is that everyone of voting age in the US votes and they only vote for Dems. It could not get worse for Reps.

 

[Triumph]

Honestly, the worst case scenario for actual Republicans would be a Bush victory in November. They'll keep control of the House for sure and maybe the Senate, but if Bush wins in November there is no way he will make it through a second term unless he makes it illegal to impeach, try, and throw him in jail. Which he probably will.

The horrors of the Bush Administration will destroy the modern Republican Party for at least the next 50 years. The smart ones are already pondering a switch to the Libertarians.

 

[Greenpanda]

The horrors of the Bush Administration will destroy the modern Republican Party for at least the next 50 years.

I'm afraid they'll only destroy the Democratic Party

 

[Alcibiades]

I agree a Bush loss can have an mobilizing effect, but I don't agree that a Bush win would be disastrous...

If he loses, the payback during mid-terms is going to be colossal, and I'm sure they'll have learned not to let the Democrats high-jack get-out-the-vote efforts and to respond to Moore-like stuff quicker and smarter...

either way, I'll agree that Bush win will drastically improve the chances that our nation will have seen over 4 Presidential periods Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton...

 

[Lambtron]

The horrors of the Bush Administration will destroy the modern Republican Party for at least the next 50 years. The smart ones are already pondering a switch to the Libertarians.

Ding ding ding ding ding ding ding. I'm voting Libertarian this year. Well, for president. I'm voting republican for House and democrat for Senate. And writing myself in for Governor. OH SHIT I'M SPLITTING MY TICKET!!?!!!! SHOCK AWE SHOCK SHOCK.

True story: the Democrats hesitated to bring my parents (hardcore Republicans, who are voting Democrat on the Senate seat) a Dorgan sign because they wouldn't put one up for their candidates for governor and US House.

 

[nathkenn]

"Bush leads popular vote"

lol

f' bush, and I've never seen 9/11 really don't have have any interest in it
who needs a crappy documentary film maker to tell you the obvious

 

[Chesapeake Silt]

Well, if the rapture happens before election day, that would really cut into Bush's christian conservative base.