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What will actually happen if Trump withdraws from NAFTA.
- Thread starter dramatis
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What?
Simply reducing regulations isn't going to bring factory jobs back. The litigious nature of America, plus the volatile role of politics is enough to keep people away. All it takes is four years and dems in charge to bring back all of the regulations that left. And if the jobs did return, you'd better believe there'd be a swing back to regulation once workers realize the regulations protecting them are gone, their unions are gone and they're getting shit wages.
Trump can't deliver on this promise and he's trying to walk us into the past because he doesn't understand the state of the world (among many other things).
Trump can't deliver on this promise and he's trying to walk us into the past because he doesn't understand the state of the world (among many other things).
drunkendonuts
Member
I know it will affect a lot of friends i know working in canada at the moment on NAFTA work permits, since Jan '15 through April '16 i was working up there on a NAFTA as well, outside of them getting permanent residency up there (which is tricky in itself), if NAFTA goes out the window, i'm guessing they'll have to go back and we'd have to find different ways to get up there, NAFTA being the easiest way to work up there for us. (in the film VFX, industry, by the by.)
Depends on the details.
Likely outcome would be a decimation of the Mexican economy (which may drive up illegal immigration and crime), a dampening of bordering states' economies since many have used Mexico as part of their supply chain, which would likely lead to price increases for those products as companies scramble to find adequate substitutes, and a drop in short term corporate investment as companies looked at the new rules to determine the best path forward.
I suspect we'd see job losses on all sides of the border, plus a renewed push to automation, with companies building factories in the union-free, estate cheap Southeast and trying to lure talent to manage the machines with 'high' wages. Basically, employment would suffer, prices would rise, and everyone would end up poorer for it.
Also, our GDP would probably drop. They keep talking about jacking up the GDP rate with corporate friendly policies, but Trump's rhetoric is pretty contradictory. You can't be super corporate friendly and super labor friendly -- there are trade offs. His record and that of Congress' tend to favor corporations, so we'll see if he even can push a NAFTA renegotation through.
Likely outcome would be a decimation of the Mexican economy (which may drive up illegal immigration and crime), a dampening of bordering states' economies since many have used Mexico as part of their supply chain, which would likely lead to price increases for those products as companies scramble to find adequate substitutes, and a drop in short term corporate investment as companies looked at the new rules to determine the best path forward.
I suspect we'd see job losses on all sides of the border, plus a renewed push to automation, with companies building factories in the union-free, estate cheap Southeast and trying to lure talent to manage the machines with 'high' wages. Basically, employment would suffer, prices would rise, and everyone would end up poorer for it.
Also, our GDP would probably drop. They keep talking about jacking up the GDP rate with corporate friendly policies, but Trump's rhetoric is pretty contradictory. You can't be super corporate friendly and super labor friendly -- there are trade offs. His record and that of Congress' tend to favor corporations, so we'll see if he even can push a NAFTA renegotation through.
killer rin
Member
Are you kidding me, they'll just blame Corporations and the Media for being too Liberal and begin campaigning against The Free Market because it's too Liberal for its own good
Oh they'll pay less taxes alright. It'll just be in the form of them losing their job and having to take something else that pays less
God Dayumm
Banned
I also work on a NAFTA visa but in the US as a programmer. I should send a letter to Mr. Trump to reconsider. He should be a businessman first and a nationalist second
Laevateinn
Member
If Trump doesn't follow through on his nationalism, we will most likely see a lot of violence and terrorism from his crybaby fanbase. This is one area I expect Trump to follow through on and if I were you I would begin preparing for finding a job back in Canada.
BannedEpisode
Member
What people don't realize is that there are a lot of manufacturing plants in the US that employ a ton of Americans that produce products with the end game of selling said product to Canada and Mexico with the help of NAFTA.
No NAFTA? Those customers are now paying a massive uptick in duty on those American goods.
Sure the opposite will be true and we will manufacture stuff in America for Americans but Americans that work to manufacture goods for Canada and Mexico will feel the hurt.
It's a two way street.
I wish economists would stop talking about 'Net benefit' and try to break down the effects by socioeconomic group and geography, because that's really Trumps whole argument, not that no one benefits from the trade deals, just that it's rural america that loses out.
If he's actually right and these deals are only beneficial to the bottom lines of billion dollar corporations then maybe the US should pull out.
If he's actually right and these deals are only beneficial to the bottom lines of billion dollar corporations then maybe the US should pull out.
Do you honestly think economists don't do that?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I think you have had an extremely limited reading of the economic literature on trade if you think demographic breakdowns of impacts have not been done.
Manufacturing jobs are never "coming back" because they never left, those jobs were taken by robots.
and probably wars being started because of it.
jack_package_200
Banned
Well, he's going to get a lot of opposition from his own party... It's a great way to start a rift right from word go.
It's going to have disastrous effects on not only this economy, but around the globe.
I still can't believe he'd actually go through with it. I'm hoping this is hot air, but again this is Trump we're talking about.
It's going to have disastrous effects on not only this economy, but around the globe.
I still can't believe he'd actually go through with it. I'm hoping this is hot air, but again this is Trump we're talking about.
Not while he values the advice of Bannon.
yanipheonu
Member
"In the one year anniversary of Trump accidentally giving Alaska to Canada during the NAFTA renegotiation, America regrets that the trade hasn't yielded any new jobs.... And Canada regrets having to deal with Alaskans."
andythinkpad
Member
You are right about Trump. But don't forget this is not just what he wanted, this is what American voters wanted. American voters want to learn it the hard way. And Brexit shows that this is not limited to this country.
SporeCrawler
Member
Russia
Or shopping elsewhere. Canada has already diversified their trade agreements. Killing NAFTA will hurt Canada so they're quickly working on finding other trade partners.
The problem with NAFTA is countries like the good deals but don't want to honor the deals that are not favorable. You can't have it both ways, and that's why so many cases end up in WTO courts. Overall NAFTA has been mutually beneficial, but it seems like Trump only wants the deals that benefit the US with no compromise.
If Trump wants to be so nationalist they'll end up becoming more isolationist. Good luck with that. If the US wants to be the next North Korea, then expect to be treated that way.
PdotMichael
Banned
The joke is that the USA is the only real profiteer of the NAFTA deal.
Well, I hope he doesn't do it.
But believe me, there is no fucking way withdrawing from NAFTA doesn't end in disaster for Texas. There are over a million people employed in exporting goods there. The energy sector would also be devastated. The state would lose much of its interstate trade value.
ScatheZombie
Member
This was one of the biggest parts of the election I couldn't stand. Your jobs aren't coming back. Ever. Learn a new trade. Learn a new skill. Technology has made it so you can't just learn to turn a specific knob for 30+ years anymore. Every job requires you constantly learn new shit. But...but... what about my coal industry job!?! Learn to install solar panels like the fucking rest of us.
Netherscourge
Banned
International trade will simply switch from Products to Materials.
1. Build everything HERE.
2. Buy the MATERIALS to build everything from THERE, and THERE and OVER THERE.
The competition will come between foreign material providers and companies like Apple and Google will negotiate for those materials with exclusivity contracts and whatnot.
Same problems. Different imports. Instead of Chinese factory slaves, you'll have Brazilian mining slaves.
1. Build everything HERE.
2. Buy the MATERIALS to build everything from THERE, and THERE and OVER THERE.
The competition will come between foreign material providers and companies like Apple and Google will negotiate for those materials with exclusivity contracts and whatnot.
Same problems. Different imports. Instead of Chinese factory slaves, you'll have Brazilian mining slaves.
Trust me, if he drops out of NAFTA, he will immediately lose Texas. Public opinion of NAFTA is negative in Texas, yet none of the states congressional representatives are open to the option of leaving it. Why? Because they know what would happen.
All that talk about jobs coming back? You're gonna see a ton of people lose jobs there. And they won't be happy.
Abstrusity
Member
Okay.
Free trade didn't kill the rural middle of nowhere localities.
Free Market did. Those factories and warehouses moved closer to the cities where they could make more money supplying the same shit. They broke into smaller factories to cover a wider area as demand began to outpace supply, further APPEARING to lower manufacturing. Automation took over from there, lowering the number of people needed to work.
And THEN free trade happens -- and guess what? The stuff we manufactured still? We ended up net exporters of.
IT was always about what they felt, because they got no answers. The racist and xenophobia was substituted in lieu of real answers.
To think that rural America only loses is absolutely false. Rural America has been propped up on free trade on farming. We export tons of corn, soybeans etc. If China and other countries decided to set tariffs or ban US farming goods it would be absolutely devastating to rural America.
That and a large portion of the world would starve to death.
PHOENIXZERO
Member
As much as it would hurt I think we need Trump and his goofs in Congress to just devastate the economy, just fucking burn it to the ground and be such a disaster that the GOP loses the massive amount of influence they've orchestrated for themselves over the last few decades.
Even worse for rural America is the rest of the world would adopt to alternative food sources. Corn, beef, soybeans, etc would all plummet in price.
There's a reason why the red states are all trying to increase trade with China.
Yeah, that's what actually funny. I guess they want more.
spindashing
Banned
yo....chill.
C00kie M0nster
Member
As I'm currently in possession of a NAFTA Work Permit, I would have to leave my current job in Canada and return to America (I'm a US citizen).
I've been watching this more anxiously than most to say the least.
I've been watching this more anxiously than most to say the least.
dskillzhtown
keep your strippers out of my American football
Houston and Laredo would be devastated, as would New Orleans I would believe. Yet you hear no state officials opposing this plan as of yet.
I feel like north america will go into a "mild" recession but at least canada has a trade deal in place with the european union to mitigate any possible fallout.
Mind you, it will take years for ceta to provide dividends for the two trading blocs.
I highly doubt anything major will take place between canada us though. Half a trillion dollars in trade flows between both countries per year.
Mind you, it will take years for ceta to provide dividends for the two trading blocs.
I highly doubt anything major will take place between canada us though. Half a trillion dollars in trade flows between both countries per year.
Yep. Any withdrawal, or even any renegotiation that reduces flows across the border, is going to be felt hard in Texas. It's hard to overstate the pro-free trade attitudes here.
Laevateinn
Member
Republicans are playing a massive game of chicken right now and with their egos this will only end in a head-on collision.
Camp Freddie
Member
Good luck being the world's reserve currency if countries have to pay massive tariffs to maintain their supply of dollars.
Something tells me that Trump has even less patience for the fine and tedious art of trade negotiations than my country's Brexiteers, so I can't see a 'renegotiated' NAFTA ever working out.
Something tells me that Trump has even less patience for the fine and tedious art of trade negotiations than my country's Brexiteers, so I can't see a 'renegotiated' NAFTA ever working out.
It still blows my mind they after almost a hundred years of no debate whether or not free trade is right for the American economy, we're moving back towards protectionism. Hundreds of years of economics progress are gonna be undone by this bozo.
Hopefully, Canada and Mexico won't be pushed around, and we keep NAFTA. It's been really good for our economy, most people just don't understand that.
Hopefully, Canada and Mexico won't be pushed around, and we keep NAFTA. It's been really good for our economy, most people just don't understand that.
LegendofJoe
Member
I have faith that there are enough Republican representatives and senators willing to block economically disastrous protectionism from taking hold. It will hit a lot of them in their wallets, so it isn't just blind faith in their willingness to see reason. If there's anything that Republicans understand it's their own bottom lines.
All of Texas would suffer. The state is the largest exporter of goods in the US by far.
A few state officials have already come out to endorse NAFTA, while everyone else is remaining silent and hoping Trump drops the whole thing so they don't have to go against him.
The funny thing is, Texas Republicans hate NAFTA now because Trump hates NAFTA and Bill Clinton made NAFTA and so NAFTA is obviously responsible for any economic problems that happen. But Texas is the state that has benefitted the most on all levels from NAFTA.
Same. NAFTA would hit wall street and the financial sector very hard and we know that those are the true masters of the GOP.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Detroit is going to get fucked. First thing that I thought when I saw how red Michigan went. Republicans in the state absolutely hate the city. I think a lot of it stems from the race riots and tension that has existed since then or rather before then really
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