Support NeoGAF

[NickFire]

The only certainty in my mind is that Series X will be 3rd place on sales within a couple years if not much sooner (say by end of Holiday 2021).

Because of brand loyalty and Spiderman (plus other exclusives), PS5 will be first.

The only question in my mind, is just haw much traction MS gets with Series S. It's a red herring to me (storage cost will make it comparable to X after you buy a couple games). But I envision a lot of people buying it as a present because of the cost. I'm predicting that MS will close the gap a fair amount, but I doubt they overtake Sony completely.

 

[The_Mike]

PlayStation will always win, it won't even feel any competition.

 

[Stuart360]

Gamepass costs a shit ton of money for MS to sustain and due to its existence the majority of Xbox users have stopped buying games. How exactly will MS be considered as a "winner"?

No one knows how much Gamepass costs to maintain, Microsoft have said its more than sustainable, so if you know something we dont, share it.
Also there are 15mil Gamepass subs, and that includes PC Gamepass, so no, Xbox gamers havent stopped buying games because of Gamepass.
Any more tired cliches you want to share?

 

[dano1]

Both systems will sell better but it will still be 2 to 1 if not more.

 

[Cockles & Whelks]

Depends on how quickly MS can drop their Megatons of new Elder Scrolls and Fallout.

 

[jaysius]

It is super easy to see who's posting here.

MS by a very long shot, the Series S is made to blanket the market, and at a lower entry cost it will, as, believe it or not, this board has a VERY LOW percentage of the gaming masses posting/lurking. Many gamers today don't understand that the Series S isn't what MS says it is, that the performance will vary way, more they don't really understand exclusives, they probably think Spiderman will come to Xbox someday and buy one thinking that because they're friend has an uncle working at Xbox. There are far more mouth breathers that are gamers today than ever before, they don't understand quality over performance they see the Series S as the thing that plays the new games, they don't understand how it won't look "the best" on their $80 4k tv. Parents will buy the kids the cheap machines especially in a the times of COVID. Put a sale on the Series S and it's even cheaper. MS didn't make the Series S to be a great product for the end consumer, they made it to smother the market with product to spread the brand.

Also all access is a brilliant way to give people something they can't afford/shouldn't be buying, which we know the gamers are up for, as long as they can pass a credit check.

MS will not beat Sony this gen, but they're going to do way better than last time.

This thread is all crystal ball fanboi bullshit.

 

[Maximusz]

1.5:1 to Playstation.

Switch will beat PS4 lifetime volumes though.

 

[Phunkydiabetic]

I'm disappointed this isn't a poll. I came into the thread wanting to see a big yellow line beside the ps5.

 

[Romulus]

I'd say ps5 by 3 to 1

 

[sincarra]

Stadia will be more successful. All bow down to the might cloud gaming behemoth that is Google’s Stadia.

 

[gypsygib]

PS5, the pricing is better. $400 gets you into the next gen as opposed to $500 for Xbox.

 

[Cert.in.Death]

It's a rough analogy, but I see Sony and MS like Apple and Google.

One is selling a unified ecosystem that is seamless and reliable, the other is selling a more free/customizable experience.

The analogy fits, at least with regard to the broad brush strokes.

 

[MatrixReloaded101]

Yup. Either "Switch 2" or "Series S", basically because price.

COVID-19 has made a dent on people's economy and Series S cheap alternative looks extremely attractive to the masses.

You have to remember that PS5/XSX are "elite" consoles, not meant for the general public, but hardcore fans (like the ones found on this forum).

This isn't true at all, the PS5, Series X/S and even the new iPhones sold out of pre-orders on day 1.

People will pay premium prices for the best experience or just wait until they can get the credit or funds to do so before buying low end models.

Even my friends who don't play a lot of videos games all said they don't want the Series S because they would prefer the higher end Series X.

 

[Eternal21]

I hope it's PS5, because I'm betting on their stock.

 

[Raekwon26]

PS5.

It'll be a wipe out.

 

[deriks]

PS5 will win at least from the start, but I can see a tie with Microsoft at the end

 

[Jadsey]

It's gonna be a bloodbath.

I honestly predict XsX1S to do WiiU type numbers....what good is a console without games?!

 

[anothertech]

Things won't turn around until the avalanche of games happens in 2 or three years.

When that happens, I expect a couple of must haves to be released and things to turn around a bit. Not ps sales numbers mind you but better sales all around for sure.

 

[Bonfires Down]

Who will sell more consoles? Sony. Who is better set up for the future? Microsoft.

I predict 140 million PS5s and 80-90 million, uhm... Series’s sold.

 

[cosmicom]

Series S + gamepass is the deal;

Series S will outsell by far the Series X, even more when prizes shrink to 199$.

Still playstation has the name and the fame.

 

[TMLT]

Sony is pretty much guaranteed to sell more consoles than MS every gen. I hope and think this will be a closer gen than the last though.

 

[cosmicom]

It's gonna be a bloodbath.

I honestly predict XsX1S to do WiiU type numbers....what good is a console without games?!

Any xbox user has soo many games, that the problem is the lack of time, not the lack of games. Game pass +EA access is the deal

 

[Clear]

Objectively, Sony should still comfortably retain a commanding lead globally. And if they start to feel the heat then all they need do is launch directly competing service offerings to counter what MS has. Gamepass is a business plan, its not an especially demanding thing to implement. The only really challenging part is having a content pipeline up to the task, and Sony have been way ahead in that regard for years.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Interesting that people here still view "winning" as console sales.

The winner will be the company with the bigger, more successful games by the end of the gen.

Microsoft is positioned well there.

 

[DrAspirino]

This isn't true at all, the PS5, Series X/S and even the new iPhones sold out of pre-orders on day 1.

People will pay premium prices for the best experience or just wait until they can get the credit or funds to do so before buying low end models.

Even my friends who don't play a lot of videos games all said they don't want the Series S because they would prefer the higher end Series X.

Well, evidence seems to say otherwise.

IDC - Smartphone Market Insights - Home

Detailed market size and share trends empower companies selling Mobile Phones to get ahead of market changes and compete more effectively. Sign up!

www.idc.com

As you can see, Apple (which is the "premium" brand) only ammounts to a 13.6% marketshare worldwide (with an emphasis here, as Apple has over 40% marketshare within the US), while less "premium" brands take the rest of the cake.

So... people DO care about price and value, and that's why the Switch has been a huge success. US$500 is too much of a high price for a device that serves only one purpose. Specially when you consider that in Europe, Asia and most of Latin America both consoles pay import taxes (which sometimes are quite steep).

As a gamer, I'm biased towards Nintendo (I've played their games since the NES), but as a consumer, the "Series S" + gamepass offers an unmatched value for money, considering Microsoft offers the console, games, AND subscriptions with special regional prices (unlike Sony or Nintendo, for example).

Remember: USA IS NOT the rest of the world, and your friends are not "casual".

 

[Croatoan]

PS5.

That said MS is going to eventually get gamepass on Sony consoles so I am not sure they are truly "competitors" anymore. The future of video games is streaming, but between now and then you are going to see a generation (this new one) where the idea of console exclusives dies. Next gen (the last gen before streaming takes complete control) consoles will be similar to DVD players and hardware exclusives will mostly be dead in favor of competing "gamepasses" (sonypass, Xpass, Nintendopass, Steam Pass, ect)

 

[Eternal21]

I predict 140 million PS5s and 80-90 million, uhm... Series’s sold.

Serii?

 

[farmerboy]

What if Sony sells more hardware but MS gets more dollar spend or engagement?

Lots of ways to measure success. I think there's a lot to play out. I think Sony will get in front again this gen but I can't help but think gamepass is going to do wonders for MS.

 

[Rolla]

The launch of the Series X feels different here in Europe. And no, I'm not talking about covid and the restrictions in the retail space. I'm talking about gauging the level of hype. In all honesty, and in my opinion of course, it's simply not there in comparison to previous XBOX launches. I've been through several and to me, even the XBOX ONE had more hype than the Series X

Obviously Europe has always leaned more towards PS but XBOX always had a foothold here. A foothold that just seems missing today. I was talking today with someone I met on 360 and to my surprise, despite being an avid gamer who has always owned both consoles, decided not to pick up a Series X. Obviously he is just one consumer but his reasoning piqued my interest. In short, an unclear and uncertain road map was a major factor. To him there was nothing on the horizon that grabbed his attention.


Yes XBOX is in a better position than they were in 2013 but in all honesty, I don't know if XBOX will have the same success they had this generation. The way it's looking right now here in Europe, despite launching first they don't seem to be in a position to compete with PS.

Despite all the money on earth via Microsfts deep pockets. It seems Mindshare and Momentum are things no amount of money can purchase.

 

[sublimit]

No one knows how much Gamepass costs to maintain, Microsoft have said its more than sustainable, so if you know something we dont, share it.
Also there are 15mil Gamepass subs, and that includes PC Gamepass, so no, Xbox gamers havent stopped buying games because of Gamepass.
Any more tired cliches you want to share?

You only need to put your logic to work in order to realize that all these games and especially big ones like RDR2 don't come cheap. Even Aaron Greenberg had said that GP isn't making them big profits:

Xbox Game Pass "not a big profit" explains Xbox's Aaron Greenberg - MSPoweruser

Microsoft’s video game subscription service Xbox Game Pass may be a fantastic value for money offer for Xbox gamers, but many have wondered where the profit is for Microsoft. Unsurprisingly, there isn’t much. Speaking on an episode of the What’s Good Games podcast, Xbox marketing general...

mspoweruser.com

And excluding 15-20 million GP users from game software sales isn't something trivial either. What percentage of those who have GP Ultimate actually still buy games? And if they do how many of them buy at full price? How many GP users buy digital or physical games on day one? How can MS can even compare to the profits Sony is making when their PS+ costs are significantly lower than GP while subscription memberships for PS+ keep on rising?

So yeah i'm sorry that common logic and facts upset you so much but the only one who's throwing "tired cliches" around here is you.

 

[EDMIX]

Sony really haven't had any big missteps that would shift the dynamic like PS3 and Xbox One so I don't expect much to change from the current gen

Pretty much. If its anything like PS4 generation or their past ones where they bring out a bunch of new IP, they will be fine. I expect new IP from the Naughty Dog team that did Uncharted 4, I heard a rumor that Sony Santa Monica is working on a new IP as well as God Of War (not sure if thats still the case)

I expect sequels to Days Gone, Ghost Of Tsushima etc. Those games did much better then I really thought they would so they have some life as a series to move some massive units for Sony. To move 114 million units with what they had, I feel they easily can do that again with the sequels to God Of War, Spiderman ie Spiderman 2, Days Gone 2, Ghost Of Tsushima 2 etc. So I'm hype for the established stuff they put out, the sequels to the new stuff they put out and maybe so return to some old IP like The Getaway (PLEASE! lol) and of course new IP.

 

[RGB'D]

Probably PS5 unless the Series S becomes huge based on the price (post COVID worldwide economic depression). For what it is, the series S is very slick and could appeal to big sector (casuals) and I'm very impressed with my wife's series X. PS5 is a fantastic (but sadly fugly) console and has a more compelling reason to own at this specific snapshot (since MS delayed their exclusives to next year). Now as far as XBOX consumption through alternative outlets, I think xbox has the chance to match or even surpass the PS5. Xcloud seems made for Japanese gamers, and Microsoft is killing it for primarily PC gamers like me.

 

[Hal.]

Depends on how quickly Todd can get Elder Scrolls 6 out the door because your average mug is going to get it on Xbox and not PC.

Unless they take the Mincecraft approach, but I doubt it.

If Microsoft’s acquisitions start paying off, it might be close ish but PS5 has all the momentum that PS3 lacked when 360 had an awesome first 2 years on the market.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

No idea. In terms of pure units, it probably will be Sony.

The thing is we cannot compare Playstation with Xbox directly anymore. Xbox is GamePass and consoles. It is basically GamePass Mobile + Xbox Series S + Xbox Series X + GamePass PC + GamePass on S + GamePass on X. Pure by numbers we should probably go with GamePass.

Will be better to wait for next year Q3 report or something. I do think that MS will have much bigger media presence across the world this time.

 

[Killer8]

PS5 will win but I can see Xbox Series selling much more than the Xbox One did.

 

[AmuroChan]

Apples to oranges as both companies are moving in different directions and have different metrics for success. Sony is maintaining the traditional course of selling consoles. MS wants to be the Netflix of gaming and make GP ubiquitous. Their respective success factors are going to be very different.

 

[Stuart360]

You only need to put your logic to work in order to realize that all these games and especially big ones like RDR2 don't come cheap. Even Aaron Greenberg had said that GP isn't making them big profits:

Xbox Game Pass "not a big profit" explains Xbox's Aaron Greenberg - MSPoweruser

Microsoft’s video game subscription service Xbox Game Pass may be a fantastic value for money offer for Xbox gamers, but many have wondered where the profit is for Microsoft. Unsurprisingly, there isn’t much. Speaking on an episode of the What’s Good Games podcast, Xbox marketing general...

mspoweruser.com

And excluding 15-20 million GP users from game software sales isn't something trivial either. What percentage of those who have GP Ultimate actually still buy games? And if they do how many of them buy at full price? How many GP users buy digital or physical games on day one? How can MS can even compare to the profits Sony is making when their PS+ costs are significantly lower than GP while subscription memberships for PS+ keep on rising?

So yeah i'm sorry that common logic and facts upset you so much but the only one who's throwing "tired cliches" around here is you.

'logic and facts' lol, yeah the Next Gen Speculation thread logics and facts.
Greenberg said its not a big profit earner yet, that doesnt equel 'bleeding money' like you said in another post. And not all games release on gamepas, in fact the vast majority dont, outside of first party, so obviously gamers are still buying games as well. Its like saying Hollywood is going under because of Netflix and Amazon.

Anyway just rememeber all these tired cliches because its only a matter of time before Sony does their own Gamepass. Its coming 100%.

 

[IfuckinghateReddit]

Whichever one focuses less on woke bullshit will be successful.

 

[Fitzchiv]

Xbox as a brand will "win" the next generation by the only metric that actually matters to them: profit

Be it leveraging Gamepass, hosting 3rd party content, timed exclusive on first party exclusives that's subsequently licensed, direct sale, Consoles, cut of digital sales, sake of Azure hosting (ok that's MS over Xbox but even so) - they're geared to wring money from multiple channels.

Will it win in hardware sales? Unlikely, but from a market capitalisation perspective I would imagine MS shareholders will be happier in 7 years than Sony.

 

[sublimit]

'logic and facts' lol, yeah the Next Gen Speculation thread logics and facts.
Greenberg said its not a big profit earner yet, that doesnt equel 'bleeding money' like you said in another post. And not all games release on gamepas, in fact the vast majority dont, outside of first party, so obviously gamers are still buying games as well. Its like saying Hollywood is going under because of Netflix and Amazon.

Anyway just rememeber all these tired cliches because its only a matter of time before Sony does their own Gamepass. Its coming 100%.

Sony can not afford to make their own Gamepass where all their first big party games to be free on it on day 1. They just can't compete with MS on that level. And they can't having big third party games on it every month while also sustaining PS+ where the majority of their subscription memberships are.

If they ever turn PSNow to something like GP it will be a very different service and offer a much lower value.

 

[Arachnid]

Probably PS5. This gen bought them an insane amount of goodwill that will give them one hell of a headstart. Even if Xbox has a fantastic gen, they'll be fighting well into the end of the next console cycle to even things out (if they ever do).

 

[Alan Wake]

Gamepass costs a shit ton of money for MS to sustain and due to its existence the majority of Xbox users have stopped buying games. How exactly will MS be considered as a "winner"?

If they make money. That's what it's all about and they wouldn't invest so heavily in Game Pass it they didn't firmly believe they could make money on it. Microsoft is not here to show off, they're here to make money. And they will. Game Pass will continue to grow.

 

[LucidFlux]

I think Playstation maintains momentum and starts out stronger but I can see more people eventually picking up both consoles this generation. I'll definitely be getting an Xbox in a couple years once their big exclusives start rolling out.

 

[MrS]

"More successful" is silly. Sony will sell considerably more consoles than Xbox but it's not a zero sum game and there is more than one way to skin a cat in relation to how you make money in this industry. I think Xbox would be happy to sell fewer consoles if they could offset that by getting more people on to game pass who don't own the console.

 

[bxrz]

Ps5 will demolish XS more than Ps4 vs Xbox One.

75/25 minimum.

BookMark.

WorldWide.

This is delusional talk lol

 

[Black_Stride]

Even the good generation X360 wasnt actually killing the Playstation....not sure if this is a lets pat ourselves on the back thread or what.
But thats like asking which is going to be more successful Toyota Corrolla or "insert American car here".
Toyota is globally a killer just like Playstation
Microsoft does well but isnt quite at the level of Playstation

So it terms of success assuming we are measuring success in units sold its no contest.
I dont see MS catching up in markets that just dont care about Xbox.
The marketing push that would be needed to get people to buy into Xbox in certain regions would be astronomical.

 

[sublimit]

If they make money. That's what it's all about and they wouldn't invest so heavily in Game Pass it they didn't firmly believe they could make money on it. Microsoft is not here to show off, they're here to make money. And they will. Game Pass will continue to grow.

No one said that MS is in this just for charity. They obviously want to make money. But they (Greenberg) have also said that they are not expecting to see GP's benefits in the short term but in the long term. Right now they can afford to loose money because for them that is an investment for the future in order to be at a better position than anyone else to reap the rewards of their current efforts. But Gamepass is not there yet and i doubt it will be where they trully want it to be in terms of profits during this gen. This is what Spencer meant when he said that it's a marathon not a sprint.

 

[gow3isben]

From 120-50 it will be 110-60

 

[J____Av]

PS5 by a mile, even though Series S/X will see increased marketshare, it probably won't be close.

I think Xbox has a better chance of decrease marketshare to be honest. Even with the Bethesda buy, their name brand is WAY lower now than it was when the ONE came out

 

[ZywyPL]

Consoles sold? PS5 easily,followed by whatever Nintendo comes up with next. Actual user base? XBL/GP.