Very interesting analysis. But what about Panasonic 3DO? Looks like it would have been more competitive, if the new Saturn and N64 had been weak.This is an interesting hypothetical, but all but impossible given the degree that Sony disrupted--nay, obliterated--the videogame industry.
First of all, without Sony, both Sega and Nintendo would have released less powerful consoles. We all know the stories about the original Saturn design, and how Sega was forced to increase the hardware power to compete against PlayStation, at the cost of having a console that was brutally expensive (which is ultimately what killed them). We don't know as many details about Nintendo's original design plans before 1993, but we can clearly see their struggles to release Nintendo 64 while also hitting that crucial mass-market $149 price point. They had to literally strip that motherboard down to the bone, like Matt Damon's rocketship in The Martian. That's why N64 was plagued with those infamous bottlenecks & everything was chugging along at 10 fps.
So without Sony, what would Generation 5 look like? I think it would probably look a lot like the Atari Jaguar. That console was designed along the longstanding technology curve tempered by price. You have to build the most powerful console that can also be sold at $149 without losing money. 3DO was a very powerful beast but launched at $700, and even by 1995, it was selling at $299. Needless to say, it never went anywhere. Atari Corp had a much better balance between price & performance, and if they had a better launch--if they weren't crippled by supply & distribution problems in Christmas 1993, if there was better launch software--things might have turned out very differently. Sega was right to worry about them. The Atari 7800, after all, had outsold the Master System in the US ( a little apples-to-oranges, but still), and the Lynx was an amazingly powerful handheld that was crippled by poor distribution (the Tramiels' notorious business antics had caught up with them).
By 1994, Jaguar had some great videogames: Tempest 2000, Alien Vs Predator, Iron Soldier, Doom, Wolfenstein 3D to a lesser extent. However, by that time, everyone was already buzzing about Sony's PlayStation, and so Atari's crucial moment had probably past (those titles should have arrived the year before). And once gamers got a look at Ridge Racer and Toshinden (ugh), that competition was over. Take all that away, and the future looks very, very different. Games like Iron Soldier, I-War and Battlesphere (released after the Jaguar's retirement) suddenly look a LOT better. It's too bad that Space War 2000 was never completed, I really enjoyed that one very much.
So, in terms of 3D polygon powers, we would expect 5th Gen games along those lines. You'll have one more console generation that refines and perfects 2D videogames with some continued forays into 3D, but nothing that represents a definitive paradigm shift until you get to the 6th Gen. You're certainly not going to see something like Tekken 3 or Fighters Megamix during that era.
Now how would the market react to that timeline? This issue is rarely discussed, and was raised here on NeoGAF, but the US videogame industry went into a steep decline in the mid-90s. From 1993-1996, the industry shrank from $6.5 billion to $2 billion. It only really started to pull out with the launch of Nintendo 64 and the subsequent Sony-Nintendo war in 1997. Without Sony in the picture, does that even turn around? Or does Nintendo completely dominate once again? I suppose it would all depend on what Super Mario 64 looked like, and that would depend on what Nintendo's console would be. Would the CPU be 32-bit or 64-bit? How many other N64 features would be gone? Could such a console run Mario? Are we looking at polygon graphics like the Jaguar, or perhaps those early third-party Saturn games that used only one CPU?
One thing is for certain: the kids were growing tired of the same old videogames. The enormous blockbuster success of Street Fighter 2, Mortal Kombat and NBA Jam masked a very sharp decline in the overall industry, and given how notoriously fickle the gaming public was at the time (just ask Sega), something new was needed. Yet another console cycle of refined 1980s-style 2D games just wasn't going to cut it. The kids were not going to tolerate another five years of Donkey Kong Country clones. Without Sony, where does that new innovation come from? Does it come from PC? Doom was a massive megahit, and Windows 95 showed Microsoft was taking videogames seriously. But they only did so because of Sony, and feared losing the living room which was to be the home of the legendary "set top box," where all the futuristic technology predicted decades earlier would converge. Without PlayStation, does Microsoft stick to the PC, expecting that to become the center of the digital future?
The truth is that's the real reason Sony got into the videogame business. They wanted a foothold in the living room so that they could control that future market, one where you could watch movies, surf the internet, conduct online shopping, download music, yada yada. Sony built the PlayStation so that they could sell DVDs and Blu-Rays. Take away the PlayStation and all of that either moves back several crucial years, or disappears entirely. Who knows? Maybe we'd be watching movies on Super VHS?
Counterfactuals, alternate timelines, it's all but impossible to speculate. Sony's PlayStation was a massively disruptive product that changed videogames and consumer electronics in every conceivable way. It was the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs and cleared the path for the new century. And there really wasn't anyone else with the vision to make that happen, not Phillips, not Microsoft, certainly not 3DO. Atari Corp was slowly fading into extinction, Sega was that cult favorite local band that had a couple breakout hits, and Nintendo, well, they'll always be Nintendo. They're never going anywhere. How videogames in the 90s would have looked is anyone's guess, but it almost certainly would have been smaller, weaker and less interesting.
Panasonic bottled it for one reason or another, (when they obtained the tech for M2) either they didn't feel confident of knocking Sony off their perch, or all along they decided, let's just keep it in the bag....then again the 3DO company wasn't to know that Panasonic would get cold feet, had they went ahead with the release it would have made the hardware landscape even more interesting...Very interesting analysis. But what about Panasonic 3DO? Looks like it would have been more competitive, if the new Saturn and N64 had been weak.
exactly. They had an alternative that was aggressively trying to take a big chunk of the market. Without Sony, FFVII would have been a weird cart game.If Sony hadn't entered, who's to say Square wouldn't have stuck with Nintendo? I'm going N64 here.
2D games felt like the future compared to full 3D ones?Saturn. It felt like the future. N64 looked like a bath toy compared to Saturn.
Good luck getting them to look like anything they did on the PS1, especially from a third-party.The only way it would have been Saturn is if Sega did what Sony did - entice all those big third-party studios to their platform over Nintendo. If Final Fantasy VII, Metal Gear Solid, Resident Evil had all been Saturn exclusives, maybe Sega would be where Sony is today.
Nintendo would have crushed them regardless. All those PS1 games don't magically end up on the Saturn.Saturn for sure. Nintendo came 2 years late with expensive games. It'd have been a landslide.
If that were the case then why wasn't Final Fantasy 7 multiplatform ?Square would have released FF 7 on the Saturn and we have nothing else to say.
Si, you're namco in 1993 and you're planning a 1994 release for Ridge Racer and Tekken. Your options are the SNES and Saturn. Same with Square, that very specifically said that the CD-ROM format was key for FFVII. Two years of the SNES fighting against the arcade bangers, WipEout, Destruction Derby, Loaded, Resident Evil, Tomb Raider and all the myths of the early 32 bit generation and by the time they arrive they have an expensive product and no CD-ROM.Nintendo would have crushed them regardless. All those PS1 games don't magically end up on the Saturn.
They would be exclusive to the N64, believe me, Sega was Namco's competitor in the arcade and wouldn't like to give them room inside the SaturnSi, you're namco in 1993 and you're planning a 1994 release for Ridge Racer and Tekken. Your options are the SNES and Saturn.
Ok, so just little things like Sega Rally, Resident Evil, Tomb Raider or FIFA.They would be exclusive to the N64, believe me, Sega was Namco's competitor in the arcade and wouldn't like to give them room inside the Saturn
Take 5mg copium and relax, pal. Sony moved 100+ million PS1 units. The biggest chunk of those sales would go towards Saturn, when PS1 would have not existed. People would rather buy a disc based, future oriented console than a cartridge based bath toy of the past era.2D games felt like the future compared to full 3D ones?
Nintendo smashes them. Sega fanboys are completely delusional. Most 3rd parties would have stuck with Nintendo and their cartridges. The N64 still managed 30M units whereas the Saturn didn't reach 10M. There's no reality in which the Saturn wins that generation with Nintendo or Sony around.
Square apparently already had already technical prototpyes going on N64. So it's not like they were completely averse to the idea. It's just that Sony was very good at lobbying all important third-party devs. That hit Sega especially hard. And Nintendo probably would've treated the N64DD more seriously.Saturn for sure. Square already had backed out of the N64, and had more port support even with PS in the picture. Only things that carried the N64 it's entire gen was Mario 64 and OoT.
Edit: I'm still too scrubby to be allowed to vote here. :/
The ones coping are the usual Sega fanboys who live in their delusion.Take 5mg copium and relax, pal.
Nah, they'd go to Nintendo.Sony moved 100+ million PS1 units. The biggest chunk of those sales would go towards Saturn, when PS1 would have not existed.
No one gave a shit about that at the time because no one even knew the difference besides that they were 2 different media. Almost no one, and especially not the mainstream consumer, knew the storage size difference, let alone with MBs and KBs were back in 1996. What they cared about was the system with the better games and the N64 royally dumped on the Saturn in terms of 3D capabilities. Devs would have had to remake their games into 2D trash to run on the Saturn.People would rather buy a disc based, future oriented console than a cartridge based bath toy of the past era.
Oh, I'm sure the system that sold fewer than 10M was a hot talking point among people lmao. Refuse to accept reality? Sega's hardware is dead. Nintendo is the strongest ever. It certainly ain't Nintendo fans who refuse to accept reality.Back in the day, the discussions among gamers were like "should I get a PS1 or Saturn?". Not a single sane soul was asking "sould I get a PS1 or N64?".
But to say something positive about the Nintendo fanboys: They are very consistent. They refused to accept the reality back in the day, and they still refuse to do so today.
I don't think Namco would have released their game on a rival arcade developer, no, especially not when the bitter rivalry at the time for 3D fighters as between Tekken and Virtua Fighter. As for Square, they already had a relationship with Nintendo and even had begun prototypes for an N64 version of FFVII until they realized they absolutely needed CDs and PlayStation courted them along with tons of third-party devs. Nintendo's biggest problem at the time was their arrogance, thinking people would choose them over third-party devs, but the moment Sony opened its door and started seducing all of them, they jumped ship like nobody's business. Sega didn't have the business acumen for that, nor were the 3D capabilities of the Saturn up to par with the N64. Most devs would have resigned themselves to continue with Nintendo like so many had planned anyway, until Sony came about and convinced them to switch teams.Si, you're namco in 1993 and you're planning a 1994 release for Ridge Racer and Tekken. Your options are the SNES and Saturn. Same with Square, that very specifically said that the CD-ROM format was key for FFVII. Two years of the SNES fighting against the arcade bangers, WipEout, Destruction Derby, Loaded, Resident Evil, Tomb Raider and all the myths of the early 32 bit generation and by the time they arrive they have an expensive product and no CD-ROM.
Edit: oh! And only one console marketed to young adults vs one marketed for kids.
ps1 and saturn together sold less than the super nes before the n64 was released.Ok, so just little things like Sega Rally, Resident Evil, Tomb Raider or FIFA.
Agree to disagree then, Gaiff. Capcom was also a rival in arcades to Sega and had no problems with making games to their system. Anyways Dreamcast would have die to the GC so who cares.The ones coping are the usual Sega fanboys who live in their delusion.
Nah, they'd go to Nintendo.
No one gave a shit about that at the time because no one even knew the difference besides that they were 2 different media. Almost no one, and especially not the mainstream consumer, knew the storage size difference, let alone with MBs and KBs were back in 1996. What they cared about was the system with the better games and the N64 royally dumped on the Saturn in terms of 3D capabilities. Devs would have had to remake their games into 2D trash to run on the Saturn.
Oh, I'm sure the system that sold fewer than 10M was a hot talking point among people lmao. Refuse to accept reality? Sega's hardware is dead. Nintendo is the strongest ever. It certainly ain't Nintendo fans who refuse to accept reality.
I don't think Namco would have released their game on a rival arcade developer, no, especially not when the bitter rivalry at the time for 3D fighters as between Tekken and Virtua Fighter. As for Square, they already had a relationship with Nintendo and even had begun prototypes for an N64 version of FFVII until they realized they absolutely needed CDs and PlayStation courted them along with tons of third-party devs. Nintendo's biggest problem at the time was their arrogance, thinking people would choose them over third-party devs, but the moment Sony opened its door and started seducing all of them, they jumped ship like nobody's business. Sega didn't have the business acumen for that, nor were the 3D capabilities of the Saturn up to par with the N64. Most devs would have resigned themselves to continue with Nintendo like so many had planned anyway, until Sony came about and convinced them to switch teams.
The Saturn didn't even manage 10M despite having CDs. The N64 still managed 30M despite losing the bulk of its third-party support and being limited by cartridges. Suggesting the Saturn would have outsold the N64 without Sony in the picture is downright farcical.
lol, N64 hardware was designed around Super Mario 64 which is an infinitely more advanced 3D game than what Tekken 3 or Fighters Megamix offered.So, in terms of 3D polygon powers, we would expect 5th Gen games along those lines. You'll have one more console generation that refines and perfects 2D videogames with some continued forays into 3D, but nothing that represents a definitive paradigm shift until you get to the 6th Gen. You're certainly not going to see something like Tekken 3 or Fighters Megamix during that era.
64 only did okay in North America. It flopped in Japan and Europe. Heck Saturn still beat it in Japan.Sega Saturn is a disaster, without the PS1, the Saturn would have sold 1.5M until the N64 arrived, then the N64 would destroy it, then in 1998 some company would try to enter the market, probably Microsoft itself. Sega's problems were insoluble.
I understand that you are a passionate Nintendo fanboy and there's nothing wrong with that, as long as you stay in touch with the reality. The PlayStation audience, if not for the PlayStation, would have gone the Sega Saturn route. While people didn't necessarily know the exact storage difference between a CD and a cartridge, people were 100% aware of the fact, that a cartridge was has been a way inferior medium compared to a CD and is a relic of the past. The sheer fact, that the SNES did around 50 million in sales, while the N64 only reached around 30 million, shows that even the ones that have owned a SNES, rather went for the PlayStation, and if not for that, would have got a Saturn instead.The ones coping are the usual Sega fanboys who live in their delusion.
Nah, they'd go to Nintendo.
No one gave a shit about that at the time because no one even knew the difference besides that they were 2 different media. Almost no one, and especially not the mainstream consumer, knew the storage size difference, let alone with MBs and KBs were back in 1996. What they cared about was the system with the better games and the N64 royally dumped on the Saturn in terms of 3D capabilities. Devs would have had to remake their games into 2D trash to run on the Saturn.
Oh, I'm sure the system that sold fewer than 10M was a hot talking point among people lmao. Refuse to accept reality? Sega's hardware is dead. Nintendo is the strongest ever. It certainly ain't Nintendo fans who refuse to accept reality.
Bullshit. Sega was innovating 3D in the arcade space and managed to port Virtua Fighter to 32X. No way they would completely ignore it as a lot of their software development and partnerships centered around 3D even before the Saturn had a prototype. Also, the much more advanced Virtua Fighter 3 came out in 1996.So, in terms of 3D polygon powers, we would expect 5th Gen games along those lines. You'll have one more console generation that refines and perfects 2D videogames with some continued forays into 3D, but nothing that represents a definitive paradigm shift until you get to the 6th Gen. You're certainly not going to see something like Tekken 3 or Fighters Megamix during that era.
Then why did the Saturn manage to sell a paltry 9M? You'd think if the audience it would have attracted was so large, it would have attracted at least 25M people and the N64 would have been the one to sell fewer than 10M units.I understand that you are a passionate Nintendo fanboy and there's nothing wrong with that, as long as you stay in touch with the reality. The PlayStation audience, if not for the PlayStation, would have gone the Sega Saturn route.
Bullshit. Cartridges offer key advantages over CDs, one of which is much faster load times that were practically non-existent on the N64. However, the extra storage and that they are cheap to manufacture was much more enticing to devs and publishers. People didn't give a shit either way.While people didn't necessarily know the exact storage difference between a CD and a cartridge, people were 100% aware of the fact, that a cartridge was has been a way inferior medium compared to a CD and is a relic of the past. The sheer fact, that the SNES did around 50 million in sales, while the N64 only reached around 30 million, shows that even the ones that have owned a SNES, rather went for the PlayStation, and if not for that, would have got a Saturn instead.
You try really hard to pretend you were around and I know you're full of shit when you claim there was ever a debate between the 102M PS1 and 10M Saturn lmao. There never was one. You read up on that years later and act like you were around when the rivalry at the time was firmly between PS1 and N64. Nobody gave a shit about the Saturn.Random bullshit
Those companies were far too incompetent.Of those options, N64. However, who's to say the 3DO wouldn't have taken the Playstation's place... Or as someone else said, the Jaguar.
Those companies were far too incompetent.
Absolutely, but I don't believe any of them would have filled the vacuum left by Sony. Despite what people try to argue in this thread, Sega had a second chance after the Dreamcast and failed just as miserably while newcomer Xbox did respectable numbers. Sega would have still failed catastrophically without the PS1. Nintendo is the one that would have benefited.So was Sega.
Absolutely, but I don't believe any of them would have filled the vacuum left by Sony. Despite what people try to argue in this thread, Sega had a second chance after the Dreamcast and failed just as miserably while newcomer Xbox did respectable numbers. Sega would have still failed catastrophically without the PS1. Nintendo is the one that would have benefited.
I think many posters here are ignoring that the Saturn was $400 compared to $200 for the N64. That little jump in the chart is when they started being put on clearance with the 3 games packed in.In U.S. Sega Saturn stood no chance to be successful as it was.
The system sold pitiful amounts even when PS1 had yet to be available in U.S. and in the beginning when PS1 had a slow start.
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Xbox did not do respectable numbers and would have died if not backed by MS. Nintendo that gen was just as incompetent as Sega.Absolutely, but I don't believe any of them would have filled the vacuum left by Sony. Despite what people try to argue in this thread, Sega had a second chance after the Dreamcast and failed just as miserably while newcomer Xbox did respectable numbers. Sega would have still failed catastrophically without the PS1. Nintendo is the one that would have benefited.
They were a newcomer coming in while PS2 was dominating and Nintendo was an established brand. They still managed to sell 24 million units, more than the Saturn and Dreamcast combined, and more than the Gamecube. Given the market conditions and the fact they were non-existent in Japan, I'd say this was a very respectable number.Xbox did not do respectable numbers and would have died if not backed by MS. Nintendo that gen was just as incompetent as Sega.
One thing that is worth noting is. The Saturn was supposed to have a single SH chip for CPU. They added another one and increased the RAM because of Playstation.The only way it would have been Saturn is if Sega did what Sony did - entice all those big third-party studios to their platform over Nintendo. If Final Fantasy VII, Metal Gear Solid, Resident Evil had all been Saturn exclusives, maybe Sega would be where Sony is today.
The same might have happenedOne thing that is worth noting is. The Saturn was supposed to have a single SH chip for CPU. They added another one and increased the RAM because of Playstation.
If there were no PS1, the Saturn would have been a lot more basic. It wouldn't be able to run those games very well. Plus the distance between that and the N64 would have been huge. Let's not forget that..
Yes, and not only that, without the Sony debacle it's possible the N64 could end up having a CD drive. So, it's really impossible to guess. It's like a domino, if you move one piece everything changes..The same might have happened
with the Nintendo3264.
I explained that in the part that you purposefully ignore. No need to repeat myself.Then why did the Saturn manage to sell a paltry 9M? You'd think if the audience it would have attracted was so large, it would have attracted at least 25M people and the N64 would have been the one to sell fewer than 10M units.
Nothing of that matters. People wanted CDs. Having a console that uses cartridges was like having a walkman that plays cassette tapes instead of having a CD player. Nobody back then, who could afford a CD player, would buy a cassette player.Bullshit. Cartridges offer key advantages over CDs, one of which is much faster load times that were practically non-existent on the N64. However, the extra storage and that they are cheap to manufacture was much more enticing to devs and publishers. People didn't give a shit either way.
By the way how deeply invested you are in this unnecessary console wars equivalent, feeling emotionally hurt because someone is rightfully not willing to worship you super favorite brand, it's safe to assume that you are still a young adult. It's okay, you're still allowed to enjoy your much beloved console manufacturer.You try really hard to pretend you were around and I know you're full of shit when you claim there was ever a debate between the 102M PS1 and 10M Saturn lmao. There never was one. You read up on that years later and act like you were around when the rivalry at the time was firmly between PS1 and N64. Nobody gave a shit about the Saturn.
And I debunked it.I explained that in the part that you purposefully ignore. No need to repeat myself.t
No, they didn't. Devs did because if cheaper prices and bigger storage. Why would the average joe give a shit?Nothing of that matters. People wanted CDs.
And nobody bought the Saturn. That argument worked for the PS2 and DVD players. Not so much for the PS1 and Saturn, or even 3DO that all used CD-ROMs, yet it was a non-factor for all of them but one, sure. The market was flooded with cheapass discmans in 1996 and the first model had come out in 1984. It wasn't some hot new commodity like the PS2's DVD player or the PS3's Blu-Ray. Every radio was outfitted with a CD player.Having a console that uses cartridges was like having a walkman that plays cassette tapes instead of having a CD player. Nobody back then, who could afford a CD player, would buy a cassette player.
Lol beautiful. I don't favor Nintendo or any other brands. You're the one who started the personal attacks and acted like a petulant child because his poor arguments got torn to shreds, but please, tell us how a console that sold like 1M units in Europe and 1.8M in North America was the hot PS1 competitor and not the 64 that outsold it by by a factor of 4 in those markets. Lol.By the way how deeply invested you are in this unnecessary console wars equivalent, feeling emotionally hurt because someone is rightfully not willing to worship you super favorite brand, it's safe to assume that you are still a young adult. It's okay, you're still allowed to enjoy your much beloved console manufacturer.