Support NeoGAF

[IlGialloMondadori]

The handheld market is also far more matured. Many people who started on Switch migrated to Steam Decks or other handhelds that are more open and less expensive. The Switch 2 has competition now whereas it didnt back in 2017.

Yeah, those three million Steam Deck's sold really got Nintendo shaking in their boots.

I love my steam deck, but in every way possible: nah. Switch 2 will quintuple Deck lifetime sales in its first year.

 

[Walter Matthau]

Well the pre order situation looks like this may be the biggest console launch ever.

I'm not going to read too much into it at this stage, but off to a good start considering they haven't announced or mentioned any new entries to their top selling Switch games outside of Mario Kart.

 

[Minsc]

Yeah, those three million Steam Deck's sold really got Nintendo shaking in their boots.

I love my steam deck, but in every way possible: nah. Switch 2 will quintuple Deck lifetime sales in its first year.

Would be more meaningful if Steam Deck wasn't a small drop in the bucket of Steam's audience as a whole to begin with. As it stands, the Steam Deck could never sell another unit, and they still stand equal to Nintendo (or above perhaps).

If Nintendo incurs another Wii U piece of hardware they suffer much more than if the Steam Deck 2 is a flop, because of the way Steam isn't built around the success of a single piece of hardware.

 

[kat_on_the_roof]

I hope it will be a success. Everything else is in the future,

 

[Walter Matthau]

Would be more meaningful if Steam Deck wasn't a small drop in the bucket of Steam's audience as a whole to begin with. As it stands, the Steam Deck could never sell another unit, and they still stand equal to Nintendo (or above perhaps).

If Nintendo incurs another Wii U piece of hardware they suffer much more than if the Steam Deck 2 is a flop, because of the way Steam isn't built around the success of a single piece of hardware.

Where is this conversation going?

They were replying to someone who doesn't think the Switch 2 will be successful because the consumer base has moved onto greener pastures like the Steam Deck. They were pointing out that the volume of Steam Decks sold doesn't suggest this to be true.

How did that spin out to suddenly be about Nintendo vs Steam? Of course Valve doesn't live or die by Deck sales. However successful, it's just a cherry on top of their overall balance sheet.

 

[Minsc]

Where is this conversation going?

They were replying to someone who doesn't think the Switch 2 will be successful because the consumer base has moved onto greener pastures like the Steam Deck. They were pointing out that the volume of Steam Decks sold doesn't suggest this to be true.

How did that spin out to suddenly be about Nintendo vs Steam? Of course Valve doesn't live or die by Deck sales. However successful, it's just a cherry on top of their overall balance sheet.

I dunno, I was just felt like venting a little about all the Switch outsells the Deck 100:1, so the Deck is nothing posts that have built up. Guess my timing wasn't the best, my bad! Sorry.

 

[Walter Matthau]

I dunno, I was just felt like venting a little about all the Switch outsells the Deck 100:1, so the Deck is nothing posts that have built up. Guess my timing wasn't the best, my bad! Sorry.

I hear you. Most here don't seem to understand Valve's motivation behind the Deck. They like to pretend that they tried and failed to take over the console market when Gabe from the start stated specifically that it isn't their ambition (even though it does impact the others to some extent).

 

[IlGialloMondadori]

I dunno, I was just felt like venting a little about all the Switch outsells the Deck 100:1, so the Deck is nothing posts that have built up. Guess my timing wasn't the best, my bad! Sorry.

I didn't say the deck is nothing, I said I love it. It's one of my favourite systems of all time.

But the reality is, this isn't a conversation about steam vs Nintendo or PC vs Nintendo, this is about Switch 2 being a success, and it was suggested that people have moved on to Steam Deck and other platforms and won't buy a switch 2. That's just not true. You can only get Nintendo games on Nintendo hardware, and Nintendo games are popular and high quality, so people will buy Nintendo hardware.

If they want Mario and Zelda and Animal Crossing, they're not going to buy a Steam Deck unless they're emulating/pirating, which is out of reach for most people/too much faffing around. They're just going to buy a switch 2 and call it a day.

 

[IlGialloMondadori]

I hear you. Most here don't seem to understand Valve's motivation behind the Deck. They like to pretend that they tried and failed to take over the console market when Gabe from the start stated specifically that it isn't their ambition (even though it does impact the others to some extent).

I don't think that's true. I think everyone other than PC first people understand it. The confusion comes when Valve/PC fans enter a conversation about whether the switch 2 will succeed and bring up how awesome the deck is so no one will buy a switch 2.

I don't think anyone thinks valve tried to take over the console market. I think some people get confused and think the openness and quality of the deck and other pc handhelds means it's the only choice that people will ever make.

 

[Minsc]

I didn't say the deck is nothing, I said I love it. It's one of my favourite systems of all time.

But the reality is, this isn't a conversation about steam vs Nintendo or PC vs Nintendo, this is about Switch 2 being a success, and it was suggested that people have moved on to Steam Deck and other platforms and won't buy a switch 2. That's just not true. You can only get Nintendo games on Nintendo hardware, and Nintendo games are popular and high quality, so people will buy Nintendo hardware.

If they want Mario and Zelda and Animal Crossing, they're not going to buy a Steam Deck unless they're emulating/pirating, which is out of reach for most people/too much faffing around. They're just going to buy a switch 2 and call it a day.

Yeah, I will buy a Switch 2 for the 1st party I still love. Though I've fallen a bit out of ways with Mario and AC and others, they're still wildly popular for sure. Unlike Final Fantasy (cheap shot).

Looking forward to MP4 and Fire Emblem the most, but I'm sure there'll be a lot of others, I probably have ~60 games on the Switch 1, might be less on the Switch 2, but it'll still have a lot of unique and great games.

I'm excited it has HDR and 1080-2160p at varying FPS, and DLSS and other modern features, for a Nintendo system, along with pioneering the adaptation of SD Express, which I think will find its way in all handhelds within a few years. SD cards are fucking slow.

So I believe Switch 2 will be a success as well, for 1st party. Nintendo still knows how to maintain an IP and keep it relevant and iterate on it for the most part.

 

[Astray]

Depends on what you mean by Success.

If it's purely units sold vs Switch 1, then no. Switch 2 won't be as successful as Switch 1 because the normie market is fickle, and because a lot of said normie market probably has their fill of gaming on the Switch 1. There's also more competition for handhelds happening rn.

But if it's profitability, then yes, it will be very profitable for Nintendo in a similar vein to how the PS5 went for Sony.

 

[IlGialloMondadori]

Yeah, I will buy a Switch 2 for the 1st party I still love. Though I've fallen a bit out of ways with Mario and AC and others, they're still wildly popular for sure. Unlike Final Fantasy (cheap shot).

Looking forward to MP4 and Fire Emblem the most, but I'm sure there'll be a lot of others, I probably have ~60 games on the Switch 1, might be less on the Switch 2, but it'll still have a lot of unique and great games.

I'm excited it has HDR and 1080-2160p at varying FPS, and DLSS and other modern features, for a Nintendo system, along with pioneering the adaptation of SD Express, which I think will find its way in all handhelds within a few years. SD cards are fucking slow.

So I believe Switch 2 will be a success as well, for 1st party. Nintendo still knows how to maintain an IP and keep it relevant and iterate on it for the most part.

I preordered a switch 1 when they announced MP4 for it lol. Have a preorder in for switch 2 to play it finally.

I'll probably play with the steam deck more, but there will be more than enough on switch 2 to justify owning it.

Who am I kidding? I'll buy it, not have time to play anything, and feel guilty about my backlog.

 

[PlayStaytion]

The s2 slim for sure.

 

[Judge Magister]

It will be but not Switch 1 levels of success.

 

[Sinozen]

Based on what evidence of actual consumer outrage?. Or are we just listening to people on niche videogame websites and YouTube channels with very few subscribers and views.

The only view we have of consumer perception at this point is on the internet so if you discount that then may as well not even be having a conversation. It's all speculative at this point.

Their live streams are spammed with drop the price every time they have one now. You can do a deep search with AI and see there is a wide spread negative perception throughout the internet of Nintendo right now. Now how will that effect sales? We'll have to wait and see.

 

[Sinozen]

Yeah, those three million Steam Deck's sold really got Nintendo shaking in their boots.

I love my steam deck, but in every way possible: nah. Switch 2 will quintuple Deck lifetime sales in its first year.

I'm just saying that they don't have a monopoly on handheld gaming like they did at the start of the Switch. There are other alternatives to the Steam Deck. If casuals are getting priced out then that just leaves hardcore gamers and they'll start to gravitate to other platforms if Nintendo pushes too far.

 

[GigaBowser]

I'm just saying that they don't have a monopoly on handheld gaming like they did at the start of the Switch. There are other alternatives to the Steam Deck. If casuals are getting priced out then that just leaves hardcore gamers and they'll start to gravitate to other platforms if Nintendo pushes too far.

whaaaaat?? ahahah switch 150 millions steam deck 4 millions

 

[Minsc]

The only view we have of consumer perception at this point is on the internet so if you discount that then may as well not even be having a conversation. It's all speculative at this point.

Their live streams are spammed with drop the price every time they have one now. You can do a deep search with AI and see there is a wide spread negative perception throughout the internet of Nintendo right now. Now how will that effect sales? We'll have to wait and see.

To me all that noise about "drop the price" just screams it's going to sell out for a long ass time. That's a huge number of people who will end up eating their words and get the device / games. The number of people on streaming chats with any sort of willpower is basically 0. The fact they're in the chat in the first place means they're past halfway to ordering the hardware.

 

[Deerock71]

The wails of 'DROP THE PRICE!' while Nintendo gears up for a historic launch.

 

[Mozza]

I'm just saying that they don't have a monopoly on handheld gaming like they did at the start of the Switch. There are other alternatives to the Steam Deck. If casuals are getting priced out then that just leaves hardcore gamers and they'll start to gravitate to other platforms if Nintendo pushes too far.

It looks like a bit of a monopoly to be honest. And those alternatives nobody knows about. Well not the mass market at any rate. Niche PC handhelds at best.

 

[Kataploom]

Yeah, those three million Steam Deck's sold really got Nintendo shaking in their boots.

I love my steam deck, but in every way possible: nah. Switch 2 will quintuple Deck lifetime sales in its first year.

You guys might have an agenda or something, three million? They already surpassed it and currently there are an outstanding amount between 3.7M and 4M, believe it or not!

 

[ResurrectedContrarian]

gradual success in the long run; probably a rough first year or so getting off the ground

 

[Deerock71]

You guys might have an agenda or something, three million? They already surpassed it and currently there are an outstanding amount between 3.7M and 4M, believe it or not!

Is this serious? That will be squashed on opening day.

 

[Celine]

"I don't see that happening. With that price, that paywall and that game line up, I see it below 40M after 5 years. Maybe even below 30M units."

Search for all "price" references in the first page, then look up how often "value" (as in value proposition) was talked:

G

Thread 'Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?'

Jan 13, 2017

I always love to retrospectively read GAF's prediction threads and see how many crows are being served, the thread placing WiiU/XB first and Sony disappearing or failing with the PS4 before this gen started is so much fun!

So now that we have enough details about the price, specs, launch line up and upcoming games, how do you think the Switch would fair? will it be Nintendo's last console? will it be a big success and their strategy going forward for the next good years?

To make it more specific and interesting write down how many units do you expect this to sell through its...

• Gurish
• Replies: 5,275
• Forum: Gaming Discussion

• 
• 
• 
• 

Never change.

 

[SNG32]

I see it being a flop yes all the early adopters will buy it but I think after that at the price it is now tarrifs I think it will do significantly worse. Usually the successors to Nintendos first iteration of a console usually drops of flops in sales.

I honestly think that Nintendo will start testing out PC with their second party offering games this gen.

 

[Mozza]

I see it being a flop yes all the early adopters will buy it but I think after that at the price it is now tarrifs I think it will do significantly worse. Usually the successors to Nintendos first iteration of a console usually drops of flops in sales.

I honestly think that Nintendo will start testing out PC with their second party offering games this gen.

Not happening. Nintendo have combined home and handheld devices so even a weaker generation like the Wii U and 3DS they sold around 90 million consoles. What sort of number aew you suggesting they will sell with the Switch 2?..

 

[kevboard]

I'm just saying that they don't have a monopoly on handheld gaming like they did at the start of the Switch. There are other alternatives to the Steam Deck. If casuals are getting priced out then that just leaves hardcore gamers and they'll start to gravitate to other platforms if Nintendo pushes too far.

they absolutely have a monopoly in the handheld market.
150 million units while the second place is about 3~4 million units...

I wonder if we combined every single PC handheld sold if we'd reach even 10 million

 

[SNG32]

Not happening. Nintendo have combined home and handheld devices so even a weaker generation like the Wii U and 3DS they sold around 90 million consoles. What sort of number aew you suggesting they will sell with the Switch 2?..

Lifetime will be 60 - 70 million switch 1 got a good chunk of sales during Covid.

 

[GigaBowser]

200 millions price mean nothings everthing goings up bookmarked

 

[blacktout]

Lifetime will be 60 - 70 million switch 1 got a good chunk of sales during Covid.

If you wanted to be *extremely* generous, you could argue that the Switch gained around 15 million units in sales because of COVID, and that's if you assume that it would have declined meaningfully in 2020 and 2021 vs 2019, even though it had seen year-on-year growth in every previous year.

The reality is probably between 5 and 10 million units, but either way you're talking about a relatively small chunk of the 150 million+ and counting lifetime sales of the system.

 

[Nikodemos]

People bought an overpriced hackjob DLC sold as a full game, so of course it will be a success.

 

[Mozza]

they absolutely have a monopoly in the handheld market.
150 million units while the second place is about 3~4 million units...

I wonder if we combined every single PC handheld sold if we'd reach even 10 million

No...

 

[ResurrectedContrarian]

I do miss simple Nintendo handhelds

The great part about something like the GBA was that it kept alive entire genres from previous generations that were deemed to old fashioned for consoles. You'd have never seen a pixellated masterpiece like Metroid Fusion or even Minish Cap on the main consoles in that year, but those games thrived on the GBA.

I wish they'd split out a retro handheld and make more sequels to their classic franchises on it.

 

[Sinozen]

they absolutely have a monopoly in the handheld market.
150 million units while the second place is about 3~4 million units...

I wonder if we combined every single PC handheld sold if we'd reach even 10 million

It looks like a bit of a monopoly to be honest. And those alternatives nobody knows about. Well not the mass market at any rate. Niche PC handhelds at best.

Okay, yes, they have a monopoly, but there are other options out there now is what I was saying. I didn't realize how behind the sales were for the Steam Deck when I said that. Such a shame. If Valve made it available in stores and advertised it'd be a much different story. Hopefully that's the case with the Steam Deck 2.

 

[kevboard]

Okay, yes, they have a monopoly, but there are other options out there now is what I was saying. I didn't realize how behind the sales were for the Steam Deck when I said that. Such a shame. If Valve made it available in stores and advertised it'd be a much different story. Hopefully that's the case with the Steam Deck 2.

I don't think they would have a chance even with tons of PR.

Nintendo has always had an iron grip on the handheld market.
the closest anyone has ever come to actually competing was Sony with the PSP. the PSP was the only actual meaningful competition they ever had in 36 years of making handhelds.
and the difference there was 154 million for the DS, and 80 million for PSP.
that was still nearly a 2x in sales for Nintendo, and it was the closest handheld generation sales in history.

it's not super obvious why Nintendo just can't lose in the handheld market. maybe it's because the GameBoy just had such an enormous cultural impact that they forever will be seen as the default handheld. or it's simply due to Pokémon's continued success.

either way, it's really damn hard to even get to 50% of their handheld sales.

 

[tr1p1ex]

I do miss simple Nintendo handhelds

The great part about something like the GBA was that it kept alive entire genres from previous generations that were deemed to old fashioned for consoles. You'd have never seen a pixellated masterpiece like Metroid Fusion or even Minish Cap on the main consoles in that year, but those games thrived on the GBA.

I wish they'd split out a retro handheld and make more sequels to their classic franchises on it.

The 2d console! Sprites only. No polygons.

 

[IlGialloMondadori]

Okay, yes, they have a monopoly, but there are other options out there now is what I was saying. I didn't realize how behind the sales were for the Steam Deck when I said that. Such a shame. If Valve made it available in stores and advertised it'd be a much different story. Hopefully that's the case with the Steam Deck 2.

I dunno, I don't think having it in stores would help considerably. Other pc handhelds are in stores, and the total sales are a drop in the bucket. 6 million total across all brands over the three years the deck has been out, as of two months ago. The issue is they're pcs. That's awesome, but it's going to only appeal to certain people. A lot of those people already have a pc, and won't buy a handheld pc, they want the most power possible.

A switch has Nintendo games, which appeals to everyone, and the only place to get them is Nintendo hardware.

 

[Sinozen]

I dunno, I don't think having it in stores would help considerably. Other pc handhelds are in stores, and the total sales are a drop in the bucket. 6 million total across all brands over the three years the deck has been out, as of two months ago. The issue is they're pcs. That's awesome, but it's going to only appeal to certain people. A lot of those people already have a pc, and won't buy a handheld pc, they want the most power possible.

A switch has Nintendo games, which appeals to everyone, and the only place to get them is Nintendo hardware.

I think it would if it was user friendly and communicated clearly what it is and what it can do. The Deck has come a loooong way since it launched a few years ago, but it still has some hiccups that require tinkering. If you don't know it boots in big picture which is a streamlined UI for the average user. For those that want more functionality they can go into the desktop mode.

But Nintendo is such a recognizable brand with huge IPs. I suspect that's what really sets them ahead of competitors above all else. Valve doesn't really need to compete though and clearly doesn't care to.

 

[Banjo64]

It's going to shift over 100m units so I'd say yes, the first party software will continue to move unprecedented numbers too.

 

[Mozza]

I don't think they would have a chance even with tons of PR.

Nintendo has always had an iron grip on the handheld market.
the closest anyone has ever come to actually competing was Sony with the PSP. the PSP was the only actual meaningful competition they ever had in 36 years of making handhelds.
and the difference there was 154 million for the DS, and 80 million for PSP.
that was still nearly a 2x in sales for Nintendo, and it was the closest handheld generation sales in history.

it's not super obvious why Nintendo just can't lose in the handheld market. maybe it's because the GameBoy just had such an enormous cultural impact that they forever will be seen as the default handheld. or it's simply due to Pokémon's continued success.

either way, it's really damn hard to even get to 50% of their handheld sales.

It's just very difficult for some on here to understand how much draw the hybrid console has to people. Most may not even use the Switch to it's full potential in this area. But it's the simple fact it offers you both options. No wonder it's a massive success.

 

[kevboard]

It's just very diffuculdt for some on here to understand how much draw the hybrid console has to people. Most may not even use the Switch to it's full potential in this area. But it's the simple fact it offers you both options. No wonder it's a massive success.

that explains the Switch but even before they were untouchable in the handheld market.

I think the mindshare or Nintendo handhelds in combination with Pokémon were the main formula that made them beat any competition in the space before.

 

[ResurrectedContrarian]

Switch is primarily a handheld, I would bet money that if you had a thorough analysis of all players (including all the kids), you'd find that it is played significantly more in handheld mode than docked, overall.