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[Juice]

I know this is probably going to turn into one of those relatively, "no shit," questions, but I think there's interesting room for discussion on the topic.

Now that 2.00 users can downgrade to 1.50 (I just did successfully today), I've noticed that just about every game can be had at a few hundred megabytes for download off a number of torrent sites. I only imagine as the number of people with unsigned executable able PSPs skyrockets in the next couple of weeks, piracy traffic is going to match that growth.

My question to all of you, is this: will this ease of piracy ultimately start significantly curbing game sales? Especially considering that several games load and run faster off the memory stick. Since Sony's taking a loss on the PSP as it is, if their software sales start evaporating at the hand of this piracy, just what amount of shit do you forsee hitting the fan?

Will this be like every other relatively insubstantial cry about console game piracy (including the rampant, but lesser talked about GBA) and ultimately not really factor into sales discussions, or will this sudden change and its level of awareness noticeably negatively impact software sales for the PSP in the long-term?

 

[3rdman]

No shit!

 

[Wario64]

RIP PSP

9/27/2005

 

[Smiles and Cries]

PSP is DOOMED

 

[The Faceless Master]

let's just look at it this way... people didn't even need a GBA to pirate GBA games and that didn't flop...

 

[Red Scarlet]

Wario..where's disc 2 for your av? Aren't Suikoden 1+2 on one UMD disc..which would make MGS3S the 2nd disc?

 

[Letter to Elise]

let's just look at it this way... people didn't even need a GBA to pirate GBA games and that didn't flop...

Makes sense.

 

[AndreasNystrom]

Ok, lets see some history...

C64 was a huge sucess cause you could get hundreds of games for free.
Amiga was a big hit, aswell as Atari, cause you could easily get games from BBS
Playstation 1 was the same. Easy to get games on irc there.

etc etc.

 

[DCharlie]

"let's just look at it this way... people didn't even need a GBA to pirate GBA games and that didn't flop...'

the problem with that is in order to actually use what you downloaded for GBA , you had to buy a non-standard flash card and a writer... then you had to download the required software and find the roms.

with the PSP, everything you need is included - all you need is a bigger , readily available flash card, and the rom. It's just a case of dragging and dropping.

the tricky part is downgrading the machine i guess. But that is a one off thing.

 

[Wario64]

Wario..where's disc 2 for your av? Aren't Suikoden 1+2 on one UMD disc..which would make MGS3S the 2nd disc?

disc 3 refers to the Metal Gear Solid 3 Subsistence 3-disc limited edition being released in Japan. 3rd disc only in limited quantities, which is a 3.5 hour 'movie' of all MGS3 cutscenes re-edited with additional footage, and supposedly it's for japan only!

 

[Excelion]

I've read reports where Sony thinks it's main revenue on PSP will be movies not games(as crazy as that seems.)

 

[Letter to Elise]

I've read reports where Sony thinks it's main revenue on PSP will be movies not games(as crazy as that seems.)

Link?

 

[Red Scarlet]

disc 3 refers to the Metal Gear Solid 3 Subsistence 3-disc limited edition being released in Japan. 3rd disc only in limited quantities, which is a 3.5 hour 'movie' of all MGS3 cutscenes re-edited with additional footage, and supposedly it's for japan only!

Ohhhh okie doke.

 

[The Faceless Master]

the problem with that is in order to actually use what you downloaded for GBA , you had to buy a non-standard flash card and a writer... then you had to download the required software and find the roms.

with the PSP, everything you need is included - all you need is a bigger , readily available flash card, and the rom. It's just a case of dragging and dropping.

the tricky part is downgrading the machine i guess. But that is a one off thing.

completely.
missed.
the point.

Spoiler

sortalume

 

[jiggle]

Did it hurt the US sales when it became widely available for 1.50?
Of course it can be argued the sales would've been even higher without it. *shrug*

 

[AZ Greg]

People asked this same question when 1.5 was hacked. Sony will just release a 2.5 patch or something that includes some new feature like a word processor or better media features. That combined with something like GTA:LCS or another big game requiring you to update. Then it will be 2.5 vs everything lower just as it was with 1.51 and higher vs 1.5 and lower.

 

[drohne]

i thought ease of piracy was one of sony's underhanded competitive strategies. and that piracy is the only reason we're not all playing gamecubes. or something.

 

[Excelion]

Link?

http://biz.gamedaily.com/features.asp?article_id=10597

Monday, September 19, 2005
UMD gaining popularity
Hollywood Gets Boost from PSP

A lot of people doubted that Sony's UMD format could really take off, but it seems that more and more Hollywood studios are embracing the PSP during a year in which box-office sales and attendance figures are down. UMD sales are expected to generate about $250 million in revenues for 2005.


When the PlayStation 2 made its debut in America, many gamers found themselves watching lots of DVD movies on their new game console. It appears that the PlayStation Portable is in a similar situation, especially since the video game offerings for the handheld have been a bit slim lately.

UMD sales on the rise
Although a proprietary format, Sony's UMD disc has been faring better than expected, with many PSP owners enjoying the DVD-like quality of the movies on the PSP's bright widescreen display. According to Tom Adams, an analyst with Adams Media Research, Hollywood Studios have sold almost 5 million units of UMD movies thus far, with some titles selling hundreds of thousands of units.

"We've been pleasantly surprised by how well movies have done," John Koller, PSP product manager at Sony Computer Entertainment America told Investor's Business Daily. "A lot of retailers have been taken aback as well."

[ "When we saw the picture clarity, it blew us away. It gave us great confidence, and that's why we supported it at launch," Gordon Ho, senior vice president of Disney's home-video division ]


This success has also been a boon for Hollywood in a year that has not seen many big hits—box-office revenues and attendance figures are down significantly from last year, according to Newsweek, and DVD sales are no longer growing at the rapid pace that they used to. UMD movies, however, are projected to generate approximately $250 million in revenues for 2005.

PSPorn
Currently, there are about 150 movies, animated films, music videos and TV compilations available on UMD, and over 250 are expected by the close of 2005, which would actually make it the most widely supported new video format since DVD was introduced in 1997.

However, what could really propel the UMD format, for better or worse, is porn. There's no denying it: sex sells. Porn could be that "killer app"—the Viagra, if you will—for the UMD business. Pornography companies like Vivid don't have access to the technology to produce UMD films. It seems that Vivid cofounder Steven Hirsch is chomping at the bit to make porn for PSP. Hirsch said he's waiting for Sony to make UMD technology available to companies like his, and he might even have his team start shooting content specifically for the UMD format.

So the next time you're on the train or bus and the person next to you whips out a PSP, you just may want to move to another seat...

http://www.modojo.com/articles/blogs/7/

By the end of this year, there will be more movies released on UMD in under a year than there were DVD movies released in 1997. Sony sold more PSPs in its first week-500,000 units-than the consumer electronics industry sold DVD players in its first year at retail in 1997-305,000, according to The Digital Entertainment Group. It took two years and a sub-$300 price point for DVD movies to take off. PSP hit the ground running and hasn't looked back.

While I can't find the particular article that I was refering to. This clearly shows you(that in the U.S. atleast) UMD movies are outselling games by a considerable margin. Not to mention that Blockbuster and other rental chains have started renting UMD movies aswell. Sony struck a goldmine.

 

[Deku]

I don't believe Sony get royalties from UMD movies other studios make since they opened up the format.

 

[DCharlie]

"Hollywood Studios have sold almost 5 million units of UMD movies thus far, with some titles selling hundreds of thousands of units. "

O_O

 

[Tain]

I'd be surprised if anything less than the vast, vast majority of PSP owners only use the 32 meg stick, actually. So no, I don't think it'll have a huge effect.

 

[quetz67]

Soyn makes money from selling huge mem sticks and the game developers lose money

 

[DCharlie]

"This clearly shows you(that in the U.S. atleast) UMD movies are outselling games by a considerable margin."

surely this isn't going to make the games developers that happy? I mean... having to go against a cheaper form of viable portable entertainment is potentially going to cut into their sales base.

 

[Scrow]

let's just look at it this way... people didn't even need a GBA to pirate GBA games and that didn't flop...

and no doubt pretty soon you wont even need a PSP to pirate PSP games, if that isn't already the case.

 

[Hurricane_Chris]

surely this isn't going to make the games developers that happy? I mean... having to go against a cheaper form of viable portable entertainment is potentially going to cut into their sales base.

dvd playback ended up not being a deathblow to ps2's tie ratio once good games started streaming out. when/if the same steady stream of good games on psp start hitting we will probably see the same so as long as developers get to making good games it shouldn't be a problem (i hope).

the weird thing is, i couldn't and still can't see the market for people who want to watch movies on the go... how often are people in a situation where they can keep their eyes glued to a portable for 1.5-2 hours?

 

[Yusaku]

Soyn makes money from selling huge mem sticks and the game developers lose money

SCEA doesn't see a dime from memory stick sales.

 

[DCharlie]

"how often are people in a situation where they can keep their eyes glued to a portable for 1.5-2 hours?"

Aki is nigh on 1 hour there to the Hibiya, and nigh on 1 hour back

1 movie!

 

[eLGee]

I dunno if it's gonna hurt Sony, but I think they'll sell more PSP's now.

 

[Kiriku]

Of course piracy will hurt to some degree, but I don't think it will be totally rampant. Sony will keep forcing people to update their PSP through their games, which will always create a hassle for pirates..at least the casual ones.
Also, I think there are people who don't really care about piracy on their PSP...they just wanna buy a few games, a couple of movies and play them every now and then, rather than sitting in front of the computer downloading games, downgrading their PSP and whatnot. I think many handheld owners simply aren't "hardcore" enough to care.

 

[Juice]

I dunno if it's gonna hurt Sony, but I think they'll sell more PSP's now.

Yeah, I have to imagine that Sony's going to give up and just make some sort of change to the hardware that would require a physical modification to the unit to get it to run software off the memory stick at all (signed or unsigned). They really need to nip this in the bud if they're going to see profits on software.

Regardless, if they sell a bunch of PSPs because people know they can get away with never buying games, Sony won't even have money to make off the peripherals (aside from their own branded memory sticks). They'd just take the loss and that'd be it.

This is a lot different than modding an Xbox or PS2

 

[Ghost]

On this subject (well not really) I got told today by a GAME employee that Sony wont release any more PSPs into the UK until November "For Christmas"...no idea how that works, I just want my fucking PSP.

 

[Hurricane_Chris]

Do normal people even know aobut the 1.5? If you go to a game store (EB, Gamestop, etc) and do a poll of people buying a PSP or PSP games about whether or not they know abou the exploits what % of them would have a clue?

Aki is nigh on 1 hour there to the Hibiya, and nigh on 1 hour back

1 movie!

DC do you even own any UMD movies other than pr0n ones?

I usually put 24 and Lost episodes on my memory stick and watch them while on the train so I guess the time is there for some people (although I'd think moreso than in Japan, I mean in the US people don't commute!).

I guess I should rephrase my question: "who's gonna buy a $20-$40 UMD movie, spend 1.5+ hours watching it on his psp then ever be in a situation where he wants to watch that same movie on his psp again?"

Buying a DVD and ripping to memstick and watching on a flight or something I understand, buying a movie where you can only watch it on a PSP I don't get...

 

[DCharlie]

"DC do you even own any UMD movies other than pr0n ones? "

Spoiler

Man, how could people not own a pr0n UMD called "Do you f*ck me in the bus?"

YEAH! i own Saw, Akira, and 250 Premiership Goals ! ... well, the last two aren't here yet, but they should arrive tomorrow.

The UK is getting some kick ass UMDs actually - The Office , The League of Gentlemen, The LoG movie, Little Britain... those are all classics that you could watch again and again.

"I guess I should rephrase my question: "who's gonna buy a $20-$40 UMD movie, spend 1.5+ hours watching it on his psp then ever be in a situation where he wants to watch that same movie on his psp again?""

i said i'd never, but the quality is significantly better than the usual rips.

"Buying a DVD and ripping to memstick and watching on a flight or something I understand, buying a movie where you can only watch it on a PSP I don't get..."

it was a "touch me try me" thing - not sure i'll make a habit of it, certainly not in japan...

... ah , hold on...
that's a lie...

i bought Hoshi no Koe....

 

[Kangu]

How much does Sony actually make from UMD movies though? I'm thinking at most they would get a small UMD licensing fee, akin to what members of the DVD consortium get. Doesn't seem like it could replace revenue from games.

 

[duckroll]

"Hollywood Studios have sold almost 5 million units of UMD movies thus far, with some titles selling hundreds of thousands of units. "

That's an outright lie no matter how says it and how many times. Very few titles have actually sold more than 100k, and hitting 100-200k doesn't equate "hundreds of thousands" in any stretch of the imagination.

 

[dog$]

I don't think it will. It would take a very long time to make some sort of dent, since people like us are the only ones who will bother at first, and word of this exploit will have to spread by word of mouth.

i thought ease of piracy was one of sony's underhanded competitive strategies.

Yeah, every time I think this it gets refuted but whatever. I'd believe it.

If I were Sony, I'd assert that every minute someone spends looking at anything related to the PSP, they're not looking at the [DS].

 

[Yusaku]

Yeah, every time I think this it gets refuted but whatever. I'd believe it.

Xbox was much more pirate friendly than PS2, didn't magically make Xbox more popular.

 

[theREBELins]

Will the PSP Downgrade Ultimately Hurt Sony?

Doubt it

 

[AndreasNystrom]

Xbox was much more pirate friendly than PS2, didn't magically make Xbox more popular.

hehe, well here it was!. The cost to modify a PS2 was way higher then Xbox.
And xbox had the harddrive etc. So its popular here, and the parents actually say its good since they dont have to buy any expensive games etc.

 

[Kiriku]

hehe, well here it was!. The cost to modify a PS2 was way higher then Xbox.
And xbox had the harddrive etc. So its popular here, and the parents actually say its good since they dont have to buy any expensive games etc.

Are you saying Xbox is more popular than PS2 in (I assume) Sweden? I'd like to see some numbers to back that up, because I seriously doubt it. Although I do believe that Xbox is more popular here than in most other countries.

 

[dark10x]

the problem with that is in order to actually use what you downloaded for GBA , you had to buy a non-standard flash card and a writer... then you had to download the required software and find the roms.

Yeah, you really did miss that point there.

Xbox was much more pirate friendly than PS2, didn't magically make Xbox more popular.

Ha ha, I dunno about that. It didn't make it more popular than PS2, true, but I'd say it certainly added to the overall popularity of the platform and opinions that people held on it.

 

[DCharlie]

"Yeah, you really did miss that point there. "

i'm still ill - it took me about 3 hours to work it out...

Back to the topic though... something is hurting the PSP at the moment (in Japan), but what the hell is it? It's missing a certain X factor that's stopping it from taking off....

 

[AndreasNystrom]

Are you saying Xbox is more popular than PS2 in (I assume) Sweden? I'd like to see some numbers to back that up, because I seriously doubt it. Although I do believe that Xbox is more popular here than in most other countries.

In whole sweden?, no.
Where i Live, and the people i know. Yes.
Some of them would never have bought one if it wasnt for the piracy.

 

[Gattsu25]

That's an outright lie no matter how says it and how many times. Very few titles have actually sold more than 100k, and hitting 100-200k doesn't equate "hundreds of thousands" in any stretch of the imagination.

um...wouldn't 200K be "Hundreds of Thousands"?

 

[Razoric]

let's just look at it this way... people didn't even need a GBA to pirate GBA games and that didn't flop...

The difference is people were downloading GBA emu's to play GBA games.

For PSP, they are hacking the firmware to play GBA games.

 

[Juice]

i'm still ill - it took me about 3 hours to work it out...

Back to the topic though... something is hurting the PSP at the moment (in Japan), but what the hell is it? It's missing a certain X factor that's stopping it from taking off....

Does X = must-buy software?

I think it might.

 

[neptunes]

It could hurt sony some, but I don't see the mass market having a clue on how to run this stuff, let alone them spending +$100 on memory sticks the size of quarter.

Sony could have avoided this to an extent, they've always acknowledged the homebrew development community and released consumer devkits (Net yaroze, Linux PS2) so they should have done the same for the psp.

Though I could see sony doing stealth updates in the future, and the masses wouldn't have a clue...


"Checking for updates"
"INSERT AC ADAPTER TO CONTINUE, PLEASE DO NOT TURN OFF"
:wait 3 minutes:
"DONE, YOU MAY CONTINUE"

 

[swordsman]

No, I don't think it will hurt $ony very much.
It will stimulate the peoples more to going to buy the PSP to experience the nice stuffs.

How many peoples are going to buy PSP just for homebrews.

10 of the 100 yes...

I can't wait to downgrade my EU PSP (v2.0) to 1.5, but will going to miss the web browser stuff though

 

[DarienA]

Every time a machine's copy protection is busted open we get this question... and each time the answer is know with generally the same explanation. The majority of videogame users are casual and won't notice or care.

 

[dark10x]

It could hurt sony some, but I don't see the mass market having a clue on how to run this stuff, let alone them spending +$100 on memory sticks the size of quarter.

Sony could have avoided this to an extent, they've always acknowledged the homebrew development community and released consumer devkits (Net yaroze, Linux PS2) so they should have done the same for the psp.

Though I could see sony doing stealth updates in the future, and the masses wouldn't have a clue...


"Checking for updates"
"INSERT AC ADAPTER TO CONTINUE, PLEASE DO NOT TURN OFF"
:wait 3 minutes:
"DONE, YOU MAY CONTINUE"

That wouldn't exactly be classified as a stealth update...