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Will this be the defining holiday season for Xbox One?

Mik317

Member
Why do people think we know everything that will come out this year already? Nintendo and Sony do some stupid ass stuff but I am pretty sure neither will allow a holiday season go by without something of note (or at least they shouldn't...). Whether or not it is truly big or not doesnt matter...they will have something to push and it is possible we don't know about it as of right now. Delays happen and they adjust accordance.
 

CCIE

Banned
MS can't even win in their own territory with a cheaper console - this "war" is already over. The PS4 had no games last year and still kicked its butt in sales. People just don't care anymore except for MS zealots. And it will be inexplicable when MS loses the year yet again this Fall. They just aren't going to beat perception. Perception is that the one is a weak, media machine with inferior third party ports. Whether that is true is irrelevant.
 
MS can't even win in their own territory with a cheaper console - this "war" is already over. The PS4 had no games last year and still kicked its butt in sales. People just don't care anymore except for MS zealots. And it will be inexplicable when MS loses the year yet again this Fall. They just aren't going to beat perception. Perception is that the one is a weak, media machine with inferior third party ports. Whether that is true is irrelevant.

So what's your take on the OP? Do you think the XBO has a good lineup for the holidays?
 
Microsoft's biggest issue, IMO, is that the XB1 is perceived to be a lesser value than the PS4. Some gamers might agree with that sentiment, some might feel they are equal, and some might even feel XB1 is superior (depending on features, exclusives, and tastes that are relevant, not on sheer spec sheets). NPD results indicate that the only conditions that XB1 triumphs over PS4 so far are when Sony literally doesn't have any PS4 on store shelves, or when MS is "giving away the store" by not only noticeably undercutting Sony's price, but giving away significant free games. That strategy carried MS through the holiday season, but it's not a winning strategy in the long term and it certainly isn't financially responsible. I am not personally of the belief that Microsoft will continue to subsidize the console to that extent if it's not pushing them towards the #1 position. Expenses have to be justified and if it's not moving them out of the #2 spot, it's money that could be better spent on other things.

Do we have any numbers on how much money MS is making/losing with the Xbox division (AFAIK). You need to factor in 360 too.
Plus raw numbers of sold hardware don't mean as much, as long as no one knows how much money is being made on each console. MS has good security, so people are comfortable giving payment details to MS. XBL is really stable compared to PSN, so content delivery works way better and people buy more content. To me playing a movie on Xbox video works just as flawless as playing one from a harddrive.

Anyways, even if X1 doesn't have as many X1 owners as they whish, they are supporting them with some amazing games and neat little deals (Fast and F.).
I am happy with them, and will look into getting a WinPhone at the end of next year. A surface will be mine, as soon as I can afford the good one.
 
So what's your take on the OP? Do you think the XBO has a good lineup for the holidays?

lol -- exactly. Wow. Not sure why some are taking what the OP said in a straight up console war view.

Maybe because the OP asked a broad question that is open for interpretation?

I mean I interpreted the question as, since Xbox One has a better lineup this holiday, will it outsell the competition?
 

Wil348

Member
I would wait until E3. At the moment, Sony's exclusives are spread throughout the year, but if Quantum Break is actually delayed, MS only have Halo and Forza to fall back on again, along with a timed exclusive. But like I said, it's best to wait until E3.
 
Why do people think we know everything that will come out this year already? Nintendo and Sony do some stupid ass stuff but I am pretty sure neither will allow a holiday season go by without something of note (or at least they shouldn't...). Whether or not it is truly big or not doesnt matter...they will have something to push and it is possible we don't know about it as of right now. Delays happen and they adjust accordance.
Wii Music and Animal Crossing City Folk (after everyone played the shit out of Wild World). Forgot which year.

Edit: not saying there isn't anythjng for this year, just wanted to point out that epic year.
 

wapplew

Member
I think as long as MS can keep 3rd party support for the rest of the gen, sold enough to not let 3rd party think port game to Xbox one is wasting money, they will be fine.

We don't know how much a network/ecosystem effect will play out next gen, we thought it will be huge but this gen told us the opposite.
So, I don't think PS4 is too big to fail yet.
 
Is there a source for this claim?

What claim?

In the short term the Xbox One is not as profitable as it would have been if it could sell the same # of units without the price cuts, without the bundles.

I didn't say they were bleeding money (IE: Losing money), I said they were bleeding profits (IE: Making less than they otherwise could).

For a company like Microsoft, being profitable is not the goal. Being profitable enough that those $ couldn't be making more money elsewhere is the goal. And if it's not doing this, it's not successful, even if they are making a profit. Outselling the PS4 is irrelevant, other than how it affects this goal.
 
I think as long as MS can keep 3rd party support for the rest of the gen, sold enough to not let 3rd party think port game to Xbox one is wasting money, they will be fine.

We don't know how much a network/ecosystem effect will play out next gen, we thought it will be huge but this gen told us the opposite.
So, I don't think PS4 is too big to fail yet.

A simple look at each companies market cap (MS 300 vs Sony 30 Billion €) pretty much tells the whole story.
You can check out MS earnings releases here.
http://www.microsoft.com/Investor/E...gs/SegmentResults/S2/FY15/Q1/Performance.aspx

I looked over it and MS doesn't even have their own segment for Gaming, even less so for Xbox. It's "computing and gaming hardware".
This is how unimportant Xbox is in the big picture for MS. They will eat the losses and reevaluate, after Win 10 is rolled out.
So where is all this concern trolling coming from?
 

Docflem

Member
A simple look at each companies market cap (MS 300 vs Sony 30 Billion €) pretty much tells the whole story.
You can check out MS earnings releases here.
http://www.microsoft.com/Investor/E...gs/SegmentResults/S2/FY15/Q1/Performance.aspx

I looked over it and MS doesn't even have their own segment for Gaming, even less so for Xbox. It's "computing and gaming hardware".
This is how unimportant Xbox is in the big picture for MS. They will eat the losses and reevaluate, after Win 10 is rolled out.
So where is all this concern trolling coming from?

Like I said before, the threat is not that MS goes bankrupt, the threat is that the minor segment of MS investors that want the company out of the gaming sector grows. MS could in theory eat billions of loss, but their inverters wont let them. The fact that MS doesn't report xbox one numbers lends to the idea that they need to prop the division up with a more successful one.

Also people would have to be crazy if they think MS didn't take a major loss last holiday.
 
I think the OP was pretty clear in specifying "This holiday season". Nothing before and nothing beyond. Then you went on rambling about "this 'war' is already over", "MS zealots" etc...

What do you mean I went on rambling? That was my first and only post in this thread.
 
Defining Season? No. A good Season? Yep.

I think that within the next couple of years, we'll see the xbone kick it up a notch, especially as we're heading further into Spencer's/Nadella's Xbox era.

This year is looking good, but not over the top good; especially if quantum break is delayed.

But then again, E3 is in a couple of months, for all we know MS, Sony and Nintendo could have some hidden suprises up their sleeves.
 

kyser73

Member
It'll have a good holiday season in NA if it comes with bundles & value-add like store vouchers that bring it on at $125 less than the PS4, same as last year.

If Sony bring it on price in a big way it will still have a 'good' holiday, but won't be chipping 50% off of the PS4 lead again.
 
Like I said before, the threat is not that MS goes bankrupt, the threat is that the minor segment of MS investors that want the company out of the gaming sector grows. MS could in theory eat billions of loss, but their inverters wont let them. The fact that MS doesn't report xbox one numbers lends to the idea that they need to prop the division up with a more successful one.

Also people would have to be crazy if they think MS didn't take a major loss last holiday.

Yeah, I agree. They are kinda hiding the X1 in those reports. Accumulation with 360 numbers helps them for now, when the 360 finally fades away we get a clearer picture.
For an investor in MS the X1 is just small change in the bigger picture though. How the new business model around Win10 will work out will be much more important. Also how Dynamics NAV can steal marketshare from SAP will be big.
You can explain investors easily that the sunk cost into X1 pays back in form of engaging young customers, Data mine the crap out of those XBL accounts, utilize server infrastructure outside of business hours and establish a presence in peoples living room.
But you are right, once those sunk costs get too high, they will bury the Xbox brand right next to Zune.
 

Docflem

Member
Yeah, I agree. They are kinda hiding the X1 in those reports. Accumulation with 360 numbers helps them for now, when the 360 finally fades away we get a clearer picture.
For an investor in MS the X1 is just small change in the bigger picture though. How the new business model around Win10 will work out will be much more important. Also how Dynamics NAV can steal marketshare from SAP will be big.
You can explain investors easily that the sunk cost into X1 pays back in form of engaging young customers, Data mine the crap out of those XBL accounts, utilize server infrastructure outside of business hours and establish a presence in peoples living room.
But you are right, once those sunk costs get too high, they will bury the Xbox brand right next to Zune.

Overall I don't think it's very likely, as other before have pointed out Xbox is MS's only "cool" brand and I think that does count for something. Also you brought something else up, I think the integration with windows 10 as a service could be far more "defining" than any holiday, although I think if MS wants 3rd parties to keep think it's a no brainier to port to the one they can't stay behind 2-1 like they could be right now. It's not enough to even just "win" the US, I think they really need to get a few more countries on their side because those are the massively growing markets.
 

Chris1

Member
Also people would have to be crazy if they think MS didn't take a major loss last holiday.

On what, hardware? Absolutely. Xbox as a whole? Maybe not. What they are losing on hardware can be made back up in a years subscription and a game or two.
 

BokehKing

Banned
Well as I said before, this is going to play a role in them focusing on North America since NA is really the only big territory in which things are pretty evenly split in terms of "I'm getting what my friends have". There's not an unanimous console here like there was last gen with 360 vs. PS3.

It's a done deal for most territories outside of NA though -- PS4 is the "console my friends have".
Well if Microsoft only cares about America, then I guess whatever, that was apparent since the system was launched.

Doesn't change the fact that outside of video game forums, Xbox One still has the bad rep. Only thing Xbox has going for it is 20 million people with ps4 are not going to buy a ps4 again.
 

BokehKing

Banned
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfaN267lI_Y

Almost a million views on this vid. Just saying. It's more than just the hardcore crowd that care about Rare IP's.
That video had more to do about Microsoft than it did about Rare's past titles. I watched it and added to your statistical proof not because I cared about Rare, because the link was placed in front of me.

So I would label that video more as "poke fun at Microsoft" than "the rare community is legion"
 

Chobel

Member
So what's your take on the OP? Do you think the XBO has a good lineup for the holidays?

I thought the thread is about sales, otherwise why the OP is mentioning the delay of UC4 and Zelda? If XB1 has a good lineup, then that won't change if UC4/Zelda comes this year or not.
 
Overall I don't think it's very likely, as other before have pointed out Xbox is MS's only "cool" brand and I think that does count for something. Also you brought something else up, I think the integration with windows 10 as a service could be far more "defining" than any holiday, although I think if MS wants 3rd parties to keep think it's a no brainier to port to the one they can't stay behind 2-1 like they could be right now. It's not enough to even just "win" the US, I think they really need to get a few more countries on their side because those are the massively growing markets.

You are making a really good point. The way MS treated non-english speaking countries at launch was just embarrassing. Germany and France are big enough, so we got a half-assed localization and meaningless local apps at launch. I still have my X1 set to english because Kinect works waay better than German, even though I have an accent.
TV integration was only available in the UK.
Little countries like Holland were called Tier-2 by MS and didn't get the X1 until later. OK a country like Holland only has around 20 million people, but they are still proud countries who have their own language and don't want to be insulted.
So here in Germany (biggest EU economy) MS lost 1:4 to Sony in sales and it doesn't seem to get better. The only reason I bought the X1 is because I have many US friends on Xbox, ever since I spent a year in Arkansas as an exchange student.
MS got lucky with me, because I use the X1 (combined with a VPN and DirectTV login of a US friend) to watch my Dallas Cowboys and Razorbacks via those apps. But all my friends have PS4's because nobody cares about NFL deals, ESPN or SlingBox.
Brady and Romo could walk into a restaurant over here and would not be recognized.
Only soccer is important in the EU, and Sony has been sponsoring the ChampionsLeague since PSX days.
As far as these holiday titles go, I think people will like them and think "whoa it's a cool game" but they won't spend 350€ on an X1 just to play them.
 

Docflem

Member
On what, hardware? Absolutely. Xbox as a whole? Maybe not. What they are losing on hardware can be made back up in a years subscription and a game or two.

I believe when they said that (I think Sony said something similar) they were talking about the launch price, I don't think they ever got to the point where even 400 dollars were profitable. Plus you're not counting in the amount of crazy bundles there were, I think at least one had 3 games in it right? At minimum each one of those bundled games should be considered an opportunity cost.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
I thought the thread is about sales, otherwise why the OP is mentioning the delay of UC4 and Zelda? If XB1 has a good lineup, then that won't change if UC4/Zelda comes this year or not.

I took the shine statement as simply the Xbox exclusives having enough room to do well/get a lot of attention. Not really just the system only.
 

DOWN

Banned
I hate how much I want Rise of the Tomb Raider, but not as much as I hate the deal. Not only did it get locked to the weaker system, but also its weaker last gen sibling, sounds like they've really hurt the potential. I have Xbox One, but I just don't want it there with the disadvantages so I'm going to weep with my backlog while I wait for them to announce the PS4 version. Halo 5 is it for me this Holiday with Xbox.
 

Chris1

Member
I believe when they said that (I think Sony said something similar) they were talking about the launch price, I don't think they ever got to the point where even 400 dollars were profitable. Plus you're not counting in the amount of crazy bundles there were, I think at least one had 3 games in it right? At minimum each one of those bundled games should be considered an opportunity cost.

By hardware I'm including the free bundled games too, they kinda come hand in hand. The XB1 at launch was breaking even/profiting (Source)

The xbox over the holiday isn't losing as much as some people might think. At $400 it's probably breaking even still without kinect, add in the $50 discounts and free games and they're probably looking at what... a loss of $80 per console sold? Not that much considering most of them would have bought another game aswell as XBL which would have helped recoup the losses and then some. Not to mention things like extra controllers, headset adapters, play and charge kits etc.
 

Feindflug

Member
Microsoft should just gollow Nintendo's lead. Focus on a brand new console. Hopefully this time, they won't sit on their laurels, eating donuts, watching Sony's stream mocking them and being caught off guard.


Edit: I also think Halo 5 won't move as much console as people think. Those on the fence who wanted xb1 and Halo would've already bought the MCC bundle.

So God of War 4 will not sell systems because those on the fence who want a PS4 and GoW will buy a PS4 next month for the GoW3 remaster...do you seriously believe that? because to me this sounds really dumb plus you have nothing to back all this theory up.

Two of my friends are waiting for Halo 5 to arrive to get an Xbone, well I was planning to do the same but I found a good deal and got one two months ago. You are overestimating remasters if you think that are system sellers, people want to see new interesting games to invest on these new machines not play the games that they already have in higher resolution.
 

Fox_Mulder

Rockefellers. Skull and Bones. Microsoft. Al Qaeda. A Cabal of Bankers. The melting point of steel. What do these things have in common? Wake up sheeple, the landfill wasn't even REAL!
By this way xbone will be at 199$ this holiday season.
 

Rolf NB

Member
lol -- exactly. Wow. Not sure why some are taking what the OP said in a straight up console war view.
Well because the OP makes a comparison relative to the competition. I could almost bold the whole thing, but ... here:
With the news of Zelda for Wii U not reaching it's 2015 goal for release and Uncharted 4 being delayed until 2016, both PS4 and Wii U both lost their big holiday exclusive game to next year, while Halo 5, Xbox One's big holiday exclusive is set to launch this year. With neither PS4 or Wii U having a big exclusive for the holiday, could this be the holiday season for the Xbox One to really shine?

... to which the answer is, it might be the last hurrah. Third party exclusives are over for them, nobody's going to sign further exclusive deals with the platform trajectories as they are. And first party is weaker than ever.
Whenever Sony is ready to drop the price for the first time, there'll be real trouble at Redmond.

If you still like Halo, enjoy I guess.
 

Elandyll

Banned
lol -- exactly. Wow. Not sure why some are taking what the OP said in a straight up console war view.
The OP made some huge assumptions about the competition imo.

The XB1's lineup (baring any delays) is pretty much a known quantity (and it does have a very solid holiday lineup, obviously), with the possible exception of a still unannounced GeoW collection.
Otoh thinking that neither Nintendo or Sony will have big AAAs or a price cut might be a bit of wishfull thinking on the OP's part.

In a vacuum, yes, the XB1 will "shine". But it's not in a vacuum. :)
 

Pachimari

Member
Microsoft have absolutely nothing of interest to me. Halo 5 looks killer and I love what I'm seeing and I want it but there's literally nothing else for me. My Quantum Break hype totally faded when they showed off the game at E3. The only other games I'm hoping for are a good Platinum game, and some Rare magic.
 

LifEndz

Member
With the right bundle MS could really dominate this holiday season. I was thinking of just going with one console this gen (justifying 100 bucks a year in online fees is kinda difficult), but resisting Halo 5 is going to be difficult. A slim x1 with Halo included for 299.99....I might have to do it even though halo is the only exclusive MS has that I really want to play.
 

Feindflug

Member
Well because the OP makes a comparison relative to the competition. I could almost bold the whole thing, but ... here:


... to which the answer is, it might be the last hurrah. Third party exclusives are over for them, nobody's going to sign further exclusive deals with the platform trajectories as they are. And first party is weaker than ever.
Whenever Sony is ready to drop the price for the first time, there'll be real trouble at Redmond.

If you still like Halo, enjoy I guess.

Is this a "Xbone is dead" and "Xbone only has Halo" post? lol.
 

Docflem

Member
By hardware I'm including the free bundled games too, they kinda come hand in hand. The XB1 at launch was breaking even/profiting (Source)

The xbox over the holiday isn't losing as much as some people might think. At $400 it's probably breaking even still without kinect, add in the $50 discounts and free games and they're probably looking at what... a loss of $80 per console sold? Not that much considering most of them would have bought another game aswell as XBL which would have helped recoup the losses and then some. Not to mention things like extra controllers, headset adapters, play and charge kits etc.

The actual quote in the article says that they are "looking" to break even and goes on to say like the 360 that they would get the price down as time goes on. It doesn't state that the 500$ price tag is profitable at launch. On top of that, we don't know how much taking the kinect out really saves. Finally even if it's an $80 loss, didn't they sell 2 million consoles at that price? A 160 million dollar loss isn't game breaking for MS but it's for sure not what their investors want to see. Now that is the standard price, if they cut a similar amount this holiday and sell the same amount that's a 320 million dollar loss for a "successful hoilday."

Note: Please let me know if my math is off here.
 

Not a Jellyfish

but I am a sheep
If they can launch a Halo that isn't broken they will have a big year.

Played it at PAX East, enjoyed it but there was some lag and just sitting at a black screen for minutes before respawning.
 

Chris1

Member
The actual quote in the article says that they are "looking" to break even and goes on to say like the 360 that they would get the price down as time goes on. It doesn't state that the 500$ price tag is profitable at launch. On top of that, we don't know how much taking the kinect out really saves. Finally even if it's an $80 loss, didn't they sell 2 million consoles at that price? A 160 million dollar loss isn't game breaking for MS but it's for sure not what their investors want to see. Now that is the standard price, if they cut a similar amount this holiday and sell the same amount that's a 320 million dollar loss for a "successful hoilday."

Note: Please let me know if my math is off here.
There's also this, which says the XB1 cost $471 to make at launch, but I don't think that's solid pricing and just what research firm speculates it cost to make. If that's accurate, taking out the kinect cost, the console would cost $396 to make right now.

Yeah, it is a lot of money just to lose on the hardware, and they are losing a lot of money on the console bundles but like I said, at $80 loss all it takes really is one year of xbl and another game, which considering all the big heavy hitters that came out (GTA, CoD, Halo MCC), they likely broke even per person buying a console that same month.. I guess you could view that as losing money too, since they aren't profiting as much as they could/should be due to the price cuts... I suppose it depends if you're a glass half full or half empty person.

The console alone, let alone the free games with it, is absolutely losing money, but the xbox one as a whole (including games, accessories, xbl) is likely profiting still despite the price cuts, just not profiting as much as they could/should be so the price cut isn't as bad as some people make out, if that makes sense.
 

p3tran

Banned
the seach function on gaf brought up this thread when searching for "gears of war xbox one",
so I guess I'll put this tweet here:

Last day of the shoot... One of the actors in a mocap suit!
#MotionCapture #Props #MarkerBalls @GearsofWar

CBJRYGxUUAAjozo.jpg

https://twitter.com/btjackfelling/status/581616777139908608
 
I hate how much I want Rise of the Tomb Raider, but not as much as I hate the deal. Not only did it get locked to the weaker system, but also its weaker last gen sibling, sounds like they've really hurt the potential. I have Xbox One, but I just don't want it there with the disadvantages so I'm going to weep with my backlog while I wait for them to announce the PS4 version. Halo 5 is it for me this Holiday with Xbox.
If it ends up being 1080pthen what will it matter waiting for the PS4 version?
 
If it ends up being 1080pthen what will it matter waiting for the PS4 version?

Has the PS4 version been confirmed?
I read that stuff alot "Oh I'll just wait for the PS4 definitife edition" like it will come out close to the Xbox launch.
Titanfall 1 never came to PS4 and the talk was the same.
I'd rather expect it to be like Ryse and DR3.
 
Has the PS4 version been confirmed?
I read that stuff alot "Oh I'll just wait for the PS4 definitife edition" like it will come out close to the Xbox launch.
Titanfall 1 never came to PS4 and the talk was the same.
I'd rather expect it to be like Ryse and DR3.

The "insiders" on here say it is coming to PS4. Also those were two new IPs and one IP is that heavily associated with Xbox.
 
Has the PS4 version been confirmed?
I read that stuff alot "Oh I'll just wait for the PS4 definitife edition" like it will come out close to the Xbox launch.
Titanfall 1 never came to PS4 and the talk was the same.
I'd rather expect it to be like Ryse and DR3.

Even Square and Crystal Dynamics aren't thick enough to sell off Tomb Raider to Microsoft for a whole game and ignore 20m+ PS4's and lord knows how many PC users.

In any case the deal is most definitely times as Phil noted himself
 
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