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[mil6es]

LOL. As someone from the uk this is the most amazing/disturbing thing ever! Sorry but bravo America for yet again providing the world with the Sufi-sarticrical best comic relief ever.

 

[ivysaur12]

Trump will attack Hillary as being unpopular with women because she defended Bill when he was sleeping around "for the sake of her career ". He'll work real hard to make women dislike Hillary and it will work better than most expect.

Hillary literally has a war chest of things that Trump has said, even this year, that have already proven far more salient in test groups than anything any Republicans have tried.

He obviously has no idea how to attack a female candidate. We saw that with Megyn Kelly and now with Hillary with the "woman card".

There was a Rasmussen poll on Monday that put it at Trump 41, Clinton 39.

That's because they're Rasmussen and that's what they do? Do you remember 2012?

 

[Brian Griffin]

I hope Hillary and her team have learned from watching the GOP race and don't fuck it up against Trump. He's a master manipulator of the weak minded.

 

[gamechanger87]

I hope Hillary and her team have learned from watching the GOP race and don't fuck it up against Trump. He's a master manipulator of the weak minded.

I think the big takeaway is that you really can't attack him. He's the Teflon Don. Attack ads work against traditional politicians whom don't like to respond to stuff.

Seriously, attack ads don't work against him. If she tries to join him in the muck, she will get crushed by him.

 

[Brinbe]

I think the big takeaway is that you really can't attack him. He's the Teflon Don. Attack ads work against traditional politicians whom don't like to respond to stuff.

Seriously, attack ads don't work against him. If she tries to join him in the muck, she will get crushed by him.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

YES, CRUSHED.

Lotta grade A pundits in this thread.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

YES, CRUSHED.

Lotta grade A pundits in this thread.

People reading so much into Trumps ability to galvanize a vocal yet relatively small group of old, white racists. His success says a lot more about what a mess the GOP is in than it does about his chances on the national scene.

 

[Sianos]

You know, I felt like I was exposed enough to the alt-right mentality by default on other forums I visit that I really didn't need to go out of my way to research it, or jump into explicitly political discussions with them on their home turf. Lately, I've been paying closer attention.

There appears to be a massive groundswell of white males in desperate need of a king to make up for their self-diagnosed emasculation by liberalism. Trump isn't the perfect fit for the average neo-reactionary jackass, but his authoritarian bent and dick-swinging charisma are a snug fit for these types.

Very well said. I don't think this is the last we'll see of them, either.

 

[gamechanger87]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

YES, CRUSHED.

Lotta grade A pundits in this thread.

Can you pull up the unfavorable/favorable chart for Hillary?

It's not like Hillary is loved by the electorate.

http://www.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/16229NBCWSJApril2016Poll.pdf

An April Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that Mrs. Clinton’s favorability rating among independents had dropped 15 percentage points in the last four months alone. That poll found that 20% of independents viewed Mrs. Clinton positively, compared with 62% who viewed her negatively—a gap of 42 percentage points. In January, that same poll found her with a positive rating of 35% and a negative rating of 54%—a gap of fewer than 20 percentage points.

A year earlier, four months before she launched her presidential campaign, that gap stood at just four percentage points—35% positive to 39% negative.

Mrs. Clinton’s favorability ratings have also declined among Democrats. Her positive rating among Democrats dropped to 63% last month from 71% in January, while her negative rating rose six points to 20%. Last April, when she first announced she was running for president, 76% of Democrats viewed her positively while just 8% viewed her negatively.

While sinking favorability ratings are common for presidential candidates as voters learn more about them, the striking decline in independents’ view of Mrs. Clinton is indicative of the unexpected popularity of Mr. Sanders, who served in the Senate as an independent before running for president as a Democrat. The Vermont senator is far more popular among independents and has ramped up his criticism of Mrs. Clinton in recent months, even as his path to winning the nomination looks increasingly narrow. Mr. Sanders in recent days began laying off hundreds of field staffers but has said he plans to stay in the race until the July Democratic convention.

The nosedive Mrs. Clinton’s rating has taken among independents suggests she has a lot of work to do to win those voters over in a general election. Her campaign has already begun fretting about the lasting damage Mr. Sanders’s criticism of her could have in the general election, and has publicly encouraged the senator to rally his supporters behind her for the sake of the Democratic Party.

Already, Republican front-runner Donald Trump has begun crediting some of his attacks on Mrs. Clinton to her rival. At a rally in Indiana on Monday, the real-estate developer criticized Mrs. Clinton’s “bad judgment” and thanked Mr. Sanders for similarly targeting her.

In the April poll, just 3% of Republicans viewed the former secretary of state favorably, while 91% viewed her negatively.

Mr. Trump isn’t well-liked by independents, either. Just 19% of independents viewed him favorably in the latest poll, while 67% had a negative opinion. Democrats are nearly universally opposed to him, with 97% saying they had a negative view of him. And Republicans are split, 42%-42%, on whether they hold a positive or negative view of the New York businessman.

I'm not commenting on their GE matchup, I'm commenting on the fact that when you start dropping attack ads on him he comes back swinging. Every candidate that has gotten in the muck with him gets hit right back. He has no filter. Hillary has enough skeletons in her closet that she should not want to go there and let him bring himself down.

 

[Brian Griffin]

I think the big takeaway is that you really can't attack him. He's the Teflon Don. Attack ads work against traditional politicians whom don't like to respond to stuff.

Seriously, attack ads don't work against him. If she tries to join him in the muck, she will get crushed by him.

Yep, something Rubio was embarrassingly late on realizing. I think some attack ads can work but they need to be using his own words against him so he has no response other than to double down on what he has said.

 

[Anton Sugar]

EDIT: lol wrong thread

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Can you pull up the unfavorable/favorable chart for Hillary?

It's not like Hillary is loved by the electorate.

I'm not commenting on their GE matchup, I'm commenting on the fact that when you start dropping attack ads on him he comes back swinging. Every candidate that has gotten in the muck with him gets hit right back. He has no filter. Hillary has enough skeletons in her closet that she should not want to go there and let him bring himself down.

The few times he's shown some vulnerability are when he's gone after women like Megyn Kelly or Carly. He's not some political genius. He's a loudmouth moron. It's just that this strategy works when you only have to appeal to 50% of wack job republicans.

 

[Ithil]

Drumpf will attack Hillary as being unpopular with women because she defended Bill when he was sleeping around "for the sake of her career ". He'll work real hard to make women dislike Hillary and it will work better than most expect.

Well golly it's a good thing there's nothing in existence that can be used against Trump on the subject of women.

 

[SynthFetish]

Listen, and understand! Donald Trump is out there! He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until America is made Great Again.

This is perfect, thanks.

 

[gamechanger87]

The few times he's shown some vulnerability are when he's gone after women like Megyn Kelly or Carly. He's not some political genius. He's a loudmouth moron. It's just that this strategy works when you only have to appeal to 50% of wack job republicans.

Correct to a point.

What I'm more interested in is how turnout shakes out. These races end up being about turnout.

What is more galvanizing to voters: Voting for a complete shake up of the system or voting for a candidate out of fear of what the other will do.

 

[AmyS]

With his landslide victory in Indiana. At this point I think it's inevitable he'll be the nominee. The games the GOP will play may be fun, but he's going to have the delegates by the convention.

Anyone see a "path to victory" for anyone else at this point?

 

[Brinbe]

Well, that shit works against the likes of Ted fucking Cruz, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio because they're terrible candidates and they have no room to attack him on policy. Of course he's gonna win the GOP primary because he speaks their primary voter's language. He's the perfect candidate for that wackjob base.

That doesn't mean that shit will fly against Hillary, no matter her own foibles and unfavorables. We already saw what happened when he said that shit about her being lucky she's a woman. That shit doesn't fly. And people will coalesce around her.

And this implication from many people that women and minority voters and everyone else with a modicum of intelligence is just gonna magically forget everything Trump's said in the primary is pretty insulting.

There's already plenty of evidence that Trump's already driving massive turnout and voter registration in places like FL, CO, NV.
http://thehill.com/latino/277824-hispanics-in-swing-states-create-daunting-electoral-map-for-gop

Anyway, this piece of Vox lays things out well in terms of exploring why Trump's success in the Primary doesn't mean shit in the general.
http://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11580772/indiana-results-trump

Donald Trump's ongoing evisceration of the Republican Party establishment has earned him a reputation in some circles as a Teflon-coated magician, a politician whose mind meld with the American people is so strong it makes him immune to attack.

He's not.

Of course, liberals should not be complacent about Trump's ability to win a general election. Winning a primary is harder than winning a general, and anyone who's secured either major party's nomination is just a bit of good luck away from taking the White House. But the antidote to complacency is not panic.

The fact is that Trump has triumphed in Republican Party primaries because the Republican Party is incapable of mounting effective resistance to him, not because effective resistance is impossible. Their strategies have failed because highlighting his real weaknesses cuts against too much of what the GOP base believes.

The plain, obvious truth is that Trump is running a racist campaign based on an unimpressive record in business and bad public policy ideas. The Republican Party can't mount this argument in an effective way because to do so involves stepping over too many GOP taboos.

There are three main problems with Donald Trump as a candidate for national office, none of which can be effectively exploited by the Republican Party but all of which can be exploited by Democrats. The problems are:

Trump is a racist.
Trump's business record is unimpressive and ethically dodgy.
Trump's policy ideas are terrible.
There is simply no reason to believe that this is what the American people are looking for.

The problem Republicans have is that is that these flaws are not flaws a Republican Party politician can effectively articulate to an audience of Republican Party primary voters.

Republican Party primary voters think that white people being shamed for racism is a bigger problem than white people doing racist stuff.
Republican Party elites are ideologically committed to the defense of inherited wealth and opposed to the regulation of business in the public interest.
Republican Party elites essentially share Trump's least popular and most obviously ridiculous policy idea — an enormous tax cut for the rich — so they can't criticize it.

But nobody should mistake Trump's success in winning Republican primaries for unprecedented political genius, or the failure of his GOP rivals' attacks for invulnerability.

Trump has massive, obvious weaknesses as a candidate. He is a mediocre businessman who's become rich largely thanks to having a rich father and in part thanks to ethically questionable business practices. He is a longtime peddler of racist rhetoric and political concepts. He favors an enormous, unpopular tax cut for himself and people like him, and he is closely identified with immigration policy ideas that most Americans reject. His Republican Party rivals have been unable to leverage these points against him either because ideological conservatives are incapable of criticizing them or because rank-and-file Republicans embrace ideas that the general public does not.

That's why Republicans haven't stopped Trump so far, and it's why they won't be able to stop him in the future. To beat him, Republicans either need to replace their voters or adjust GOP ideological orthodoxy. They can't do the former and won't do the latter, so they have lost.

Democrats are not constrained in these ways, so they can — and likely will — stop Trump and keep him out of the White House.

 

[Jacob]

LOL. As someone from the uk this is the most amazing/disturbing thing ever! Sorry but bravo America for yet again providing the world with the Sufi-sarticrical best comic relief ever.

Worse than Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002 or Geert Wilders right now?

 

[Box of Kittens]

Anyway, this piece of Vox lays things out well in terms of exploring why Trump's success in the Primary doesn't mean shit in the general.
http://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11580772/indiana-results-trump

People keep trying to extrapolate from the Republican primary electorate to the electorate as a whole. That's just not how it works.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Rasmussen, huh?

Yep.

That's because they're Rasmussen and that's what they do? Do you remember 2012?

Do you remember 2008? Whatever, I can see from the new thread about that poll that people are happy to just dismiss it, so I'll just wait for another poll by another pollster saying the same thing. I'm sure one will be along shortly.

 

[boiled goose]

Yep.



Do you remember 2008? Whatever, I can see from the new thread about that poll that people are happy to just dismiss it, so I'll just wait for another poll by another pollster saying the same thing. I'm sure one will be along shortly.

The only real thing people can maybe take from this poll is the trend. Same poll had him losing previously.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Yep.



Do you remember 2008? Whatever, I can see from the new thread about that poll that people are happy to just dismiss it, so I'll just wait for another poll by another pollster saying the same thing. I'm sure one will be along shortly.

Here's a crazy idea, look at the aggregate.

If you're gonna spend 6 months hoping for every single poll to show one thing, in a time when outlier polls get SIGNIFICANT media attention, then you're gonna be having a lot of sleepless nights.

 

[boiled goose]

Here's a crazy idea, look at the aggregate.

If you're gonna spend 6 months hoping for every single poll to show one thing, in a time when outlier polls get SIGNIFICANT media attention, then you're gonna be having a lot of sleepless nights.

Scary thing is that popular vote means squat. All that needs to happen for Hillary to lose is to lose in like 5 key states.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Scary thing is that popular vote means squat. All that needs to happen for Hillary to lose is to lose in like 5 key states.

We've had polls which show Utah competitive if Trump is on the ticket. Mormons despise him.

 

[blackflag]

We've had polls which show Utah competitive if Trump is on the ticket. Mormons despise him.

Those will change a lot now that he is the nominee. It will be interesting to see if it holds though.

 

[boiled goose]

We've had polls which show Utah competitive if Trump is on the ticket. Mormons despise him.

Watch Trump pick Ben Carson as VP.
Checks the minority slot. Checks the religious conservative slot.

He can now turn around and brush off racist accusation attacks.

And now you worry.

 

[ivysaur12]

We've had polls which show Utah competitive if Trump is on the ticket. Mormons despise him.

Or how about Trump being up by 3 in key swing state Mississippi?

Watch Trump pick Ben Carson as VP.
Checks the minority slot. Checks the religious conservative slot.

He can now turn around and brush off racist accusation attacks.

And now you worry.

I cannot believe we have another 6 months of liberal chicken littleing.

 

[Aaronrules380]

Watch Trump pick Ben Carson as VP.
Checks the minority slot. Checks the religious conservative slot.

He can now turn around and brush off racist accusation attacks.

And now you worry.

Not happening since Carson is heading the committee to appoint the vp for trump

 

[NIGHT-]

Well at least Trump is better than the other repubs and Bernie...

Hillary is still 100x better than any of these clowns

How is trump better than Bernie? And how is Hillary better than Bernie?

 

[Crimson_Fate]

Watch Trump pick Ben Carson as VP.
Checks the minority slot. Checks the religious conservative slot.

He can now turn around and brush off racist accusation attacks.

And now you worry.

Nope.. I can see him picking Condi though. that takes care of 2 checks.

 

[Cranster]

Watch Trump pick Ben Carson as VP.
Checks the minority slot. Checks the religious conservative slot.

He can now turn around and brush off racist accusation attacks.

And now you worry.

Except Ben Carson was pretty much bribed.

 

[Aaronrules380]

How is trump better than Bernie? And how is Hillary better than Bernie?

Trump isn't better than Bernie. Hilary is better than Betnie because I can reasonably believe she'll be able to actually accomplish anything as president

 

[DietRob]

I cannot believe we have another 6 months of liberal chicken littleing.

I think there is some legitimacy to being concerned. This primary season has taught me not to handwave off Trump. Going into the GE with the mindset that he has absolutely no shot is a mistake.

 

[Crimson_Fate]

Trump isn't better than Bernie. Hilary is better than Betnie because I can reasonably believe she'll be able to actually accomplish anything as president

Then we'll welcome you to the Trump Train after Hillary is indicted.

 

[tearsintherain]

Trump picks Kanye West as his running mate, the two of them tag team WWE Summer Superslam, the election is in the bag.

 

[Cranster]

Then we'll welcome you to the Trump Train after Hillary is indicted.

Sure...

 

[MisterR]

I think the big takeaway is that you really can't attack him. He's the Teflon Don. Attack ads work against traditional politicians whom don't like to respond to stuff.

Seriously, attack ads don't work against him. If she tries to join him in the muck, she will get crushed by him.

They don't work against him with the Republican base. It's hard to attack a guy on his racist and sexist positions, with a racist and sexist voting block. That shit doesn't fly nearly as well in a national election. This county is moderate for the most part. Trump just said out loud what the GOP has been saying with dog whistles. It's a different audience now.

 

[boiled goose]

Except Ben Carson was pretty much bribed.

I don't see how that is an "except"

 

[NIGHT-]

Trump isn't better than Bernie. Hilary is better than Betnie because I can reasonably believe she'll be able to actually accomplish anything as president

What do you expect her to accomplish exactly? She isn't nearly as progressive as Bernie, and she doesn't plan to try to be. It'll be a very boring term. I mean it's fine if you don't want progression, but she's certainly not better.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I think there is some legitimacy to being concerned. This primary season has taught me not to handwave off Trump. Going into the GE with the mindset that he has absolutely no shot is a mistake.

There's a difference between taking it seriously and going "oh my god oh my god look at this dubious shit poll showing Trump winning"

 

[ivysaur12]

I think there is some legitimacy to being concerned. This primary season has taught me not to handwave off Trump. Going into the GE with the mindset that he has absolutely no shot is a mistake.

You can take someone seriously without screaming DOOM!!

I think Trump has about a 10-15% chance of winning the election. I want that to be 0. I am taking him very seriously, and will do everything in my power to make sure he's not the president, but posting Rasmussen polls and treating them like gospel and then saying "lol, told you all!" and then making it seem that Trump will have an easy ride to the presidency isn't productive because it's not where the race is today.

 

[GrantDaNasty]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTjMl03HVuo

"He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He will not stop until America is Made Great Again."

Nothing stops the Donald.

 

[Jacob]

Scary thing is that popular vote means squat. All that needs to happen for Hillary to lose is to lose in like 5 key states.

Hillary has a lot more states that she can afford to lose than Trump did. The electoral college is an even safer bet for Dems than the popular vote is.

Not saying that people should be complacent and just ignore Trump but for the love of god, can we keep things in context?

 

[Crimson_Fate]

Trump just mentioned that he is willing to spend 1 billion of his own money during this campaign.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/15/politics/donald-trump-billions-campaign-spending/

 

[A Link to the Past]

Too many people are thinking a Democrat win is now a foregone conclusion. A lot of them probably were the ones previously saying that Trump had no chance of getting the nomination. It 'ain't over 'till the fat lady sings.

We were ignorant of Trump's appeal, but all of the data now shows that Trump doesn't really have a strong approach going into the GE. He is losing in most demographic categories, and in some, losing -extremely- hard. He doesn't have the Hispanic vote, and frankly, the gimmick of electing a businessman is a lot less significant to a lot of people than electing a woman. Trump's gonna do better than Mondale for sure, but I expect the election will end with a notable gap in the popular vote between Trump and Hillary (in Hillary's favor obviously).

 

[johnsmith]

Trump just mentioned that he is willing to spend 1 billion of his own money during this campaign.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/15/politics/donald-trump-billions-campaign-spending/

Trump is a beacon of honesty and I have no reason to doubt this.

 

[Euron]

Many here are laughing at the possibility of Trump becoming president and saying there's no chance. People said the same thing about the primary. Downplaying his ability is exactly how he could get elected.

Are things in Hillary's favor? Yes. But that could change. The Democrats need to unite against Trump and bring Republicans on board. If we operate under the assumption that Trump has no shot, we are in turn giving him a shot. We cannot rest until we know for sure that Trump has lost, and we need both sides to fight against him.

 

[RPGCrazied]

Trump just mentioned that he is willing to spend 1 billion of his own money during this campaign.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/15/politics/donald-trump-billions-campaign-spending/

Let him. I hope he liquidates all of his earnings, and then loses badly and have nothing left.

 

[Neoweee]

Trump just mentioned that he is willing to spend 1 billion of his own money during this campaign.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/15/politics/donald-trump-billions-campaign-spending/

He probably doesn't have a billion dollars without selling a whole bunch of real estate, which I doubt will be happening.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

"Nobody gave trump a chance in the primary!" is going to be the go-to narrative now, even the data has pointed to him being the republican front runner for like over 6 months now. That same data is why he has no chance in a general election. People need to stop acting like this translates directly over from the primary to the general. They are wholly different beasts.

 

[Cranster]

"Nobody gave trump a chance in the primary!" is going to be the go-to narrative now, even the data has pointed to him being the republican front runner for like over 6 months now. That same data is why he has no chance in a general election. People need to stop acting like this translates directly over from the primary to the general. They are wholly different beasts.

Yup, the narrative that everyone thought Trump would not be the GOP frontrunner is false. We all knew the GOP base were idiotic enough to let it happen.