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Wkd BO 02•05-07•16 - no Chinese or Martians = FAIL, Caesar! 4 Coens, TFA hits 2B WW

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kswiston

Member
Seems like it'll be a battle for 5th place between Revenant and TFA. EDIT: Unless How To Be Single is a thing too, but I have no sense of what that'll do.

It's Valentine's day weekend and How to be Single is coming out in 3200 theatres. It will make much more than the $5M required to top Star Wars this weekend. Boxoffice.com's projection from last Friday was $20M during the 4-day.

Deadpool, Zoolander, How to be Single, and Kung Fu Panda 3 will be the top 4. Hail, Caesar!, TFA, and The Revenant will have to fight it out for the remaining top 5 spot. Hail, Caesar! will likely grab that spot if it's drop is 50% or less.

EDIT: Star Wars is still in my local IMAX. I am not sure how common that is elsewhere in North America, but all of those theatres are going to Deadpool as of Thursday night.
 

Angel_DvA

Member
Creed has passed the 1,5m spectators in ~ 2 weeks in France, it's more than the last Rocky movie ( ~1m ) with almost no marketing, it's impressive...

( In France, they count the numbers of tickets sold and not how much money it makes... )
 

LQX

Member
Wow, had no idea there was a The 5th Wave movie. The books are actually good and Chloe Moretz is fucking hot so cant wait to see it.
 

kswiston

Member
So with Deadpool's obvious success, and Fifty Shades last year, I suppose this weekend is well established as a good weekend for movie releases.

Kung Fu Panda 3 passed $120M in China. However, the real story is the fact that Stephen Chow's latest film, The Mermaid, has been out for 5 days and has already made around $190M in China. It will more than likely be China's first film to $400M, and possibly the first to $500M.
 

Ridley327

Member
So with Deadpool's obvious success, and Fifty Shades last year, I suppose this weekend is well established as a good weekend for movie releases.

Kung Fu Panda 3 passed $120M in China. However, the real story is the fact that Stephen Chow's latest film, The Mermaid, has been out for 5 days and has already made around $190M in China. It will more than likely be China's first film to $400M, and possibly the first to $500M.

IIRC, Chow has broken a lot of records over his career, some of them his own. He's practically the Hong Kong equivalent of Spielberg.
 

kswiston

Member
IIRC, Chow has broken a lot of records over his career, some of them his own. He's practically the Hong Kong equivalent of Spielberg.

Ya, Journey to the West was the first local film to hit $200M in China 3 years ago, and a few of his films held records in Hong Kong. However, the Chinese Box Office is now large enough that we are seeing grosses that would be impressive for a domestic movie. $190M in 5 days would have been a domestic record until the Dark Knight came out.

At this rate, we will see a movie in China beat TFA's $925M+ single territory gross before we see another domestic film do the same.
 
He'll direct the Chinese version

DOUBLE IT UP

js8fQ50.gif
 

kswiston

Member
So Deadpool is also blowing up internationally. Should have little trouble clearing $500M if it continues to play well for the next week or two, even without China.
 
Deadline's probably overestimating a little, although I saw Variety tweet "Deadpool to score 100 mil" and then reported a Friday number of just over 30 mil including the Thursday previews.

So I dunno.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Deadline's probably overestimating a little, although I saw Variety tweet "Deadpool to score 100 mil" and then reported a Friday number of just over 30 mil including the Thursday previews.

So I dunno.

Deadline's always been pretty bullish in their projections, true.

But honestly, a 4-day gross of $100+ million for Deadpool, I didn't see that coming, I thought it would have an opening weekend closer to the original F4. Big success for FOX.
 
I would be so OK with that. He can definitely do big fantasy action films.

Yeah, I wasn't really being flip. I mean, yeah, from a solely mercenary standpoint it would be a good call for China box-office, but I like Chow's movies, and I think setting him loose on Star Wars with a 200 million dollar budget would be fucking fun as hell.
 

Mimosa97

Member
Creed's foreign numbers seems pathetic, overseas audiences really are racist

+1.5M people have already seen Creed in France even though the movie didn't get any marketing push and had to rely on WOM. It beat last Rocky's numbers.

Any non-blockbuster movie with 1M+ entries in France is considered a success.

Stop making dumb posts.
 

Exodust

Banned
Yeah, I wasn't really being flip. I mean, yeah, from a solely mercenary standpoint it would be a good call for China box-office, but I like Chow's movies, and I think setting him loose on Star Wars with a 200 million dollar budget would be fucking fun as hell.

Yeah, Chow on SW would mean a fun as fuck Star Wars flick at the very least. So i wouldn't be against it.
 

Matt_

World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
It was stupid to open three comedys on one weekend but even so I'm a little surprised that Zoolander is doing so badly

Great news for Deadpool of course. Hope the weekend isnt too frontloaded
can't wait to see it tuesday
 

Exodust

Banned
It was stupid to open three comedys on one weekend but even so I'm a little surprised that Zoolander is doing so badly

Did Anchorman 2 or Dumb & Dumber Too perform that well anyway? I don't seem to remember and those would definitely be "bigger" comedies popularity wise.

I don't know about you guys, but after most very late sequels to comedies turning out horrendous while Ben Stiller not exactly being much of a draw lately could have easily contributed to nobody giving much of a shit. As anecdotal as this statement will be, I don't think I've seen as much talk or "excitement" for 2oolander as much as I have the other two cash grabs I mentioned.
 

duckroll

Member
Yeah, I wasn't really being flip. I mean, yeah, from a solely mercenary standpoint it would be a good call for China box-office, but I like Chow's movies, and I think setting him loose on Star Wars with a 200 million dollar budget would be fucking fun as hell.

Chow would maybe work if you wanted a maybe good version of the prequels in terms of style, but would be a horrible fit for the nostalgia chasing "return to form" the new trilogy wants to be. Chow's style isn't grounded at all and he abuses the shit out of cg with no consideration for quality of effects. It's understandable for the industry he works in tho.
 

kswiston

Member
Deadline's probably overestimating a little, although I saw Variety tweet "Deadpool to score 100 mil" and then reported a Friday number of just over 30 mil including the Thursday previews.

So I dunno.

Rth is saying $48M on Friday, which would be close to $35M without previews. If that holds up $100M in 3 days will basically be impossible to miss.
 

kswiston

Member
For those interested in numbers that aren't Deadpool focused:


Friday Studio Estimates:

1) Deadpool - $47.5M
2) How to be Single - $5.25M
3) Zoolander 2 - $4.2M
4) Kung Fu Panda 3 - $3.9M - $78M total
5) Hail, Caesar! - $1.5M - $16M total
6) The Revenant - $1.3M - $153M total
7) Star Wars The Force Awakens - $1.2M - $910M total


- Zoolander will finish the weekend in 4th place.

- The Revenant will pass Fury Road this weekend to claim the #20 spot in 2015's domestic top 20.

- It's hard to call #5 for this weekend right now, as I expect Star Wars to have better gains today, and Sunday is a bit of a wildcard with Valentines Day. Star Wars might hang on to one more Top 5 finish.
 
For those interested in numbers that aren't Deadpool focused:


Friday Studio Estimates:
- It's hard to call #5 for this weekend right now, as I expect Star Wars to have better gains today, and Sunday is a bit of a wildcard with Valentines Day. Star Wars might hang on to one more Top 5 finish.

I dunno, I bet it misses the top 5. Lost quite a few screens and I'm wondering if the repeat viewers that apparently make up a fairly large chunk of its audience have finally moved off to the brighter, shinier distractions.

Also, like I said over in the Deadpool thread: We didn't even have to wait til March for the game to get good. 2016 is gonna be nuts.
 

Anth0ny

Member
why the fuck did they release Zoolander 2 the same weekend as Deadpool


so so dumb. I have so many friends that love Zoolander and want to watch 2... but not over Deadpool.
 
why the fuck did they release Zoolander 2 the same weekend as Deadpool

Betting against Deadpool isn't the worst of bets. People are acting like success on this level was some sort of foregone conclusion instead of the big surprise it actually is. A comedic R-Rated X-Men spinoff starring Ryan Reynolds? Why not pit your star-studded PG-13 comedy against that for Valentine's Day?
 

Son Of D

Member
So why is Zoolander 2 underperforming? Is it a case of being too late for a sequel? Deadpool competition far too strong? Or were the trailers just bad?
 

kswiston

Member
What are the odds of Deadpool outgrossing X-men Apocalypse domestically? That would be a really weird result for Fox.

Pretty good I think. X-Men Origins legs for Deadpool is still going to be $230Mish by this point, which is basically a top end gross for an X-Film.

Deadpool will need poor legs, and/or Apocalypse will have to out gross the previous X-Films domestically.

So why is Zoolander 2 underperforming? Is it a case of being too late for a sequel? Deadpool competition far too strong? Or were the trailers just bad?

Have any of these 15-30 year later direct sequels to comedies people liked at one point done particularly well? We're talking about the sequel to a film that originally made $45M domestic, but was pretty popular on DVD in the early 2000s.
 

Anth0ny

Member
Betting against Deadpool isn't the worst of bets. People are acting like success on this level was some sort of foregone conclusion instead of the big surprise it actually is. A comedic R-Rated X-Men spinoff starring Ryan Reynolds? Why not pit your star-studded PG-13 comedy against that for Valentine's Day?

I feel like they both go after the same audience. There is absolutely no need to compete. There's plenty of weekends out there with ZERO competition. Even if they expected Deadpool to do poorly, why risk going up against a Marvel comic book adaptation? Those films are basically the kings of the box office at this point.

Zoolander 2 is no 50 Shades. It doesn't need to be a Valentines weekend release.
 

Chamber

love on your sleeve
What are the odds of Deadpool outgrossing X-men Apocalypse domestically? That would be a really weird result for Fox.

Probably a lock since Apocalypse has immediate competition from Alice Through the Looking Glass and TMNT a week later.
 
I feel like they both go after the same audience.

I don't think they do at all. The audience for Zoolander doesn't read as one that cannibalizes the audience for X-Men.

A violent/crude action comedy versus a silly/goofy spoof movie.

It wasn't the worst of bets.

Honestly, the bigger question would be why go back to the Zoolander well in the first place.
 
Well damn. Deadpool cleaning house. Much bigger than I expected it to be. I was thinking maybe $150m final domestic, but it will be there real fast after this weekend. Insane.

Get ready for a flood of newcomers or lurkers in next week's thread. And many trying to do crow threads or posts.

Maybe the title can play on two words that Bobby hates. "Deadpool is no jobber, as Zoolander bombas!"
 

Vice

Member
So why is Zoolander 2 underperforming? Is it a case of being too late for a sequel? Deadpool competition far too strong? Or were the trailers just bad?
There's a comedy with more positive buzz and better marketing. Being a sequel 15(?) years after the original probably hurt though.
 

Anth0ny

Member
I don't think they do at all. The audience for Zoolander doesn't read as one that cannibalizes the audience for X-Men.

A violent/crude action comedy versus a silly/goofy spoof movie.

It wasn't the worst of bets.

Honestly, the bigger question would be why go back to the Zoolander well in the first place.

anecdotal evidence, but all of my 25 year old male friends want to watch both, and every single one chose deadpool over zoolander this weekend (with the exception of myself and one other friend who watched both).

again, I still don't understand why you would choose to go up against a marvel movie when you could easily... NOT go up against a marvel movie.
 

Chamber

love on your sleeve
I would wait until we have more than 1 data point to call it a lock.

Go big or go home friend.

Deadpool isn't going to collapse with virtually no competition and positive word of mouth and X-Men isn't going to blow up in the most stacked period of the year with relatively little hype behind it.
 

duckroll

Member
I wonder what Fox's reaction will be when their $58 million dollar R-rated comedy by a first time director outgrosses their actual X-men tentpole PG-13 blockbuster with a $200 million (I'm guessing?) budget directed by their darling Bryan Singer.
 

3N16MA

Banned
I wonder what Fox's reaction will be when their $58 million dollar R-rated comedy by a first time director outgrosses their actual X-men tentpole PG-13 blockbuster with a $200 million (I'm guessing?) budget directed by their darling Bryan Singer.

Deadpool becomes Iron Man in the FOX universe. He will carry the other slackers to new heights.
 
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